Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[SuperMatt18]

Also I would argue that Mangiapane's 5v5 counting stats are a bit under inflated...because his linemates can't finish.

Mangiapane has shot 17% the last three seasons at 5v5. Which is high but he's been able to sustain it for the most part for three years now. (53 goals on 310 shots)

His linemates have scored 72 goals on 1169 shots - for an abysmal 6.2% on ice shooting percentage. His assist totals would be much, much higher if there was any type of finish also playing on his line.

The goal needs to be to keep all of Gaudreau, Tkachuk, and Mangiapane IMO.

[Monahammer]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Also I would argue that Mangiapane's 5v5 counting stats are a bit under inflated...because his linemates can't finish.

Mangiapane has shot 17% the last three seasons at 5v5. Which is high but he's been able to sustain it for the most part for three years now. (53 goals on 310 shots)

His linemates have scored 72 goals on 1169 shots - for an abysmal 6.2% on ice shooting percentage. His assist totals would be much, much higher if there was any type of finish also playing on his line.

The goal needs to be to keep all of Gaudreau, Tkachuk, and Mangiapane IMO.

Goals need to be realistic. We don't have the cap space currently, and likely don't have the draft capital needed to move pieces to create said cap space, to sign all three of these guys. Hell, even 2 of these guys is a stretch with current conditions.

Priority wise, I am personally still favoring Gaudreau and Tkachuk. As much as I like Andrew, he just isn't a better player than these two.

But we're talking 26 million between these three wingers, at a minimum. 10 ish for both Johnny and Matt, 6 ish for Mangi.

We'd still be in trouble even if we managed to get rid of the 13 million from Lucic and Monahan without any take backs.

[mile]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1544727743996108800

https://twitter.com/user/status/1544722830192812032

[Moneyhands23]

Originally Posted by mile

https://twitter.com/user/status/1544727743996108800

https://twitter.com/user/status/1544722830192812032

Yup.. this makes sense to me.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

100% no but the same was said when Iggy Kipper and Jay Bo were moved. It was supposed to be doom and gloom for many years.

Games were fun to watch just 1 year later. 1 year and the team might not be a playoff team but they will have fun players to watch

Big difference with players like Iggy and Kipper is that they were at the end of their careers, not in their prime. How much would it have sucked to lose either Iggy or Kipper for zero return in 2006?

Personally, I'm much less interested in watching a Flames team without Johnny to cheer for than I am watching a Flames team with Johnny to cheer for. My interest in the NHL is hanging on by a thread though anyways. I just see the team's as companies, so I'm not a die-hard fan who cheers for whoever wears the sweater with my favorite brand on it. I'm most interested in watching really entertaining players and people who I like, so maybe Johnny leaving would impact my interest more than most.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Moneyhands23

Yup.. this makes sense to me.

Yep, the only two good scenarios in my eyes are in those tweets.

Re-sign Gaudreau (by paying whatever it takes) and then re-signing Tkachuk

or

Lose Gaudreau, and trade Tkachuk while entering some degree of rebuild.

July 11th is the actual deadline for the Flames in my eyes. Qualifying Offers have to go out by July 11th.

[bax]

Originally Posted by blankall

Tkachuk can be somewhat easily replaced in free agency IMO. If you're willing to pay $9+ million long term for a winger, there's a lot of options. If you were to throw that money at Forsberg, you'd probably come out ahead.

Gaudreau, however, is a legit top talent that drives the Flames offence. Without him, the Flames are in a heap of trouble. He's a very unique player in the NHL.

Tkachuk can be easily replaced? What are you talking about? He is getting so underrated here it isn’t even funny.

Come out ahead by paying Forsberg? (Provided he would even be willing to sign here over 31 other teams).

Forsberg has been over a point per game exactly 1 time in his career and is turning 28 this summer. Tkachuk is 4 years younger and just outscored him by 20 points for crying out loud. The age difference alone is enough to choose Tkachuk, but even then he’s already a way better player - at both ends of the ice. Lots of other options? Who are they?

Tkachuk also boasts elite defensive metrics and has the intangibles of being able to hit, fight, and get under the opposition’s skin. Not to mention his elite hands in tight around the net.

Dom (advanced stats guy from the Athletic) just had an article on the best RFA players this year and this is what he had to say about Tkachuk:

“At 4.4 projected wins, Tkachuk is expected to be one of the 10 most valuable players in hockey next season after a massive breakout year where he scored 104 points and dominated play at 5 on 5 at both ends of the ice. The fact he’s also a rugged power forward only adds to the intrigue. He’s a very special player, a unicorn in this league that features a rare combination of brawn and skill. There’s no one like Tkachuk and he’s a cornerstone piece that teams can build around.”

