Alberta Politics & Government Thread 3.0

[timun]

Originally Posted by Torture

Yeah, it's kind of a tough one but ooof, I sure would like to think that Danielle Smith wouldn't stand a chance in a general election vs Rachel Notley but even that's probably optimistic..

There is still a huge proportion of voters in this province—I'd wager at least 1/3—who absolutely will not vote NDP. Not now, not ever. As such the UCP, or whatever the biggest conservative party is come 2023 election time, still stands a really good shot at forming government no matter which crackpot happens to be at the helm.

[TheIronMaiden]

The chances of the NDP forming government are very slim under the most favorable circumstances.

[timun]

Agreed, the NDP are so overwhelmingly unpopular in the rural and Edmonton/Calgary suburban ridings that it will be next to impossible for them to form government. The UCP can win >35 ridings without even trying. If the UCP win 7-10 Calgary ridings they'll form government again pretty easily. (FTR the PCs won eight seats in Calgary in 2015.)

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by timun

Agreed, the NDP are so overwhelmingly unpopular in the rural and Edmonton/Calgary suburban ridings that it will be next to impossible for them to form government.

You sure about that?

[timun]

At the very least I don't think the NDP have a hope in hell of winning Highwood, Chestermere-Strathmore, Airdrie-East, Airdrie-Cochrane, Calgary-West and any Calgary riding south of Anderson Road. They have a fighting chance in the Edmonton area.

[Ozy_Flame]

I mean, Calgary more than Edmonton, but I wouldn't say its not going to be competitive.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1551621404843548675

[timun]

Right, as per the 'scoreboard' above, the only rural/suburban riding the NDP are comfortably leading in is Banff-Kananaskis, and otherwise there are only four others that are at best "in play".


I'm hoping the UCP are ousted, no matter which cretin happens to be leader come election time, but realistically I don't see the NDP winning 12 out of those 15 ridings "in play". Conversely all the UCP need to win is a meagre 4/15 to form government; that'll be a hell of a lot easier.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

The chances of the NDP forming government are very slim under the most favorable circumstances.

God I hope you're wrong. It's gonna be a pain to relocate.

Latest 338 poll from June:

38 UCP safe/leading/leaning (4)
35 NDP safe/leading/leaning (5)

14 Toss up:

001 Calgary-Acadia
002 Calgary-Beddington
003 Calgary-Bow
005 Calgary-Cross
008 Calgary-Edgemont
012 Calgary-Foothills
013 Calgary-Glenmore
019 Calgary-North
021 Calgary-North West
062 Fort Saskatchewan-Vegreville
069 Leduc-Beaumont
070 Lesser Slave Lake
082 Spruce Grove-Stony Plain
084 Strathcona-Sherwood Park

44 for a majority. Uphill road, but hopefully doable.

[TheIronMaiden]

The best we can hope for is that the election is close enough for the UCP to actually take account for what Albertans wants and need for fear of losing power.

[timun]

The UCP giving a #### about anyone other than their base and their cronies is even less likely to happen than NDP victory. I think the party would fall apart before "taking into account what Albertans want and need" would ever happen.

[Ozy_Flame]

Originally Posted by timun

Right, as per the 'scoreboard' above, the only rural/suburban riding the NDP are comfortably leading in is Banff-Kananaskis, and otherwise there are only four others that are at best "in play".

I don't doubt the rural dominance by the UCP, but the urban/suburban ridings are no doubt generally in play, and especially dependent on the UCP leadership race.

Originally Posted by timun

I'm hoping the UCP are ousted, no matter which cretin happens to be leader come election time, but realistically I don't see the NDP winning 12 out of those 15 ridings "in play". Conversely all the UCP need to win is a meagre 4/15 to form government; that'll be a hell of a lot easier.

Here's hoping if the UCP win it's Alberta's first minority government.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by TheIronMaiden

The best we can hope for is that the election is close enough for the UCP to actually take account for what Albertans wants and need for fear of losing power.

Another 4 years in power is a big win for their donors. The gains that corporate interests would make during that time would offset any potential losses that could come during the next term if the UCP are turfed in 2027.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

I mean, Calgary more than Edmonton, but I wouldn't say its not going to be competitive.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1551621404843548675

It is somewhat surprising that he has some of those ridings as solid UCP.

Strathcona-Sherwood Park was won by the NDP in 2015 with 42.6% of the vote. Last election in a wave election the UCP won it with 52.5% of the vote in an election where the UCP got 54.9% of the vote. If their share of the vote drops to 46% any reasonable read of that riding says it is a toss up, because that riding will perform below provincial average for the UCP.

Morinville St Alberta is another solid blue riding he has that is like that. UCP got 50% of the vote there last election, 4.9% below provincial average. Any province wide result below 46% for the UCP makes that a likely NDP riding.

The green category is at least 2 ridings bigger and I would say the NDP are the current favourites in more of those ridings than not.

[Monahammer]

Nally has done a good enough job for the stuffy st albert crowd+ rural around will carry him back in.

[Fuzz]

We really need a far right party to siphon some votes. If the UCP is that party, the NDP are going to have tough climb.

[MoneyGuy]

If Danielle Smith becomes premier she’ll approach Theo Fleury to run in the next election. Guaranteed!

[Torture]

Originally Posted by MoneyGuy

If Danielle Smith becomes premier she’ll approach Theo Fleury to run in the next election. Guaranteed!

This thought had not crossed my mind...*Barf*

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

Nally has done a good enough job for the stuffy st albert crowd+ rural around will carry him back in.

I would be shocked if he won if the UCP was anywhere below 46%. He brought the vote up 0.5% compared to the combined PC Wildrose vote in 2015. Provincially the UCP brought their vote up by 2.9% in 2019. Nally underperformed the province wide increase last election. Sometimes ridings are fundamentally more difficult, regardless of what the local candidate does. He is in one of those ridings. In 2015 the riding under underperformed the province wide combined PC Wildrose total by 2.5%. It consistently underperforms provincial conservative averages and it will again in 2023.

[Jason14h]

As long as oil prices don’t crash the NDP doesn’t have a hope

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Ozy_Flame

Here's hoping if the UCP win it's Alberta's first minority government.

Kinda hard to see a credible 3rd party emerging to take any seats within the next 10 months. Maybe a right wing break away party, but even Fildebrant only managed 7.4% last time.