Huberdeau and Weegar Signing Discussion Thread

[Imported_Aussie]

Coming back to signing these two guys and possibly adding to the team, how do the flames fill out this season, while looking to next season?

Assumptions:
The salary cap is 84M for 2023/24 (up 1.5M)
The plan is to sign both Huberdeau and Weegar.
The 2C spot needs to be addressed as Ruzicka is developing, Monahan is a question mark, and Backlund at 3C makes this a deeper squad
The goal is to run it back for 2 years, then retool

As of right now, the flames have 5 players making more than 1M who expire this after this season:
Monahan 6.375
Huberdeau 5.900
Lucic 5.250
Weegar 3.250
Valimaki 1.550

Total 22.325

These players represent a 1LW, 2C, 2D, 4W, 7D. The latter two roles (4W, 7D) should be replaced at league minimum or close to it. That leaves around 20.75M to cover a top line forward, top pair D, and 2C before any cap raise, or 22.25M after my estimated cap raise. Essentially, the rising cap covers the replacement level players. Other expiring players like Lewis or Vladar are covered like for like.

If you sign Huberdeau and Weegar based on closest comparable players:
Huberdeau 9.750 (Gaudreau)
Weegar 6.500 (Parayko, Lindholm, Scandella)

That leaves 6M for the 2C, which may explain why Kadri is still unsigned, as he is seeking 7M and the only way the flames (or avs) pay that is after trading out money.

This is why I think the better strategy is to sign Stastny, even if it means dumping Lucic or Valimaki this year (likely as he will probably cost more than 1.5M). He would sign a 1 year deal, then the flames can see if Monahan comes back and gets a 1 year show me deal, if they move for a centre, if a young guy comes up, etc.

TL;DR - unless the flames want to make a trade involving an established player, or Kadri will sign for 6M or less, forget him and look to Stastny or rolling with Backlund and Monahan as the 2C/3C. Or forget signing both Huberdeau and Weegar...

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Imported_Aussie

Coming back to signing these two guys and possibly adding to the team, how do the flames fill out this season, while looking to next season?

Assumptions:
The salary cap is 84M for 2023/24 (up 1.5M)
The plan is to sign both Huberdeau and Weegar.
The 2C spot needs to be addressed as Ruzicka is developing, Monahan is a question mark, and Backlund at 3C makes this a deeper squad
The goal is to run it back for 2 years, then retool

As of right now, the flames have 5 players making more than 1M who expire this after this season:
Monahan 6.375
Huberdeau 5.900
Lucic 5.250
Weegar 3.250
Valimaki 1.550

Total 22.325

These players represent a 1LW, 2C, 2D, 4W, 7D. The latter two roles (4W, 7D) should be replaced at league minimum or close to it. That leaves around 20.75M to cover a top line forward, top pair D, and 2C before any cap raise, or 22.25M after my estimated cap raise. Essentially, the rising cap covers the replacement level players. Other expiring players like Lewis or Vladar are covered like for like.

If you sign Huberdeau and Weegar based on closest comparable players:
Huberdeau 9.750 (Gaudreau)
Weegar 6.500 (Parayko, Lindholm, Scandella)

That leaves 6M for the 2C, which may explain why Kadri is still unsigned, as he is seeking 7M and the only way the flames (or avs) pay that is after trading out money.

This is why I think the better strategy is to sign Stastny, even if it means dumping Lucic or Valimaki this year (likely as he will probably cost more than 1.5M). He would sign a 1 year deal, then the flames can see if Monahan comes back and gets a 1 year show me deal, if they move for a centre, if a young guy comes up, etc.

TL;DR - unless the flames want to make a trade involving an established player, or Kadri will sign for 6M or less, forget him and look to Stastny or rolling with Backlund and Monahan as the 2C/3C. Or forget signing both Huberdeau and Weegar...

Dube’s involvement in the Hockey Canada scandal will determine whether or not he’s here beyond this year.

If Valimaki can’t stick in the NHL this year, six years after he was drafted, he’s not worth losing sleep over.

Monahan ($6.35) Lucic ($5.35) Dube ($2.3) Valimaki ($1.5M) Toffoli ($4.25) combine for $19.8M.

$10.5M for Huberdeau, $7.5M for Weegar, and you still have $2M before demoting anyone or making other trades.

