Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I'm more of a chase the Cup kinda guy, so I don't mind the team rebuilding at the first sign of not being a cup contender.

But it's not "two or three years", it will take much longer if Calgary decides to clean house today.

Two or three years of not signing the second tier UFA players (think Wideman, Hudler, Brouwer, Neal, Frolik, Coleman) so they can actually be bad and draft high for a couple years in a row. Not expecting them to win the Cup in year 3 lol.

[Vinny01]

Friedman thinks we might get a decision next week on Gaudreau if he wants to stay or is going (Marek show)

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Friedman thinks we might get a decision next week on Gaudreau if he wants to stay or is going (Marek show)

Makes sense. I feel Gaudreau and the Flames have a good enough relationship where Johnny would not leave his decision to the last minute leaving the Flames in a precarious situation. I still cling to the fact that he's still a Flame until his camp makes it known otherwise which as far as we know has not happened.

[Roof-Daddy]

lol what a pickle the Flames are in here.

Best player just put up 115 points and is a UFA in his prime.

Next best player just put up 100+ points and only has one year of control left, so even if you decide to avoid him walking away for nothing next off season his value is diminished unless the acquiring team talks to him and he expresses his willingness to sign a long term extension with them.

Meanwhile the Flames are up against the cap and have essentially two 4th liners eating up almost $13 million AAV.

Not to mention Andrew Mangiapane put up a career year as well and is an RFA who's agent has already come out and said they will be playing hardball in negotiations.

Oh, did I mention that half of their starting 6 Dmen are without contracts as well, and all in need of raises if they are to be brought back?

At least the draft is coming up soon.....wait, that's right...the Flames are without a 1st, 3rd, 4th or 6th round pick. They only have 3 picks total (2nd, 5th, 7th)

Hahaha

Man oh man does Treliving have his work cut out for him.

[CroFlames]

Frankly I have always been anti-tank, and said it was embarrassing to cheer for losses.

However, the way this league is set up, tanking is incentivized.

If Johnny walks, I would be perfectly happy to trade all the big pieces - Markstrom, Hanifin, Andersson, Lindholm, Tkachuk, etc, and then tank hard.

You ain't winning the Cup without Johnny, so you may as well tank and build your team over again. You may end up like Buffalo, or you may end up like the Pens or Avs.

If you don't tank, you end up like... well, like Calgary.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

lol what a pickle the Flames are in here.

Best player just put up 115 points and is a UFA in his prime.

Next best player just put up 100+ points and only has one year of control left, so even if you decide to avoid him walking away for nothing next off season his value is diminished unless the acquiring team talks to him and he expresses his willingness to sign a long term extension with them.

Meanwhile the Flames are up against the cap and have essentially two 4th liners eating up almost $13 million AAV.

Not to mention Andrew Mangiapane put up a career year as well and is an RFA who's agent has already come out and said they will be playing hardball in negotiations.

Oh, did I mention that half of their starting 6 Dmen are without contracts as well, and all in need of raises if they are to be brought back?

At least the draft is coming up soon.....wait, that's right...the Flames are without a 1st, 3rd, 4th or 6th round pick. They only have 3 picks total (2nd, 5th, 7th)

Hahaha

Man oh man does Treliving have his work cut out for him.

Yeah...The big issue is Gaudreau. He is the offence, and without him the team is pretty F-ed. Normally him leaving would be an automatic rebuild, but the Flames also have 3 top 4 d-men, a goalie, 2 other top line players, and multiple mid-six players all entering their prime.

If you tear all that down, it's going to take a long time to rebuild that, if you ever can.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Moneyhands23

Possibly. It all depends on how the 2023 draft goes. If you get the Oiler treatment and draft 1oa it's quicker as we already have 4 good/great prospects in the pipes. Adding Bedard makes it 3/4 years and your a playoff team.

It’s a tough proposition though. A lot of teams tank and don’t get 1OA though. Or they are 1OA in a weak draft. Look at Buffalo. Or you end up with a. Good player on a bad team. In the last 25 years 5 1OAs have won cups. Two were on the same team. Mackinnon is the last one, and he was drafted 9 years ago.

You can have 4 1OAs in 6 years and win nothing.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Moneyhands23

Well that has been the Flames way at times. But just because that's happened doesn't mean it has to again. Team can sell of a lot of assets and if they commit to a proper rebuild they can definitely draft top 3 multiple times.

You mean you guarantee that they will finish last multiple times, since that is the only way to draft in the top 3 without winning the lottery?

Bold.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

You can have 4 1OAs in 6 years and win nothing.

Surely you jest, no team could be that incompetent....

