Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by MrMike

We all know what’s really going to happen. He’s going to go to Vegas.

Okay. I legitimately snickered.

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[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by yourbestfriend

How many teams can realistically afford Johnny's roughly 10M+ cap hit?

1) NJD from a cap perspective makes the most sense. They have about $25M in cap with only Bratt as the other major piece to sign. They also have a ton of flexibility next year. That team will be dangerous in a few years, but Johnny's gotta realize there won't be a ton of winning in the next number of years.

2) NYI have the space right now to do it, although they'll be in a bit of a bind next year once Barzal needs to be reupped. The roster doesn't look as promising as NJD though.

3) Philly has 118k in projected cap. They would need to clear, at a bare minimum, two of: Provorov, JVR and Konecny. I just don't see it happening.

Will be interesting to see what happens. From a fan perspective, Johnny going to NJ would be the most entertaining. Johnny, Hughes, Bratt, Hischier, Mercer and Sharangovich up front is pretty elite. They've got a ton of potential on D as well.

I think teams can exceed the cap by 10% in the off season without penalty. There would be some teams that would dip into that and then make moves after. It's not the ideal way to do it, but we are talking about adding Gaudreau here. It would be a good problem to have even if it means trading another player at a discount.

[yourbestfriend]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

I think teams can exceed the cap by 10% in the off season without penalty. There would be some teams that would dip into that and then make moves after. It's not the ideal way to do it, but we are talking about adding Gaudreau here. It would be a good problem to have even if it means trading another player at a discount.

For sure, I'm assuming your referring to Philly.
The thing with that is that they are in a horrible spot right now. They don't have the talent to compete nor do they have a pool of A+ prospects that are coming up. Unless Johnny specifically just wants to play in Philly to be closer to his family, which is his prerogative, he can't be naïve to the fact that they don't have a lot going for them in the near to medium term.

[flambers]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

The next option is to not spend big money on another UFA. So yes, they can absolutely wait.

My guess they will make a trade, and acquire another forward.

They won't wait long.

(of course who knows if he is leaving...)

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I see some Islander fans who are convinced Johnny is signing with them and it makes no sense. They have an overpaid medicore roster and just fired their HOF coach. Lou will make him get a buzz cut. I just can’t see it.

Philly makes sense because it is his hometown, his wife’s hometown, his good buddy Kevin Hayes is there, Torts is probably a plus for Johnny based on how he plays with hard nosed coaches but they just don’t have the cap space and have to make multiple moves that could result in weakening an already weak roster.

Jersey likely makes the most sense. 2 good centers locked into deals, many other strong prospects in the system and cap space to make moves happen.

Calgary still makes the most sense for hockey reasons, money reasons, legacy, comfort, but the worst option for being close to home

NYI has a Team Canada quality D-pair who are both 27 and locked up for 7 & 8 years at very nice numbers. Plus Dobson and now Romanov, that's a really nice blue line for years to come.

2 good goalies - not a ton of term, but they can probably lock down Sorokin if they want to.

Barzal isn't as good as Lindholm [yet], but Nelson-Pageau is probably a better 2-3 punch that Backlund-Monahan at this point, and at a slightly lower AAV.

Palmieri is their most regrettable contract at this point, but he could easily bounce back. Everyone else is pretty much fair value to their production, even in the bad last year.

They'd need to make a bit more room since they need to re-sign Dobson, but I don't think it would be too hard to move Bailey or maybe Varlamov.

[bluejays]

If I'm going to take a flyer on where Johnny signs I'd say Seattle. Cap space, a nice city from what I've heard (never visited personally), and a chance to be "the man" marketing wise. Winning isn't everything, it's also what's in it for him. I think there's a chance there, personally.

[Domoic]

Originally Posted by fleury

If I'm going to take a flyer on where Johnny signs I'd say Seattle. Cap space, a nice city from what I've heard (never visited personally), and a chance to be "the man" marketing wise. Winning isn't everything, it's also what's in it for him. I think there's a chance there, personally.

Lol

[FormerPresJamesTaylor]

Yeah, I really hate that take. Gaudreau is "the man" here, in Calgary. He's extremely popular.

