Russia invades Ukraine

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

How long until their position on the war changes? Basic psychology suggests they won't change their opinion on Ukraine and Ukrainians, but there could be some reassessment of the necessity of the war

They are already at the point of no return with mobilization. The time to bail was back in March when it was obvious the plan was not going to succeed.

This ends in one of two ways at this point as Russia has zero chance of winning:

Russians overthrowing the government.

Or a nuclear war.

And considering I am acquainted with a number of Russians who live in Calgary and have lived here for 20 years, and they fully believe Russia is winning, I expect option 2 to be the only natural progression.

And I am talking 100K+ highly educated scholars here.

[ripTDR]

Originally Posted by Cappy

Russia is certainly moving towards a war of attrition, which I suppose was plan B after the initial invasion failed.

Sit a few hundred thousand conscripts on the front line, make Ukraine pay for each inch until the world "forgets" about them.

Will it work? who knows.

No, It will not work

[Jason14h]

Originally Posted by ripTDR

No, It will not work

Don't bet on that. As recessions hit and people have to worry about themselves more and more this will become less and less on people's minds

And people and countries will spend more of their money at home then giving to Ukraine.

The world won't forget, but it may become part of the day to day after long enough

[ripTDR]

Originally Posted by Jason14h

Don't bet on that. As recessions hit and people have to worry about themselves more and more this will become less and less on people's minds

And people and countries will spend more of their money at home then giving to Ukraine.

The world won't forget, but it may become part of the day to day after long enough

Whatever, you said earlier that the world will forget, I said it no, now you change. I get what you are saying but as a lurker here and a globally connected citizen, I really think that something like this will not go away. I think there is a capacity for everyday people to focus on domestic issues and the potential for nuclear war

[CroFlames]

People don't lose interest in white people wars, as bad as that sounds.

Syria is a pretty serious ongoing conflict and you rarely hear about it.

Ukraine will not leave the news cycle until its over.

[Kasi]

Originally Posted by Firebot

They are already at the point of no return with mobilization. The time to bail was back in March when it was obvious the plan was not going to succeed.

This ends in one of two ways at this point as Russia has zero chance of winning:

Russians overthrowing the government.

Or a nuclear war.

And considering I am acquainted with a number of Russians who live in Calgary and have lived here for 20 years, and they fully believe Russia is winning, I expect option 2 to be the only natural progression.

And I am talking 100K+ highly educated scholars here.

How do they fully believe Russia is winning? I guess maybe they only read Telegram or Rybar or something but you’d have to be pretty stupid to not look at more information sources.

[chemgear]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1573337663561777155

[peter12]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

People don't lose interest in white people wars, as bad as that sounds.

Syria is a pretty serious ongoing conflict and you rarely hear about it.

Ukraine will not leave the news cycle until its over.

The Russian-Ukrainian War is a no-holds brawl between two near-peer countries at a scale we haven't seen since WW2. I suspect the casualties and costs will be crushing once it is all over.

It dwarfs what is going on in Syria by every measure. Not to mention that Russia has nuclear weapons and a battlefield doctrine that supports the use of a tactical weapon if Ukraine starts to push into Crimea. This would initiate a level of tension never seen before in human history.

As an aside, you have to feel for the Russian conscripts being pushed into a fight with little training and increasingly substandard equipment to face a foe that is becoming increasingly better armed with Western equipment and is now the most experienced army in the world.

[Elkyiv]

Originally Posted by peter12

As an aside, you have to feel for the Russian conscripts being pushed into a fight with little training and increasingly substandard equipment

No, you don't.

Instead of fighting the Ukrainians, they can spend that energy on fighting their own leadership.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by Elkyiv

No, you don't.

Instead of fighting the Ukrainians, they can spend that energy on fighting their own leadership.

I do and I am staunchly pro-Ukraine. You can hold two thoughts in your head at the same time. Nuance is important. This war is a bloodbath and your average Russian being called up is probably poor, uneducated, and doesn't have too much choice in the matter.

They are basically going to the front like lambs to the slaughter. They will be butchered and so they should be. Ukraine must win.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by peter12

The Russian-Ukrainian War is a no-holds brawl between two near-peer countries at a scale we haven't seen since WW2. I suspect the casualties and costs will be crushing once it is all over.

It dwarfs what is going on in Syria by every measure. Not to mention that Russia has nuclear weapons and a battlefield doctrine that supports the use of a tactical weapon if Ukraine starts to push into Crimea. This would initiate a level of tension never seen before in human history.

As an aside, you have to feel for the Russian conscripts being pushed into a fight with little training and increasingly substandard equipment to face a foe that is becoming increasingly better armed with Western equipment and is now the most experienced army in the world.

600,000 people have been killed in the Syrian conflict.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

600,000 people have been killed in the Syrian conflict.

I never said it wasn't serious, but you can understand why world attention is being drawn exclusively to the Russian-Ukrainian War, right?

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Elkyiv

No, you don't.

Instead of fighting the Ukrainians, they can spend that energy on fighting their own leadership.

I would be a coward in the situation of the Russian population. Keep my head down, say nothing, try to escape with family if possible.

Plebs don’t cause regime change.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by peter12

I never said it wasn't serious, but you can understand why world attention is being drawn exclusively to the Russian-Ukrainian War, right?

So would you like to amend your statement about it dwarfing the conflict in Syria by every measure?

[peter12]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

So would you like to amend your statement about it dwarfing the conflict in Syria by every measure?

Will it make you feel better?

[Elkyiv]

Originally Posted by GGG

I would be a coward in the situation of the Russian population. Keep my head down, say nothing, try to escape with family if possible.

Plebs don’t cause regime change.

Ukrainians have done it twice.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by GGG

I would be a coward in the situation of the Russian population. Keep my head down, say nothing, try to escape with family if possible.

Plebs don’t cause regime change.

110%. So much tough guy internet keyboard warrior tough talk in this thread it's hilarious. 95% of regular people don't have the balls to be the ones to stand up to Russian militia, police, security enforcers in a protest to try and get the required hundreds of thousands / MILLIONS of people to rise up and join the kind of mass protest truly needed. Furthermore, Russia has adequately demonstrated, throughout history long ago and recently, that they will absolutely tolerate precisely zero protest or political / regime change engagement so you better pray you aren't the first one to stand up, or you may just end up like that lady in the video a couple pages back.

So no, everyone sitting around clamouring that Russian people need to stand up, I doubt any of you would do anything first of all in the same position and second of all and importantly- what- precisely are you expecting Larry the plumber or Suzie the librarian to do against these properly trained and armed security personnel that have actual direct orders to cause as much harm as fast as possible against you?

If a mass protest starts to erupt, I 1,000,000% expect Russia to start unloading on its own crowds. Without doubt. It'll be a slaughterfest, and there will be exactly zero protests thereafter. Let's get a bit real here people. Are you going to go run up and stage a protest, or get the absolute #### outta there? This is not a tough decision when the weight of the fragility of life is concerned.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by peter12

Will it make you feel better?

I much prefer it when you are banned from the board and the adults can discuss things.

[calumniate]

Originally Posted by peter12

I never said it wasn't serious

Classic post something and reverse it.. here we go!!

[Kasi]

Also I don’t think the options now are just Putins regime falling or nuclear war. There is still plenty of possibility for a negotiated truce by Turkey or others. Plenty of dictatorships have lost wars and not been ousted immediately.