2022/2023 Trade Speculation and Rumours

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Oil Stain

Billionaire team owner complains that guys at the top are getting too big a piece of the pie.

That's some amazing lack of self awareness.

If anything NHL stars are still underpaid relative to their contributions.

The fact that a guy like Blake Coleman makes $5 million per year while guys like Huberdeau/Gaudreau only make twice as much is pretty nutty. He's not half the player, and he doesn't sell half the tickets that those guys do.

The law of supply and demand suggests all players are paid what the GM's value them to be worth in respect to each other.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

The law of supply and demand suggests all players are paid what the GM's value them to be worth in respect to each other.

Assuming a perfectly liquid market where there's a large supply of interchangeable players and you can buy them just for cash when you want them.

But in fact the market isn't perfectly liquid because of the draft and reserve lists, the players aren't interchangeable, and the only players available just for cash are those who happen to be free agents at the moment.

This makes things a lot tougher for GMs. It leads to things like the Neal fiasco, where Treliving desperately needed a RW who could score goals and there was only one candidate on the UFA market.

It also puts downward pressure on the salaries of top players, because you'd rather not have any player take up so big a chunk of the cap that he becomes effectively untradeable.

[Yikes]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Teach a man to fish...

The dig was light, but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to identify the sharp uptake in posts by this account as likely the result of you flipping accounts. Also, I previously had you ignored and I don't do that unless it's something VILE so you may have deserved it.

Poor baby,

[Yikes]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

your comment made me look at the last time he posted, back in February.
seemed to have just wanted to be a #### disturber last time.

Poor baby II,

[Sandman]

Yikes.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Assuming a perfectly liquid market where there's a large supply of interchangeable players and you can buy them just for cash when you want them.

But in fact the market isn't perfectly liquid because of the draft and reserve lists, the players aren't interchangeable, and the only players available just for cash are those who happen to be free agents at the moment.

This makes things a lot tougher for GMs. It leads to things like the Neal fiasco, where Treliving desperately needed a RW who could score goals and there was only one candidate on the UFA market.

It also puts downward pressure on the salaries of top players, because you'd rather not have any player take up so big a chunk of the cap that he becomes effectively untradeable.

Why assume a large supply?

The law of supply and demand suggests that when the supply is low, the demand will be greater, which perfectly explains why Neal got his contract. Demand was high, supply was low.

[Goriders]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Why assume a large supply?

The law of supply and demand suggests that when the supply is low, the demand will be greater, which perfectly explains why Neal got his contract. Demand was high, supply was low.

James Neal is the answer on an economics exam.

[Hockey_Ninja]

The Habs just signed Kirby Dach (4x3.4 AVV)

https://twitter.com/user/status/1567497976204992512

https://twitter.com/user/status/1567501707143159808

[Harry Lime]

Dach is one of those players where the JFresh doesn't tell the whole story. I think that he's a good change of scenery bounceback candidate. This could end up a really good number for the Habs.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

Dach is one of those players where the JFresh doesn't tell the whole story. I think that he's a good change of scenery bounceback candidate. This could end up a really good number for the Habs.

he could also be a bust

[Toonage]

Habs look dangerous on offence, a lot less so defensively and in goal.

[Harry Lime]

Originally Posted by dino7c

he could also be a bust

he could also be a boat

[Loyal and True]

So what trades do you guys think will be made by teams to get cap compliant?

I was looking at CapFriendly but it gets messy when you factor in the LTIR that teams like Montreal, Vegas, etc have. Not all those teams are forced to dump salary, but many teams must be feeling the pressure soon.

It looks like only 5 teams have significant cap room to add player salary from teams that are trying to dump salary before the season starts. They would be:

Arizona
Buffalo
Anaheim
Detroit
Chicago

Everyone else is pretty tight once you sign RFAs and fill out the depth roster spots #21 or possibly #22.

I am not sure how many teams are actively trying to dump salary right now. My guess would be:

Edmonton
Toronto
Vancouver(?)
Boston(?)
Other teams(??)

I think Yzerman is going to get Puljujarvi from Holland in Edmonton (for a 2nd round pick - EDIT maybe 3rd round since Detroit will be picking high). I am sure Holland would prefer to dump Foegel but I don't know if there will be any takers with 2 yrs left.

What do you think will likely happen around the league?

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Loyal and True

So what trades do you guys think will be made by teams to get cap compliant?

I was looking at CapFriendly but it gets messy when you factor in the LTIR that teams like Montreal, Vegas, etc have. Not all those teams are forced to dump salary, but many teams must be feeling the pressure soon.

It looks like only 5 teams have significant cap room to add player salary from teams that are trying to dump salary before the season starts. They would be:

Arizona
Buffalo
Anaheim
Detroit
Chicago

Everyone else is pretty tight once you sign RFAs and fill out the depth roster spots #21 or possibly #22.

I am not sure how many teams are actively trying to dump salary right now. My guess would be:

Edmonton
Toronto
Vancouver(?)
Boston(?)
Other teams(??)

I think Yzerman is going to get Puljujarvi from Holland in Edmonton (for a 2nd round pick - EDIT maybe 3rd round since Detroit will be picking high). I am sure Holland would prefer to dump Foegel but I don't know if there will be any takers with 2 yrs left.

What do you think will likely happen around the league?

I think this list is pretty bang on. Ottawa has cap space but it gets tight next year. I could see them being interested in a hockey trade more so than a cap dump though.

