Russia invades Ukraine

[CroFlames]

I kinda feel like the invading force shouldn't be protected under the conventions around surrender.

Like, the Ukrainian armed forces didn't ####ing ask you to come to Ukraine and cause death and destruction, why do they HAVE to accept your surrender now?

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

What would this mean, if true?

https://twitter.com/user/status/1569384417142906880

[starseed]

Russian volunteers are apparently refusing to be sent into combat in Ukraine. What forces they could send are apparently very poorly trained.

Either Putin is going to announce a full mobilization, or his resignation?

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[Firebot]

It means Kremlin itself is in danger.

You can't continue to fire your military generals and not expect the remaining ones to fend for themselves.

Also, the DPR is apparently in full panic mode, apparently Russian soldiers are retreating with the equipment they have leaving them to fend for themselves. Question is, where are they retreating to and who is making the order? Putin's orders are to take all of Donbas by September 15 let's remember and Putin is directly leading command right now.

We have world changing history in the making right now and the changes are happening much quicker then could ever be anticipated.

Lenin:"There are decades where nothing happens: and there are weeks where decades happens". This is one of those weeks.

[Fuzz]

If Putin pulls out, does Ukraine take the opportunity to take back Crimea?

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

If Putin pulls out, does Ukraine take the opportunity to take back Crimea?

Sure as #### hope so, they would be foolish not to push the matter.

Russia claimed it illegally.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

If Putin pulls out, does Ukraine take the opportunity to take back Crimea?

Russia would be in such shambles they can probably walk in without fire a shot.

[Kasi]

I doubt they invade Crimea. They will probably just blockade it and use it as leverage to negotiate a peace settlement.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

I kinda feel like the invading force shouldn't be protected under the conventions around surrender.

Like, the Ukrainian armed forces didn't ####ing ask you to come to Ukraine and cause death and destruction, why do they HAVE to accept your surrender now?

Surrenders are practical for both sides. Nobody wants to die fighting an unnecessary fight, and especially in this case, surrendering Russians can bring with them a nice pile of functioning weapons and ammo.

Originally Posted by Sidney Crosby's Hat

What would this mean, if true?

https://twitter.com/user/status/1569384417142906880

Some options that come to mind, not mutually exclusive:
- The Russian forces in Ukraine are in such disarray and the situation on their side is so chaotic that Russians don't know where to send fresh troops.
- The roads in Ukraine are a mess with troops going in different directions already and they need to wait to get things in order.
- Russian military, or at least some part of it, has decided it's not going to do this anymore.
- Russian military wants to wait and see how the situation develops. Which brings me to...

It's also worth noting that (at least in my eyes) the first public demands for Putins resignation (and even putting him on trial for high treason) have been out for at least a couple of days without an equally public crackdown. It's still pretty small scale, but it's out there.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/...gnation-a78768

In times when talk about regime change starts to circulate, it's quite typical for the military to go on a holding pattern, waiting to see which way the wind starts to blow.

I guess there's also the possibility that Putin fears a genuine uprising and would rather keep troops closer to home?

We also have to consider the possibility that Ukrainians are just making things up or claiming that some perfectly normal thing the Russians have been doing is something it's not.

[Street Pharmacist]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

That is something.



Perhaps the beginning of the end of his grip on power.

Can't remember which Russian expert said this, but they said was not really relevant because it's akin to the city Council of DC Demanding Biden resign. These are local civic politicians from what I read

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Kasi

I doubt they invade Crimea. They will probably just blockade it and use it as leverage to negotiate a peace settlement.

I hope not, I hope they try and take it back.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Can't remember which Russian expert said this, but they said was not really relevant because it's akin to the city Council of DC Demanding Biden resign. These are local civic politicians from what I read

Obviously they have no power, but the important part is that they've done it publicly. It's a direct challenge, and usually people don't do that if they don't think there's a chance others will join them. They might be wrong, but it does tell you something about the atmosphere in St. Petersburg and Moscow.

It also means some people don't think it's necessarily suicide to say this.

[Firebot]

Moscow Times reporting that Putin has left for his Sochi mansion and cancelled all meetings with his military staff.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Street Pharmacist

Can't remember which Russian expert said this, but they said was not really relevant because it's akin to the city Council of DC Demanding Biden resign. These are local civic politicians from what I read

I'd say it's pretty dang relevant if a politician at any level speaks out when you have ordinary citizens saying this:

Originally Posted by Pointman

I saw it in English -language sources but nothing in Russian yet and I don't dare to search "Putin resignation" in Russian.

[Firebot]

The Kherson surrender may be bigger then anticipated and looks like it may include all troops of both sides of the Dnipro. In other words the whole oblast. 25K+

Obviously nothing concrete until official but lots of crazy stuff on Twitter and Telegram in the past 24 hours and so far all the substantiated rumours and reports have proven to be true.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Firebot

The Kherson surrender may be bigger then anticipated and looks like it may include all troops of both sides of the Dnipro. In other words the whole oblast. 25K+

Obviously nothing concrete until official but lots of crazy stuff on Twitter and Telegram in the past 24 hours and so far all the substantiated rumours and reports have proven to be true.

To me it sounds like the troops know something is up and figure they'd rather surrender to the West than go back home to the uncertainty that awaits.

Isn't this exactly how the Red October started in 1917?

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Moscow Times reporting that Putin has left for his Sochi mansion and cancelled all meetings with his military staff.

That's interesting, considering Putin is supposed to be meeting Xi this week, correct?

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

To me it sounds like the troops know something is up and figure they'd rather surrender to the West than go back home to the uncertainty that awaits.

Isn't this exactly how the Red October started in 1917?

If the northern bank of Kherson surrenders, outside of the Dnipro itself there is nothing remaining to stop Ukraine forces from marching all the way to Crimea. When Russia invaded Ukraine they took Kherson with barely a fight, and had no reason to fortify the rear when they could solidify the northern bank.

You've just had the Kharkiv front totally collapse with inevitable encirclement and Kherson itself about to fall. They can't retreat back to Crimea as they will be killed as traitors.

It seems implausible from a tactical idea, but if the troops on the southern bank see the writing on the wall, if they can negotiate a surrender with immunity (for example) they would take this for sure.

[Kasi]

If they lose the whole Kherson force then yes the war is instantly over. This would mean Russia has lost the loyalty of their troops and the war can’t be sustained anymore.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by Kasi

If they lose the whole Kherson force then yes the war is instantly over. This would mean Russia has lost the loyalty of their troops and the war can’t be sustained anymore.

If the combat phase ends, it's still difficult to imagine Russia fully ending the war if they have no gains. I can see it just turning into a cold conflict with occasional skirmishes, bombings, and missiles being fired into Ukraine from Russia.

It will be good if the combat phase ends of course, but I doubt we are going to get back to normal any time soon unless the Putin regime falls and is replaced with something better.