Huberdeau and Weegar Signing Discussion Thread

[timbit]

Originally Posted by flylock shox

Or we could wait and see how he performs in Calgary first.

As stoked as I am on the trade, he's still an aging winger coming off likely the best season he'll ever have. If we pay him 10.5 for 7 or 8, what would we give to a franchise centre coming off an ELC to lock up their prime years? McDavid money?

If it's 8 years for Huberdeau, AAV should be under 10 I reckon.

Huberdeau is the same age as Gaudreau. Did you consider Gaudreau an aging winger?

He has been better than Gaudreau over the last 5 years.

How do you substantiate that he should be paid less than the offer that the Flames gave to Gaudreau.

In making these points, I am well aware that the contract will not take effect until the 23/24 season.

[Frequitude]

It’s a good time to accumulate top end long term assets while the cap is held artificially low for a few more years. I like that we got two for the price of one. Pay them.

[chedder]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

That doesn't mean you volunteer to pay too much. If Huberdeau was underpaid on the last contract he negotiated with Florida, too bad for him, but that's not our problem and we are not responsible for fixing it.

You're not volunteering to do anything. If keeping him means paying 10.5x8 you do it. That's what was offered to Gaudreau. Huberdeau is arguably a better player. So what if he's one year older at the end of the contract.

It's a good thing we got him for one year on an underpaid contract, not a bad thing.

[robertsfanatic]

if they sign both for less than $17M combined it's a big W!

[tvp2003]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

It’s a good time to accumulate top end long term assets while the cap is held artificially low for a few more years. I like that we got two for the price of one. Pay them.

I think this is a good point. Right now we only have three players under contract past 2023/24: Coleman, Andersson and Markstrom. I think it would be prudent to get at least a few more core pieces locked up while the cap is “low”.

Incidentally, the Athletic did a feature on the top 10 contracts in the league based on current value, term remaining, etc. Gaudreau’s new deal was in the top 10, Makar was number 1. Under “honourable mentions” they included Rasmus Andersson (who has four years left at $4.55M AAV).

https://theathletic.com/3438736/2022...contracts-2022

[Philly06Cup]

Very excited for Weegar. Very suspect of Huberdeau.

Pretty LOL how many people here are quick to say he's better than Gaudreau. Gaudreau proved he can play an elite 200ft game -- he's easily a tier or two above Hubs. Giving Huberdeau the Gaudreau 8x10.5 is a considerable overpay that could leave the Flames in that mediocre zone.



The most exciting thing will be this year. Both guys on value contracts. The entire D are on value contracts. Markstrom, Lindholm, playing beyond their contract. Depending on Lucic/Monahan, Flames could be big contenders and in position to make moves midseason for a second straight year.

[Macindoc]

Originally Posted by timbit

Huberdeau is the same age as Gaudreau. Did you consider Gaudreau an aging winger?

He has been better than Gaudreau over the last 5 years.

How do you substantiate that he should be paid less than the offer that the Flames gave to Gaudreau.

In making these points, I am well aware that the contract will not take effect until the 23/24 season.

Well, I would not have offered Gaudreau 10.5M X 8 one year from now, because there would be one less productive year and one more downhill year on that theoretical contract. Plus, Gaudreau's playing style lends itself more to longevity than that of Huberdeau, as Johnny H. avoids almost all contact. It's not unreasonable to think that for every year of the contracts, Gaudreau would likely outperform Huberdeau's age+1 year. And comparing the contracts with a theoretical 8 year signing, you're trading a 29 year old year for a 38 year old year. So, not really as comparable as it appears on the surface.

[Bourque's Twin]

Originally Posted by Philly06Cup

Very excited for Weegar. Very suspect of Huberdeau.

Pretty LOL how many people here are quick to say he's better than Gaudreau. Gaudreau proved he can play an elite 200ft game -- he's easily a tier or two above Hubs. Giving Huberdeau the Gaudreau 8x10.5 is a considerable overpay that could leave the Flames in that mediocre zone.



