Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[SuperMatt18]

It’s a game of chicken at this point.

To me both sides know that they want the relationship to continue…it’s just each side trying to get the best deal possible

[Freeway]

The Flames know which players drive team revenue the most. I don't think they'd bat an eye at going heavier on bonuses or overall compensation for somebody like Gaudreau.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

So if it turns out he doesn't want to play here... rather than lose him for nothing, could we do a sign and trade? Like it's still in his best interest to sign for 8 years with us with the understanding that we'd trade him to wherever he wants to go.

Sign with Philly for 7x11.5 vs sign with us for 8x11.5 and then we trade him to Philly.

Edit: Even better... sign with us for 8x11.5 and a list of 5 teams he'd be willing to go to. Then we start a bidding war.

Sign and trade is basically fantasy in the NHL, and yet it gets brought up quite frequently as an option by fans. It happens in the NBA for sure.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

It’s a game of chicken at this point.

To me both sides know that they want the relationship to continue…it’s just each side trying to get the best deal possible

The Flames need him more than he needs them. Unless he would really despise moving somewhere else, the Flames don't have any leverage.

I think he could get $11.5 AAV on a 7 year deal if he becomes a UFA and the Flames need to at least match that. Just my opinion, but I think that is his market value, and to be honest, I would have some anxiety giving a 29 year old player that kind of contract. I think people are right that Gaudreau could be the kind of player that remains productive into his 30s, but it is still a pretty big gamble.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by OILFAN #81

If he makes it to market which I still don't think he will, I wonder if a team like Seattle throws crazy money at him ($11.75+). Seattle just drafted Wright and have Beniers as well up front. Not saying he would sign there or be interested at all but I could see if he gets to market, Seattle desperately trying.

I don't see $11.75AAV as crazy at all for his market value. When's the last time a 115 point superstar entered free agency (teams rarely let it happen)? When you adjust for todays dollars over UFA contracts from years past, I see Calgary needing to be at $11AAV over 8 years and the rest of the league easily being at $12mil AAV over 7.

$11.75 AAV will absolutely not be a "crazy" offer if he elects free agency. It will be a smattering of teams around that figure and above.

[jayswin]

I see it as

Calgary - $10.5 - $11mil AAV over 8 years

Teams in the the east that he desires - $11.5-$12mil AAV over 7 years

Outlier teams further from his home but they still want to take a long shot at luring him - $12 - $13mil AAV over 7 years

[MrMike]

Originally Posted by jayswin

I don't see $11.75AAV as crazy at all for his market value. When's the last time a 115 point superstar entered free agency (teams rarely let it happen)? When you adjust for todays dollars over UFA contracts from years past, I see Calgary needing to be at $11AAV over 8 years and the rest of the league easily being at $12mil AAV over 7.

$11.75 AAV will absolutely not be a "crazy" offer if he elects free agency. It will be a smattering of teams around that figure and above.

Look at what Philly handed Ristolinen, look at what Nurse and Seth Jones got, look what Panarin got and I put them right beside each other in skill level. Someone will definitely over pay. Columbus would love a star.

[SuperMatt18]

I still think this lands at $10.5 x 8

That’s $84 M total value which would be the equivalent of $12M x 7 in terms of total contract value for another team to match. Even a team offers the Panarin contract ($11.6x7) that’s $81.2M.

Even if Gaudreau thinks he could get another contract after this one at 37 I think you take the highest guaranteed money.

Flames are at $9.5M, sounds like Johnny might be around $11. Probably will meet at $10.25-$10.5 and get this done the evening of July 12th. With the signing bonus and structure of the contract being important too.

[Ferarri]

What happened to the poster that said a counter offer of 11 million was made? Any more information coming out of that post?

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by MrMike

Look at what Philly handed Ristolinen, look at what Nurse and Seth Jones got, look what Panarin got and I put them right beside each other in skill level. Someone will definitely over pay. Columbus would love a star.

