Russia invades Ukraine

[FlamesAddiction]

Many (maybe most) Russian civilians should be chased out of Ukraine when all is said and done. They want to be Russian citizens, fine there is a country called Russia... go to it.

Civilians in these situations aren't always innocent. Both implicit and complicit support by Russians in Ukraine has contributed to the suffering of Ukrainians. As far as I am concerned, anyone who has welcomed Russian occupiers, waved Russian flags, cheered the occupying forces, supported Russian institutions, or voted in the phony referendums, should be chased out Ukraine by force. Load up your carts and wagons and get. If some get killed along the way, that is acceptable collateral damage. Letting them stay only kicks the can forward and will be a future security concern.

I know that seems cruel and won't be a popular opinion, but whatever. It would probably be future war prevention if Russians just lose the privilege to live in Ukraine at this point. This scenario plays out all the time. Civilians give support to foreign occupiers from their motherland and then cry foul when the inevitable retaliations occur.

[Mull]

Ukraine government winning social media.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1557621932429819907

[burn_this_city]

Documentary on the first month is coming.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1557746818133401600

[Mull]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Documentary on the first month is coming.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1557746818133401600

I have wondered if the US controlled the narrative here intentionally underselling the Ukraine defensive ability to allow Ukraine to come out ahead in the end.

I have no doubt many intelligent agencies got it dead wrong (ie France) but for some reason I think the US didn’t but framed it as so. Last I saw the US official position was that they got it wrong as well in thinking Russia would roll over Ukraine

I remember Zelinsky once commenting on why he didn’t shore up the defensive positions more pre invasion and he made an off hand comment about not letting your enemy know you’re waiting for them.

[Mull]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Documentary on the first month is coming.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1557746818133401600

Is that Aiden in the video? Stay strong Aiden .. I really hope the Russians don’t execute him.

[Firebot]

Ukraine knew that Russia was invading but let's also not change the narrative. US did not undersell Ukraine's defense, they genuinely thought that Russia would succeed in taking Kyiv based on their assessment. By all accounts, on paper, Russia should have won the initial phases but keeping hold of Ukraine long term would be very costly and untenable.

There's a reason why no arms or weapons were provided to Ukraine until weeks later, that it was apparent it may not crumble easily. Ukraine was effectively on its own militarily.

Zelensky himself was in extreme danger on day 1 with Russian assassins within 100 meters of his position at times. Those initial days were utter chaos and that video of Zelensky standing in arms with soldiers on day 2 in Kyiv was very real, there was a very possible chance of them not surviving the night.

With different tactics and proper plans and properly maintained logistics, Russia may have been successful. They simply did not plan for a fierce resistance (the Hostomel Airport attack is the prime example). The US did provide Ukraine with crucial intelligence from the very start, and when the VDV transports were arriving at the airport, Ukrainian forces were ready for them and shot down 2 VDV Il-76 transport planes killing hundreds of VDV special forces in the air.

https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/3...t-down-reports

Those early wins were crucial in saving Kyiv.

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Mull

Is that Aiden in the video? Stay strong Aiden .. I really hope the Russians don’t execute him.

He's been killed already unfortunately (succumbed to diabetes under poor conditions and no medical attention). The whole Azov battalion that surrendered is largely believed to have been killed in those recent bombings of POW camps

[opendoor]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Many (maybe most) Russian civilians should be chased out of Ukraine when all is said and done. They want to be Russian citizens, fine there is a country called Russia... go to it.

Civilians in these situations aren't always innocent. Both implicit and complicit support by Russians in Ukraine has contributed to the suffering of Ukrainians. As far as I am concerned, anyone who has welcomed Russian occupiers, waved Russian flags, cheered the occupying forces, supported Russian institutions, or voted in the phony referendums, should be chased out Ukraine by force. Load up your carts and wagons and get. If some get killed along the way, that is acceptable collateral damage. Letting them stay only kicks the can forward and will be a future security concern.

I know that seems cruel and won't be a popular opinion, but whatever. It would probably be future war prevention if Russians just lose the privilege to live in Ukraine at this point. This scenario plays out all the time. Civilians give support to foreign occupiers from their motherland and then cry foul when the inevitable retaliations occur.

But Russia controls these regions and it's going to be extremely difficult to remove them by force. So if any civilians are going to be subject to retaliation or collateral damage in places like Crimea or Donbas, it's more likely to be those who are loyal to Ukraine. There's no choice of "letting them stay" when Ukraine doesn't control the territory.

Ukraine has a good shot in the south, where there's virtually no popular support for Russia, if they can mount a counteroffensive. But Donbas is another story, and there is no way Russia is giving up Crimea.

[Mull]

Originally Posted by Firebot

He's been killed already unfortunately (succumbed to diabetes under poor conditions and no medical attention). The whole Azov battalion that surrendered is largely believed to have been killed in those recent bombings of POW camps

Really? Because his Instagram run by his buddy said he talked to his mom and said it was news to Aiden that he was killed - that was only 3 days ago

[Mull]

Originally Posted by Firebot

Ukraine knew that Russia was invading but let's also not change the narrative. US did not undersell Ukraine's defense, they genuinely thought that Russia would succeed in taking Kyiv based on their assessment. By all accounts, on paper, Russia should have won the initial phases but keeping hold of Ukraine long term would be very costly and untenable.

