Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[sa226]

It takes a certain type of person and player (and agent for that matter) to sign well before the deadline to stay. On the non hockey side of the business free agency is about as big as it gets for the players. I wouldn't and don't blame him at all if he wants to be courted and see what else is out there. I wouldn't be surprised at all if there's some communication from the NHLPA encouraging that for their premiere UFA for 2022.

All of that doesn't mean he isn't re-signing here.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

Did he specify game 1 of regular or post season? Never know when a team might be Kane/Kucherov-ing the LTIR now lol.

I checked and misremembered - my bad. He mentioned that Monahan is ahead of schedule. The tweet below from earlier.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1530634761072365568

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by 442scotty

I think a large signing bonus carries the day. And the Flames don’t like signing bonuses do they?

NAS didn't do NMCs until Josi...

Originally Posted by sa226

It takes a certain type of person and player (and agent for that matter) to sign well before the deadline to stay. On the non hockey side of the business free agency is about as big as it gets for the players. I wouldn't and don't blame him at all if he wants to be courted and see what else is out there. I wouldn't be surprised at all if there's some communication from the NHLPA encouraging that for their premiere UFA for 2022.

All of that doesn't mean he isn't re-signing here.

It's far rarer for players to NOT extend at the earliest opportunity.

The PA shouldn't give a crap about player AAVs. The cap limits total compensation payable, it's only an issue of distribution.

[tvp2003]

Yes Lucic leaving would create a (big) hole in the leadership group, but quite frankly it’s a luxury this team can’t afford. Other guys will need to step up.

I would also consider having Lucic back in 2023/24 as a UFA, assuming he wants to come back and play with his buddy Toffoli.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by tvp2003

Yes Lucic leaving would create a (big) hole in the leadership group, but quite frankly it’s a luxury this team can’t afford. Other guys will need to step up.

I would also consider having Lucic back in 2023/24 as a UFA, assuming he wants to come back and play with his buddy Toffoli.

Could he be traded to a cheap team, bought out and re-sign back here for min?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

It's far rarer for players to NOT extend at the earliest opportunity.

I am not convinced this is true. Is there evidence to support this assertion? Besides, not all players enter UFA with the same options. What most players do is not always relevant.


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[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

Could he be traded to a cheap team, bought out and re-sign back here for min?

This doesn't make any sense. Why would a team aquire Lucic for no other reason than to buy him out? The most likely scenario is that a "cheap" team is trading for his cap hit, which means they are also not incentivized to get rid of him.

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[Northendzone]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Hearing the Flames have found a home for Lucic. Could happen this week. Not an official source at all but an interesting one.

I am trying to wrap my head around what a trade for looch would look like

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by Northendzone

I am trying to wrap my head around what a trade for looch would look like

Best deal would be Lucic for future consideration

Most likely it would be for a lower cost but useless player

Or the Flames give up a pick to get rid of Lucic

[Roof-Daddy]

Doesn't Lucic still have a place in LA?

The Ducks make a ton of sense. They've got a ways to go just to make the cap floor so his cap hit is no issue, and they won't even have to pay him a million real dollars.

If he has a place in LA then he would certainly have them on his 10 team trade list.

Maybe we'll get one of the Ducks two 5th rounders or something like that. Lord knows we could use an extra pick

[DoubleK]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

This doesn't make any sense. Why would a team aquire Lucic for no other reason than to buy him out? The most likely scenario is that a "cheap" team is trading for his cap hit, which means they are also not incentivized to get rid of him.

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Exactly. He's going to CLB/ARI/SEA/ANH to get to the cap floor on the cheap.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Flamesfan05

Best deal would be Lucic for future consideration

Most likely it would be for a lower cost but useless player

Or the Flames give up a pick to get rid of Lucic

I don't think the Flames are going to have to attach a pick to him. The acquiring team will only have to pay him basically a league minimum salary and it'll most likely be a team that will welcome his cap hit just to reach the floor.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Northendzone

I am trying to wrap my head around what a trade for looch would look like

Lucic for a 5th round pick or something like that I would imagine.

He's a good vet, with intangibles like toughness, physicality and leadership. He still scored 10 goals last season and his salary will be basically league minimum for only one season.

[midniteowl]

Originally Posted by DoubleK

Exactly. He's going to CLB/ARI/SEA/ANH to get to the cap floor on the cheap.

Seattle makes sense because it's close to home. I have learned that a lot of players would like to play close to home.

[TOfan]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Doesn't Lucic still have a place in LA?

The Ducks make a ton of sense. They've got a ways to go just to make the cap floor so his cap hit is no issue, and they won't even have to pay him a million real dollars.

If he has a place in LA then he would certainly have them on his 10 team trade list.

Maybe we'll get one of the Ducks two 5th rounders or something like that. Lord knows we could use an extra pick

Yes, I believe he still has a place in LA and spends his offseason there. Seems like, if he were to be traded, LA/Anaheim would be a place where he would be willing to go to. Anaheim does make a lot of sense. Once they traded Deslauriers and Manson the Ducks didn’t have many guys to stop Jay Beagle from filling in Troy Terry.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I am not convinced this is true. Is there evidence to support this assertion? Besides, not all players enter UFA with the same options. What most players do is not always relevant.


