Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Owning a sports franchise is not about making a profit, it's about long-term capital appreciation.

With respect to operating profit, the Flames tend to oscillate around breaking even, not running large profits for the owners - in fact, I strongly suspect any any year-to-year profits they do generate, tend to stay in the business.

So suggesting that the owners want to 'get in the playoffs and get some additional revenue' just doesn't wash, IMO. If your concern/goal is long term capital appreciation, then the best way to run the franchise is to focus on being the strongest franchise possible, to grow the fanbase as much as possible. And the way to do that is playoff success. In other words, be a well managed franchise. (A strong fanbase and stable organization, along with a good building, also solidifies and maximizes regular season revenue, which is also vital.)

If their goal / business model is to sneak into the playoffs whenever possible, in order to get a few home dates of revenue, frustrating the fanbase, and limiting their long term success along the way, then they are idiots, because that is a lousy way to grow the franchise.

Spoiler: they are not idiots.

What leads you to believe that your last paragraph isn’t more true than your 2nd paragraph?


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[DJones]

Oiler fans are way more hardcore than Flames fans. Just the reality of the situation.

If Calgary sucked for a decade, the arena would be empty. I don't know how they managed to consistently sell out.

I was all but checked out during the 2010-2012 seasons.

[Cleveland Steam Whistle]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Wit the immense increase in franchise values, all these clubs are profitable ventures.

I don't know. Take a look at the Oilers franchise evaluation over the last 10 years. Take a look at which year it jumped substantially. The year they completed the arena. The bulk of the franchise evaluation seems to be tied to the arena asset (the same will happen with the Flames when the new rink happens). Franchise valuations don't equal return on investment or profitability. It can of course indicate return on investment, but in the Oilers case, they just happen to have a valuable building and piece of real-estate now, that cost them a crap tone to build.

People don't tie up 100's of millions of dollars to squeak out a few million in profit best case scenario. These hockey clubs, Oilers, Flames otherwise are likely the worst investments these very smart businessmen make. They do it for other reasons.

Just do some quick math on some items we know. Might be a few years out of date, but:
- Average ticket price in Calgary was around $60 USD.
- Saddledome capacity, 19,289.

If you assume a sell out every night, which doesn't happen:
19,289 x $60 US = $1.16M in revenue collected for each home game

They play 41 home games a year (plus say 6 pre season so round up to 47)

47 x $1.16M = $54.52M in revenue every year from ticket sales.

The cost of the Flames roster in one year is $82.5M

So just with the roster and ticket sales they are already ~$30M in the hole a year.

Of course that's not the full picture. Revenue missing:
- Concession sales
- Jersey's etc..
- Broadcast revenue

But also, expenses missing:
- CSE management
- Operations expenses (staffing the dome, everything else)
- Hockey operations
- Advertising etc...

Point being, given the hole is already $30M on ticket sales vs. roster cost........not to hard to see that this is not a cash cow for the owners. It's why we always here they need those home playoff dates just to be profitable.

[stone hands]

Owning a sports franchise is for the prestige of owning a sports franchise. The type of person with the resources to buy and operate a sports team probably looks to maximize value in anything they do to be sure,but it's like a billionaires version of fixing a rusty muscle car in your garage or learning to paint vs a real true investment vehicle since someone with that much money could make more money in many other more guaranteed ways

[Moneyhands23]

Originally Posted by Bingo

I'm pretty calm.

You suggested I did a drive by. Not the case at all.

Simple sarcasm to a silly suggestion isn't a drive by.

Okay, fair enough

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by DJones

Oiler fans are way more hardcore than Flames fans. Just the reality of the situation.

If Calgary sucked for a decade, the arena would be empty. I don't know how they managed to consistently sell out.

I was all but checked out during the 2010-2012 seasons.

I don't know about more hardcore but they are probably double the size of a fanbase

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by Cleveland Steam Whistle

I don't know. Take a look at the Oilers franchise evaluation over the last 10 years. Take a look at which year it jumped substantially. The year they completed the arena. The bulk of the franchise evaluation seems to be tied to the arena asset (the same will happen with the Flames when the new rink happens). Franchise valuations don't equal return on investment or profitability. It can of course indicate return on investment, but in the Oilers case, they just happen to have a valuable building and piece of real-estate now, that cost them a crap tone to build.