That 4.4 projected wins number is based on his past 3 seasons as well, not just 21-22. Last season he provided 5.7 projected wins.

He also wrote that he would be willing to make Tkachuk the 5th highest paid player in the league and he would still be worth it. Called him the most valuable asset on the market this summer.

You can make the argument that you don’t think he is THAT valuable - fine, but to say he is easily replaceable is just fantasy.

[Muta]

If Tkachuk goes, let's find a way to move him for Point - bring a Calgary boy (and a talented one at that) back home.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by bax

Tkachuk can be easily replaced? What are you talking about? He is getting so underrated here it isn’t even funny.

Come out ahead by paying Forsberg? (Provided he would even be willing to sign here over 31 other teams).

Forsberg has been over a point per game exactly 1 time in his career and is turning 28 this summer. Tkachuk is 4 years younger and just outscored him by 20 points for crying out loud. The age difference alone is enough to choose Tkachuk, but even then he’s already a way better player - at both ends of the ice.

Tkachuk also boasts elite defensive metrics and has the intangibles of being able to hit, fight, and get under the opposition’s skin. Not to mention his elite hands in tight around the net.

Dom (advanced stats guy from the Athletic) just had an article on the best RFA players this year and this is what he had to say about Tkachuk:

“At 4.4 projected wins, Tkachuk is expected to be one of the 10 most valuable players in hockey next season after a massive breakout year where he scored 104 points and dominated play at 5 on 5 at both ends of the ice. The fact he’s also a rugged power forward only adds to the intrigue. He’s a very special player, a unicorn in this league that features a rare combination of brawn and skill. There’s no one like Tkachuk and he’s a cornerstone piece that teams can build around.”

He also wrote that he would be willing to make Tkachuk the 5th highest paid player in the league and he would still be worth it. Called him the most valuable asset on the market this summer.

Totally agree with this. If we are talking 8 year deals with a $10+ million AAV and it had to be one or the other (Gaudreau or Tkachuk), I would feel better running with Tkachuk given age an performance to date.


JG might be the guy right now, but in 4 or 5 years, my money would be on Tkachuk to be the more productive player.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Muta

If Tkachuk goes, let's find a way to move him for Point - bring a Calgary boy (and a talented one at that) back home.

And sign Kadri in free agency... suddenly having the best centre depth in the league.

[Hackey]

The fact that this isn't done yet tells me that Calgary is not Gaudreaus 1st choice. This can't be about money anymore because Calgary can offer the 8th year and is likely willing to pay an AAV equal or close to any potential bidders. He can get the biggest deal here. I think he probably wants to see what options are available to him, and the destination likely matters more than the money.

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by mathgod

and sign kadri in free agency... Suddenly having the best centre depth in the league.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1544061472069894144

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by Hackey

The fact that this isn't done yet tells me that Calgary is not Gaudreaus 1st choice.

The fact that this isn't done yet doesn't imply that whatsoever.

[Hackey]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

The fact that this isn't done yet doesn't imply that whatsoever.

What do you feel is the hold up then?

[devo22]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

The goal needs to be to keep all of Gaudreau, Tkachuk, and Mangiapane IMO.

in my mind, I've been resigned for a while to the fact that you probably can't keep all of them. I love Mangiapane to bits, but if the Flames can re-sign both Gaudreau and Tkachuk to long-term deals, I'd deal him in a heartbeat. I don't know, it just feels like a "sell high" situation after the season he's had ... I just don't see him score 35 in a season again. Maybe he does and makes me look foolish, and I hope he does in a Flames uniform - but I don't see it.

[djsFlames]

I'd pay 7 for Kadri but thats as high as I would go.

If this was last summer before we signed Coleman I'd be all over it.

Would have to shed Lucic to begin to think about it.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

The fact that this isn't done yet doesn't imply that whatsoever.

Agreed. I still think that Johnny will sign with the Flames, but I think his agent is likely playing it to see the maximum he can get the Flames to offer before they settle on a deal.

[Moneyhands23]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

https://twitter.com/user/status/1544061472069894144

Yikes

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by Hackey

What do you feel is the hold up then?

Johnny/his agent playing their hand as best they can?

There's no urgency for Calgary to bump the number until the clock runs down. And Johnny can bag better than 9.5 from Tre and co.

Also weighing all options and mulling things over with your pregnant wife. A 7-8 year commitment is something you want to take all the time you can to decide on.

[JohnnyB]

Eight to ten for Kadri???
Hard pass.