Alberta Politics & Government Thread 3.0

[Zarley]

I didn't mind Danielle years ago but she seems to have gone nutty of late. She previously had some decent ideas like moving to a sales tax model to stabilize revenues during resources cycles and re-invigorating the heritage wealth fund.

If she is elected I fear it will be constant chaos similar to Kenney's premiership.

[MoneyGuy]

What I hate about party politics is that there are people who vote for their party no matter how $hitty a job they’ve done. Case in point: Alberta UCP; I’m in a riding predicted for the UCP but the premier is a tool and my MLA does nothing but glad hand around the riding.

[Slava]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

God I hope you're wrong. It's gonna be a pain to relocate.

Latest 338 poll from June:

38 UCP safe/leading/leaning (4)
35 NDP safe/leading/leaning (5)

14 Toss up:

001 Calgary-Acadia
002 Calgary-Beddington
003 Calgary-Bow
005 Calgary-Cross
008 Calgary-Edgemont
012 Calgary-Foothills
013 Calgary-Glenmore
019 Calgary-North
021 Calgary-North West
062 Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville
069 Leduc-Beaumont
070 Lesser Slave Lake
082 Spruce Grove-Stony Plain
084 Strathcona-Sherwood Park

44 for a majority. Uphill road, but hopefully doable.

I don't know about all these ridings, but there's no way Calgary Glenmore is a toss-up. That's a fantasy, unless there's suddenly another party that springs up to siphon off UPC votes. I'd suspect some of these others are similar.

[Locke]

Originally Posted by MoneyGuy

What I hate about party politics is that there are people who vote for their party no matter how $hitty a job they’ve done. Case in point: Alberta UCP; I’m in a riding predicted for the UCP but the premier is a tool and my MLA does nothing but glad hand around the riding.

Some of the ridings too...they've got people who would have to murder a toddler on TV to only potentially jeopardize their election.

I mean, they'll go to jail for the infanticide but they'll be going to jail as the MLA of that riding.

The 'Team' element is just so ingrained.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by Slava

I don't know about all these ridings, but there's no way Calgary Glenmore is a toss-up. That's a fantasy, unless there's suddenly another party that springs up to siphon off UPC votes. I'd suspect some of these others are similar.

I'd strongly argue against their 94% odds of an NDP win in Varsity as well. At best they have a slight chance of winning but it depends on the candidate that runs there.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Slava

I don't know about all these ridings, but there's no way Calgary Glenmore is a toss-up. That's a fantasy, unless there's suddenly another party that springs up to siphon off UPC votes. I'd suspect some of these others are similar.

NDP won it very narrowly in 2015, though of course it was 33% vs 56% UCP/WR combined...NDP incumbent didn't run in 2019 and it was 55.6%-32%.

So ya, looks like tough sledding.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

I'd strongly argue against their 94% odds of an NDP win in Varsity as well. At best they have a slightly chance on winning but it depends on the candidate that runs there.

UCP won by 600 votes last time. You theoretically need to flip 300 people. Liberals won it twice in the 2000s, too.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Kinda hard to see a credible 3rd party emerging to take any seats within the next 10 months. Maybe a right wing break away party, but even Fildebrant only managed 7.4% last time.

Yeah, the next election is almost certainly either a UCP or NDP majority. I don't see a third party getting any seats all, certainly not enough to pull both below the threshold.

Maybe if the UCP picked a very moderate leader you'd see a far-right splinter that could take a few rural ridings, but both parts of that look unlikely

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

Yeah, the next election is almost certainly either a UCP or NDP majority. I don't see a third party getting any seats all, certainly not enough to pull both below the threshold.

Maybe if the UCP picked a very moderate leader you'd see a far-right splinter that could take a few rural ridings, but both parts of that look unlikely

It's not necessary for a third party to actually win any seats, they just need to siphon off a portion of the votes. For example, if a riding would have normally gone 55% to 45% but instead a third party takes away 15% of the vote from the first party, then it becomes 45% to (40% + 15%).

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Zarley

I didn't mind Danielle years ago but she seems to have gone nutty of late. She previously had some decent ideas like moving to a sales tax model to stabilize revenues during resources cycles and re-invigorating the heritage wealth fund.

If she is elected I fear it will be constant chaos similar to Kenney's premiership.

It’s hard to reconcile the Smith that left the Alberta Party because they couldn’t pretend not to be bigoted enough to pass a resolution that all people were equal with the Smith we see today.