Puljujarvi might be most likely to be traded by the Oilers. Unless they can dump Foegele or they trade Barrie. I doubt they get fair value for Puljujarvi or Barrie. Puljujarvi is maybe the only Oiler who expected goals % is good away from McDavid. Literally ever other Oiler than gets shifts with McDavid has less than 50% expected goals % away from McDavid. Getting a 3rd for him hurts

Leaf - they have nobody they can really dump that doesn't hurt the team and Sandin is not signed yet. Kerfoot might make the most sense.

Is the 2nd but out window still open? I could see the Bruins getting under with a buy out if they can make a trade.

Stars could go over if Robertson gets big money

Carolina is another team to watch. They have tons of cap when guys go on LTIR but Patches should be back before the season is over. Not sure if Gardiner is done though.

I would think there would be some trades coming soon. Some teams are in a bad spot right now. Oilers have 11 forwards.

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Originally Posted by Loyal and True

So what trades do you guys think will be made by teams to get cap compliant?

I was looking at CapFriendly but it gets messy when you factor in the LTIR that teams like Montreal, Vegas, etc have. Not all those teams are forced to dump salary, but many teams must be feeling the pressure soon.

It looks like only 5 teams have significant cap room to add player salary from teams that are trying to dump salary before the season starts. They would be:

Arizona
Buffalo
Anaheim
Detroit
Chicago

Everyone else is pretty tight once you sign RFAs and fill out the depth roster spots #21 or possibly #22.

I am not sure how many teams are actively trying to dump salary right now. My guess would be:

Edmonton
Toronto
Vancouver(?)
Boston(?)
Other teams(??)

I think Yzerman is going to get Puljujarvi from Holland in Edmonton (for a 2nd round pick - EDIT maybe 3rd round since Detroit will be picking high). I am sure Holland would prefer to dump Foegel but I don't know if there will be any takers with 2 yrs left.

What do you think will likely happen around the league?

I've been wondering about this myself.

Vegas and Montreal are actually okay. They have enough going to LTIR to make them cap compliant. Montreal has a full roster, Vegas needs to sign Hague and add a 7th d-man.

Edmonton is boned. They need to shed 2 million just to add 2 minimum salary players. Every team knows this so Holland is over a barrel. Puljujarvi leaving would help money wise, but then they'd need 3 league minimum players to fill out their roster. Which is fine.

Toronto isn't much better unless they have a player going to LTIR no one is aware of. They need to shed $2.5M just to sign Sandin. They have lots of forwards, so trading Kerfoot or Engvall accomplishes this.

Vancouver is okay. If the players currently on injured reserve come off, they have a full roster and Ferland on LTIR puts them below the cap.

Boston is weird. 24 one way contracts and $2.2 M over the cap. Trading Foligno or DeBrusk solves that. Foligno would probably cost them something to trade, while DeBrusk may be a sought after player. Maybe Matt Grzelcyk could be traded? Just because his money lines up with their current cap overage.

Florida isn't in a great spot either. It's like they forgot they had $6.5M in dead cap with this year. They need to lose about $5 M if they want to run with a 23 man roster. Trading Hörnqvist accomplishes that.

Carolina is okay until Pacioretty comes back.

Philadelphia might be in tough unless Ellis is still out.

Washington has room until (if?) Backstrom comes back.

There's not a lot of time until the start of the season and it seems to me there's a few teams who HAVE to move money and really no one who HAS to take on money. Those who have to move money are in for a rough ride me thinks. Which is good, because the Oilers and Leafs fall into this category.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Why assume a large supply?

Because basic microeconomics, which we were talking about here, makes the base assumption that the goods being traded are not unique. It is of very little value in understanding situations like this one.

The law of supply and demand suggests that when the supply is low, the demand will be greater,

No, it suggests nothing of the kind. In general, high demand drives prices up and encourages people to try to increase supply, and low demand does the opposite. But the supply of top-level hockey players is not responsive to fluctuations in demand over the course of a single year. It takes several years to turn a raw young athlete into a pro.

Then, when a specific team needs a player for a specific role, that GM will never get precisely what he wants; he has to make multiple tradeoffs to find the nearest substitute for his ideal player that happens to be available on the market and willing to sign at a price he can afford.

James Neal wasn't the RW the Flames wanted. But all the RWs who fit their requirements were already under contract to other teams, so they had to make do with the best substitute they could find. As it turned out, that substitute wasn't good enough.

which perfectly explains why Neal got his contract. Demand was high, supply was low.

Supply for any given player is always low. The situation is immensely more complicated than your simplistic summary.

[MrMike]

Boston has some players on LTIR, I think Marchand will be out for quite a large chunk of the beginning of the season.

[Oil Stain]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

Dach is one of those players where the JFresh doesn't tell the whole story. I think that he's a good change of scenery bounceback candidate. This could end up a really good number for the Habs.

The Jfresh never tells the whole story.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

Dach is one of those players where the JFresh doesn't tell the whole story. I think that he's a good change of scenery bounceback candidate. This could end up a really good number for the Habs.

Bounce back to what?
His career high is 23 points in 64 games.

[dammage79]

He's 21. Played on a very very terrible Blackhawks team. Who knows what will happen with him but there's definitely upside there. Habs I think made a fairly calculated gamble with the contract. Won't bite them in the butt and buying in on penny's on the dollar if he breaks out. Going to be a big season for the Habs youth.