Are the Flames BETTER than they were in 2021-22?

[bigrangy]

They could be better but it will be because the younger guys are one year older and one year better. The impact of Pelletier and Ruzicka down the lineup will be the biggest improvement.

Going from Gaudreau/Tkachuk to Huberdeau/Kadri will be a big downgrade, one that swapping Weegar in for Gudbranson won’t make up.

But the regular season literally does not matter. Success now is only about playoffs whhen you’re this all in.

[redmile04]

Going from Gaudreau/Tkachuk to Huberdeau/Kadri will be a big downgrade, one that swapping Weegar in for Gudbranson won’t make up.


Downgrade yes, Weegar for Gudbranson you are right wont make up, but i think its really close since D is a more important position.

[BarDown]

I think they're better. They have better depth at C, and they improved an already good D core. With markstrom, the flames are really good up the middle of the ice. They will be very hard to score on.

My one concern right now is speed in the forward group. We don't have a lot of burners, and we've got a couple plodders. There will be nights where they look slow against some of the better skating teams. Thats not much different than last year though as Tkachuk isnt a good skater.

This should be a great 5v5 team, and a team that should excel in the playoffs. I'm really looking forward to the season.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

I wish there was another option or two, as I think the point total will be about the same, but obviously a completely different team.

And saying “unchanged” is not a shot. The Flames were awesome last year.

[Bonded]

I think worse regular season record but more playoff success assuming Markstrom doesn't rechannel Brian Elliot

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by redmile04

Going from Gaudreau/Tkachuk to Huberdeau/Kadri will be a big downgrade, one that swapping Weegar in for Gudbranson won’t make up.


Downgrade yes, Weegar for Gudbranson you are right wont make up, but i think its really close since D is a more important position.

Based on offensive production?

Maybe a bit but not a lot, and having 3 defensively strong C's is going to offset some of that as well.

If the new guys can blend in quickly and play at the pace Sutter had his guys going last year, they will be just fine offensively.

Defensively is why i think is where the team will be stronger, and not just on the blue line where it appears that has happenedl.

That being said, i dont know what "be better" means exactly. They will make the playoffs (depending on injuries) and my guess a much tougher out once they begin.

[chummer]

Originally Posted by redmile04

Going from Gaudreau/Tkachuk to Huberdeau/Kadri will be a big downgrade, one that swapping Weegar in for Gudbranson won’t make up.


Downgrade yes, Weegar for Gudbranson you are right wont make up, but i think its really close since D is a more important position.

Gaudreau and Tkachuk combined for 219 points.

Weeger, Huberdeau and Kadri combined for 246.


Big downgrade?? Just the opposite.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by redmile04

Going from Gaudreau/Tkachuk to Huberdeau/Kadri will be a big downgrade, one that swapping Weegar in for Gudbranson won’t make up.


Downgrade yes, Weegar for Gudbranson you are right wont make up, but i think its really close since D is a more important position.

Might be a slight downgrade in the regular season with point totals because the johnny-lindy-tkachuk line was so established with their chemistry, but I think this makes the top 2 lines much more dangerous (whereas the top line was leaned on so heavily last year) and pushing Backlund down makes the 3rd line like a 2B line because him and Coleman are a strong pairing.

So less top-heavy, but less reliant on one line to carry the load because they'll be more effective through lines 2 and 3. Kadri will drive the 2nd line well and put up points.

That, I believe, translates to a better chance at playoff success than last season because they will be harder to contain.

I'll take that over individual regular season accolades any day.

I kind of get mid to late 2010s Bruins vibes from this group with Lindy being the literal runner up and potential heir-apparent to Bergeron. And Kadri bringing Marchand energy. As well as a great defense group and solid goalie tandem.

[Vox]

Originally Posted by chummer

Gaudreau and Tkachuk combined for 219 points.

Weeger, Huberdeau and Kadri combined for 246.


Big downgrade?? Just the opposite.

If you count Weeger you should count Gudbranson's totals. He had 17 points, so:

Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Gudbranson - 236
Weeger, Huberdeau, Kadri - 246

[FlamesAddiction]

I think they are better for sure. I don’t know if that means they surpass 111 points in the standings or not though just because I think the Pacific in general is going to be a tougher division. I also would not be surprised if there is a bit of a slow start while Sutter works out new line combos and players build chemistry. We may have to be patient at the start.

This is the most excited I have been going into a season in a very very long time however. You never know how things will play out after a pretty significant retool, but on paper, I love how this team is built.

[Kovaz]

No need to even bring Weegar into the picture. If you factor in that Kadri missed 11 games and Huberdeau missed 2:


Huberdeau: 118 point pace (115 in 80)
Gaudreau: 115 points (115 in 82)
Tkachuk: 104 points (104 in 82)
Kadri: 100 point pace (87 in 71)



We're replacing two players that scored 219 points with two players that scored at a 218 point pace. In terms of overall production it's basically a wash. A bit more powerplay production out of Huberdeau + Kadri compared to Gaudreau + Tkachuk, but Huberdeau also stands out with significantly weaker 5v5 linemates.


It wouldn't shock me at all to see Huberdeau + Kadri score about the same number of points as Gaudreau + Tkachuk next year.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Kovaz

No need to even bring Weegar into the picture. If you factor in that Kadri missed 11 games and Huberdeau missed 2:


Huberdeau: 118 point pace (115 in 80)
Gaudreau: 115 points (115 in 82)
Tkachuk: 104 points (104 in 82)
Kadri: 100 point pace (87 in 71)



We're replacing two players that scored 219 points with two players that scored at a 218 point pace. In terms of overall production it's basically a wash. A bit more powerplay production out of Huberdeau + Kadri compared to Gaudreau + Tkachuk, but Huberdeau also stands out with significantly weaker 5v5 linemates.


