[News] UPD: Tkachuk arbitration hearing set for Aug 11

[Circa89]

This off season has me really questioning my love for this League (not sport) . Kinda getting super sick of the money and the egos, it’s really leaving a bad taste in my mouth. I hope I will spend money elsewhere and donate to the war effort in Ukraine rather than spend another penny on the NHL ever again.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Assuming he does leave, it’s hard to ignore the fact that we’d have lost two 100 point players in one off-season considering we hadn’t had a 100 point player since what? 1993?

Is Tkachuk a 100 point player or is he a player that scored 100 points?

1 year offer sheet was the true worry and this news ends that...I just don't get why today is seen as bad.

Sens and Blues can compete for him if he doesn't want to sign...return plus cap space probably improves the Flames vs. a 10.5M Tkachuk

either way we are getting a decent outcome with Tkachuk compared to you know who

[CF84]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

Find a spot for Tanev during the off-season and you end up with this roster:

Dube-Lindholm-Toffoli
Coleman-Backlund-Mangiapane
Lucic-Trash-Trash
Trash-Trash-Trash

Hanifin-Andersson
Kylington-Trash
Trash-Trash

Vladar
Trash

Looks bottom 3 to me.

You forgot Zadorov,Monahan (I know you probably have him labeled as trash), Mackey,Ruzicka, and likely one of Phillips or Pelletier (or both looking at your list). As someone who follows our prospects nearly as much as I follow the Flames, your list is pretty insulting.

If Tkachuk is traded away, I fully expect our prospects to come up and take away any chance at being a bottom feeder unless Vladar/Wolf completely crap the bed. Sutter will not coach an NHL team to the bottom 3 and we'd likely end up finishing right outside the playoffs with a slim chance at the lottery.
I saw what Sutter did with the 2003-04 Flames who had Craig Conroy as a #1 center and 35 point Martin Gelinas as their top line LW. Even with Iginla, that was a team that was considered a bottom feeder.

I know it's highly unlikely, but I'll make you an avatar wager:
If Tkachuk and one of Markstrom/Tanev are traded for picks, the Flames are not a bottom 8 team in the league.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Is Tkachuk a 100 point player or is he a player that scored 100 points?

1 year offer sheet was the true worry and this news ends that...I just don't get why today is seen as bad.

Sens and Blues can compete for him if he doesn't want to sign...return plus cap space probably improves the Flames vs. a 10.5M Tkachuk

either way we are getting a decent outcome with Tkachuk compared to you know who

Curious why a one year offer sheet is the true worry?

If he signs for over 10.5M you take the picks and run. Best “trade” in Flames history.

If he signs between 9-10.5M, you assess the two firsts (and 2nd and 3rd) based on the team that offersheeted him. In any case it’s the same ballpark value that arbitration will likely see him get.

If he signs for less than 9M, you get him cheaper for the qualifying offer that was available for him to sign for a month.

PepsiFree, Ladd was due his 3M signing bonus after the draft, they wanted to move him prior. And if not Ladd use salary/cap room for other players like those who were available (Dadanov, Weber, Mrazek, etc.). Cap space would have been an asset the Flames had if they knew they were rebuilding.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

Curious why a one year offer sheet is the true worry?

If he signs for over 10.5M you take the picks and run. Best “trade” in Flames history.

If he signs between 9-10.5M, you assess the two firsts (and 2nd and 3rd) based on the team that offersheeted him. In any case it’s the same ballpark value that arbitration will likely see him get.

If he signs for less than 9M, you get him cheaper for the qualifying offer that was available for him to sign for a month.

PepsiFree, Ladd was due his 3M signing bonus after the draft, they wanted to move him prior. And if not Ladd use salary/cap room for other players like those who were available (Dadanov, Weber, Mrazek, etc.). Cap space would have been an asset the Flames had if they knew they were rebuilding.

You can't match a 1 year offer sheet because then you can't trade him

Blues could give him a 1 year offer sheet for whatever (nudge nudge, wink wink) and then extend him during the season for 8 years

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

ROR/Kyrou/Neighbors/Greiss - Tkachuk/Vladar

Blues need a better backup than Greiss, Flames don’t, and have Wolf in the wings. Vladar gets you Neighbors.

That's a home run

[GullFoss]

This thread started with a lot of bad takes from posters butt hurt about Johnny and ended up with talking about burger flipping in cape Breton. Cool. Cool.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by dino7c

That's a home run

I feel like it’s weighted in favour of the Flames but then again ROR is a rental and Kyrou is a pending RFA. Vladar is a good piece, but the crease is gonna get crowded soon if Wolf comes on.

[howard_the_duck]

In any Tkachuk deal it needs to land elite futures. Full stop.

Trying to grab a little win now in any deal would be a mistake. He’s the only piece on our roster that yields the kind of elite talent we can build around for when we’re competitive again.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

The ‘narrative’? LOL.

If there’s false narrative it’s buying into ownership’s ‘make the playoffs and see what happens’. WITH Johnny and we need roster reconstruction. Now? Playoffs are best case scenario.

Yup, that's The Narrative. The team is hopelessly mediocre for ever and ever and ever unless they blow everything up.

Ignore last season. It never happened.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Blues could give him a 1 year offer sheet for whatever (nudge nudge, wink wink) and then extend him during the season for 8 years

No they couldn't, because he would still have to agree at the time they decided to extend him. His ‘nudge nudge, wink wink’ is worth precisely nothing.

They sign him for one year, he has exactly the same right to go UFA as he would have here. And they would have given up a bunch of assets for nothing.

