Russia invades Ukraine

[Itse]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

But what does following politics even look like in Russia?

Newspapers and broadcast news are muzzled.
They don’t have open online forums like this.
They don’t have Facebook or twitter.
They don’t have topical newstainment shows.
They don’t have political parties as we understand them.
Politics even at the grass-roots community level is utterly corrupt.

What exactly is there to follow?

First of all, there are still quality news in Russian, you just have to look a bit harder for it. It's both out in the open in the internet and on telegram channels for example (a very common social media in Russia).

Second, it's very much a chicken and egg thing. Because people have been apathetic about news, there's much less of it, and because people have been apathetic about crackdowns on free media, there's a lot less free media.

It took Putin 20 years to strangle the media to where it's at now, it was very far from an overnight thing.

That's kind of the point. A civil society isn't held up by magic, it's held up by everyone caring about it at least a little (and some people putting a lot of work in).

[burn_this_city]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1555524045424279552

[Firebot]

Interestingly, the Vasily Bykov was reported to be hit and destroyed very early in the war but was found to be mistaken identity.

https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zon...ck-sea-warship

This time looks like it's sunk for real.

[Firebot]

Russia is so blindly focused on trying to locate and destroy the HIMARS they just lost 4 115$ million dollar S-300 air defense systems and a 9S19 air surveillance radar in the past 24 hours alone.

There is no cost available for the 9S19 but is party of an extremely expensive rare and valuable system that is part of Russia's crucial air defense against nukes. And they are sending them in Ukraine out of fear of HIMARS strikes.

https://en.defence-ua.com/weapon_and...adar-3779.html

Ironically, all were likely taken out by HIMARS

[FlamesAddiction]

Russian state television reported that North Korea has offered to send 100,000 "volunteers" to fight in Ukraine:

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/...state-tv-says/

Probably not true? It would be a great way to escalate the conflict for sure.

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Russian state television reported that North Korea has offered to send 100,000 "volunteers" to fight in Ukraine:

https://www.nationalreview.com/news/...state-tv-says/

Probably not true? It would be a great way to escalate the conflict for sure.

I'm sure those NK soldiers will show up as soon as the Syrian and Belarussian fighters show up.

[Pointman]

Originally Posted by Itse

I found this interview of a Russian sociology professor very interesting and informative.

https://jacobin.com/2022/07/russia-u...eid=1b031eb10c

It's not super long and we'll worth reading, but here's a couple of snippets.

He seems to be the first man who might be onto something regarding the reasons for this war: Putin had just spent a lot of money on military and felt like he had to use it somewhere because he's seriously I'll and wanted one last hurrah before appointing a successor. A title of "The Great Conqueror of Ukraine" would have solidify his positions and increase his security after transition. This theory seems much closer to reality than something like Putin trying to restore USSR (it's silly) or Putin responding to NATO's expansion (it makes a bit of sense, but this war accelerated expansion rather than stopped it).

While we are at it, I nonetheless believe that he's a bit overdramatic, perhaps in attempt to make an interview more appealing to the western audience. Contrary to what he says, there are still no signs of Russian economy being on the verge of collapse. I for one have hired another guy on my team just two weeks ago. If anything, Russians have adapted. Many, including myself, now have VISA cards issued in Kazakhstan so we can use western online services again. I have just paid for my dad's Microsoft annual subscription with my Kazakhstan card.

There are no ostensible signs of any kind of upcoming rebellion, although those are probably harder to pick up. His prediction of Russia collapsing by September doesn't seem to be grounded into anything substational.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by Pointman

He seems to be the first man who might be onto something regarding the reasons for this war: Putin had just spent a lot of money on military and felt like he had to use it somewhere because he's seriously I'll and wanted one last hurrah before appointing a successor. A title of "The Great Conqueror of Ukraine" would have solidify his positions and increase his security after transition. This theory seems much closer to reality than something like Putin trying to restore USSR (it's silly) or Putin responding to NATO's expansion (it makes a bit of sense, but this war accelerated expansion rather than stopped it).

While we are at it, I nonetheless believe that he's a bit overdramatic, perhaps in attempt to make an interview more appealing to the western audience. Contrary to what he says, there are still no signs of Russian economy being on the verge of collapse. I for one have hired another guy on my team just two weeks ago. If anything, Russians have adapted. Many, including myself, now have VISA cards issued in Kazakhstan so we can use western online services again. I have just paid for my dad's Microsoft annual subscription with my Kazakhstan card.

There are no ostensible signs of any kind of upcoming rebellion, although those are probably harder to pick up. His prediction of Russia collapsing by September doesn't seem to be grounded into anything substational.

I don't notice him saying Russia is about to collapse, only that Russia should be starting to "feel that seriously". Unless I'm mistaken?

That's roughly in line with many other predictions, and fairly uncontroversial.

There was always going to be a lag between the sanctions coming into effect and those effects showing up in people's lives.

[chemgear]

Originally Posted by Pointman

Many, including myself, now have VISA cards issued in Kazakhstan so we can use western online services again. I have just paid for my dad's Microsoft annual subscription with my Kazakhstan card.

Wild. Can you imagine Americans not being able to have credit cards and needing to get Mexican VISA cards instead?

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by chemgear

Wild. Can you imagine Americans not being able to have credit cards and needing to get Mexican VISA cards instead?

Could you even imagine looks toward Kazakhstan for freedom?

[Coach]

Yeah I don’t know how you don’t consider an entire nation worth of people having to commit fraud to get credit card access a pretty dire situation.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Coach

Yeah I don’t know how you don’t consider an entire nation worth of people having to commit fraud to get credit card access a pretty dire situation.