[OptimalTates]

If Gaudreau makes it clear his intention is to move on (or even "test free agency") my plan would be to gut that top line in order to prepare for a rebuild:

Give him carte blanche to talk with any team and make it known the Flames are willing to sign-and-trade for the right price so he can still get that 8th year. Hopefully that means team like NJ and Philly will be negotiating against each other for the AAV but also competing to get the sign-and-trade in for that 8th year. Play hardball but take whatever you can get by the end even if it's a late pick, but I think there's a chance that it could be quite a bit more if a team feels that getting that 8th year is the difference between signing him or not.

Ask if Tkachuk is willing to be part of an earnest rebuild. Likely won't, but it's up to him. If he doesn't want to, i.e. won't sign long term, ask which teams he would consider signing an 8 year deal with and work on a trade with them for a signed Tkachuk. Obviously NJ for the 2nd would be a great basis for a trade in this respect but lots of moving parts here.

Shop Lindholm hard. Take on bad contracts for a premium. Arizona might form a good twofer here with Lindholm for Ladd. If they have any hope of staying in Arizona, which they might not, they need to make some noise quickly. Instead of waiting to trade Chychrun, Schmaltz then Keller because they all want out from the failing franchise, instead give them a reason to want to stay. Lindholm, third overall this year, Hayton, a UFA signing or two and maybe they can compete or at least not be expected to finish at the bottom again and again and again.

To Flyers:
Gaudreau (signed 8 years)
2023 2nd round pick (expected to be in the 32-40th spot)

To Calgary:
JVR
2023 1st round pick (expected to be in that 16th-24th spot but no lottery protection)

To New Jersey:
Tkachuk (with intention to sign long-term)

To Calgary:
2nd overall pick

To Arizona:
Lindholm
JVR (50% for 2M salary)

To Calgary:
34th pick in 2022
1st round pick in 2023
Ladd

Flames with three shots (their own, Arizona and Philly) going into the 2023 draft of Bedard/Michkov, plus the 2nd overall like Wright to build around for the next decade. The expense is at the top line of the 2022 season but hand is being forced.

Flyers pay a premium but get Gaudreau and make room by moving a player on the verge of being bought out and bet on themselves finishing in the playoffs making the pick a late 1st for an early 2nd.

New Jersey misses out on Gaudreau but supplements their young core with an elite sandpaper player like Tkachuk as they shift from rebuilding to trying to contend.

Arizona gets a player with an absurd cap hit but at 2M in actual salary and consistent 25 goal scorer, while bringing in a Selke level center that could centre Keller and Schmaltz making a very strong two-way first line. Hayton centers a second line with JVR or Crouse and Boyd and Ritchie see if they can keep up their strong play on a solid third line. They also clear out 4M by moving Ladd which they desperately would want to do.

Next steps would be looking at what teams are on Lucic's trade list and see if any of them want him at 1M for a pick. (Arizona would love him at 1M, but he might not waive for there while Kraken being close to home might be more plausible).

Next year look at trading Backlund and Tanev at the deadline. Hopefully re-sign Hanafin, re-assess what to do with Toffoli.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

Makes sense. I feel Gaudreau and the Flames have a good enough relationship where Johnny would not leave his decision to the last minute leaving the Flames in a precarious situation. I still cling to the fact that he's still a Flame until his camp makes it known otherwise which as far as we know has not happened.

I’d have hoped if he always planned on going east he would have told the Flames that before last season so they could do something better than trading bargaining rights. Which gives me hope he is still working on a deal with them.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

In the last 25 years 5 1OAs have won cups.

Alternatively; in the last 10 years, 8 teams have won Cups with a 1OAs they drafted. (St. Louis and the King's Doughty as a 2OA rounds out the 10).

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

Alternatively; in the last 10 years, 8 teams have won Cups with a 1OAs they drafted. (St. Louis and the King's Doughty as a 2OA rounds out the 10).

How long did it take? Colorado took 9 years. TB longer. I’m talking about this 3-4 year rebuild people are mentioning.

If you dig deeper, the winning teams have not only 1OAs but also multiple other high picks.

BUT there are more teams that have the same kind of picks that have not gotten anywhere.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

Alternatively; in the last 10 years, 8 teams have won Cups with a 1OAs they drafted. (St. Louis and the King's Doughty as a 2OA rounds out the 10).

The draft rules are different than they used to be. You are very unlikely now to draft a Crosby/Malkin, Toews/Kane, Stamkos/Hedman, etc... within close proximity.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

If Gaudreau makes it clear his intention is to move on (or even "test free agency") my plan would be to gut that top line in order to prepare for a rebuild:

Give him carte blanche to talk with any team and make it known the Flames are willing to sign-and-trade for the right price so he can still get that 8th year. Hopefully that means team like NJ and Philly will be negotiating against each other for the AAV but also competing to get the sign-and-trade in for that 8th year. Play hardball but take whatever you can get by the end even if it's a late pick, but I think there's a chance that it could be quite a bit more if a team feels that getting that 8th year is the difference between signing him or not.

