Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[Flamesfan05]

Columbus is the definition of mediocre or even less

Their best players are older and really no real young talent coming up anytime soon

We are going to be miserable if we become them

[Steve Bozek]

If JG was committed to going the free agent route, I think he or his agent would have said so by now. That’s why I think there’s still a chance (insert Jim Carrey clip here).

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

But the problem isn’t just losing your best player. Your 2nd best player isn’t wrapped up long term. You have 2 more pricey RFAs so even with Gaudreau leaving to replace him means dumping picks with Lucic for someone to take his salary

If you have extra picks and some top prospects this team could easily move forward without Johnny. But it’s the combination of lack of cap space, lack of core players signed long term, lack of picks, lack of high end prospects combined with losing Johnny that will kill this team move forward

I'm not super fussed about Tkachuk - I doubt he will ever be wrapped up long term to tell the truth. I think he wants to be UFA ASAP. And I don't think he is built to be the centrepiece of an offence because he is just too slow.

I doubt you have to dump much with Lucic for the right team. So of JG and MT as well as Lucic are not around the cap space will improve dramatically.

The point is, the team won't be giving up. So it will have to adapt.

[Sylvanfan]

If the Flames can't bring back Gaudreau, I do fear how they would spend the money.

I'm not crazy about giving Tkachuck over 10 per for 7-8 years given how bad his skating is. Mangiapane is tough to gage because I keep hearing how he's not a 6 million dollar player....but he just scored 35 goals last year, and did a lot of it at ES and without Gaudreau. 71 goals over the past 3 years likely has him as one of the top 60 goal scorers in that time frame. Kylington should get multiple years if you can get it from him price will depend on term. Than it's a matter of what they spend to replace Gudbransson and Zadorov. I could see them going with an expensive third pair agsin to keep the minutes for the top 4 down. So if you spend that...you just lost Gaudreau for nothing to keep the rest of the team. Which would be pretty meh.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I'm not super fussed about Tkachuk - I doubt he will ever be wrapped up long term to tell the truth. I think he wants to be UFA ASAP. And I don't think he is built to be the centrepiece of an offence because he is just too slow.

I doubt you have to dump much with Lucic for the right team. So of JG and MT as well as Lucic are not around the cap space will improve dramatically.

The point is, the team won't be giving up. So it will have to adapt.

Tkachuk can be somewhat easily replaced in free agency IMO. If you're willing to pay $9+ million long term for a winger, there's a lot of options. If you were to throw that money at Forsberg, you'd probably come out ahead.

Gaudreau, however, is a legit top talent that drives the Flames offence. Without him, the Flames are in a heap of trouble. He's a very unique player in the NHL.

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

CBJ were a 98 pt team that swept TBL and lost to BOS in 6 with:

Bobrovsky starting 61 games
Panarin leading all F's in TOI and the team in pts
Duchene* TDL acquisition who had 10pts in 10 playoff gp
Duclair/Dzingel (traded for each other at TDL)

After losing all of those pieces they became a 95pt (pace) team that beat TOR in the qualifying rd and lost to TBL in 5. Which included handing the net to Korpisalo (he played those playoffs) and Elvis (who had yet to play an NHL game). And basically losing Josh Anderson for that season, too.


Things fell apart in the 56 game season (70 pt pace). Anderson for Domi. Despite Dubois pouting like a baby they were 2-2-2 when they traded him. Laine and Domi were both sub .5 ppg players. Their Mikko Koivu signing only played 7 games.

Korpisalo was bad (33gp - .894 / 3.30). Seems like it took them a while to hand the reins to Elvis (28gp .916 / 2.77).

Then they lost Jones, Savard, and Foligno, but still bounced back to 81pts this year.

I suppose you could say they fell into the medicore middle zone, but they also had a ton of seismic changes beyond Panarin, managed to pick 5/12/25 last year and 6/12 this year and may already be back on the upswing.

Columbus is our beacon of hope for where we could be if we lose Gaudreau? Yikes, lol.

If nothing else our fan base is better than most in the league at accepting and justifying mediocrity. We're the dream fans for ownership groups that don't have the desire to tear down and acquire top end picks, instead aiming for playoffs in any manner each season

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

As much as I enjoy watching Gaudreau play for the Flames, this situation isn't causing me that much angst. Maybe because I'm not that convinced this team is on a championship trajectory with or without him.

