08-31-2022, 07:42 AM
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#41
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Flamesfan05
Fair contract for his numbers last year
Question is can he do it again? He is 24 so why not?
It’s a decent gamble but they didn’t really have to do it one year in advance. They must have liked him a lot more than the Flames did with Mangiapane and Kylington.
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It's not though. It's a fair number for someone that consistently puts up those kind of numbers, or has been on a clear trajectory to that point. Giving a player a 7 year, $50M contract for one good season, out of nowhere, at the age of 24, is a bad decision. Full stop. He may become a star, which is great, but it was still a bad contract because the risk/reward is so heavily skewed to the negative.
A 2 or 3 year deal, in the $4-5M range is fair for both - and even that is a lot, IMO. If he is truly a 70 point guy, then there will be a $50M contract waiting for him. But for now, it is unnecessary risk for Buffalo.
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08-31-2022, 07:47 AM
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#42
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Acerbic Cyberbully
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: back in Chilliwack
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tony-soprano
Interesting, met this kid after he scored an ot winner against the Flames. He has some family connections to the city here.
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Yeah, his dad grew up in Calgary. His sister was my age and we hung out in the same circles.
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08-31-2022, 07:48 AM
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#43
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Pent-up
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Plutanamo Bay.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
It's not though. It's a fair number for someone that consistently puts up those kind of numbers, or has been on a clear trajectory to that point. Giving a player a 7 year, $50M contract for one good season, out of nowhere, at the age of 24, is a bad decision. Full stop. He may become a star, which is great, but it was still a bad contract because the risk/reward is so heavily skewed to the negative.
A 2 or 3 year deal, in the $4-5M range is fair for both - and even that is a lot, IMO. If he is truly a 70 point guy, then there will be a $50M contract waiting for him. But for now, it is unnecessary risk for Buffalo.
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Yearly shooting percentage:
5.5
6.5
8.3
15
Sure it’s progression… but that’s quite the jump to hang your hat on. You know who else scored at 15% last season? ….OVI!
This contract is beyond stupid, but not surprising from the team that did the same thing after Skinner jumped multiple percentage points in a career best year.
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08-31-2022, 08:03 AM
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#44
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Scroopy Noopers
Yearly shooting percentage:
5.5
6.5
8.3
15
Sure it’s progression… but that’s quite the jump to hang your hat on. You know who else scored at 15% last season? ….OVI!
This contract is beyond stupid, but not surprising from the team that did the same thing after Skinner jumped multiple percentage points in a career best year.
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And that's the thing - IMO, Buffalo has a fear of losing its players. They have an inferiority complex that manifests itself in these premature contract ejaculations.
"Look, we have a new star, and we signed him long term! Don't be dissing Buffalo, baby!!"
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08-31-2022, 08:29 AM
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#45
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Pent-up
Join Date: Mar 2018
Location: Plutanamo Bay.
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
And that's the thing - IMO, Buffalo has a fear of losing its players. They have an inferiority complex that manifests itself in these premature contract ejaculations.
"Look, we have a new star, and we signed him long term! Don't be dissing Buffalo, baby!!"
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I just looked and Skinner scored at 14.9% that year!
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08-31-2022, 08:33 AM
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#46
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#1 Goaltender
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Disgusting.
Nowhere close to worth that contract even if he replicates last season, let alone surpasses it.
His defense is absolutely non-existent and his offense is HIGHLY unlikely to continue. No idea how the GM could look at his numbers this year and think that's the player he is, not the one we've seen every other year of his career.
His defense needs to improve remarkably and his offense needs to at minimum remain the same for this contract to be anywhere worth it, let alone a "steal".
I would much rather Kadri's contract that takes him to retirement over Thompson's because I know he'll at least live up to it for a few years. Thompson will be lucky to not look back on last season as a career year.
Good for Thompson, but yikes.
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08-31-2022, 08:37 AM
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#47
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#1 Goaltender
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Yeah this is just way too much risk.
The jump in shooting percentage has already been noted, but he was also 4th in the league last year in goals scored above expected.
Buffalo must really believe in that shot of his. For their sake I hope they are right
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08-31-2022, 08:40 AM
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#48
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by transplant99
LOL...crapping on?
Good lord this place lately.
Simply saying that im not convinced he will live up to the deal. Is that out of bounds somehow?
But carry on.
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Didn't mean to be that combative, but IMO comparing Mangi's deal to this = crapping.
Quote:
Originally Posted by memphusk
Wouldn't his deal be cheaper to buy out also if need be?
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They'd need to buy it out next summer (before it even starts) to get the 1/3 ratio. 14 years at 1.14M
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08-31-2022, 08:47 AM
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#49
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by powderjunkie
Didn't mean to be that combative, but IMO comparing Mangi's deal to this = crapping.