There's a reason why no arms or weapons were provided to Ukraine until weeks later, that it was apparent it may not crumble easily. Ukraine was effectively on its own militarily.

Zelensky himself was in extreme danger on day 1 with Russian assassins within 100 meters of his position at times. Those initial days were utter chaos and that video of Zelensky standing in arms with soldiers on day 2 in Kyiv was very real, there was a very possible chance of them not surviving the night.

With different tactics and proper plans and properly maintained logistics, Russia may have been successful. They simply did not plan for a fierce resistance (the Hostomel Airport attack is the prime example). The US did provide Ukraine with crucial intelligence from the very start, and when the VDV transports were arriving at the airport, Ukrainian forces were ready for them and shot down 2 VDV Il-76 transport planes killing hundreds of VDV special forces in the air.

https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/3...t-down-reports

Those early wins were crucial in saving Kyiv.

This is my entire point though, I don't know if its true the US believed that, I think it was a bait and switch they pulled on the Russians.
Its factually wrong to say no weapons or aid were given to Ukraine prior to the invasion, $700 Million was given between Biden taking office and the invasion. Billions of $ since 2014 up to the invasion

[Firebot]

Originally Posted by Mull

Really? Because his Instagram run by his buddy said he talked to his mom and said it was news to Aiden that he was killed - that was only 3 days ago

Sorry, somehow I got it mixed up with Paul Urey

https://www.ft.com/content/8c043371-...f-d846788e691e

[LChoy]

Originally Posted by Mull

This is my entire point though, I don't know if its true the US believed that, I think it was a bait and switch they pulled on the Russians.
Its factually wrong to say no weapons or aid were given to Ukraine prior to the invasion, $700 Million was given between Biden taking office and the invasion. Billions of $ since 2014 up to the invasion

Not sure if we'll ever truly know the extent of what the US intelligence knowledge of this conflict and their real estimate of Ukraine vs Russia. However there is a neat historical precedent for underselling the strength of a country in relation to Russia.

In WWII, the British starting sowing fake intelligence to the Germans that painted Russia as a weaken country at that time and created a narrative that it would be a great benefit for Germany to invade Russia to claim valuable Russian resources for their own war effort, and to do so before Russia eventually recovers and become a potential threat. How effective this operation was in influencing Germany to betray Russia is unclear, but Germany opening up a second front in the war to fight Russia was one of their worst strategic mistakes of WWII.

So if it was a bait and switch and Ukraine and the West tricked the Russians to go in unprepared, it's not the first time that happened in history, except this time Russia's on the end of the deception

LChoy

[Sliver]

Can we pay you money or something to stop signing your posts with "LChoy"? I'll do anything. We know it's you. It's infuriating.

[LChoy]

Originally Posted by Sliver

Can we pay you money or something to stop signing your posts with "LChoy"? I'll do anything. We know it's you. It's infuriating.

Sorry, didn't know it was annoying

[bdubbs]

It didn't bother me.

bdubbs

[CroFlames]

The fact that it bothers Silver makes it hilarious. Keep it up.

[jammies]

Originally Posted by LChoy

Sorry, didn't know it was annoying

You should haven't given in so easily, you could have started a GoFundMe and made cash money. It's a more noble cause than steroids and Ikea furniture, or the ever-receding-into-the-future Flames playoff van.

[Leeman4Gilmour]

Originally Posted by LChoy

Sorry, didn't know it was annoying

LChoy

fyp

[Mull]

I sort of feel like I am falling for Ukraine propaganda as who knows where this was really taken but … I love it.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1557629328841646080

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by opendoor

But Russia controls these regions and it's going to be extremely difficult to remove them by force. So if any civilians are going to be subject to retaliation or collateral damage in places like Crimea or Donbas, it's more likely to be those who are loyal to Ukraine. There's no choice of "letting them stay" when Ukraine doesn't control the territory.

Ukraine has a good shot in the south, where there's virtually no popular support for Russia, if they can mount a counteroffensive. But Donbas is another story, and there is no way Russia is giving up Crimea.

The whole issue revolves around the limit and effectiveness of Russian reserves, and it is becoming increasingly apparent that they are running out, Ukraine is bleeding them to death, there will come a point when the Russian Army will just collapse, it is badly led, has no morale to speak of, has almost no ability to improvise so cannot operate without the equipment it has trained and planned its tactics around.

Keeping them held to a standstill while using long range precision munitions to decimate their rear areas, air support etc will finish any ability they have to hold anything, if things continue this way Russia will lose all of it, the Donbass the Crimea everything, the collapse will likely seem sudden but in truth the inability of the Russians to move forward now is the start of the collapse, it is a sign they have run out of equipment, they have the men but they have run out of tanks, shells planes already