Detroit is one to watch. They have some of their best players on entry level contracts and probably want to push up the window to try and take advantage of that.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I still think this lands at $10.5 x 8

That’s $84 M total value which would be the equivalent of $12M x 7 in terms of total contract value for another team to match. Even if Gaudreau thinks he could get another contract after this one at 37 I think you take the highest guaranteed money.

Flames are at $9.5M, sounds like Johnny might be around $11. Probably will meet at $10.25-$10.5 and get this done the evening of July 12th

I hope it lands at $10.5 after the teams meet in the middle (if the rumour of Johnny's side countering at $11k is true), but also I would be exstatic at this point to literally just take Johnny's counter offer of $11k over 8 years and call it a day.

We have too much to lose in losing our superstar player. I do not want to see this franchise lose him and then either a) lose Tkachuck in a year or b) sign him to mega dollars cause we already lost one superstar and then basically sign everyone left over on the team minus Gaudreau and that's our team going forward.

Because one of those two options is very likley if we lose Gaudreau and both suck so, so, so bad.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by MrMike

Look at what Philly handed Ristolinen, look at what Nurse and Seth Jones got, look what Panarin got and I put them right beside each other in skill level. Someone will definitely over pay. Columbus would love a star.

I see Panarin as his comparable as far as salary goes, if only because he's the latest superstar to get a huge UFA contract.

[MrMike]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

Detroit is one to watch. They have some of their best players on entry level contracts and probably want to push up the window to try and take advantage of that.

I wouldn’t expect Yzerman to try and jump start a rebuild there. I think they are slow and steady, wouldn’t expect any real long contracts in my opinion.

[iggy_oi]

Originally Posted by MrMike

Look at what Philly handed Ristolinen, look at what Nurse and Seth Jones got, look what Panarin got and I put them right beside each other in skill level. Someone will definitely over pay. Columbus would love a star.

Columbus doesn’t seem like a team that ever wants to pay for a star though.

[MrMike]

Originally Posted by iggy_oi

Columbus doesn’t seem like a team that ever wants to pay for a star though.

And who would choose Columbus, I think it would have to be substantially higher than a Flames offer.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by MrMike

I wouldn’t expect Yzerman to try and jump start a rebuild there. I think they are slow and steady, wouldn’t expect any real long contracts in my opinion.

Gaudreau would not be premature. He's a superstar player available for free, that will likley be a superstar for at least 5-6 more seasons aka through the summit of the rebuild and beyond. That's a player a rebuilding teams takes on in a second if he's willing to sign there.

[Sylvanfan]

Columbus desperately wants a star to take their money.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

Well, if you take the angle that Gaudreau really does want to stay here over go anywhere else and the things the Flames can offer that others can’t means something to him, then he also has to stay cool. IF that’s the case, the Flames can up the pressure by waiting and putting in a bigger offer near the end, giving Gaudreau less time to weigh it against the potential of what’s out there.

I’m guessing the Flames will break first anyway, but if Gaudreau wants to stay and at the same time wants the best deal he can get from the Flames, he needs to keep composure anyway.

If both the Flames and Gaudreau want a contract done, then it is absolutely a negotiation on pretty even terms.

Gaudreau simply could not be in a better position and it is not close to even terms. His plan B is so much better than what the Flames have for plan B, even if his strong preference is to stay here.

BATNA assuming Gaudreau prefers staying in Calgary - sign a $80 million deal with a team close to home. Can still win a championship, get his jersey retired, yadda, yadda. Maybe he loses the chance to set all the franchise records I guess.

BATNA for the Flames - salary cap space to sign their remaining players.

It’s the reverse of his last contract situation.

[Macho0978]

I can see Detriot going all in agressive this off season. They could win they cup very soon if Husso solidfies the net with some of the ELC's they have. Mo Seider is the next big thing. Raymond is unreal too. They have millions to spend and more picks/prospects coming

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by 442scotty

The wait for this to end is painfully annoying

Not as bad as waiting until October 10th like last time.