If you are Russian this is just how the country lived through the 60's to the 80's, they are historically used to this

[Locke]

Originally Posted by afc wimbledon

If you are Russian this is just how the country lived through the 60's to the 80's, they are historically used to this

Yeah...this is something that is difficult to fathom. They have generations of suffering baked into their souls.

Its just so wild, its difficult to imagine that culture.

They havent had a couple of generations that have caught a goddamned break.

They just dont know any other way. Its really unimaginable, especially from a Western perspective that, really, under Putin its been the best its ever been.

Its like being released from Solitary Confinement and into General Population and doing the 'Andy Dufresne Freedom' thing...you're still in jail but this is paradise comparatively.

That doesnt excuse what they're doing, but if there is a Country that needs 50-100 years of normalcy...Russia is it.

[CroFlames]

The difference this time is that in a generation, their population will begin to decline VERY rapidly. Their traditional solution to any problem was to throw bodies at it. They were running out of bodies before the war, and in the coming years their population will decline massively. It's happening in all western countries, of course, but at least people immigrate to the West. Ain't no one immigrating to Putinland.

This Ukraine business will drag on, sanctions will stick and increase, and Russia will unravel. But instead of bouncing back after a baby boom or something, it'll be whoops, we have 100 million geriatrics and only 10 million young people.

They will be in a world of hurt, and it'll look good on them. Except it's going to take a solid 25-50 years for Russia to truly fall to its knees.

[CliffFletcher]

The window when significant numbers of Russians had both the freedom and the money to travel abroad or buy western goods and services was only around 20 years. So while no doubt sanctions have been a shock to 34 year old Russian professionals, to most of the population today’s Russia probably feels pretty familiar.

[Huntingwhale]

Russian forces illegally occupying Ukrainian territory once again showing what useless sacks of #### they are by threatening to blow up a nuclear factory. Doesn't look good.

The Russians have begun to openly blackmail the whole world, declaring that they have mined the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant (NPP) and are ready to blow it up

"As you know, we have mined all the important facilities of the Zaporizhia nuclear power plant. And we do not hide this from the enemy. We warned them. The enemy knows that the plant will be either Russian or no one's. We are ready for the consequences of this step. And you, warriors - liberators must understand that we have no other way. And if there is the toughest order, we must fulfill it with honor," Vasiliev told his soldiers.

Yeah, because the f'ing Russians have shown themselves to be full of honor since this war started

https://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/851190.html

The Director General said Friday’s events had breached several of the seven indispensable nuclear safety and security pillars that he outlined at the beginning of the conflict, in particular:

Pillar 1 (Physical integrity): Any military activity – such as shelling – within, or in the vicinity of, a nuclear facility has the potential to cause an Unacceptable Radiological Consequence.
Pillar 2 (All safety and security systems and equipment must be functional at all times): As a result of the shelling, emergency protection was activated at one of the units, diesel generators were set in operation, and the nitrogen-oxygen station and an auxiliary building were damaged.
Pillar 3 (Operating Staff): This recent activity further increases the stress of the operational team.
Pillar 4 (Power supply): This has been compromised as a result of damage to the external power supply system.
Pillar 6 (Radiation monitoring and Emergency Preparedness and Response arrangements): In the current status of the site, this recent shelling further jeopardizes the already compromised EPR arrangements and capabilities to respond. However, the radiation monitoring system is still operational.

https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/pres...ion-in-ukraine

[CroFlames]

I wonder if Russia will ever be able to rehabilitate it's image.

Germany readily admits, accepts and atones for it's atrocities and doesn't shy away from facts. And even after this, it took a good 50 years for people to be OK with Germans again (I am told).

Russia will never admit to the facts of their actions. In the information age, EVERYONE knows about them. I'm not sure I can ever move on and will always harbor negative feelings toward Russia and Russians.

I just can't believe what we are seeing in 2022. Despicable.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

I wonder if Russia will ever be able to rehabilitate it's image.

Germany readily admits, accepts and atones for it's atrocities and doesn't shy away from facts. And even after this, it took a good 50 years for people to be OK with Germans again (I am told).

Russia will never admit to the facts of their actions. In the information age, EVERYONE knows about them. I'm not sure I can ever move on and will always harbor negative feelings toward Russia and Russians.

I just can't believe what we are seeing in 2022. Despicable.

It would take removing Putin from office and then totally disowning everything he did. If you look at places like post-fascist Spain/France, a lot of the way the people are perceived afterwards has how to do with how the population reacts to the leader.

For the record, I don't see the Russian people disowning Putin. They'll probably go all in and put up some kind of shrine or rename a major city after him.

[Sainters7]

As long as the Russian government doesn't stay this bat #### crazy for generations, I'm sure the view on them will eventually soften. But depending on how long and how severe this current iteration of their government goes on for, our current generation may always have hard feelings towards them.

Similar to many in the "greatest generation" probably going to their graves having negative feelings towards Germans and Japanese, that may be Gen X/millennials/Gen Z towards Russia if this current issue goes deep and long-lasting enough. It'll be the next generations where the feelings soften.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by Sainters7

As long as the Russian government doesn't stay this bat #### crazy for generations, I'm sure the view on them will eventually soften. But depending on how long and how severe this current iteration of their government goes on for, our current generation may always have hard feelings towards them.

Similar to many in the "greatest generation" probably going to their graves having negative feelings towards Germans and Japanese, that may be Gen X/millennials/Gen Z towards Russia if this current issue goes deep and long-lasting enough. It'll be the next generations where the feelings soften.

I struggle to think of a time that Russia didn't have a bat#### crazy gov't.