The most exciting thing will be this year. Both guys on value contracts. The entire D are on value contracts. Markstrom, Lindholm, playing beyond their contract. Depending on Lucic/Monahan, Flames could be big contenders and in position to make moves midseason for a second straight year.

Easily a tier or 2 above Hubs? Hubs has outscored and been more consistent than Johnny the last 4 seasons.

Hubs
GP 286
Pts 346

JG
GP 290
Pts 321

He’s also way bigger. If Johnny isn’t scoring points, he’s useless. He stays away from everything physical because he’s too small. Hubs also plays the penalty kill which Johnny could never do. I think Hubs is the better player. Maybe you can argue they’re the same.

[Matty81]

Yeah johnny was bad defensively for most of his career if we're being honest. Last year with sutter yelling at him was the first year I saw him backcheck hard. And even then it's not like he was killing penalties or doing anything other than hiding in physical games. Very very good offensive player when he has space, probably 2nd best in the league in that niche but not exactly an all around stud

Huberdeau was 1st pk unit in Florida. I'd say at worst he is his equal and I actually think huberdeau is better

1st line lw is fine, challenge for the flames is all about finding a rw for that top line.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by chedder

But we're getting Huberdeau's 29 year old year at $5.9.

And Johnny got 9.75 for 29-36 (8 years)

So only one year difference with a cheaper age 29 year for Huberdeau. We can have him for 9 years and he'll only be one year older than Gaudreau at the end of it. If rebuild isn't the goal, pay the man.

I'm in 'screw it just sign him' mode, too. Just saying that the market set for Gaudreau and Tkachuk (all prime years) bodes well for potential value. The low AAV on a team at the culmination of its build is absolutely worth paying the piper for later.

Johnny only got 7 years. He'll be 35 for the last year of his deal and turn 36 that off-season.

Originally Posted by flylock shox

Or we could wait and see how he performs in Calgary first.

As stoked as I am on the trade, he's still an aging winger coming off likely the best season he'll ever have. If we pay him 10.5 for 7 or 8, what would we give to a franchise centre coming off an ELC to lock up their prime years? McDavid money?

If it's 8 years for Huberdeau, AAV should be under 10 I reckon.

That would be a nice problem to have. Things are certainly shifting towards higher value on RFA years, but teams (except Dubas) still have enough leverage to generally keep them in check:

Hughes 8x8 (signed 2021, kicks in this year)
Suzuki 8x7.875 (ditto)
Eichel 8x10 (signed 2017, started 2018)
Hischier 7x7.25 (ditto)
Draisaitl 8x8.5 (signed summer 2017 and kicked in that fall)

All but Drai signed a full season ahead of these deals kicking in, straight off their ELCs.

Rob Thomas did a cheap 2 yr bridge and now locked in a year early for 8x8.125M

Interestingly, summer 2016 is when Monahan (7), MacKinnon (7), and Scheifele (8) in the low 6s AAV.

There was a real jump from those 3 situations to Draisaitl the following year. Drai's numbers going into his deal were a bit better, but not by as much as you might think to warrant a 2.2M+ bump compared to those three.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by flylock shox

Or we could wait and see how he performs in Calgary first.

As stoked as I am on the trade, he's still an aging winger coming off likely the best season he'll ever have. If we pay him 10.5 for 7 or 8, what would we give to a franchise centre coming off an ELC to lock up their prime years? McDavid money?

If it's 8 years for Huberdeau, AAV should be under 10 I reckon.

Lol at "aging winger"

[Sainters7]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

If karma is real, there is no “could” about E=NG being a karmic sinkhole.

Fair, but just take a stroll through the socials the past week or two, click on any Flames news whatsoever, no matter how minor the journalist, even one you wouldn't think would even be known outside of locals, scroll to the comments and behold the litany of Oiler fans in there talking all sorts of smack. It feels like literally every single post I see is like that.

If anything, that thread is just keeping things balanced, don't sweat it...if karma from fans talking smack is real, they're down by a million.

[heep223]

Originally Posted by Philly06Cup

Very excited for Weegar. Very suspect of Huberdeau.

