Just digging into the Mainstreet poll that came out the other day.
https://old.ipolitics.ca/wp-content/...Politics-3.pdf
What's fascinating to me is the 'second preference' question for the leadership race. Naturally, Jean voters strongly have Smith as their second choice, and vice-versa. But there's no signs of such a voting block amongst the establishment: McIver voters have Jean as their overwhelming second choice. Sawheney and Toews voters have Smith as their overwhelming second choice. Schultz voters have Toews as their second choice, but not by a large margin. Weirdly, Loewen (who I associate as being more WRP-aligned) voters have Toews as their second choice, but maybe there's some regionalism there where most of Loewen's supporters are northwestern and so have a high comfort with Toews.
Odd for them to include McIver (who, unless I missed something, has not declared), and not Aheer (who has declared).
Anyway, it's possible to kinda simulate a runoff election using these numbers. (Discarding undecideds, and a couple assumptions noted below)
First ballot would be:
Jean: 36.2
Smith: 35.3
Toews: 21.4
Loewen: 3.4
McIver: 1.8
Schultz: 1.2
Sawaney: 0.3
First four runoff rounds based on second-place preferences (applying second-choice preferences to top 3 candidates) would put it at:
Jean: 36.2 + 0.85 + 1.35 + 0.4 + 1.26 = 40.1
Smith: 35.3 + 0.25 + 1.5 + 0.25 = 37.3
Toews: 21.4 + 2.55 + 0.2 + 1.6 + 0.23 = 24
Final round would eliminate Toews, and divide his votes as follows: 57.1% of his to Smith, 24% to Jean, and then assume that the 12% of Toews' voters who have McIver as 2nd choice will break down as 10% to Jean and 2% to Smith, based on McIver voter second-choices.
Jean: 40.6+9 = 49.6%
Smith: 35.3+15.3 = 50.6%
I expect those numbers are off by a lot because the second-choice numbers just sound like voters who haven't really researched second-choices yet, and the undecideds are a huge number... but it does suggest that Toews really has to focus on winning over the establishment second-choice votes just to make it to the final round.