Ask if Tkachuk is willing to be part of an earnest rebuild. Likely won't, but it's up to him. If he doesn't want to, i.e. won't sign long term, ask which teams he would consider signing an 8 year deal with and work on a trade with them for a signed Tkachuk. Obviously NJ for the 2nd would be a great basis for a trade in this respect but lots of moving parts here.

Shop Lindholm hard. Take on bad contracts for a premium. Arizona might form a good twofer here with Lindholm for Ladd. If they have any hope of staying in Arizona, which they might not, they need to make some noise quickly. Instead of waiting to trade Chychrun, Schmaltz then Keller because they all want out from the failing franchise, instead give them a reason to want to stay. Lindholm, third overall this year, Hayton, a UFA signing or two and maybe they can compete or at least not be expected to finish at the bottom again and again and again.

To Flyers:
Gaudreau (signed 8 years)
2023 2nd round pick (expected to be in the 32-40th spot)

To Calgary:
JVR
2023 1st round pick (expected to be in that 16th-24th spot but no lottery protection)

To New Jersey:
Tkachuk (with intention to sign long-term)

To Calgary:
2nd overall pick

To Arizona:
Lindholm
JVR (50% for 2M salary)

To Calgary:
34th pick in 2022
1st round pick in 2023
Ladd

Flames with three shots (their own, Arizona and Philly) going into the 2023 draft of Bedard/Michkov, plus the 2nd overall like Wright to build around for the next decade. The expense is at the top line of the 2022 season but hand is being forced.

Flyers pay a premium but get Gaudreau and make room by moving a player on the verge of being bought out and bet on themselves finishing in the playoffs making the pick a late 1st for an early 2nd.

New Jersey misses out on Gaudreau but supplements their young core with an elite sandpaper player like Tkachuk as they shift from rebuilding to trying to contend.

Arizona gets a player with an absurd cap hit but at 2M in actual salary and consistent 25 goal scorer, while bringing in a Selke level center that could centre Keller and Schmaltz making a very strong two-way first line. Hayton centers a second line with JVR or Crouse and Boyd and Ritchie see if they can keep up their strong play on a solid third line. They also clear out 4M by moving Ladd which they desperately would want to do.

Next steps would be looking at what teams are on Lucic's trade list and see if any of them want him at 1M for a pick. (Arizona would love him at 1M, but he might not waive for there while Kraken being close to home might be more plausible).

Next year look at trading Backlund and Tanev at the deadline. Hopefully re-sign Hanafin, re-assess what to do with Toffoli.

Arizona is not trading their 2023 1st lol

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

If Gaudreau makes it clear his intention is to move on (or even "test free agency") my plan would be to gut that top line in order to prepare for a rebuild:

Give him carte blanche to talk with any team and make it known the Flames are willing to sign-and-trade for the right price so he can still get that 8th year. Hopefully that means team like NJ and Philly will be negotiating against each other for the AAV but also competing to get the sign-and-trade in for that 8th year. Play hardball but take whatever you can get by the end even if it's a late pick, but I think there's a chance that it could be quite a bit more if a team feels that getting that 8th year is the difference between signing him or not.

Ask if Tkachuk is willing to be part of an earnest rebuild. Likely won't, but it's up to him. If he doesn't want to, i.e. won't sign long term, ask which teams he would consider signing an 8 year deal with and work on a trade with them for a signed Tkachuk. Obviously NJ for the 2nd would be a great basis for a trade in this respect but lots of moving parts here.

Shop Lindholm hard. Take on bad contracts for a premium. Arizona might form a good twofer here with Lindholm for Ladd. If they have any hope of staying in Arizona, which they might not, they need to make some noise quickly. Instead of waiting to trade Chychrun, Schmaltz then Keller because they all want out from the failing franchise, instead give them a reason to want to stay. Lindholm, third overall this year, Hayton, a UFA signing or two and maybe they can compete or at least not be expected to finish at the bottom again and again and again.

To Flyers:
Gaudreau (signed 8 years)
2023 2nd round pick (expected to be in the 32-40th spot)

To Calgary:
JVR
2023 1st round pick (expected to be in that 16th-24th spot but no lottery protection)

To New Jersey:
Tkachuk (with intention to sign long-term)

To Calgary:
2nd overall pick

To Arizona:
Lindholm
JVR (50% for 2M salary)

To Calgary:
34th pick in 2022
1st round pick in 2023
Ladd

Flames with three shots (their own, Arizona and Philly) going into the 2023 draft of Bedard/Michkov, plus the 2nd overall like Wright to build around for the next decade. The expense is at the top line of the 2022 season but hand is being forced.

