Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[BeltlineFan]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

They will not rebuild but it’s no longer a good team without Johnny. Borderline playoff team if that.

For what it's worth JFresh projects the Flames at second in the Pacific and third in the west if Gaudreau walks.

It needs to be taken with a grain of salt since it has teams missing players, for example Colorado and Toronto probably have replacement level goalies at the moment.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1545784172236587008

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Well, no. Tkachuk and the Flames can also continue to negotiate a new contract. Why would he just settle for his QO? Even if he had every intention of becoming a UFA next year, it seems incredibly unlikely to me that he would just settle on his QO right away.

As usual, this is just you running around and screaming at everyone that your hair is on fire.

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And why would Tkachuk do what you're suggesting? Why would he bother going through the motions of negotiating a one-year deal when he can just accept the qualifying offer - which is a one-year deal - and then be available to all 32 teams next summer? Do you think the Flames are going to sweeten the pot in any way for a guy that is pushing to be an UFA next year? What would be their benefit in bumping the price up if the intention is to sign that one-year deal and go achieve the UFA status?

[Canada 02]

what are the rules for QO? Can it be 7 years, $9M, or can it only be 1 year term?

Is arbitration an option to buy time?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

Disagree, Gaudreau was in on 40% of this teams offense, he stirs the drink

The offense is not going to drop by 40%. Nothing even close to that. Someone else (or multiple players) will "stir the drink." And even if not quite as effectively, the team will still be able to score. Even if they lost 50% of Gaudreau's production (which I think is incredibly unlikely) the Flames would still have the sixth best goal differential in the Conference, and likely second or third in the division.

When a player is moved, the value of his production is not reduced to nothing. We have seen this happen every time when a player changes teams—offensive production never drops as steeply as you imagine.

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[dammage79]

72 hours of unbridled anxiety on tap!

And the most important week of Trees career.

Here. We. Go.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Canada 02

what are the rules for QO? Can it be 7 years, $9M, or can it only be 1 year term?

Is arbitration an option to buy time?

One year for QO.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by Canada 02

what are the rules for QO? Can it be 7 years, $9M, or can it only be 1 year term?

Is arbitration an option to buy time?

A qualifying offer is a one-year contract offer extended to restricted free agent to retain the player's negotiating rights. For a player of Tkachuk's contract level is means the Flames must offer at least the same amount as earned last season ($9M) to retain his rights. If the Flames fail to extend the qualifying offer, Tkachuk immediately becomes an UFA. The Flames could elect to take Tkachuk to arbitration and hope the arbiter agrees with them and awards a lesser salary, but the minimum the arbiter could award is 85% of what Tkachuk earned last season, and then only for a max two-year contract. Most contracts awarded are one-year deals, and most arbitrations are settled before the arbiter has a chance to force an award. I don't see the arbitration setting as a means to buy time, but the Flames could go that route if they honestly believe that setting the Gaudreau contract situation will have influence on the Tkachuk contract.

[GioforPM]

An arbitration would piss Tkachuk off and guarantee he won’t extend, plus probably sour him into not playing particularly well, though it would be another contract year. If the Flames want to move him, they’d qualify him maybe with a heavy signing bonus (not sure if that’s how you can do it) and make him attractive as a rental.

[Flamesfan05]

At this point, the Flames need to sign Tkachuk to a long term deal or he is going UFA next year.

Sure they can trade him but the return is probably much less after he goes UFA

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

At this point, the Flames need to sign Tkachuk to a long term deal or he is going UFA next year.

Sure they can trade him but the return is probably much less after he goes UFA

Yes. I am sure the return for an unrestricted free agent (nothing) is much less than it would be for a player who is still under contract (something). Well done.

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[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

At this point, the Flames need to sign Tkachuk to a long term deal or he is going UFA next year.

Sure they can trade him but the return is probably much less after he goes UFA

Thanks tips.

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

The offense is not going to drop by 40%. Nothing even close to that. Someone else (or multiple players) will "stir the drink." And even if not quite as effectively, the team will still be able to score. Even if they lost 50% of Gaudreau's production (which I think is incredibly unlikely) the Flames would still have the sixth best goal differential in the Conference, and likely second or third in the division.

When a player is moved, the value of his production is not reduced to nothing. We have seen this happen every time when a player changes teams—offensive production never drops as steeply as you imagine.

