Emergency Alert for Dangerous Persons

[Dion_Iggy_Kipper!!!]

https://www.rcmp-grc.gc.ca/en/news/2...d-melfort-rcmp

Reports of a possible sighting of Myles at back at James Smith Cree Nation.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

The obvious comparison is the US, they lock people up for far longer than we do and also have higher rates of reoffending, longer sentences while keeping society safer while the offender is locked up do not reduce but tend to increase the risk of reoffending on release

I don't agree the US is a reasonable natural experiment. Their system is so unbelievably broken that you can't compare it to any other country imo, because the other factors overwhelm.

If there were two US states with different sentencing guidelines or two Nordic countries or something like that you'd have something more valid, because the other variables would be more similar.

Again, nobody in this thread has been saying three strikes and you're out. 50 strikes I think you can make a case for longer sentencing.

And in the US if this guy got out and did this he probably does it with an assault rifle. So at least we have that going for us.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I don't agree the US is a reasonable natural experiment. Their system is so unbelievably broken that you can't compare it to any other country imo, because the other factors overwhelm.

If there were two US states with different sentencing guidelines or two Nordic countries or something like that you'd have something more valid, because the other variables would be more similar.

Again, nobody in this thread has been saying three strikes and you're out. 50 strikes I think you can make a case for longer sentencing.

And in the US if this guy got out and did this he probably does it with an assault rifle. So at least we have that going for us.

The US prison system is just as much a problem as the justice system. They've allowed it to become an exaggerated microcosm of all the USA's societal problems. With the levels of crime and gang activity going on in jail in the USA, any kind of large scale rehabilitation of prisoners is going to be impossible.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

I don't agree the US is a reasonable natural experiment. Their system is so unbelievably broken that you can't compare it to any other country imo, because the other factors overwhelm.

If there were two US states with different sentencing guidelines or two Nordic countries or something like that you'd have something more valid, because the other variables would be more similar.

Again, nobody in this thread has been saying three strikes and you're out. 50 strikes I think you can make a case for longer sentencing.

And in the US if this guy got out and did this he probably does it with an assault rifle. So at least we have that going for us.

The problem is nothing about his, or the thousands of other morons like him, previous behaviour suggested he would do this, nothing, in fact he doesnt fit any normal profile for a mass killer, does his record suggest he would continue to be a risk for low level violent crime if he continues drinking, of course, does his record suggest he might kill someone in a drunken fight, frankly yes that would be a possibility, but that's about it and there are thousands and thousands like him out there.

As a system you are trying to stop him smashing up his girlfriends car or punch out the cop that tries to arrest him afterwards, not assuming anyone like him could be a mass killer, that's the balance, he got a 4 year plus sentence for a drunken fight and punching out a cop, he served three years and then went to treatment, at this stage of his life he would get 2 or 3 year in jail for each act of drunken violent stupidity assuming like the rest of his crimes no one got seriously hurt

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by blankall

The US prison system is just as much a problem as the justice system. They've allowed it to become an exaggerated microcosm of all the USA's societal problems. With the levels of crime and gang activity going on in jail in the USA, any kind of large scale rehabilitation of prisoners is going to be impossible.

Don't know how it is in Alberta.. but in Ontario the jails are overcrowded and full of drugs and crime.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by blankall

The US prison system is just as much a problem as the justice system. They've allowed it to become an exaggerated microcosm of all the USA's societal problems. With the levels of crime and gang activity going on in jail in the USA, any kind of large scale rehabilitation of prisoners is going to be impossible.

Yeah - I'm definitely not suggesting using the US as any sort of role model for the change we need here. I actually think 3-7 more years all served in a healing lodge might have been the outcome that best serves everyone here.

As a society we could spend the money on creating a couple thousand healing lodge spaces for a lot more of the violent morons that AFC mentions. It'd probably save us money in the long run on everything from police to health care. And once in awhile it would prevent a tragedy like this.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

He wasn't 18 when he went in, and he had 59 convictions.

Also, I'm curious whether you have any statistical backup for the assertion that he would have been no safer on release with a longer sentence? I'd be very curious to whether any research has been done on that topic (eg a natural experiment across 2 different states with different sentencing guidelines or something like that).

It seems intuitive to me that if you kept him until 70 he would have been much less likely to commit new violent crime/go on a murderous rampage. Also if you kept him until 60, 50, and probably even 40. I dont know where the line is there, but I'd be interested in actual data.

The system objectively failed in a big way here - "meh, nothing could be done" doesn't seem like the right response to me.

Is there any correlation between longer jail sentences and safer countries?

Safe countries - like Iceland, Switzerland, Denmark, etc. - don't send people to jail forever. Heck in some of Scandanavian countries - you can go home at the end of the day from jail for lower sentences.

I don't know what the right answer is. But its sort of like the war on drugs where just throwing all kinds of punishment at people doesn't achieve the result you want. Its just window dressing to look like you are doing something.

[powderjunkie]

Shirley there are some statistics that could inform this discussion?

It doesn’t seem at all surprising that some individual’s criminal activity escalate over time, but it would be useful to know what rates we are talking about.

