Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[kermitology]

I'd sign him for $11M AAV. I figured it would need to be at least $10.5 AAV. Last season was one of my favourite to watch, and one of the best parts was seeing Johnny play a complete game. He can take things to another level doing that. He was great in the playoffs too, it was the rest of the team that wilted in my mind.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Draug

I'd bet on Gaudreau being better than the vast majority of 35 year old players when he's 35. If I'd make the bet, it seems reasonable to think he would too.

And, $3M now for the average signing 35 yr old could easily be $4M in 8 years with how the cap will go. Then another $1M cause he's better than the average 35/36 year old peer? I think absolutely he can get a Letang type deal 8 years from now. I bet they become more common too, between now and then.

Most players physically don't make it that far. And the game can beat up smaller skilled players who retire by 35: Kariya (a very similar player), Bure, Denis Savard (also very very similar), Gagne, Cammaleri, Cournoyer.

You may be right, there may be more contracts. But does Seguin's look right now?

[Mr.Coffee]

Depends on the shorter term but I’d counter at 10.666 over 8. If they say no I still sign at 11 and accept and move onto Tkachuk and then send a thank you note and flowers to the Gaudreau camp for saving my job.

[Cole436]

The cost of not having Johnny outweighs overpaying for him. If he wants $11M you give it to him. There's no question in my mind.

[tvp2003]

Originally Posted by the-rasta-masta

Could be a shorter term too. Giving Johnny opportunity to show loyalty, with potential to sign a higher deal in a few years when cap goes up, with options at that time to head home or towards a place closer to winning if Flames aren't in the contending mix. Kind of makes sense for all sides actually.

They were speculating on 960 about Tkachuk signing a 2-3 year deal so he really can cash in on an 8-year deal when the cap goes up and the escrow drops. Never thought about that option for Johnny -- that's a lot of guaranteed money to walk away from to try and maximize your overall career earnings.

I personally would have no issue with Johnny and Chucky both returning on three-year deals; even at $11M for each it gives you a clear window to win or else re-build.

But any counter-off from Johnny at this stage means he's at the table and willing to return. Get 'er done Brad.

[Sec214]

If what Rasta is saying is true, I want to know who the ##### Calgary is being leveraged against… 11x8 = 88 Million…7 years the equivalent is 12.575x7 find me the team offering that.. I’m calling wolf on this guy(Johnnys Agent).

This is all his agent trying to maximize and Calgary has to know they aren’t negotiating against this amount.

Calgary has to be firm if you don’t want to be a Dallas 2.0

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Depends on the shorter term but I’d counter at 10.666 over 8. If they say no I still sign at 11 and accept and move onto Tkachuk and then send a thank you note and flowers to the Gaudreau camp for saving my job.

LOL. You never quit.

Treliving isn't getting fired Johnny or no Johnny.

[Bonded]

Originally Posted by Sec214

If what Rasta is saying is true, I want to know who the ##### Calgary is being leveraged against… 11x8 = 88 Million…7 years the equivalent is 12.575x7 find me the team offering that.. I’m calling wolf on this guy.

Lol that's the counter, why is it so ridiculous to you? I honestly think someone would pay him 11.5x7

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Sec214

If what Rasta is saying is true, I want to know who the ##### Calgary is being leveraged against… 11x8 = 88 Million…7 years the equivalent is 12.575x7 find me the team offering that.. I’m calling wolf on this guy.

This is all his agent trying to maximize and Calgary has to know they aren’t negotiating against this amount.

Calgary has to be firm if you don’t want to be a Dallas 2.0

It doesn't work that way. A player ain't playing that 8th year for free.

A 7-year can be less and still considered more.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by nfotiu

Lots are in the 50-100+ million range and anyone else with RSNs is trying to exit the business and some of them are the only reason the American teams are making any money. There is no way to replicate the deals that relied on cable bundling of having millions of people paying $5/month for thousands to watch the games. Some of the american teams have huge tv territories that are very lucrative in the cable bundle model, but have no future in getting money from the few people who actually watch the games.

Local TV deals of $50 to $100MM per over and above the deals they just signed with ESPN? That seems high for almost all of these teams.

I guess we are getting off topic. Everything I have ready and believe to be true would say the salary cap is going up quickly once the players finish paying off their debt to the owners.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Flames got Johnny at 6.75 when they had all the leverage but Johnny now has them in a spot where the leverage is all his and his agent isn’t afraid to drag things out.

This is another great point. Johnny has been playing at a discount his whole career. This is his only chance to cash in. The Flames should pay him.

[Sec214]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Lol that's the counter, why is it so ridiculous to you? I honestly think someone would pay him 11.5x7

Huge difference between 11.5x7 is 10x8 Calgary….

[Bunk]

Not paying our bottom line like $10m a year would probably help in being able to sign superstars...

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by blankall

$10.5-11 should be something the Flames are all over. We're in a very rare scenario where the cap is stable, and inflation, generally is increasing. In 3 years when everyone is paying 30% more for tickets, hot dogs, beers, jerseys, and TV subscriptions and post-covid dampening, revenues will also increase and so will the cap. $10 million will be the new $7 million.

This is a valuable consideration. If the ownership has no concerns over their own and the organization's finances during these types of conditions and are confident in the team and league's business over the next few years, conditions now likely make a long-term contract signed a good value one.

[Aarongavey]

Originally Posted by Sec214

If what Rasta is saying is true, I want to know who the ##### Calgary is being leveraged against… 11x8 = 88 Million…7 years the equivalent is 12.575x7 find me the team offering that.. I’m calling wolf on this guy(Johnnys Agent).

This is all his agent trying to maximize and Calgary has to know they aren’t negotiating against this amount.

Calgary has to be firm if you don’t want to be a Dallas 2.0

Imagine losing your best player because you nickeled and dimed to save 0.5%-1.2% of overall cap value. That would be an all time epic fail.

[PepsiFree]

Originally Posted by Sec214

Huge difference between 11.5x7 is 10x8 Calgary….

So he’s just going to retire after 7 years?

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Any kind of counter is good news.

Exactly, if there is a counter offer that signals he wants to stay. If he had any intentions on FA there would be no counter offer.

[Sec214]

Originally Posted by PepsiFree

So he’s just going to retire after 7 years?

Chances of him being an impact highly paid player at 35+ is very slim.

[Mr.Coffee]

The fact he countered means mentally he’s willing to stay. Up to Treliving now.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Bunk

Not paying our bottom line like $10m a year would probably help in being able to sign superstars...

How much would you have signed Monahan for? And he was 4th line for a week or so before going on the shelf. The Lucic story we all know. Who else are you thinking of? Lewis, Ritchie, Richardson, Ruzicka were all cheap.