Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

This thread is 99% people talking out of their asses. The particulars of Monahan's situation are certainly speculation, but speculation less wild than a lot of what has already been discussed in here. Either way, all of this talking out of our asses can still be kept civil.

The amount of ass talking is higher when we stray away from talking about hockey into speculating about injuries and the correct medical treatment of them.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Toonage

Semi related but when it comes to players wanting out, Blake Coleman Immediately comes to mind. Referenced playing with Gaudreau when he signed, vocal in trying to get Johnny to stay, etc. I could see him asking to move.

I also wondered about Markstrom

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

If the Flames have offered Johnny $88 million and he hasn't signed, then he's probably gonzo.

I doubt he gets $88 million over 7 years ($12.5 million AAV) in free agency, but I guess we haven't seen a player put up 115 points and go straight to UFA in the cap era yet, so maybe I'm dead wrong.

Or he's using his leverage which is time.

If Flames started at $9.5M, then went to $10M (rumored on CP by a poster), and are now willing to go to $11M...that's the result of Gaudreau using his leverage of the 10PM deadline on the 12th.

I still think if Gaudreau truly was deadset on heading back east to NJ or PHI he wouldn't have strung the Flames along and would have told him his intentions.

He was always going to wait until the last minute to sign, with the hopes that the Flames would panic and negotiate against himself. In the end I feel like it was always going to be between $80M and $88M to get Johnny on an 8 year team, this is just the final haggling and negotiating IMO.

If Flames are truly willing to go to $11M x 8 then IMO this will get done, just depends on if the Flames have actually made that offer yet "or are willing" to go there.

The timing of this game of chicken is key because both sides need to move to get the deal done, and both actually lose if this gets past the deadline tomorrow.

[Heavy Jack]

Seravelli saying that Travis Konecny could be an option for Philly to move if they want to land Johnny, more so than JVR who’s proving a hard contract to move.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Right. So, much like pretty much every other insider with news about what is going on, this is more just stuff thrown at the wall to see what sticks. Withy all the conflicting rumours out there I think it is a solid indication that no one outside of the tiny circle of negotiators has the faintest clue about what is happening, nor how this will turn out.

I don't disagree but was posting what I heard.

What are the conflicting rumors though? It seems pretty clear that most of the insiders are stating there is no deal and we continue to get closer. The rumors of counter offers etc are coming from posters here who may or may not be telling the truth. Treliving has stated he thinks a deal can be done so that is important but I think the messaging from people being paid to follow the sport and have sources is fairly aligned.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

While the Flames may in fact be willing to go as high as 11 that will be their final pitch I think which would be tmrw imo. If 11 was Gaudreau's counter offer why would you not try and see if you can't add extra bonuses or other things to get him down to 10 or 10.5 in the time you have? If you can't you can always cave and do the 11 deal tmrw.

Other than signing bonuses, which are really just part of the salary paid at the beginning of the year, there are no bonuses allowed.

[Toonage]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

I also wondered about Markstrom

That would hurt more than Coleman.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by devo22

I'd be up for "a different approach", but my fear is they'll just overpay a UFA to make up for losing Johnny and try to keep this window open until Tkachuk forces their hands next year. Pretty much the worst scenario. Hope it plays out differently.

Even this "worst case scenario" is not all that bad, though. If the team turns out be pushed into a rebuild, there are plenty of valuable recoupable assets that can be moved at the TD and leading up to the 2023 Draft, even without Gaudreau or Tkachuk. It's so weird to me that many seem to think that these are the only players of any value on the roster.

[TherapyforGlencross]

If Johnny leaves, I have nothing to thank him for... good riddance then. Disappointing he wouldn't want to stay for another year of Daryll Sutter, the best coach he will ever have.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Heavy Jack

Seravelli saying that Travis Konecny could be an option for Philly to move if they want to land Johnny, more so than JVR who’s proving a hard contract to move.

If Johnny came to the team today and said his heart is set on Philly he just needs to be closer to family, happy wife/happy life type stuff then I would hope the Flames contact Philly about a sign and trade for Johnny at 8 years + whatever to get Konecny back. Flames need to add just not sure what it would take?

[Heavy Jack]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I don't disagree but was posting what I heard.

What are the conflicting rumors though? It seems pretty clear that most of the insiders are stating there is no deal and we continue to get closer. The rumors of counter offers etc are coming from posters here who may or may not be telling the truth. Treliving has stated he thinks a deal can be done so that is important but I think the messaging from people being paid to follow the sport and have sources is fairly aligned.

You have Friedman saying as of today that the Flames offer is 9.5x8 and that their not crazy about going higher than that. Then you have Seravelli saying the flames are willing to go 11x8 but Johnny wouldn’t likely accept that. Add in all the CP rumours and JG’s family members liking tweets that are about JG staying and it’s becoming a mixed bag with no ability to really know where the negotiations are truly at.