Zadorov, for example, will have value with 1 year left.

So all that’s available to them before they look at doing something drastic like moving Backlund or Hanifin.

A lot will also hinge on the development of Ruzicka and Zary - they have to show they can play the centre position and make some of these veteran additions unnecessary.

That said, I agree wholeheartedly on Stastny - he’d be a great fit this year.

[Flamesfan05]

Stastny has nothing left. They’ve lucky to get Derek Ryan out of him

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

Stastny has nothing left. They’ve lucky to get Derek Ryan out of him

He just had 21 goals, 45 points and was +14 at age 36.

He’s been a consistent 40-50 point middle 6 centre for like 7 years.

Derek Ryan had 22 points in 4 more games last year, so I don’t see why we’d be “lucky” to get that from Stastny.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

Stastny has nothing left. They’ve lucky to get Derek Ryan out of him

A bit concerning when a guy like him - lots of playoff experience but no cup - without any trade protection isn't moved at the TDL despite solid numbers last year (presumably there was no demand). And he remains unsigned now...though that could be his choice.

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

Stastny has nothing left. They’ve lucky to get Derek Ryan out of him

Why do you think that? Who cares if he is soon to be 37.

He was pacing for a 25 goal, 50 point season while being 56.6% in the faceoff dot, providing strong giveway/takeaway differentials, and strong analytics.

Based on last season he's still very much a capable second line player.

[mile]

Not against Stastny - he'd be fine as a 1-year stop gap. But based on his age and the two seasons he had prior to last season, I think it's more likely he has a 30-35 point year than a 45 point one. He's also never been a great skater.

Signing him would create some competition between him, Monahan, and Ruizcka for that middle 6 spot but I'm not expecting him to perform like a #2 centre on contender.

[Toonage]

Wasting that cap space and signing a bottom 6 centre when they have Ruzicka, Rooney, Lewis and even an over priced for that role Monahan seems like poor management.

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

Why do you think that? Who cares if he is soon to be 37.

He was pacing for a 25 goal, 50 point season while being 56.6% in the faceoff dot, providing strong giveway/takeaway differentials, and strong analytics.

Based on last season he's still very much a capable second line player.

He was on the line with Ehlers and Wheeler and they missed the playoffs . You get points when you are with those guys and get PP time

He is just not very good any more. I mean, sure bring him in for 1 year but don’t expect much

[gvitaly]

Originally Posted by mile

Not against Stastny - he'd be fine as a 1-year stop gap. But based on his age and the two seasons he had prior to last season, I think it's more likely he has a 30-35 point year than a 45 point one. He's also never been a great skater.

Signing him would create some competition between him, Monahan, and Ruizcka for that middle 6 spot but I'm not expecting him to perform like a #2 centre on contender.

I thought he had been rather consistent over the last 4 seasons. Here's his production pace(over an 82 game season):

2018-19 21G 48A 69P
2019-20 19G 23A 42P
2020-21 19G 23A 42P
2021-22 24G 28A 52P

[Vinny01]

I would rather sign Milano over Stastny. Unless Monahan is moving on I am not interested in acquiring another slow center. I wonder if the team is done for now or if there will be any more significant adds?

My lineup as of today

Huberdeau-Lindholm-Toffoli
Mangiapane-Backlund-Coleman
Pelletier-Monahan-Dube
Lucic-Rooney-Lewis
Ruzicka

Hanifin-Andersson
Zadorov-Weegar
Kylington-Tanev

Markstrom
Vladar

I think the team has a near elite defense with 6 capable top 4 guys. The top 6 is decent but could use an upgrade. Third line is a wildcard with a top prospect, center looking to rebound, and another player looking to take a step

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

He was on the line with Ehlers and Wheeler and they missed the playoffs . You get points when you are with those guys and get PP time

He is just not very good any more. I mean, sure bring him in for 1 year but don’t expect much

He’s the exact same player he’s been for seven years.

And we need 2nd unit powerplay help. Hell, we might need 1st unit PP help. Veteran skill players are great at that - look no further than Corey Perry.

Huberdeau-Lindholm-Mangiapane
Andersson-Weegar

Stastny-Backlund-Toffoli
Hanifin-Kylington

Monahan, Lucic, Coleman, Pelletier, Dube, Ruzicka.

Those are our other options.