I also don't really see the team as a likely championship team either way. I think chances are better with Johnny, but championships are very, very hard to win.

That said, even if Johnny doesn't make the team a championship contender, he is by far the most entertaining player on the team. Is anyone feeling more positive about the entertainment value of watching the Flames play without Johnny?

[Winsor_Pilates]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

But the problem isn’t just losing your best player. Your 2nd best player isn’t wrapped up long term. You have 2 more pricey RFAs so even with Gaudreau leaving to replace him means dumping picks with Lucic for someone to take his salary

If you have extra picks and some top prospects this team could easily move forward without Johnny. But it’s the combination of lack of cap space, lack of core players signed long term, lack of picks, lack of high end prospects combined with losing Johnny that will kill this team move forward

I still think Johnny and Tkachuk sign but the team has a lack of everything if they don't.
They have completely built around these 2 staying and there is no plan B. As you've pointed out, they haven't done anything to pivot and re tool or rebuild if this goes the wrong way.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by blankall

Tkachuk can be somewhat easily replaced in free agency IMO. If you're willing to pay $9+ million long term for a winger, there's a lot of options. If you were to throw that money at Forsberg, you'd probably come out ahead.

Gaudreau, however, is a legit top talent that drives the Flames offence. Without him, the Flames are in a heap of trouble. He's a very unique player in the NHL.

No disagreement. But part of what makes him unique also makes the Flames a little too reliant on half of the ice. So while I'd prefer he stayed, if he doesn't the Flames will have to change and embrace a different kind of offence.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

If the Flames can't bring back Gaudreau, I do fear how they would spend the money.

I'm not crazy about giving Tkachuck over 10 per for 7-8 years given how bad his skating is. Mangiapane is tough to gage because I keep hearing how he's not a 6 million dollar player....but he just scored 35 goals last year, and did a lot of it at ES and without Gaudreau. 71 goals over the past 3 years likely has him as one of the top 60 goal scorers in that time frame. Kylington should get multiple years if you can get it from him price will depend on term. Than it's a matter of what they spend to replace Gudbransson and Zadorov. I could see them going with an expensive third pair agsin to keep the minutes for the top 4 down. So if you spend that...you just lost Gaudreau for nothing to keep the rest of the team. Which would be pretty meh.

It all hedges on how long Sutter wants to coach. He can probably get results from a roster that's based on quantity of good players without any great ones. It won't last though as we saw with the Islanders the margins are slim and if things don't go right and key players slump, it totally collapses. We all knew this was coming and that the team was hitting a point of critical mass. They went for it this season and it was always going to be decline after as you can't keep everyone in a salary capped league and this team just didn't peak high enough with all it's talent assembled. It's likely going to be pretty meh going forward until they decide to rebuild but as we have seen with this ownership they are content with meh as long as it keeps them in the mix for the 8th playoff spot.

[Sylvanfan]

Columbus to me is that team begging players to take their money to stay, who get turned down constantly. That's a team who would pay Mangiapane 6 plus because they can't get anyone else to take their money.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

But the problem isn’t just losing your best player. Your 2nd best player isn’t wrapped up long term. You have 2 more pricey RFAs so even with Gaudreau leaving to replace him means dumping picks with Lucic for someone to take his salary

If you have extra picks and some top prospects this team could easily move forward without Johnny. But it’s the combination of lack of cap space, lack of core players signed long term, lack of picks, lack of high end prospects combined with losing Johnny that will kill this team move forward

Treliving pretty much went all in on this season. Can't say he wasn't willing to shoot his shot.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

I think the Flames are more likely to keep Chucky without Gaudreau. I don't think Gaudreau weighs heavily in Chucky's decision - we hit his number or we don't.

If anything, I think he might be a bit less likely to go for a 1 year 'contract year' without Gaudreau than he would with him.

My personal prediction is Johnny leaves (70%) and they sign Chucky around 8x9.75M. Depending on how the season goes they may still move him before any trade protection kicks in. I also think this would warrant the best return compared to trading him with contract uncertainty.




The flip side is the team may stop 'deferring' so much to him to make things happen.