Pretty LOL how many people here are quick to say he's better than Gaudreau. Gaudreau proved he can play an elite 200ft game -- he's easily a tier or two above Hubs. Giving Huberdeau the Gaudreau 8x10.5 is a considerable overpay that could leave the Flames in that mediocre zone.



The most exciting thing will be this year. Both guys on value contracts. The entire D are on value contracts. Markstrom, Lindholm, playing beyond their contract. Depending on Lucic/Monahan, Flames could be big contenders and in position to make moves midseason for a second straight year.

Gaudreau hasn’t played an elite 200ft game in his life in the NHL. Under Sutter his defensive/away from puck game went from terrible to passable. But he has electric game breaking agility, vision and playmaking ability offensively.

Huberdeau is a more complete player, not sure how you could argue against that, if you’ve watched both.

They’re in the same tier and it’s not a LOL to argue one is better than the other.

[flylock shox]

Originally Posted by timbit

Huberdeau is the same age as Gaudreau. Did you consider Gaudreau an aging winger?

He has been better than Gaudreau over the last 5 years.

How do you substantiate that he should be paid less than the offer that the Flames gave to Gaudreau.

In making these points, I am well aware that the contract will not take effect until the 23/24 season.

I only consider him aging in the context of a contract spanning 6 or more years. Realistically we can expect some decline at 34 even if he stays injury free. By 36 he may be a boat anchor with some term left.

Johnny's contract starting a year sooner is important as others have pointed out, but it would still likely be painful come years 6 through 8.

Johnny also did well in Calgary, with this coach and roster. I see no reason Huberdeau won't do well too, but he might not - there's a bit of an unknown there. Johnny we knew for sure stirred the whole offensive drink in Calgary. It's not a certainty Huberdeau will do the same. Plus I'd say Johnny was more of a spectacle and a draw for fans than Huberdeau is likely to be.

So, I see a number under 10 if it's 7 or 8 years for Huberdeau. At 5 or 6 I have no problem with something higher. Or we wait and see how things look in December.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by flylock shox

Or we could wait and see how he performs in Calgary first.

As stoked as I am on the trade, he's still an aging winger coming off likely the best season he'll ever have. If we pay him 10.5 for 7 or 8, what would we give to a franchise centre coming off an ELC to lock up their prime years? McDavid money?

If it's 8 years for Huberdeau, AAV should be under 10 I reckon.

They don’t have the luxury of waiting - they either signal to the league that losing Gaudreau and Tkachuk was a speed bump with extensions for both, or they trade them now.

There’s no sense playing out this whole melodrama again.

Huberdeau isn’t just a random top-6 winger. He’s an elite player. Elite players may not be worth every penny at the end, but they’re still productive.

Iginla from age 36-38: 61, 59, 47 points
Wheeler from age 33-35: 0.92 PPG
St Louis from age 35-38: 203: 0.99 PPG

And yes, if we got a franchise centre, it would likely take something approaching a McDavid deal to keep him for 8 years. Certainly nothing less than Matthews.

[chedder]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

I'm in 'screw it just sign him' mode, too. Just saying that the market set for Gaudreau and Tkachuk (all prime years) bodes well for potential value. The low AAV on a team at the culmination of its build is absolutely worth paying the piper for later.



Johnny only got 7 years. He'll be 35 for the last year of his deal and turn 36 that off-season.

My bad, yes, I forgot he only got 7 years. And it would be sweet to get Huberdeau for under $10 million per.

Agree, if we can't sign Huberdeau what kind of sorcery does Treliving still have in his bag? I think it means the word ownership refuses to consider.

[flylock shox]

Originally Posted by GreenLantern2814

They don’t have the luxury of waiting - they either signal to the league that losing Gaudreau and Tkachuk was a speed bump with extensions for both, or they trade them now.

There’s no sense playing out this whole melodrama again.

Huberdeau isn’t just a random top-6 winger. He’s an elite player. Elite players may not be worth every penny at the end, but they’re still productive.

Iginla from age 36-38: 61, 59, 47 points
Wheeler from age 33-35: 0.92 PPG
St Louis from age 35-38: 203: 0.99 PPG

And yes, if we got a franchise centre, it would likely take something approaching a McDavid deal to keep him for 8 years. Certainly nothing less than Matthews.