Flyers pay a premium but get Gaudreau and make room by moving a player on the verge of being bought out and bet on themselves finishing in the playoffs making the pick a late 1st for an early 2nd.

New Jersey misses out on Gaudreau but supplements their young core with an elite sandpaper player like Tkachuk as they shift from rebuilding to trying to contend.

Arizona gets a player with an absurd cap hit but at 2M in actual salary and consistent 25 goal scorer, while bringing in a Selke level center that could centre Keller and Schmaltz making a very strong two-way first line. Hayton centers a second line with JVR or Crouse and Boyd and Ritchie see if they can keep up their strong play on a solid third line. They also clear out 4M by moving Ladd which they desperately would want to do.

Next steps would be looking at what teams are on Lucic's trade list and see if any of them want him at 1M for a pick. (Arizona would love him at 1M, but he might not waive for there while Kraken being close to home might be more plausible).

Next year look at trading Backlund and Tanev at the deadline. Hopefully re-sign Hanafin, re-assess what to do with Toffoli.

That Devils deal needs ++ for NJ. A 2nd OA in a crap draft is not enough for a 24 year old 100pt scorer who is also a unicorn in terms of being a pest.

Also not a fan of the Arizona deal as the Coyotes would simply not give up their 1st no chance no shot.

If you tear it down Lucic stays until the deadline

Markstrom would need to be traded

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

How long did it take? Colorado took 9 years. TB longer. I’m talking about this 3-4 year rebuild people are mentioning.

It took 9 years to win the Cup, yes, but not 9 years to "complete" the rebuild. They are back-to-back President Trophy winners, and in the shutdown 2019 season they were 2 points behind St. Louis (94 points in 71 games compared to 92 points in 70 games) for first in the west. They have made the playoffs 5 years in a row.

Originally Posted by GioforPM

If you dig deeper, the winning teams have not only 1OAs but also multiple other high picks.

So it takes more then a year to rebuild. Something the Flames haven't figured out yet lol.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

It took 9 years to win the Cup, yes, but not 9 years to "complete" the rebuild. They are back-to-back President Trophy winners, and in the shutdown 2019 season they were 2 points behind St. Louis (94 points in 71 games compared to 92 points in 70 games) for first in the west. They have made the playoffs 5 years in a row.



So it takes more then a year to rebuild. Something the Flames haven't figured out yet lol.

In 2019 the Flames had the following

2013 5th overall pick
2013 6th overall pick
2014 4th overall pick
2015 5th overall pick
2016 6th overall pick

Those drafts were their rebuild years. They picked 3 of the 5 themselves but at the end of the day they had 5 top 6 picks from a 4 year period on their team

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

In 2019 the Flames had the following

2013 5th overall pick
2013 6th overall pick
2014 4th overall pick
2015 5th overall pick
2016 6th overall pick

Those drafts were their rebuild years. They picked 3 of the 4 themselves but at the end of the day they had 5 top 6 picks from a 4 year period on their team

Oh, but it doesn't count unless you pick top 3, because reasons. Therefore the Flames' management is teh st00pidz.

[madmike]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

lol what a pickle the Flames are in here.

Best player just put up 115 points and is a UFA in his prime.

Next best player just put up 100+ points and only has one year of control left, so even if you decide to avoid him walking away for nothing next off season his value is diminished unless the acquiring team talks to him and he expresses his willingness to sign a long term extension with them.

Meanwhile the Flames are up against the cap and have essentially two 4th liners eating up almost $13 million AAV.

Not to mention Andrew Mangiapane put up a career year as well and is an RFA who's agent has already come out and said they will be playing hardball in negotiations.

Oh, did I mention that half of their starting 6 Dmen are without contracts as well, and all in need of raises if they are to be brought back?

At least the draft is coming up soon.....wait, that's right...the Flames are without a 1st, 3rd, 4th or 6th round pick. They only have 3 picks total (2nd, 5th, 7th)

Hahaha

Man oh man does Treliving have his work cut out for him.

On the plus side they have a decent farm team and a handful of guys who should be ready for depth roles. On D, Kylington won't cost a ton to sign and I think Mackey is NHL-ready.

The big problem is Gaudreau and Tkachuk. If they don't re-sign with the Flames then it really doesn't matter what else they do - they'll be a lottery team next year. At least they kept their 2023 first.