I think the team will be worse in the regular season, but has a chance to be better in the playoffs - with more cap for better depth, and I just don't think Johnny's gamebreaking ability happens enough in the post-season compared to guys like Kucherov/MacKinnon/McDavid/Draisaitl.

Gaudreau did lead the Flames in scoring in the playoffs by 4 points and 6 points over anyone not on his line.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

I also don't really see the team as a likely championship team either way. I think chances are better with Johnny, but championships are very, very hard to win.

That said, even if Johnny doesn't make the team a championship contender, he is by far the most entertaining player on the team. Is anyone feeling more positive about the entertainment value of watching the Flames play without Johnny?

100% no but the same was said when Iggy Kipper and Jay Bo were moved. It was supposed to be doom and gloom for many years.

Games were fun to watch just 1 year later. 1 year and the team might not be a playoff team but they will have fun players to watch

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by Sylvanfan

Mangiapane is tough to gage because I keep hearing how he's not a 6 million dollar player....but he just scored 35 goals last year, and did a lot of it at ES and without Gaudreau. 71 goals over the past 3 years likely has him as one of the top 60 goal scorers in that time frame.

He has 53 5v5 goals over the last three years - which ranks T-8th in the entire NHL.

Most of that not playing with other top line players on the team.

451 minutes at 5v5 with Lindholm
111 minutes at 5v5 with Gaudreau.
858 minutes at 5v5 with Tkachuk

1545 with none of them and in that time with none of them he's still put up:

56.6% Corsi For
73 GF
54 GA
57.5% GF%
57.3% XGF

$6M for Mangiapane would be perfectly fine and with more ice time (PP and 5v5) he could probably break out to a true top line talent.

Mangiapane-Lindholm-Tkachuk put up 2.89 xGF/60, 2.26 xGA/60 (+0.63) when they were a line.

Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk put up 3.23 xGF/60, 2.09 xGA/60 (+1.14) when they were a line.

So it would be a downgrade on out top line but maybe not as huge as you would think (especially since Mangiapane-Lindholm-Tkachuk was mostly under Ward, and Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk was under Sutter, so coaching a role in those numbers too). The bigger issue might actually be replacing what Mangiapane brought to line two.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

He has 53 5v5 goals over the last three years - which ranks 9th in the entire NHL.

Most of that not playing with other top line players on the team.

451 minutes at 5v5 with Lindholm
111 minutes at 5v5 with Gaudreau.
858 minutes at 5v5 with Tkachuk

1545 with none of them and in that time with none of them he's still put up:

56.6% Corsi For
73 GF
54 GA
57.5% GF%
57.3% XGF

$6M for Mangiapane would be perfectly fine and with more ice time (PP and 5v5) he could probably break out to a true top line talent.

Mangiapane-Lindholm-Tkachuk put up 2.89 xGF/60, 2.26 xGA/60 when they were a line.

Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk put up 3.23 xGF/60, 2.09 xGA/60 when they were a line.

So it would be a downgrade on out top line but maybe not as huge as you would think. The bigger issue might actually be replacing what Mangiapane brought to line two.

Mangiapane has made a believer out of me.

[Philly06Cup]

Too many people obsessed with burn it t the ground rebuilds.

The Flames were a top 3-5 team in the entire league by goal diffential / fancy stats / betting odds. That's not the kind of roster you burn down -- thats a roster you build on. If you lose Gaudreau, use that cap-space to get a replacement superstar. With Lucic / Monahan possibly freeing up cap space, things are looking up for this team, with or without Johnny.

[jayswin]

Yeah, you just grab a replacement super star!! lol

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Philly06Cup

Too many people obsessed with burn it t the ground rebuilds.

The Flames were a top 3-5 team in the entire league by goal diffential / fancy stats / betting odds. That's not the kind of roster you burn down -- thats a roster you build on. If you lose Gaudreau, use that cap-space to get a replacement superstar. With Lucic / Monahan possibly freeing up cap space, things are looking up for this team, with or without Johnny.

…and who would that be? There are no superstars available and they very rarely become available.

Gaudreau not signing here may also impact Tkachuk’s desire to stay

[Ashasx]

Just replace Gaudreau in free agency. It's that easy!