People don't tie up 100's of millions of dollars to squeak out a few million in profit best case scenario. These hockey clubs, Oilers, Flames otherwise are likely the worst investments these very smart businessmen make. They do it for other reasons.

Just do some quick math on some items we know. Might be a few years out of date, but:
- Average ticket price in Calgary was around $60 USD.
- Saddledome capacity, 19,289.

If you assume a sell out every night, which doesn't happen:
19,289 x $60 US = $1.16M in revenue collected for each home game

They play 41 home games a year (plus say 6 pre season so round up to 47)

47 x $1.16M = $54.52M in revenue every year from ticket sales.

The cost of the Flames roster in one year is $82.5M

So just with the roster and ticket sales they are already ~$30M in the hole a year.

Of course that's not the full picture. Revenue missing:
- Concession sales
- Jersey's etc..
- Broadcast revenue

But also, expenses missing:
- CSE management
- Operations expenses (staffing the dome, everything else)
- Hockey operations
- Advertising etc...

Point being, given the hole is already $30M on ticket sales vs. roster cost........not to hard to see that this is not a cash cow for the owners. It's why we always here they need those home playoff dates just to be profitable.

Why do napkin math when the numbers are actually available? But sure, ok, use these absolutely useless data points you've created on a whim to prove your point.

[DJones]

Originally Posted by Bonded

I don't know about more hardcore but they are probably double the size of a fanbase

Plenty of big fanbases stop showing up when the team sucks. Hell, I think that's what fans should do. Especially when its management incompetence. Don't reward it.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Cleveland Steam Whistle

I don't know. Take a look at the Oilers franchise evaluation over the last 10 years. Take a look at which year it jumped substantially. The year they completed the arena. The bulk of the franchise evaluation seems to be tied to the arena asset (the same will happen with the Flames when the new rink happens). Franchise valuations don't equal return on investment or profitability. It can of course indicate return on investment, but in the Oilers case, they just happen to have a valuable building and piece of real-estate now, that cost them a crap tone to build.

People don't tie up 100's of millions of dollars to squeak out a few million in profit best case scenario. These hockey clubs, Oilers, Flames otherwise are likely the worst investments these very smart businessmen make. They do it for other reasons.

Just do some quick math on some items we know. Might be a few years out of date, but:
- Average ticket price in Calgary was around $60 USD.
- Saddledome capacity, 19,289.

If you assume a sell out every night, which doesn't happen:
19,289 x $60 US = $1.16M in revenue collected for each home game

They play 41 home games a year (plus say 6 pre season so round up to 47)

47 x $1.16M = $54.52M in revenue every year from ticket sales.

The cost of the Flames roster in one year is $82.5M

So just with the roster and ticket sales they are already ~$30M in the hole a year.

Of course that's not the full picture. Revenue missing:
- Concession sales
- Jersey's etc..
- Broadcast revenue

But also, expenses missing:
- CSE management
- Operations expenses (staffing the dome, everything else)
- Hockey operations
- Advertising etc...

Point being, given the hole is already $30M on ticket sales vs. roster cost........not to hard to see that this is not a cash cow for the owners. It's why we always here they need those home playoff dates just to be profitable.

Not that it matters, but there are 3 home pre-season games per season.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by DJones

Oiler fans are way more hardcore than Flames fans. Just the reality of the situation.

If Calgary sucked for a decade, the arena would be empty. I don't know how they managed to consistently sell out.

I was all but checked out during the 2010-2012 seasons.

That just means they're more dumb and easier to string along on false promise year to year. Not more hard-core.

Be real now.

Through their ####iest years they still thought they were going to be good. All because of the terrible propaganda and Oil Change nonsense.

[Flabbibulin]

Originally Posted by DJones

Oiler fans are way more hardcore than Flames fans. Just the reality of the situation.

If Calgary sucked for a decade, the arena would be empty. I don't know how they managed to consistently sell out.

I was all but checked out during the 2010-2012 seasons.

Oilers fans aren’t more hardcore, there are just more of them. And when the Oilers suck for 10+ years, the alternative is cow tipping and WWE. If the Flames were to suck for that long, well the sky is the limit for other things to enjoy in life.