Best case scenario is she is self serving rather than a true believer.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by GGG

It’s hard to reconcile the Smith that left the Alberta Party because they couldn’t pretend not to be bigoted enough to pass a resolution that all people were equal with the Smith we see today.

Best case scenario is she is self serving rather than a true believer.

Are you confusing the Wildrose with the Alberta Party?

[timun]

Smith was never a member of the Alberta Party...

[vegasbound]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

I mean, Calgary more than Edmonton, but I wouldn't say its not going to be competitive.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1551621404843548675

Interesting that this one has Calgary-Piegan solidly UCP but 338 has it leaning UCP. I'd more say it's leaning. It's historically a heavy UCP riding as it was Ric McIver's riding for the longest time before lines were re-drawn but people are not happy with Tanya Fir. All depends if the NDP runs someone credible, but they never have down here.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by calgarygeologist

Are you confusing the Wildrose with the Alberta Party?

Yep sure am.

Just before Smoth crossed the floor she failed to pass a resolution affirming non descimination against lgbtq people.

She argued in favour of GSAs. The loonie she is now doesn’t mesh with wear she was.

So there is two options: She was always crazy and it’s less politically costly to be crazy now or she blows with the wind and will do what ever it takes to win.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by GGG

So there is two options: She was always crazy and it’s less politically costly to be crazy now or she blows with the wind and will do what ever it takes to win.

Or there's also the third option: she could have gone completely crazy over the last decade. Surely all of us know someone (family, friends, coworkers, etc.) who we once that was more-or-less reasonable but then in the last 5-6 years we saw them become totally unglued.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

It's not necessary for a third party to actually win any seats, they just need to siphon off a portion of the votes. For example, if a riding would have normally gone 55% to 45% but instead a third party takes away 15% of the vote from the first party, then it becomes 45% to (40% + 15%).

We're talking about winning a majority government (which matters quite a bit), not winning a majority of the popular vote (which doesn't matter at all).

If only 2 parties get seats on of them will have a majority government as there is an odd number of seats.

[KelVarnsen]

The UCP is going to win. Oil prices are high, and the NDP did something to the lightbulbs or something.

[MarchHare]

Originally Posted by bizaro86

We're talking about winning a majority government (which matters quite a bit), not winning a majority of the popular vote (which doesn't matter at all).

If only 2 parties get seats on of them will have a majority government as there is an odd number of seats.

That's not what I'm saying at all. My scenario is precisely about winning a majority government, not the popular vote.

Let's imagine a single riding, Calgary-Glenmore. Let's suppose in a pure two-way race the UCP would beat the NDP 55-45 in that riding. Now let's suppose a third party enters the race, the People's Freedumb Party. This new party manages to gain a bit of traction and support with far-right extremists. They pull away 15% of the vote from the UCP in Calgary-Glenmore. That's not enough to win the riding themselves, but it's enough to make the UCP go from winning the riding by ten points to losing it by 5 points, flipping a seat from the UCP to the NDP.

Now multiply that same effect across every Alberta riding. The People's Freedumb Party might not win a single seat in the legislature, but they might pull enough votes away from the UCP to make an NDP election viable.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

Or there's also the third option: she could have gone completely crazy over the last decade. Surely all of us know someone (family, friends, coworkers, etc.) who we once that was more-or-less reasonable but then in the last 5-6 years we saw them become totally unglued.

Probably this. I don't remember a lot from the elections back when Smith was a front runner but she definitely seemed pretty reasonable and sensible. I suspect her craziness now is partly related to changes in society and partly related to aging where it is not unknown for people to lose a few marbles as the years add up.

[bizaro86]

Originally Posted by MarchHare

That's not what I'm saying at all. My scenario is precisely about winning a majority government, not the popular vote.

Let's imagine a single riding, Calgary-Glenmore. Let's suppose in a pure two-way race the UCP would beat the NDP 55-45 in that riding. Now let's suppose a third party enters the race, the People's Freedumb Party. This new party manages to gain a bit of traction and support with far-right extremists. They pull away 15% of the vote from the UCP in Calgary-Glenmore. That's not enough to win the riding themselves, but it's enough to make the UCP go from winning the riding by ten points to losing it by 5 points, flipping a seat from the UCP to the NDP.

Now multiply that same effect across every Alberta riding. The People's Freedumb Party might not win a single seat in the legislature, but they might pull enough votes away from the UCP to make an NDP election viable.

Sure, I agree that's plausible. But the original point was that a minority government (of either party) is very unlikely. Your scenario doesn't change that, because for anyone to have a minority there needs to be a third party winning seats.