I'm confident the Flames will ink Weegar. He won't command as much money, and he should have more longevity by virtue of his position. Unless his demands are silly, I'd give him 7 or 8 years without much difficulty.

The problem with Huberdeau is the AAV. If he ends up getting 50 points per season on the back couple of years of his contract he'll be untradeable, and if he's still munching 10% of the cap it'll hurt the Flames chances of building a good team for a couple of years.

[GreenLantern2814]

Originally Posted by flylock shox

I'm confident the Flames will ink Weegar. He won't command as much money, and he should have more longevity by virtue of his position. Unless his demands are silly, I'd give him 7 or 8 years without much difficulty.

The problem with Huberdeau is the AAV. If he ends up getting 50 points per season on the back couple of years of his contract he'll be untradeable, and if he's still munching 10% of the cap it'll hurt the Flames chances of building a good team for a couple of years.

That’s a problem for 7-8 years from now - what matters is the next 4-6. You’re not gambling that Huberdeau’s gonna be your franchise player in years 6, 7 and 8.

They’re all in for right now.

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by Frequitude

It’s a good time to accumulate top end long term assets while the cap is held artificially low for a few more years. I like that we got two for the price of one. Pay them.

This is pretty much it. In very little time a10.5x8 contract probably looks like a bargain - provided his play doesn’t drop off much.

[Calgary4LIfe]

I think Gaudreau was a top 3-5 player in the NHL with his skill-set and IQ. I mean, last year he was literally tied for 2nd overall, so that essentially proves it, but I always thought he was at least in the top 5 in terms of outright skill/IQ combo. If he was 6'0", he would probably be considered generational. I also think he was really strong defensively. Sutter himself called Gaudreau the team's best checker. He did that well. One-on-one physical battles? Not so much, but backchecking, forechecking, active stick, puck pressure - he caused a lot of turn-overs. Gaudreau was very good in all zones last year.


How does that compare with Huberdeau?



It doesn't fricken matter. That's how.



How good defensively was Gaudreau under Gulutzan, Peters or Ward? Terrible, that's how. We will find out how good Huberdeau will be defensively. My guess is "just as good", and probably better than Gaudreau defensively last season just because he is physically more capable of winning one-on-one battles. He was playing on the PK in Florida last season (which I have mixed feelings about offensive stars playing on the PK).


Huberdeau will be really good defensively because Huberdeau is similar to Gaudreau with his high IQ and skill-set. We don't have to take anything away from Gaudreau last season - he was franchise level in almost every single way, and that was fantastic - we got to really enjoy his last season in Calgary. Now I think we will really enjoy Huberdeau's first season in Calgary (and I hope it won't be the last).


I am interested to see how good Huberdeau plays under Darryl. Yes, he had a career season, but if you watch Florida play there are some similarities - Florida plays with a lot of pace to their game too. Weak defensively, but with a tonne of puck pressure. Flames play a similar way, but more of an emphasis on puck-pressure in all zones. I think Huberdeau will fit in really well I bet.



Let's see how Huberdeau builds chemistry with whomever he plays. Hopefully that comes quick. This is a bit out of left-field, but I would like to see Pelletier get a shot on the top line. Why? Pelletier is known for being a 2-way player, he adjusted to the pro game very well, and we all know he is a talent. Throw him up there in the preseason for a couple of games and see how he does with Huberdeau and Lindholm. If not, I say that's Mangiapane's spot to lose.


The rest of the roster - will be interesting to see how it shapes up. I am sure Treliving is knocking on doors and seeing which players are available, and seeing what FAs would make good fits.


I disagree with trading any of the top 4 defencemen, however. I think there was more in losing to Edmonton than simply Tanev getting hurt (Edmonton is just good at throwing Calgary off their game), but Sutter spoke about the relatively inexperience of the blue-line as being a weakness of the team. Weegar I feel really solidifies this blue-line. Keep it intact. If you are going to try and make a run, you not only need defensive depth, but you need a strong top 4. Calgary has that finally again.