They'd need to buy it out next summer (before it even starts) to get the 1/3 ratio. 14 years at 1.14M
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Why? Seems like a fairly good comparison to me. IMO, Mangiapane has done more to earn a nice contract than Thompson has, yet Thompson got a way bigger contract. Seems like a good illustration of why this deal is crappy.
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08-31-2022, 08:59 AM
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#50
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Franchise Player
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A contract like this is definitely high risk, high reward. You really have to put faith in your pro scouts and talent evaluators for it to really pay off. For those wondering why they didn't wait until midway through the season, if he has 20 goals by Christmas, the ask likely goes way up.
A couple of comparables to me here are Draisaitl who only had one 70+ point season when he signed his $8.5 million deal in 2017. That one I really questioned at the time but looks like great value now. Another is Jack Hughes, who signed for 8x8. That one was actually way more questionable than Thompson as Hughes' best season was 31 points. It's looking like that one may end up being good value as well (if he can stay healthy).
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08-31-2022, 09:32 AM
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#51
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
Why? Seems like a fairly good comparison to me. IMO, Mangiapane has done more to earn a nice contract than Thompson has, yet Thompson got a way bigger contract. Seems like a good illustration of why this deal is crappy.
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I agree, this is a good argument for why Mangi's deal is solid. But his argument was that Mangi was similarly unproven and therefore his deal wasn't very good, either.
So even if you acknowledge that neither player is a guaranteed quantity, then 3x5.8M seems like a far safer bet than 50M...
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08-31-2022, 09:47 AM
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#52
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Mar 2020
Location: Dallas
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
It's not though. It's a fair number for someone that consistently puts up those kind of numbers, or has been on a clear trajectory to that point. Giving a player a 7 year, $50M contract for one good season, out of nowhere, at the age of 24, is a bad decision. Full stop. He may become a star, which is great, but it was still a bad contract because the risk/reward is so heavily skewed to the negative.
A 2 or 3 year deal, in the $4-5M range is fair for both - and even that is a lot, IMO. If he is truly a 70 point guy, then there will be a $50M contract waiting for him. But for now, it is unnecessary risk for Buffalo.
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Basically what I said. It’s a fair contract assuming he is a consistent 40 goals/70 pt player.
Definitely he still has to prove it. They jumped the gun a little bit.
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08-31-2022, 10:40 AM
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#53
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2010
Location: Park Hyatt Tokyo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by heep223
Who tf is Tage Thompson
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He’s a Phoenix born lad who turns 25 this October. Tage’s parents are Mom & Dad. Tage was drafted in the 2016 first round by St. Louis at #26. He played 41 games with Stl before being traded to Buffalo in the O’Reilly deal. He’s now played parts of 5 seasons in the NHL.
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08-31-2022, 10:55 AM
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#54
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Franchise Player
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I don’t think y’all realize that he led his team in scoring, goals, and assists by forwards.
Buffalo sucks but anyone who can lead a team in scoring while also being 6’7” is worth the dough. Imagine if he had actual talent playing with him.
__________________
Oliver Kylington is the greatest and best player in the world
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08-31-2022, 10:56 AM
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#55
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by topfiverecords
He’s a Phoenix born lad who turns 25 this October. Tage’s parents are Mom & Dad. Tage was drafted in the 2016 first round by St. Louis at #26. He played 41 games with Stl before being traded to Buffalo in the O’Reilly deal. He’s now played parts of 5 seasons in the NHL.
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Also, his dad Brent Thompson is from Calgary and had a cup of coffee in the NHL with L.A., Winnipeg and Phoenix (sip of coffee there).
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08-31-2022, 10:59 AM
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#56
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Acerbic Cyberbully
Join Date: Aug 2003
Location: back in Chilliwack
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sidney Crosby's Hat
Also, his dad Brent Thompson is from Calgary and had a cup of coffee in the NHL with L.A., Winnipeg and Phoenix (sip of coffee there).
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He coaches the Islanders AHL affiliate, no?
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08-31-2022, 11:02 AM
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#57
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: A small painted room
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I've never trusted a Tage in my life
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08-31-2022, 11:03 AM
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#58
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Textcritic
He coaches the Islanders AHL affiliate, no?
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Yes, head coach there.
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08-31-2022, 11:04 AM
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#59
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by bigrangy
I don’t think y’all realize that he led his team in scoring, goals, and assists by forwards.
Buffalo sucks but anyone who can lead a team in scoring while also being 6’7” is worth the dough. Imagine if he had actual talent playing with him.
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He played with the re-animated corpse of Jeff Skinner (33 goals last year) and Olofsson/Tuch last year.
As mentioned earlier, Valeri Bure lead a bad Flames team with 35g 75p at age 25 one year, too (in a much lower scoring season no less)
Even the worst NHL teams manage to score a couple hundred goals...and those goals/pts inevitably come from somewhere.
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