[keenan87]

I am mostly waiting until Lebrun has some info. Seems like no other insider usually has much idea about what's going on in the Flames organization.

[Monahammer]

It really doesn't matter at all why the Oilers fans are so unbelievably stupid: the fact of the matter is that the oilers franchise has somehow been successful at expanding the fan base in spite of massive suckage. They've grown revenues and kept their costs from inflating.
They're passing a sustainable operating income on this business on top of the massive gain in value of the asset.

So if the Flames ownership group can't do that in Calgary, a city with much better conditions than Edmonton, they should sell and give the keys to someone else. Just stop bitching that the franchise doesn't make money. That is entirely their own fault.

[taxbuster]

Originally Posted by keenan87

I am mostly waiting until Lebrun has some info. Seems like no other insider usually has much idea about what's going on in the Flames organization.

Have to think no outsider does, either.

Given the LeBrun statement that there was contact within the last 48 hours AND that the Flames did nothing major during Round 1, I have to believe that JG is staying and they're working numbers and structure. Good will all around. Not games-playing.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by Monahammer

It really doesn't matter at all why the Oilers fans are so unbelievably stupid: the fact of the matter is that the oilers franchise has somehow been successful at expanding the fan base in spite of massive suckage. They've grown revenues and kept their costs from inflating.
They're passing a sustainable operating income on this business on top of the massive gain in value of the asset.

So if the Flames ownership group can't do that in Calgary, a city with much better conditions than Edmonton, they should sell and give the keys to someone else. Just stop bitching that the franchise doesn't make money. That is entirely their own fault.

80s and McDavid.

That's it. That's why they have/are accumulating fans. The latter was dumb luck.

[SportsJunky]

John is pulling the Landeskog maneuver here. He knows there is still time to squeeze out the very best offer from Calgary. Why shouldn't he? He'll be a Flame for 8 more years.


Orrrrrrrrrrr, the above is wrong and he's made up his mind to leave. Either way, I'm interested to see how this plays out.

[Poe969]

Weird that they always have the mandate to just make the playoffs and they're not profitable.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

80s and McDavid.

That's it. That's why they have/are accumulating fans. The latter was dumb luck.

I am glad someone brought this up, because it contributes to the earlier point being debated in this thread: Murray Edwards stubborness and pride could potentially be the direct reason that the franchise has been mediocre/ failed for 20 years. We've had a couple opportunities to launch into a full rebuild that we keep deciding to swerve. No full rebuild= less chance for hugely marketable players=less fans=less revenue.

BUT again, my point remains and has always been: ownership group here needs to stop bitching about lack of profits. That is their own fault and no one else's. If they are complaining about this they should sell the team.

EDIT: of course, it should also be mentioned that Edwards has not likely ever built a profitable business without massive government subsidies, so perhaps he's just trying to go with what he knows.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by SportsJunky

John is pulling the Landeskog maneuver here. He knows there is still time to squeeze out the very best offer from Calgary. Why shouldn't he? He'll be a Flame for 8 more years.


Orrrrrrrrrrr, the above is wrong and he's made up his mind to leave. Either way, I'm interested to see how this plays out.

When Stamkos and Landeskog did this, it seemed to be well known that they both wanted badly to stay, and were looking for the biggest payday.

It was reported as such all along the way.

There has been zero in the media suggesting that's what johnny is doing.

And you are missing the third possibility, that's he's simply waiting to make up his mind.

[OptimalTates]

Landeskog was a UFA heading into the expansion draft. Had they signed him before it took place, they would have had to protect him and lost a bigger asset to the Kraken.

Colorado had some incentive in that regard to delay the signing until after the expansion draft.

Stamkos had no risk, high reward by waiting until the UFA courting period occurred because he could then find out really if the 8th year was worth it to him or not while putting pressure on Yzerman with cold hard facts about who was serious about acquiring him.

Calgary has no incentive to delay the signing like Colorado, in fact the uncertainty likely caused issues as they headed into the draft and did not know which road they were taking. Gaudreau can play hardball but it's not like something changes between today or tomorrow in terms of external pressure (at least not outside of illegal tampering).