Originally Posted by AC

Agreed, the absolute worst case scenario would have been for a team to sign him to a 1 year offer sheet, the Flames match but aren't allowed to trade him and he leaves as a free agent next year.

If anybody had been silly enough to give him a one-year offer sheet, the thing would be to take the compensation and run.

However, I can't imagine any team wasting that kind of assets for a one-year deal, and now he can't receive an offer sheet anyway.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Yup, that's The Narrative. The team is hopelessly mediocre for ever and ever and ever unless they blow everything up.

Ignore last season. It never happened.

Of course it happened. They needed game 7 OT to get past a wild card team, then got rolled by the Oilers. Since then they've lost their most skilled player.

This is likely still a playoff team without Johnny, but not much more than that.

[howard_the_duck]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Yup, that's The Narrative. The team is hopelessly mediocre for ever and ever and ever unless they blow everything up.

Ignore last season. It never happened.

No one is ignoring last season.

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by flamesrule_kipper34

This makes a ton of sense.

Don't think they were worried about offer sheet. They were worried he'd accept his QO which he can't now and be guaranteed only a 1 year deal with extension only being possible in 2023.

Smart move, basically gives them time until his arbitration to work out a long term deal.

I don't think this makes a lick of sense once the team lost Gaudreau, eight 1st round draft picks in 4 years for a root and branch rebuild makes way more sense to me, hell the management dont even have to take any blame they can straight out say it was all Johnny's fault

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by howard_the_duck

No one is ignoring last season.

A number of posters keep trotting out the line that the Flames always finish 8-12 in the conference, and always will unless they do a total rebuild. How is that taking last season into account?

[afc wimbledon]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

A number of posters keep trotting out the line that the Flames always finish 8-12 in the conference, and always will unless they do a total rebuild. How is that taking last season into account?

well I would guess it's because last seasons team is finished and gone, whatever the Flames put on the Ice next season is a rebuild the only question is how much of one

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by CF84

You forgot Zadorov,Monahan (I know you probably have him labeled as trash), Mackey,Ruzicka, and likely one of Phillips or Pelletier (or both looking at your list).

Monahan I think is up in the air, but unless rebounds. I don't think he moves the needle too much.

Zadorov simply isn't re-signed in that scenario.

Originally Posted by CF84

I know it's highly unlikely, but I'll make you an avatar wager:
If Tkachuk and one of Markstrom/Tanev are traded for picks, the Flames are not a bottom 8 team in the league.

Because they didn't embrace the rebuild and did sign Zadorov, kept Tanev, etc. this isn't the same team that would it be going into the season.

But sure, I'll make they trade Tkachuk and Markstrom before the season starts and don't receive roster players that move the needle beyond "trash", I'd make that wager.

[gvitaly]

I’m personally going to wait before reacting to any Tkachuk news. If not for last season’s success we would’ve all been happy about changing the core and makeup of our team. Sutter was hired to turn the boys into winners, and the ones that don’t want to put the team and winning first will end up somewhere else.

Tkachuk can be the future captain of this team, but he can also be an overpaid 70 point player, that struggles producing in the playoffs. If he doesn’t want to be here, then all the best to him. I think that regardless of how this plays out the Flames will have a definite direction before the trade deadline this season.

[AC]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1549272578916634625

https://twitter.com/user/status/1549276704698355712

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by dino7c

You can't match a 1 year offer sheet because then you can't trade him

Blues could give him a 1 year offer sheet for whatever (nudge nudge, wink wink) and then extend him during the season for 8 years

I think you still need to operate that Tkachuk, as a Tkachuk, isn't parlaying this situation into a 9 year contract unless it maximizes his earnings. I don't see a situation where that occurs.

He forgoes UFA to sign with a team who needs to offer more than 9M this year to earn more than he could have just got by signing the QO. Then he risks injury or a drop in play before he can sign in January. Huge risk. And if he gets the 9 years he becomes a UFA when he's 33? Too old to really cash in on another massive UFA contract. If he makes it to UFA after signing a one year deal he could have just stuck with the Flames without the offersheet to do it but he still ends up as a UFA when the cap is artificially low because of the escrow balance.

If Tkachuk was focused on maximizing his earnings I think somehow getting a three year deal, taking him to UFA as a 27 year old when the escrow payment is expected to be repaid and the cap jumps and teams have cap space due to that jump is his best bet.

In this specific situation, due to their draft picks being traded, St. Louis can currently only offer sheet under 6.3M or over 10.5M. I don't see a situation where Tkachuk signs for under 6.3M and the Flames take the compensation if over 10.5M. Obviously it was an example and St. Louis could try to recoup the picks but right now the only teams that can offer him more than 6.3M (but less than 10.5M) are the Ducks, Coyotes, Blackhawks, Jackets Wings, Oilers, Kings, Canadiens, Predators, Islanders, Kraken and Canucks.

Columbus doesn't have the space after they signed some kid this off-season, the Islanders and Predators could make it work with a relatively minor trade for cap considerations, but the Islanders have Barzal in the exact same situation next year and probably don't want open season there, especially if Tkachuk is already handcuffing them a bit when it comes to re-signing Barzal. Plus the Islanders yo-yo but they were out of the playoffs by 16 points last season. The other teams I think you just take the 2 first round picks and thank Tkachuk for his effort level while here.

So I think if an offersheet, one year or not, is a problem for the Flames it needs to be because they are close to a deal (in which case they are trying to sign before arbitration without the offersheet getting in the way) or a trade (which isn't completely different). In either case they shouldn't make it to arbitration, but it sucks if they do.