It wouldn't shock me at all to see Huberdeau + Kadri score about the same number of points as Gaudreau + Tkachuk next year.

I’d be a bit surprised to see Kadri score at that clip again. There’s not a lot in his career to show that he is that offensively potent, but at $7M he’s not being paid to be a PPG guy. I’m hoping for that 65-75 point range while bringing strong even strength play.

[GioforPM]

I think they’re better and I also think it doesn’t have to do with scoring. They are now just a better constructed team. Extremely deep down the middle, plus one elite and a number of good wingers, a deep D and a Vezina level goalie.

[mile]

This team is built similarly to the 2014 Kings

Huberdeau - Lindholm - Mangiapane / Gaborik - Kopitar - Brown
Dube - Kadri - Toffoli / Pearson - Carter - Toffoli
Pelletier - Backlund - Coleman / King - Stoll - Williams
Lucic - Rooney - Lewis / Clifford - Richards - Lewis

My random prediction is their regular season will be slightly worse than last year's due to injuries and all the new players taking time to get used to the system.

They will be better in the playoffs though, I think the players in this group are more willing to pay the price that is needed to win compared to last year's.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I think they’re better and I also think it doesn’t have to do with scoring. They are now just a better constructed team. Extremely deep down the middle, plus one elite and a number of good wingers, a deep D and a Vezina level goalie.

Agree with this. I don't expect either Huberdeau or Kadri to score at the same clip as last season, but the team is going to be a lot tougher to play against in general. They seemed to win in a lot of blowouts last season, so the goal total was probably higher than it needed to be relative to points in the standings.

The Flames scored a lot of goals last season, but that top line relied heavily on set plays which didn't seem to do them any favours in the playoffs where the opposition could adjust over the course of a series. Huberdeau and Kadri seem a lot less predictable than Tkachuk and Gaudreau and can adapt better on the fly.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I’d be a bit surprised to see Kadri score at that clip again. There’s not a lot in his career to show that he is that offensively potent, but at $7M he’s not being paid to be a PPG guy. I’m hoping for that 65-75 point range while bringing strong even strength play.

Same here. 65-70 points with a strong game at both ends and some grit is a nice upgrade on Backlund at 2C, and that's no slight on Backs, he's just at a different point in his career now.

It wouldn't surprise me to see all four players drop off in their point totals.

I have a feeling Huberdeau will score the most because he's been the most consistent producer, but all of them end up well under 100 points next season.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Kovaz

No need to even bring Weegar into the picture. If you factor in that Kadri missed 11 games and Huberdeau missed 2:


Huberdeau: 118 point pace (115 in 80)
Gaudreau: 115 points (115 in 82)
Tkachuk: 104 points (104 in 82)
Kadri: 100 point pace (87 in 71)

Using single season numbers is kinda cherrypicking though.

Kadri's last season is extremely anomalous, he's mostly been a consistent 50 point guy, and that’s the realistic expectation going forward.

Sure, Tkachuk (the direct comparison if Huberdeau replaces Gaudreau) also had a massive bump in points, but at least he had been flirting with ppg production previously, and big breakout years are a lot more common at 24 than 31.

[All In Good Time]

I believe the difference between this years team and last years team is that offensively they will be similar but they will be more solid defensively.
9-6 games from last year will most likely be 9-2 games this year.

[Kovaz]

Sure, but at the same time both Gaudreau and Tkachuk outperformed their prior averages as well. If we're looking at just last year then they produced pretty much identically. If we look back further, it actually favours Huberdeau + Kadri more often than not.


Looking at total points per game each season (Huberdeau + Kadri first, Gaudreau + Tkachuk second)

2022: 1.34 = 1.34
2021: 0.84 > 0.77
2020: 0.95 > 0.88
2019: 0.88 < 0.96
2018: 0.77 > 0.72


Gaudreau + Tkachuk have only outproduced Huberdeau + Kadri once in the last 5 years. Kadri's the weakest offensive player of the four, no question, but if we're factoring in Kadri's history as a 50 point 2C then we also have to factor in the clear gap between Huberdeau and the other two. Huberdeau's been at a 90+ point pace for four straight years with a career year at 115, while Gaudreau's closer to 80 and Tkachuk's closer to 70.


Really it all comes down to Tkachuk. Is he going to be a 90+ point superstar to go along with excellent possession metrics, or is he going to revert back to the 65-75 point range he's been at the prior three years? I expect Gaudreau and Huberdeau to both in the 80-100 point range (slight edge to Huberdeau), and Kadri to be in the 55 point range. But my point is that if they're even offensively in the same ballpark, this is a stronger team because of everything else they bring to the table.

[JohnnyB]

The added playoffs experience of all players, the center depth, the depth on D, and the commitment of the team to go for it in the playoffs are where I see improvement.

Point totals depend on way too many factors to predict, but I do feel like there's now a better alignment than there has been in many years between all levels of the organization that they're in it to go for a championship this year, and that's pretty big. Sutter came back for a championship, but I'm not confident that's what our stars were playing for last year. This year, ownership, Treliving, Sutter, and the new stars all seem very clear about what this team is expected to play for. That's pretty promising.