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It's a bit confusing to track given the wonky dates of the past few years (and the 2012 lockout), but here are 5yr+ x 8M+ contracts:

Extended within 30 days of first opportunity (13):
Drew Doughty Jul. 1, 2018
Carey Price Jul. 2, 2017
Logan Couture Jul. 1, 2018
Oliver Ekman-Larsson Jul. 1, 2018
Evgeni Malkin Jul. 1, 2013
Nikita Kucherov Jul. 10, 2018
Jamie Benn Jul. 15, 2016
Seth Jones Jul. 23, 2021
Brayden Point Jul. 28, 2021
Claude Giroux Jul. 4, 2013
Patrick Kane Jul. 9, 2014
Jonathan Toews Jul. 9, 2014
Darnell Nurse Aug. 6, 2021


4 more before the season started:
Tyler Seguin Sep. 13, 2018
Blake Wheeler Sep. 4, 2018
Aleksander Barkov Oct. 8, 2021
Mika Zibanejad Oct. 10, 2021

and 5 more early into a season:
Anze Kopitar Jan. 16, 2016
Brent Burns Nov. 22, 2016
Roman Josi Oct. 29, 2019
Henrik Lundqvist Dec. 4, 2013
Nicklas Bäckström Jan. 14, 2020

So 22 guys locked in pretty early.

3 went up to TDL:
Ryan Getzlaf Mar. 8, 2013
Corey Perry Mar. 18, 2013 - both these are a few weeks before TDL 2013 in a weird shortened season
Tomas Hertl Mar. 16, 2022 - pretty close to TDL

4-6 went into June (or equivalent):
Steven Stamkos Jun. 29, 2016 - courting period
John Carlson Jun. 25, 2018 (courting period began June 24)
Erik Karlsson Jun. 17, 2019 (courting period would begin June 23)
Jeff Skinner Jun. 7, 2019

Gaudreau
Forsberg

6 Hit UFA and left:
Artemi Panarin Jul. 1, 2019
Dougie Hamilton Jul. 28, 2021
Matt Duchene Jul. 1, 2019
Alex Pietrangelo Oct. 12, 2020
John Tavares Jul. 1, 2018
Sergei Bobrovsky Jul. 1, 2019

I think Ovi and Stone are just kinda exceptions that are hard to put into either box:
Mark Stone Mar. 8, 2019 - after TDL, but a unique situation - pretty much immediately with his new team...

Alex Ovechkin Jul. 27, 2021 - waited for expansion draft


22 guys locked up early. 3 more got close to TDL. 12 played through an entire season.

It's interesting that 11/12 guys who played through a season are since 2018 (+ Stamkos 2016). So it's definitely becoming more common, though it might also be a matter of the arbitrary threshold I set and contract inflation etc.


I should note that the capfriendly signings page is sometimes a bit wonky so I wouldn't be surprised if a few guys are missing.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

This doesn't make any sense. Why would a team aquire Lucic for no other reason than to buy him out? The most likely scenario is that a "cheap" team is trading for his cap hit, which means they are also not incentivized to get rid of him.

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I'm thinking of a scenario to gain a pick.

Something like

to Buffalo: Lucic +3rd +5th
to Calgary: 5th

Buffalo gets a 3rd for $333k in real money for 2 years, Buffalo takes a cap hit of $4.666m in year one and $291k in year two, Best part is Edmonton still gets a cap hit of $666k and $42k.

Calgary gets $5.25m in cap space for a 3rd and signs Lucic for league min after buyout.

[powderjunkie]

I should add that there are a bunch of RFAs who ink a year in advance…and a bunch that don’t.

There also isn’t any ‘fair’ time to do this…guys like MacKinnon and Huberdeau etc may lock in mid July…


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[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I am not convinced this is true. Is there evidence to support this assertion? Besides, not all players enter UFA with the same options. What most players do is not always relevant.


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Yeah. Most players are middling guys who don’t want to go through a grind of UFA and uncertainty. They sign pretty quickly as long as they are treated OK.

Stars are always the focus and they tend to take longer because they have more leverage.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Snuffleupagus

I'm thinking of a scenario to gain a pick.

Something like

to Buffalo: Lucic +3rd +5th
to Calgary: 5th

Buffalo gets a 3rd for $333k in real money for 2 years, Buffalo takes a cap hit of $4.666m in year one and $291k in year two, Best part is Edmonton still gets a cap hit of $666k and $42k.

Calgary gets $5.25m in cap space for a 3rd and signs Lucic for league min after buyout.

Hmm, the worst part of this plan is that EDM burden is slightly reduced.

BUF would be better off keeping Lucic as a replacement player+ buyout would end up costing more, but Lucic might only approve certain destinations on condition of a buyout.


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