[calgARI]

I could see a shorter deal somewhere, maybe even lower salary somewhere. Like what Hall did. Surprised there hasn’t been more speculation on that possibility. But I still think he will re-sign with Calgary.

[midniteowl]

Originally Posted by fleury

If I'm going to take a flyer on where Johnny signs I'd say Seattle. Cap space, a nice city from what I've heard (never visited personally), and a chance to be "the man" marketing wise. Winning isn't everything, it's also what's in it for him. I think there's a chance there, personally.

[NOISIA]

Originally Posted by calgARI

I could see a shorter deal somewhere, maybe even lower salary somewhere. Like what Hall did.

And that cost Hall $$$

[FormerPresJamesTaylor]

Originally Posted by calgARI

I could see a shorter deal somewhere, maybe even lower salary somewhere. Like what Hall did. But I still think he will re-sign with Calgary.

Taylor Hall was coming off a 10 goal 33 point season. Johnny Gaudreau is coming off 40 goals and 115 points; he's not doing that .

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

NYI has a Team Canada quality D-pair who are both 27 and locked up for 7 & 8 years at very nice numbers. Plus Dobson and now Romanov, that's a really nice blue line for years to come.

2 good goalies - not a ton of term, but they can probably lock down Sorokin if they want to.

Barzal isn't as good as Lindholm [yet], but Nelson-Pageau is probably a better 2-3 punch that Backlund-Monahan at this point, and at a slightly lower AAV.

Palmieri is their most regrettable contract at this point, but he could easily bounce back. Everyone else is pretty much fair value to their production, even in the bad last year.

They'd need to make a bit more room since they need to re-sign Dobson, but I don't think it would be too hard to move Bailey or maybe Varlamov.

Lameriello doesn't usually go crazy on outside free agents but he did sign that completely bonkers 15 year, 100 million dollar Kovalchuk contract back in the day.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by MrMike

We all know what’s really going to happen. He’s going to go to Vegas.

Not that I think it would happen, but a player called Johnny Hockey who plays like Johnny does would kind of be a perfect fit for an entertainment town like Vegas.

[activeStick]

Man, if some of the posters were as half glass full for the Flames as they are for some of these other worse teams in the league, things would be a lot sunnier around here!

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by activeStick

Man, if some of the posters were as half glass full for the Flames as they are for some of these other worse teams in the league, things would be a lot sunnier around here!

I get it though, given the history of this franchise I get how posters look to the negative to protect themselves from disappointment. I could never do that though. I think there is more than enough evidence for me to be fully confident JG stays in Calgary.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by activeStick

Man, if some of the posters were as half glass full for the Flames as they are for some of these other worse teams in the league, things would be a lot sunnier around here!

We have about 29 more hours to be glass half full for the Flames. At that point, we can only sign Johnny for 7 years and lose our 8 year advantage.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

Lameriello doesn't usually go crazy on outside free agents but he did sign that completely bonkers 15 year, 100 million dollar Kovalchuk contract back in the day.

Forgot this was actually initially a 17 year contract for 104 million but the league cancelled it because it was too absurd in the cap avoidance that even the NHL decided had to do something about it.

The 15 year contract would still have 3 years left on it if Kovalchuk hadn't 'retired' and went back to Russia and the Devils are still small paying a recapture penalty on this contract until 24-25.

Also Kovalchuk wasn't an outside free agent, the Devils got him at the trade deadline. I think the biggest outside free agent he's signed is Patrick Marleau with the Leafs.

[The Boy Wonder]

I could truly happily go either of two ways with this situation.

1) resign both JG and chuckie and ride the lightning and try to get a cup right now

2) lose JG and then trade chuckie, and then we’re out from under the inevitable collapse of chuckie skating ability come age 29

Both are fine approaches, and I will change my opinion on both players according to what happens next couple days

Not as pleased with option 3) lose JG sign chuckie long term, bodes not well

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

I get it though, given the history of this franchise I get how posters look to the negative to protect themselves from disappointment. I could never do that though. I think there is more than enough evidence for me to be fully confident JG stays in Calgary.

I would feel a lot better about your confidence if this scenario wasn’t so damn close to the Islanders situation with Tavares where he held similar beliefs until he signed elsewhere. Even hearing the Serivali’s of the world compare Gaudreau to the Tavares situation today