[HighLifeMan]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

He was on the line with Ehlers and Wheeler and they missed the playoffs . You get points when you are with those guys and get PP time

He is just not very good any more. I mean, sure bring him in for 1 year but don’t expect much

He had just 8 PP points, and nothing supports the notion that he was at fault for the Jets struggles. By every metric he positively contributed to the team.

[Imported_Aussie]

The other thing with Stastny is that he would not be a true #2 centre, but would help solve that spot by committee, and can also slot in on the LW. I, like many here, am hoping that Pelletier is that 3rd line LW, but he is not a lock by any means, and playing Stastny with Monahan or Ruzicka is an option too

if you cannot afford a true #2 centre either as a high priced UFA (Kadri) or unavailable/prohibitive trade cost (Hintz, Hartman, Stephenson, etc.) then you need to cover your bases.

Monahan recovered from injury would be a #2 centre, and if back to 100% (which he may never reach) is even a fringe #1 centre. But he could also be replacement level if he is not recovering well

Ruzicka shows promise and has great size, but is not a #2 centre yet, nor may ever be. I do think he projects as an average #3 centre at least though, but may need time and patience

Zary needs another AHL year, so is not part of the conversation this year. Same as Ruzicka though, not there yet, may never be, and for a team that wants to contend now, guys like him performing are bonuses that allow you to trade from strength, not things you bank on

Stastny is not going to be a #2 centre, but he at least shows he can put up secondary scoring and win faceoffs, and would allow the flames to roll two solid middle 6 lines irrespective of whether Monahan recovers or if a young guy steps up.

Haven't included Dube here as he has seen more time as a winger, but he could play centre. I do think he is better on the wing, called into centre when needed.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

A bit concerning when a guy like him - lots of playoff experience but no cup - without any trade protection isn't moved at the TDL despite solid numbers last year (presumably there was no demand). And he remains unsigned now...though that could be his choice.

I think the Jets were just refusing to sell and were still trying to push into the playoffs at the time.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

Why do you think that? Who cares if he is soon to be 37.

He was pacing for a 25 goal, 50 point season while being 56.6% in the faceoff dot, providing strong giveway/takeaway differentials, and strong analytics.

Based on last season he's still very much a capable second line player.

There's no upside though. He's going to be worse than last season as that's just the way it goes when a player gets close to 40. The team already has depth players like Lewis and Lucic that are likely going to be worse than they were last season. You can only have so many players on the decline on your roster at the same time. The team needs to invest in players that have upside and he's clearly not signing with anyone on the cheap or he would have been signed by now.

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by HighLifeMan

He had just 8 PP points, and nothing supports the notion that he was at fault for the Jets struggles. By every metric he positively contributed to the team.

Ok cool

There is a reason he is not signed

[Imported_Aussie]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

There's no upside though. He's going to be worse than last season as that's just the way it goes when a player gets close to 40. The team already has depth players like Lewis and Lucic that are likely going to be worse than they were last season. You can only have so many players on the decline on your roster at the same time. The team needs to invest in players that have upside and he's clearly not signing with anyone on the cheap or he would have been signed by now.

If that is the case then, the move is to step away from the free agent pool and look to trade Valimaki in a change of scenery trade. The UFA pool is thin at centre after Stastny, as getting a guy like Rask is not going to move the needle.
if we go that route of a trade involving Valimaki, it would be down to what the pro scouts have found, and that may be no better than sticking with Ruzicka.

Maybe all this means that the team is done for now, and rather than filling the cap space up it is deadline savings to push this team over if the season goes well? All I know is that getting out to the other side of Lucic's deal and paying bottom line rates for bottom line guys will be a huge win for this team and its cap structure

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

Ok cool

There is a reason he is not signed

Yeah, and to me that reason is that Kadri is holding up his market. he is the consolation prize for teams circling Kadri

[Rick M.]

If the Flames decide to add, I hope it’s an excellent skater. Team speed is still a concern.

[EVERLAST]

So what is the chance these 2 aren't signed immediately ?

Are they letting them play out their current deals because this waiting , wondering hand wringing nervousness is for the birds .

Tre Flys to Montreal for dinner and discussion, Walsh tweets about it and still nothing.

I get there is the "process " but....makes me wonder what the holdup is about.

Are decisions pending about buyouts and retirements ?

Anybody with a crystal ball guess?