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I don’t know. You lose Johnny, not only you lose his production, you also lose his impact on the success of other players. Guys like Tkachuk and Lindholm depend on him. The whole PP run through him as we have no #1D. Team can also focus on stopping Tkachuk and Mangi instead. So many negatives.

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Yes. I am sure the return for an unrestricted free agent (nothing) is much less than it would be for a player who is still under contract (something). Well done.

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I meant after he qualified to go UFA next year

[dammage79]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

I don’t know. You lose Johnny, not only you lose his production, you also lose his impact on the success of other players. Guys like Tkachuk and Lindholm depend on him. The whole PP run through him as we have no #1D. Team can also focus on stopping Tkachuk and Mangi instead. So many negatives.

I disagree with this sentiment. Yeah Johnny produces with them but you cannot deny he wouldn't be as successful as he was without them specifically either. Lindholms a Selke level #1 C and Chucky is second to none at what he does.

I just don't think the team as whole will drop as starkly as some of you want to believe with Johnny gone.

[getbak]

A Qualifying Offer is just paperwork to maintain the player's rights. Players don't often sign them as written, especially players of Tkachuk's calibre.

Another thing to keep in mind is filing for arbitration takes away a player's options of signing an Offer Sheet, so Tkachuk and Mangiapane might decide the Offer Sheet threat is a better tactic than arbitration.

[dammage79]

Offer sheets for either may be a blessing in disguise for the Flames too. Takes all the negotiating power away from Tkachuk. And anything he would sign would guarantee a large haul of draft capital.

I dont much like it, but from a person who doesn't like the idea of having chucky sign the 1 year qo so he can just walk away at the end of the year. It's a silver lining.

And as for Mangiapane. He's got the short straw no matter what happens. He's the last at the feeding trough for FA forwards

[flambers]

Originally Posted by getbak

A Qualifying Offer is just paperwork to maintain the player's rights. Players don't often sign them as written, especially players of Tkachuk's calibre.

Another thing to keep in mind is filing for arbitration takes away a player's options of signing an Offer Sheet, so Tkachuk and Mangiapane might decide the Offer Sheet threat is a better tactic than arbitration.

True, however most players don't have the option of accepting a QO

Then once the 1 year lapses become a UFA

Its a serious card for Tkachuk and his agent if he wants to leave for another team

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by BeltlineFan

For what it's worth JFresh projects the Flames at second in the Pacific and third in the west if Gaudreau walks.

It needs to be taken with a grain of salt since it has teams missing players, for example Colorado and Toronto probably have replacement level goalies at the moment.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1545784172236587008

So I am supposed to believe the Islanders will be 1st and Minny is better than the Stanley Cup champ?

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by dammage79

I disagree with this sentiment. Yeah Johnny produces with them but you cannot deny he wouldn't be as successful as he was without them specifically either. Lindholms a Selke level #1 C and Chucky is second to none at what he does.

I just don't think the team as whole will drop as starkly as some of you want to believe with Johnny gone.

Fair. We just have different beliefs. Only time will tell.
Hopefully we don’t have to deal with that

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

I don’t know. You lose Johnny, not only you lose his production, you also lose his impact on the success of other players. Guys like Tkachuk and Lindholm depend on him. The whole PP run through him as we have no #1D. Team can also focus on stopping Tkachuk and Mangi instead. So many negatives.

The last year John Tavares played in NYI they scored 264 goals and Tavares factored in to 32% of the team's production. The following year they scored 228 goals, which is 36 fewer, and accounts for a loss of 43% of his production.

The last full year of Eichel's time in Buffalo the Sabres scored 195 goals, and he factored in to 40% of the team's total offense. In the time since he last played in Buffalo and when the trade was completed the Sabres scored 313 goals in 115 games. This amounts to 223 goals in an 82-game season, which is about nine fewer than when Eichel played, or a reduction of 13% of his production.

The point is, we can't know how Gaudreau's loss will be compensated for, but chances are very low that the entirety of his contribution to the team's production will completely disappear. As I mentioned above, even if there is such a dramatic loss to the tune of 50%—which is incredibly unlikely—the Flames would still almost certainly be a top-six team in the West. They would still be very well coached. They would still get excellent goaltending. They would still get scoring from multiple good forwards like Tkachuk, Lindholm, Mangiapane, Backlund, and Toffoli.