If 2% tend to ‘graduate’ to the next level of crime it’s a very different discussion than 20% or 50% or 80%


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Azure]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Paul Bernardo, who killed two people, was recently denied parole after serving 25 years. It took the parole board less than an hour to make their decision. Should this suspect be taken alive and found guilty of murdering 10 people you can be sure he will see similar treatment.

I'm really not sure what you're ranting about here. The system appears to be working.

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

About 500 Canadians a year are murdered, around 1.5 per 100,000, it is a rate that has been slightly dropping but basically stable for decades, obviously every one of those victims represents a tragedy but Canada is in truth a very safe place to live, most everyone on CP will never be affected by violent crime

I doubt that whatever you're trying to say here has any play in how the parole board or legal system makes their decision, so largely pointless to even bring up.

"I am sorry your mom got stabbed to death in her sleep, but since the overall murder rate in Canada is so low, we won't change a thing about how we deal with people who have 50+ previous incidents, and have threatened to murder people."

End of the day the parole board missed this one, but not sure if it is their fault. We had other posts on here where it was pointed out the parole board does at times not approve parole even after 25+ years of serving a prison sentence.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

The problem is nothing about his, or the thousands of other morons like him, previous behaviour suggested he would do this, nothing, in fact he doesnt fit any normal profile for a mass killer, does his record suggest he would continue to be a risk for low level violent crime if he continues drinking, of course, does his record suggest he might kill someone in a drunken fight, frankly yes that would be a possibility, but that's about it and there are thousands and thousands like him out there.

As a system you are trying to stop him smashing up his girlfriends car or punch out the cop that tries to arrest him afterwards, not assuming anyone like him could be a mass killer, that's the balance, he got a 4 year plus sentence for a drunken fight and punching out a cop, he served three years and then went to treatment, at this stage of his life he would get 2 or 3 year in jail for each act of drunken violent stupidity assuming like the rest of his crimes no one got seriously hurt

I'm sorry, but are you really saying there are thousands of other 'morons' out there that would stab people to death while they slept?

[Derek Sutton]

I believe AFC is referring to his actions prior to this in that there are 1000’s of released and rehabilitated criminals walking the streets.

My question is what is the magic number (short of mass murder) for people like this to be locked away for a long time. It certainly isn’t 59 charges, maybe 60? Or is it 100? Anyone with this many violent crimes and history of violence (prior to the killing spree) should not be allowed to freely walk the streets.

[DownInFlames]

Originally Posted by Azure

I doubt that whatever you're trying to say here has any play in how the parole board or legal system makes their decision, so largely pointless to even bring up.

"I am sorry your mom got stabbed to death in her sleep, but since the overall murder rate in Canada is so low, we won't change a thing about how we deal with people who have 50+ previous incidents, and have threatened to murder people."

End of the day the parole board missed this one, but not sure if it is their fault. We had other posts on here where it was pointed out the parole board does at times not approve parole even after 25+ years of serving a prison sentence.

He was released with conditions after he served 2/3 of his sentence, as is required by law. He breached those conditions and went back to jail. He was re-released after a few months. He was considered a moderate risk to reoffend. I doubt anyone thought that would entail multiple murders, more more likely he continued his pattern of drugs and assault, but we can’t say for sure.

[Azure]

Originally Posted by Derek Sutton

I believe AFC is referring to his actions prior to this in that there are 1000’s of released and rehabilitated criminals walking the streets.

My question is what is the magic number (short of mass murder) for people like this to be locked away for a long time. It certainly isn’t 59 charges, maybe 60? Or is it 100? Anyone with this many violent crimes and history of violence (prior to the killing spree) should not be allowed to freely walk the streets.

Not sure about locking him away for a long time, but I think with 59 convictions, including murder threats, if he violated his parole it should have been taken a lot more seriously.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Nah, you’re being obtuse on purpose. Either engage honestly or bark up another tree. Playing into whatever dumb back and forth you’re trying to drum up is not interesting to me.

It’s a philosophical question that asks at what point and under what conditions life in prison becomes worse or at least less moral than the death penalty. I’m fine with the conditions under which life in prison exists now and believe it’s far better than death, and am against the death penalty on a fundamental level.

I'm obtuse? Someone suggests locking up violent repeat criminals for life as a possibility but you can't understand why they aren't advocating for the death sentence and can't wrap your head around it? Like someone suggesting that life imprisonment is such an absurd stance you can't make sense of it and that they must automatically advocate for the death penalty then? Yeah, I'm obtuse.

I have no issue with you disagreeing with life in prison without parole, I disagree with it. But you're acting like you can't wrap your head around the argument simply because you disagree with it. That's not engaging in good faith discussion.

[DownInFlames]

Paging M Bates. M Bates to the white courtesy phone.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Azure

I'm sorry, but are you really saying there are thousands of other 'morons' out there that would stab people to death while they slept?

Obviously no, that is not what he is saying.

He is saying there are thousands of other morons out there with similar rap sheets, and nearly none of them go on murder sprees.


