American Politics 3.0 - Back to Brunch

[Mull]

Originally Posted by photon

RNC member states the obvious; that they have to gerrymander to win.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1564459685909970944

I don't understand that map. 270 is the amount of elector votes needed to win the Presidency.

The Presidency is unaffected by gerrymandering - no?

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Mull

Ya, I don't agree with a lot of this when it comes to coordination to support a primary candidate in the party establishment this far out - e,g, Trump 2016

Trump was an outlier and a really good reminder for the RNC to keep their eye on their prize. I find it humorous that you think any political party does not have a strategy to win an election and much of it is focused on the candidate. They are not going to allow a ridiculous process like the primaries derail years of work and having a nutbar candidate step in a scuttle an opportunity to forward their agenda. Trump was a very good reminder to both parties to keep the eye on the prize. Fortunately for Republicans Trump had no agenda concerns of his own, other than playing golf and self-serving, which made him the perfect useful idiot to run interference while the real politicos forwarded the RNC agenda.

I also think you're confused about how vetting works

Educate me.

[nfotiu]

Originally Posted by Mull

I don't understand that map. 270 is the amount of elector votes needed to win the Presidency.

The Presidency is unaffected by gerrymandering - no?

I read through his thread and feel dumber for it.

He goes through an elaborate example to show why a very conservative candidate would lose in RCV because the majority would prefer not to have a very conservative candidate. He frames this like it is obviously a bad thing

I think the Independent redistricting commission was just thrown in by the random talking point generator.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1553796379310379009

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Mull

I don't understand that map. 270 is the amount of elector votes needed to win the Presidency.

The Presidency is unaffected by gerrymandering - no?

There appears to be a lot you don't understand. The Presidency has little power when it comes to passing law and controlling the agenda of the nation. Congress controls both. If that map were how representation shook out, conservatism in this country would be dead. The Democrats would own both the House and Senate and control aspects of passing laws. It wouldn't matter if a Republican were the President, the organs of making law would be controlled by the Democrats.

[Mull]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

There appears to be a lot you don't understand. The Presidency has little power when it comes to passing law and controlling the agenda of the nation. Congress controls both. If that map were how representation shook out, conservatism in this country would be dead. The Democrats would own both the House and Senate and control aspects of passing laws. It wouldn't matter if a Republican were the President, the organs of making law would be controlled by the Democrats.

... the map in the tweet is electoral votes for the president... not house votes... hence my comment. I don't think you actually clicked the link in your rush to respond to me.

Gerrymandering has no impact on the senate either btw.

This on the other hand, explains it

Originally Posted by nfotiu

I read through his thread and feel dumber for it.

He goes through an elaborate example to show why a very conservative candidate would lose in RCV because the majority would prefer not to have a very conservative candidate. He frames this like it is obviously a bad thing

I think the Independent redistricting commission was just thrown in by the random talking point generator.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1553796379310379009

[Lanny_McDonald]

^^^ I read that thread. Didn't make much sense other than worrying about how conservative people are, which is not representative of the country as a whole. That's the way conservatives are. They don't give a #### about anything else except forwarding their agenda and forcing their way of living down everyone else's throat. It's freedom until you do something they don't believe in.

[MoneyGuy]

Originally Posted by activeStick

https://twitter.com/user/status/1564718273702363147

If he ever gets to prison general population he’ll find out how mean people can be.

[Mull]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

^^^ I read that thread. Didn't make much sense other than worrying about how conservative people are, which is not representative of the country as a whole. That's the way conservatives are. They don't give a #### about anything else except forwarding their agenda and forcing their way of living down everyone else's throat. It's freedom until you do something they don't believe in.

So what the hell was with this response then?

If you read it you knew the tweet had the electoral collage map shaded and showed a democrat sweep of the presidential race - which has nothing to do with Gerrymanding.

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

There appears to be a lot you don't understand. The Presidency has little power when it comes to passing law and controlling the agenda of the nation. Congress controls both. If that map were how representation shook out, conservatism in this country would be dead. The Democrats would own both the House and Senate and control aspects of passing laws. It wouldn't matter if a Republican were the President, the organs of making law would be controlled by the Democrats.

[Mull]

Originally Posted by MoneyGuy

If he ever gets to prison general population he’ll find out how mean people can be.

I wonder what is the "best possible" outcome we could hope for here.

