[News] UPD: Tkachuk arbitration hearing set for Aug 11

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

To be honest, Parayko or Tarasenko + Neighbours is about what I’d expect from a deal at this point. With Tkachuk being a 1-season rental for most teams, Treliving won’t have much leverage. And if the Blues think there’s a good chance they can sign Tkachuk next summer, they’re not going to offer a king’s ransom to get him a year early.

Tkachuk wants an 8 year deal...it's not a year early, it's a guarantee you get him. Can you really see him not signing with the Blues or Sens if they acquire him.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I'd rather they have more time to get the best trade they can, then have a three day window to work the market in more of a panic.

Well if he signed the QO they would have a year to work the trade market. Going to arbitration reduces that window to a matter of weeks.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Well if he signed the QO they would have a year to work the trade market. Going to arbitration reduces that window to a matter of weeks.

But they have weeks to make a trade and find a team that will pay what they want and maybe even facilitate with that team an extension

I’d be shocked if it actually goes to arbitration

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Well if he signed the QO they would have a year to work the trade market. Going to arbitration reduces that window to a matter of weeks.

Does it? I thought it would give them more time to negotiate a trade or work out a contract than if Chucky just signed his QO at any point.

Doesn't going to arbitration just mean, if they don't like the trade market now and decide they want the year, then they just go to arbitration, arbitrator awards a 1 year contract and they can go down that path.

Don't think the Flames filling for Arbitration did anything but extend the time they have to work on a trade prior to a 1 year contract being signed, or do I not get it (very pausible)?

[memphusk]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Well if he signed the QO they would have a year to work the trade market. Going to arbitration reduces that window to a matter of weeks.

They need to get it done and get after whatever they plan on doing. Dragging this #### out is what got them here to start with.

[chedder]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

Want to bet on that return? The team still has plenty of good pieces, if you see it as all doom and gloom when any subject to do with the team comes up than why bother? Seriously, hockey is supposed to be fun. Do yourself a favour and pick someone else to cheer for.

I'll treat my fandom any way I choose, thank you. I've had season tickets for 17 years. I don't keep renewing to torture myself. I love hockey and the Flames. I like discussing the good and the bad.

I certainly don't see any subject as doom and gloom. I just don't wear rose colored glasses. The management of these two particular players has been poor which, to mean, means management and ownership screwed up. Something has to change or we'll never see real success in this city.

I find it funny that you were so, so wrong on Johnny yet anyone who doesn't drink the kool-aid and agree with you is someone who should cheer for another team.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Cleveland Steam Whistle

Does it? I thought it would give them more time to negotiate a trade or work out a contract than if Chucky just signed his QO at any point.

Doesn't going to arbitration just mean, if they don't like the trade market now and decide they want the year, then they just go to arbitration, arbitrator awards a 1 year contract and they can go down that path.

Don't think the Flames filling for Arbitration did anything but extend the time they have to work on a trade prior to a 1 year contract being signed, or do I not get it (very pausible)?

No you are right, they could go to arbitration and sign a one year deal and subsequently trade him. It does eliminate the nightmare scenario of someone signing him to an offer sheet and they can’t trade him if they match (and are left just with draft picks). But a I suspect if it goes to arbitration they pay more than 9 million, which they may be fine with because they have a tonne of cap space and want to protect against the offer sheet.

[Psytic]

Is it true we cant trade him after the arbitration ? IE we cant hold onto him until the trade deadline?

[Manhattanboy]

Can someone please summarize the timelines.

Is a new contract or a trade imminent?

Last I heard Chucky was in Europe with the fam.

Appreciated.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by chedder

I'll treat my fandom any way I choose, thank you. I've had season tickets for 17 years. I don't keep renewing to torture myself. I love hockey and the Flames. I like discussing the good and the bad.

I certainly don't see any subject as doom and gloom. I just don't wear rose colored glasses. The management of these two particular players has been poor which, to mean, means management and ownership screwed up. Something has to change or we'll never see real success in this city.

I find it funny that you were so, so wrong on Johnny yet anyone who doesn't drink the kool-aid and agree with you is someone who should cheer for another team.

Season ticket holder from 2000 during the Save our Flames season ticket drive. Had them until 2015 when I moved out of the city. Tickets stayed in our family until this summer when my brothers gave them up because of family obligations. I find disproportionately the “gloom and doom” crowd are the ones who have actually put money into keeping the team in Calgary. Couch crowd is more positive.

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

Originally Posted by chedder

I'll treat my fandom any way I choose, thank you. I've had season tickets for 17 years. I don't keep renewing to torture myself. I love hockey and the Flames. I like discussing the good and the bad.

I certainly don't see any subject as doom and gloom. I just don't wear rose colored glasses. The management of these two particular players has been poor which, to mean, means management and ownership screwed up. Something has to change or we'll never see real success in this city.

I find it funny that you were so, so wrong on Johnny yet anyone who doesn't drink the kool-aid and agree with you is someone who should cheer for another team.

No issue with your take, and your opinion on the bolded isn't necessarily wrong. But this is the thing with hockey fans in general, we tend to just look at outcome, and then draw conclusions on performance. We get caught up in sayings like, winners win, and this is the business of winning.....and unless that's happening, people are screwing up.

But there is so much more that goes into whether things work out then what management can control on building a team, coaches have on coaching, and players have on executing.

Good asset management can and frequently does result in poor outcomes. Strong coaching still results in loses. Good players lose more games than they win often, especially in playoffs. So many factors outside of control determine success.