[Toonage]

If Gaudreau wants Philly and a deal could be made, you could do worse in a face saving move than paying Konecny and Provorov for a bit more than you would pay Johnny .

[Britflamesfan]

What a state this club has managed to get into. JG proved this year that he is a top player and will need to be payed like one to stay. My concern is I believe the managers job rests on the next few weeks and I am concerned he will throw stupid money at JG to keep him. Whilst I believe he is a top player he is not good enough to completely take over a game in the playoffs like some of the other top stars around. I really do not want JG for 8 years taking up so much of the cap that the rest of the team is stuffed. We have other very good players that we will need to re-sign in the near future. If we re-sign JG and MT to big contracts the team is going to be stuffed even this year as we will have little money left. It will certainly not be as good as last years team, no way.

[devo22]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Even this "worst case scenario" is not all that bad, though. If the team turns out be pushed into a rebuild, there are plenty of valuable recoupable assets that can be moved at the TD and leading up to the 2023 Draft, even without Gaudreau or Tkachuk. It's so weird to me that many seem to think that these are the only players of any value on the roster.

for sure. My fear is rather whether the Flames would ever entertain moving those assets instead of going for it without Gaudreau and Tkachuk.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Toonage

That would hurt more than Coleman.

Yes, but that is what you want in a rebuild, no?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Britflamesfan

What a state this club has managed to get into. JG proved this year that he is a top player and will need to be payed like one to stay. My concern is I believe the managers job rests on the next few weeks and I am concerned he will throw stupid money at JG to keep him. Whilst I believe he is a top player he is not good enough to completely take over a game in the playoffs like some of the other top stars around. I really do not want JG for 8 years taking up so much of the cap that the rest of the team is stuffed. We have other very good players that we will need to re-sign in the near future. If we re-sign JG and MT to big contracts the team is going to be stuffed even this year as we will have little money left. It will certainly not be as good as last years team, no way.

I don't think Treliving's job is on the line at all. And while he's made his share of mistakes, none of them were out of panic.

[Duffalufagus]

Originally Posted by dustygoon

Going through Capfriendly numbers...sorting by percent of cap at time of signing and then filtering for.....

- wingers
- signed in last few years

You can see why Flames could be offering that 9.5mm number (11.5% of cap), and will need to come up.

Marner isn't a great comparable i don't think since he was 22 and it was a 6 year deal (13.4% of cap).

Kucherov, Stone and Point were all recently signed wingers near JG's age (i'm assuming Point is more winger than centre) at $9.5mm and were all just under 12% of cap, but those are tax friendly states, so we need to be higher.

The best comparable for the upper range is Panarin's 7 year deal proform'd to an 8 year equivalent. That equates to $10.14mm or 12.5% of cap at time of signing. That means Johnny would be $10.3mm using 12.5% of today's cap. We can argue who is better, but i think $10.5mm would be a reasonable upper limit.

That is of course unless Johnny's comps should include centers.

If another team is going to beat $10.5mm, then they need to be offering +$12mm over 7 years which is over 14.5% of the cap. Only guys signed to that dough in modern era? McD and Matthews (Toews, Kane and Crosby are over 14.5% but those are older contracts).

Sorry for all the numbo jumbo, but just trying to frame this argument....I think there is a good chance that Johnny comes down. I don't see another team beating our offer if we go to $10.5mm.

The offer has to go to 10.5x8 tomorrow night. he is worth that and you might as well put all your chips on the table at that point.

[Toonage]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Yes, but that is what you want in a rebuild, no?

It is. Just hard to imagine this last year of Sutter with him coaching a skeleton crew, launching a rebuild. Yet it could well come down to that.

[Heavy Jack]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Even this "worst case scenario" is not all that bad, though. If the team turns out be pushed into a rebuild, there are plenty of valuable recoupable assets that can be moved at the TD and leading up to the 2023 Draft, even without Gaudreau or Tkachuk. It's so weird to me that many seem to think that these are the only players of any value on the roster.

I think the fear is the franchise has proven time and again it’s unwillingness to commit to a scorched earth rebuild, hanging on to tradeable assets long past their sell-high date. Maybe that would change with speculation now that many would want out if Johnny elects to move on but who knows. Personally just hoping this isn’t the end of what was probably the most enjoyable brand of Flames hockey I’ve seen in my life as a flames fan. To only get one season of a team like that would be beyond demoralizing lol.

[bigrangy]

I’m confident that if Gaudreau leaves it won’t be a money issue. If he’s gone it’s because he wants to play somewhere else. And this decision was probably already made if it’s the way it’s going to happen.