For example, I think it is "pretty much impossible" Trump sees jail time.

Therefore my best possible outcome would be criminal charges against Trump, with one of his kids or kids spouses in a jail cell for related or unrelated charges.

I think I might be shooting the moon however.

[flylock shox]

I think the odds Trump sees jail time are vanishingly small.



I think the best plausible outcome is that he becomes politically toxic to the point the GOP stops promoting/defending him, and he gradually becomes politically marginalized. That could actually happen here as more details come out about the content of the documents he withheld, his efforts to resist returning those documents, and any evidence that those documents were passed on to other parties.



I don't expect the MAGA crowd to ever accept that Trump is "bad", but they may well come to the view that he's now too old, maybe losing his marbles a bit, and that he's no longer fit to be president even if he once was the greatest thing since sliced white bread.

[photon]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1565102965341372416

[AltaGuy]

Originally Posted by Mull

So what the hell was with this response then?

If you read it you knew the tweet had the electoral collage map shaded and showed a democrat sweep of the presidential race - which has nothing to do with Gerrymanding.

Not super important, but one of the (many) nefarious plots hatched by the GOP has been to suggest a change to the way electoral votes are allocated in many states. Currently, only Nebraska and Maine have some electoral votes chosen by congressional district (and two "at large"). But if more states adopted that system, all of a sudden gerrymandering would be critical for presidential elections too.

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by Mull

I wonder what is the "best possible" outcome we could hope for here.

For the country? Trump not getting charged, getting the Republican nomination for 2024, and losing. If Trump is removed from contention, someone who's just as extreme will get nominated and probably have a better chance of winning.

[AltaGuy]

Originally Posted by opendoor

For the country? Trump not getting charged, getting the Republican nomination for 2024, and losing. If Trump is removed from contention, someone who's just as extreme will get nominated and probably have a better chance of winning.

Or, Trump turns on the GOP and runs as a third party candidate, milking donors, and making the party candidate a lame duck.

[Mull]

Originally Posted by opendoor

For the country? Trump not getting charged, getting the Republican nomination for 2024, and losing. If Trump is removed from contention, someone who's just as extreme will get nominated and probably have a better chance of winning.

Oh I disagree with this. Based on the evidence presented, and my degree from the prestigious Arm Chair Legal University, Trump needs to get charged for the good of the country.



Yes, outrage, but better then letting him get away with it

[Senator Clay Davis]

Now this means nothing as far as the midterms, but still wonderful to see Caribou Barbie eating another massive L.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1565128162681421824

[Mull]

Originally Posted by Senator Clay Davis

Now this means nothing as far as the midterms, but still wonderful to see Caribou Barbie eating another massive L.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1565128162681421824

Why doesn’t this mean anything for mid terms? Doesn’t this mean there could be a large systemic error in the current polling and there is a possible hidden blue wave coming? The 3 polls on Wikipedia for this election were favouring republicans

I mean…. Alaska voted blue!

[photon]

"The purported justification for the initiation of this criminal probe was the alleged discovery of sensitive information contained within the 15 boxes of Presidential records," Trump's lawyers wrote. "But this 'discovery' was to be fully anticipated given the very nature of Presidential records. Simply put, the notion that Presidential records would contain sensitive information should have never been cause for alarm."

https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/31/polit...ter/index.html

As expected it's gone full circle from "I didn't do anything I'm be persecuted" to "I declassified them" to "the documents were planted by the FBI" to "I did it but it's ok for me to do it."

[MegaErtz]

Originally Posted by Mull

Why doesn’t this mean anything for mid terms? Doesn’t this mean there could be a large systemic error in the current polling and there is a possible hidden blue wave coming? The 3 polls on Wikipedia for this election were favouring republicans

I mean…. Alaska voted blue!

Republicans would have won this seat easily had the system not been changed to a ranked ballot for the first time. Begich will wipe the floor with this woman in November once all the people that voted for him with their first choice and left the rest of the ballot blank realize what they’d done. This was over 20% of Begich as a first choice voters.

[Mull]

Originally Posted by MegaErtz

Republicans would have won this seat easily had the system not been changed to a ranked ballot for the first time. Begich will wipe the floor with this woman in November once all the people that voted for him with their first choice and left the rest of the ballot blank realize what they’d done. This was over 20% of Begich as a first choice voters.

Ah well poop