So easy to say now these things aren't going the way we want (BTW we are saying this before we see the return for Chucky, or even if he goes) that things were botched. I'm not so convinced they were. The funny thing is, if BT had traded both these assets before the start of the season, likely outcome is none of us would have been happy with the return, and would have been calling that poor asset management, and we'd be critiquing him for not taking it to the this point in time.

Now we have people saying anything is better than nothing for Johnny, given we lost him for nothing. If BT had traded him for anything, that would have been critiqued as well. Sometimes crappy things just happen, and you have to manage through them as best you can. The fact that crappy things do happen isn't a direct correlation to a bad job being done.

And based on what we do know about the Johnny situation, and now this one, seems more like a crappy situation that the Flames will just have to deal with, vs. something better management would have prevented.

[rhino]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

Well if he signed the QO they would have a year to work the trade market. Going to arbitration reduces that window to a matter of weeks.

No… if it goes to arbitration then likely after the decision Tkachuk takes the 1 year option and it’s the same scenario. I think the Flames believed 1 of 2 things were going to happen. He gets an offer sheet or he doesn’t sign the QO trying to force a trade.

[albertGQ]

If it goes to arbitration, can we trade him right away? Or do we have to wait until a specific date?

[flamesrule_kipper34]

Originally Posted by albertGQ

If it goes to arbitration, can we trade him right away? Or do we have to wait until a specific date?

We can trade him right now before his eventual arb date.

[atb]

Gaudreau delaying his decision until after the draft really screwed the Flames with Tkachuk. This type of trade would have had more suitors at the draft before budgets were blown on UFAs and draft capital was used/traded.

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

Originally Posted by Aarongavey

No you are right, they could go to arbitration and sign a one year deal and subsequently trade him. It does eliminate the nightmare scenario of someone signing him to an offer sheet and they can’t trade him if they match (and are left just with draft picks). But a I suspect if it goes to arbitration they pay more than 9 million, which they may be fine with because they have a tonne of cap space and want to protect against the offer sheet.

Makes sense. I don't think the offer sheet scenario was actually a bad one for the Flames. If Chucky is hell bent on not playing here, he'd never sign one, because he knows that puts control back in Calgary's court on matching. Sure he could demand a trade, but that's a terrible path for both parties, so he'd never do that IMO unless he was ok with Calgary matching and staying here.

[Flames_F.T.W]

Has there been anything from Lebrun or Friedman on this yet? I keep waiting for some kind of insider knowledge. Are they actively negotiating with Tkachuk's camp?

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

Originally Posted by atb

Gaudreau delaying his decision until after the draft really screwed the Flames with Tkachuk. This type of trade would have had more suitors at the draft before budgets were blown on UFAs and draft capital was used/traded.

I think you are right, and why BT and Edwards are likely so upset with Johnny. Not giving up much return for Johnny on that front with his delay, it's the Chucky movement that got hosed by him essentially making the team believe if they met his salary demands he'd stay.

[Fighting Banana Slug]

I don't see any downside to the arbitration, other than perhaps a really large (like 11mm) award to Tkachuk which I think unlikely. To me the risk mitigation is not the offer sheet, but the holdout. That would really skewer the Flames. No production from him, no leverage in trade negotiations with others, just a sad situation.

I want Tkachuk to stay long term, but it sure doesn't seem likely. Make the best of a bad situation and hopefully make a deal in the next week or two.

[Calgary4LIfe]

That's a couple of big wrenches thrown into the machine this off-season so far!

I honestly thought that Tkachuk would have been easier to re-sign with this latest move - that it was a good sign that the Flames were going to re-sign him actually. With all the media that is closest to the Flames talking about Tkachuk being traded, well, I guess that's not the case.

3 options - one of them is the least likely:

1) Package of futures - picks and prospects, plus any dead salary back to make the cap work. Flames might as well rebuild.

OR

2) Package of 1 good established player, pick + prospect - it all depends on how good that established player is. Can the Flames realistically compete?

OR

3) Superstar for superstar - very rare. When was the last one? Arguably Seth Jones for Ryan Johansen? Was that really the last one? This is not likely as it usually takes a 'change of scenery' type for a 'change of scenery type', but who knows. Maybe Treliving can pull a rabbit out of a hat. Flames figure out the cap space, sign another couple of players or two (and their own RFAs of course) and start the season trying to compete.

Maybe I am missing something. At this point, my own needle is being pushed even further into the rebuild zone.

As for Treliving having responsibility for this off-season - of course he has. Why? Simply because this is his watch. I didn't agree with people who were saying: "Treliving is a bystander, as this Flames' success is all about Sutter". Treliving was the GM of the team and deserved the accolades. He is still the GM and of course he deserves the criticism. Whatever the outcome, there are always going to be people that argue "What if's". There is no picking and choosing about when to blame the GM for the team sucking, or when to praise the GM for when the team is doing well. Both times he is 100% deserving of it.

What worries me at the moment is that this is fairly late into the free agent season. Lots of teams have already made their plans, and have adjusted their teams and cap space. Plus, if we are all talking about how Tkachuk is really intent on playing in St. Louis, then perhaps there will be some GMs out there that will also view him as a rental only, and their packages will reflect that.

Hopefully if Tkachuk is traded, the Flames can facilitate a contract extension (especially a 'sign and trade' if a team values the 8th year). That would be something. Unlikely, but definitely the best option in trying to extract value in a trade.

This off-season may be disappointing so far (and knock on wood that it doesn't stay that way), but it sure is damn interesting.