How many repeat any kind of violent crime is the relevant question, and maybe someone can dig up some stats. For sake of argument, let's say the odds for someone with his history were as follows:

A) 50% crime free rest of their life
B) 30% non-violent crimes
C) 19% semi-violent crimes that fall more into the drunken brawl/threats/punching holes in wall category*
D) 0.99% senseless/serious violence affecting innocent strangers
E) 0.01% murder+

* category C is pretty broad, but let's say that an innocent stranger isn't getting much more than a black eye, while a participating antagonist may get more seriously injured

I just don't know where the odds have to be to start throwing away the key on everybody that reaches a certain threshold...

[Azure]

How many people are out there who have 59+ previous convictions?

That is why I have an issue with AFC saying 'thousands of others like him', because I don't believe there are thousands of people with that many convictions.

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Azure

How many people are out there who have 59+ previous convictions?

That is why I have an issue with AFC saying 'thousands of others like him', because I don't believe there are thousands of people with that many convictions.

Probably a lot more than you think. A very high proportion of violent crime is carried out by a very small number of habitually violent men.

[powderjunkie]

Some general facts

https://www.justice.gc.ca/eng/rp-pr/...020/aug01.html

Recidivism in the Criminal Justice System

The prevalence of recidivism varies from 9% to 90% in the studies presented below. This is largely due to differences in how recidivism is defined. The narrower the scope of the definition, the lower the prevalence of recidivism. The findings also suggest that how a person progresses through the CJS has an impact on the likelihood they will re-offend. A person whose pathway through the CJS includes police, courts and corrections is at particular risk of re-offending. Other variables such as age, sex, and Indigenous identity also influence the likelihood of re-offending. Given that chronic offenders (five or more re-contacts) account for a large proportion of criminal incidents, understanding the factors related to recidivism could have an important impact on crime in Canada.

Recidivism of federal offenders is declining and new offences are less severe

According to a 2019 CSC study, 2 23% of a 2011/2012 cohort of federal offenders re-offended, 3 compared to 32% of offenders from a 2007/2008 cohort. Of Indigenous male offenders in the 2011/2012 cohort, 38% re-offended compared to 21% of non-Indigenous male offenders. For Indigenous women, 20% re-offended compared to 9% of non-Indigenous women offenders. In addition, 12% of the 2011/2012 cohort re-offended with a violent offence, 4 compared to 18% from the 2007/2008 cohort. Of those who re-offended, 60% were charged with a new offence of a lesser severity.


Saskatchewan: prevalence of re-contact with police higher after correctional involvement, especially among Indigenous people and youth

A 2016 study by Statistics Canada 9 examined re-contact 10 with the Saskatchewan CJS. The study used a population of 37,054 individuals who came into contact at least once with the police because they were accused of a crime in 2009/2010. The study found that the prevalence of re-contact varied based on a person’s pathway through the CJS. 11 Specifically, those whose first contact took them through the full justice system into correctional supervision—in custody or in the community—were found to be particularly at risk of re-contact; just under three-quarters (73%) had re-contact with police for a new offence. In comparison, close to two-thirds (64%) of those whose first contact involved the police only and approximately half (51%) of those whose first contact ended in the court system, had a re-contact with police for a new offence.

For youth whose first contact only involved the police, re-contact was proportionally lower when compared to adults (58% versus 66%). However, over six in ten (61%) youth whose first pathway ended in the court system, had at least one re-contact with police, compared to adults (50%). Re-contact was even more pronounced among youth whose first contact took them through correctional services, where 84% had at least one subsequent contact with police following their correctional involvement, compared to 70% for adults.

Results also showed that Indigenous adults had significantly higher prevalence of re-contact with police following their correctional involvement (80%) than non-Indigenous adults (57%). This was even more pronounced for Indigenous youth with 90% having re-contact following their correctional involvement (compared to 79% of non-Indigenous youth).

Similar to the Nova Scotia findings noted above, this study also found that a smaller proportion of offenders, specifically chronic offenders (21%; n=7,800), were responsible for a high proportion of CJS contact (57%) in Saskatchewan over three years.


Ontario: recidivism is declining for offenders who served a jail sentence of 6 months or more

In 2019, the Ministry of the Solicitor General of the Government of Ontario 15 published a study on recidivism 16 among offenders sentenced to provincial custody. From 2001/2002 to 2015/2016, the proportion of offenders who served a jail sentence 17 of six months or more that re-offended decreased from 55% to 37%. The proportion of offenders under community supervision that re-offended was stable between 21% and 23% (see Chart 1 18, 19).

The study also found that the proportion of offenders who re-offend has been consistently lower for individuals in community supervision than those who served a jail sentence of six months or more (Chart 1).

I'll dig around and see if I can find any more data on chronic offenders

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by Azure

How many people are out there who have 59+ previous convictions?

That is why I have an issue with AFC saying 'thousands of others like him', because I don't believe there are thousands of people with that many convictions.

Keep in mind that 59+ convictions doesn't mean 59 incidents. You can get dozen of charges during a single arrest.

https://calgary.ctvnews.ca/police-la...nses-1.6018941

29 charges laid against this one person in Calgary for example.