Dom Luszczyszyn lists 10 "worst" NHL contracts.

[TheScorpion]

Skinner, unlike those two guys, is actually coming off a really good season. Big redemption there.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by littlereddevil

I'm surprised Bobrovsky is not on that list. He is overpaid and under contract for the next 4 seasons. Given Florida's push to contend, and arguably taking a step back this off-season in order to fit re-signed players under the cap, his contract is hurting his team's chances of remaining competitive.

he should 100% be there

[littlereddevil]

Originally Posted by activeStick

Yeah Suzuki being there is a bit premature I think. He's only starting his new deal this coming year and he saw a big jump already last season in points. Think he'll be fine.

He's also still quite young, and by the time his contract expires he'll be early 30s (and still in the latter half of his prime). I don't think it's that bad of a contract.

It might hurt Montreal's chances of building more depth around him, but I think Price's contract does more to hurt Montreal than Suzuki's contract.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by littlereddevil

I'm surprised Bobrovsky is not on that list. He is overpaid and under contract for the next 4 seasons. Given Florida's push to contend, and arguably taking a step back this off-season in order to fit re-signed players under the cap, his contract is hurting his team's chances of remaining competitive.

Werenski shouldn’t be ahead of Bobrovsky or OEL. Can’t imagine Columbus would trade Werenski for OEL.

List is ok I guess but Werenski is young enough and good enough that the contract is going to age well when the cap goes up

Add Gaudreau to that pp and he’ll be off the list next year

[dissentowner]

I would have Nurse and Skinner neck and neck for #1.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

I wonder if that model even tries to judge the goalies. It would be an apples to oranges comparison at best.

Suzuki and Werenski are suprises to me for sure. That seems to point to a misread on younger guys that can still get better, with long agreements. Rather have that than an old guy on a short deal that I know won't get better.

[tvp2003]

Luszczyszyn also did the 10 best contracts using the same model. Cale Makar is #1, Johnny Gaudreau is #5.

https://theathletic.com/3438736/2022...ontracts-2022/

Rasmus Andersson (4 more years at $4.55M) didn't make the top 10 but is listed as an honorable mention.

[MrMike]

Originally Posted by littlereddevil

I'm surprised Bobrovsky is not on that list. He is overpaid and under contract for the next 4 seasons. Given Florida's push to contend, and arguably taking a step back this off-season in order to fit re-signed players under the cap, his contract is hurting his team's chances of remaining competitive.

They didn’t include goaltenders contracts as they were too hard to compare to skaters.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by tvp2003

Luszczyszyn also did the 10 best contracts using the same model. Cale Makar is #1, Johnny Gaudreau is #5.

https://theathletic.com/3438736/2022...ontracts-2022/

Rasmus Andersson (4 more years at $4.55M) didn't make the top 10 but is listed as an honorable mention.

maybe last season...as I stated before I would have signed Gaudreau to 10.5x8 (at the time) but I knew it wasn't a great contract

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by tvp2003

Luszczyszyn also did the 10 best contracts using the same model. Cale Makar is #1, Johnny Gaudreau is #5.

https://theathletic.com/3438736/2022...ontracts-2022/

Rasmus Andersson (4 more years at $4.55M) didn't make the top 10 but is listed as an honorable mention.

He has short term contracts on there like Mathews at $11.6 mil but no Lindholm? Not a fan of his best contract list.

Gaudreau contract isn’t that good considering his age

Makar contract is unreal and should allow the Avs to be a top team until it expires

Hedman is an absolute steal

Drasaitl contract should be on there

I’d take Barkov at $10 mil for many many years over Mathews for 2 years

[CorsiHockeyLeague]

It's not an opinion. He has a model that he uses to predict basically everything, and at its core, that model measures player value in terms of their contribution to wins each season. Whatever number it spits out is what the list says. There's no room for subjectivity once the model's complete. Which is why it has Nick Suzuki on the list, but in the article says he expects that to end up being wrong.

Literally any model you come up with is going to have some misses. The goal is to be more accurate than other models and other predictions, which Dom's model generally accomplishes.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by littlereddevil

I'm surprised Bobrovsky is not on that list. He is overpaid and under contract for the next 4 seasons. Given Florida's push to contend, and arguably taking a step back this off-season in order to fit re-signed players under the cap, his contract is hurting his team's chances of remaining competitive.

He's highly paid, but he just came off a season with 39 wins and really solid underlying numbers for a team that doesn't play a ton of defense. Not sure what else you want him to do.

I don't disagree that the contract hurts the signing opportunities, but talk to any team with high end talent and they'll have the same problem.

[powderjunkie]

I bet at least two of the guys on the 10 worst list look better than Johnnny's deal in 3-4 years...and I don't even think Johnny will decline significantly.

[codynw]

Seguin is going to bounce back, he had major surgery last off season. Give him a full summer to train and he’ll be back to normal.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

He's highly paid, but he just came off a season with 39 wins and really solid underlying numbers for a team that doesn't play a ton of defense. Not sure what else you want him to do.

I don't disagree that the contract hurts the signing opportunities, but talk to any team with high end talent and they'll have the same problem.

Nobody would take him if he was on waivers....it's a terrible contract

[MrMike]

Honourable mentions: Hampus Lindholm, Josh Anderson, Drew Doughty, David Savard, Jamie Benn

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Dom attributes Gaudreau's 20 and 21 seasons as being dragged down by Monahan as he's mentioned that in the past. His model is based on Gaudreau not being centered by Monahan in the future.

That seems like a either a wildly specific attribute for a model or something extremely subjective. Not saying its wrong - just seems like something that would be very difficult to accurately model.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by CorsiHockeyLeague

It's not an opinion. He has a model that he uses to predict basically everything, and at its core, that model measures player value in terms of their contribution to wins each season. Whatever number it spits out is what the list says. There's no room for subjectivity once the model's complete. Which is why it has Nick Suzuki on the list, but in the article says he expects that to end up being wrong.

Literally any model you come up with is going to have some misses. The goal is to be more accurate than other models and other predictions, which Dom's model generally accomplishes.

Are their results out there based on the long term aspects of the model? Most of the measurements you find are either around gambling (extremely short term) or predictions (which would be one year). You'd expect a hockey model to be better in the short term vs long term - just wondering if this has ever been measured.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

That seems like a either a wildly specific attribute for a model or something extremely subjective. Not saying its wrong - just seems like something that would be very difficult to accurately model.

His models generally work out well. I've never been a huge advanced stats guy but since I started subscribing to the Athletic his models have been pretty accurate as a whole when it comes to predicting team and player success to the point I've actually bought into them.

[OminousFlames]

If an Oiler fan made this list, Lucic would be at the top.