Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[jayswin]

Originally Posted by atb

Yeah, in reality I know that's the case, but man if Tkachuk signs 1 year and walks, losing both Gaudreau and Tkachuk for nothing is pain. You're also looking at potentially trading Lindholm and Hanifin with 1 year left each. Really wish Sutter had a chance to work longer with this group before getting to this point.

Well, we always knew it was coming with poor coaching choices shaving years off this build.

[1qqaaz]

I don't think Treliving should or shouldn't be fired based off of whether or not Gaudreau/Tkachuk re-signs. It depends on too many factors, many of which we will never have any real knowledge.

And I think we should keep in mind that having Johnny walk as a UFA is not necessarily the worst possible outcome. Rather, the worst possible outcome would be if he got a 8 year contract at $16.3 million per year. Is this ridiculous? Yes. But it's worse than having Johnny walk as a UFA. My point is, a contract isn't necessarily better than having Gaudreau walk as a UFA. Treliving just needs to make sure that he gets the best possible outcome based on the surrounding circumstances.

[Fischy13]

One thing I haven't seen much of in the the guesstimating of JG thoughts is rounding out the team around him. It was alluded to in a rumor about wanting the 1st line intact. If he breaks the bank, he can't have his line mates or his buddy SM. The stat that no team has won the cup with a player over 10M exists, you can't acquire the depth needed to build a winner. So any player that actually wants to win a cup IMO, needs to take a little less to get more help surrounding your top players.

TBH - if they don't take a little less for that reason, I'd say they aren't looking to win a SC as a priority. Personally, I think Johnny is someone who values winning, he has that drive and past achievements as evident in this College years. But at the end, if he wants the money, here or elsewhere, I'd move on and find someone who prioritizes a cup instead of $$. Family is a good reason and all to choose NJ or Philly, but they are a ways from cup contender status, so winning for him isn't priority if he goes to them. If that's his mentality, do we want the Flames to ice a team like that or find players that want to win and be here? Forsberg or Kadri (a center) might be very decent replacements if JG money is free'd up. Might have a little extra even for MT or rounding out the D.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Fischy13

One thing I haven't seen much of in the the guesstimating of JG thoughts is rounding out the team around him. It was alluded to in a rumor about wanting the 1st line intact. If he breaks the bank, he can't have his line mates or his buddy SM. The stat that no team has won the cup with a player over 10M exists, you can't acquire the depth needed to build a winner. So any player that actually wants to win a cup IMO, needs to take a little less to get more help surrounding your top players.

TBH - if they don't take a little less for that reason, I'd say they aren't looking to win a SC as a priority. Personally, I think Johnny is someone who values winning, he has that drive and past achievements as evident in this College years. But at the end, if he wants the money, here or elsewhere, I'd move on and find someone who prioritizes a cup instead of $$. Family is a good reason and all to choose NJ or Philly, but they are a ways from cup contender status, so winning for him isn't priority if he goes to them. If that's his mentality, do we want the Flames to ice a team like that or find players that want to win and be here? Forsberg or Kadri (a center) might be very decent replacements if JG money is free'd up. Might have a little extra even for MT or rounding out the D.

No one has yet won a cup with a player making $10M, but they have with a player making $9.5M. I can't believe that $500,000 makes that much difference.

It's simply a matter on not that many players who make $10M or more.

So, if Johnny wants $10M instead of $9.5M, you'll let him go?

All players want the money. Now a few have left a bit on the table to remain with the team they've played with for years, but we are talking about small amounts at the end of the day. Those small amounts don't really mean a serious lack of depth.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by browna

Knights decide to leak that Cassidy info likely to chagrin of league. Someone's agent leaked the Torts stuff but Flyers likely not to confirm until post finals.

Flames have always been tightlipped in whatever they do, it doesn't get to the Dreger's or Weekes until it is imminently occuring and then it's usually Friedman. Of course Flames have been tighlipped, outside of the dark days of the former GM who never met a microphone or inside source that he didn't like.

JGs agent has been in lockstep with the Flames this entire time, and there has been no negotiating in the press or back and forth over the years. Hacks like Francis try and stir the pot and blur the line between opinion, speculation and facts, but that's outside noise. I don't see either side starting to get loose lips now.

I think outside of a the club announcing a presser in 2h time, will anything start to leak that he's signed.

I don't really agree with the bolded. We have heard tons of rumored deals that didn't end up happening. Flames no more tight lipped than any other team.

[CliffFletcher]

Nobody can say with confidence that a Flames team with Gaudreau will win more playoff series in the next seven seasons than a Devils team with Gaudreau or a Flyers team with Gaudreau. Over that span of time the parity in the NHL will make itself felt, and there’s little difference competitively between 25 or so NHL teams.

[NOISIA]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I don't really agree with the bolded. We have heard tons of rumored deals that didn't end up happening. Flames no more tight lipped than any other team.

Pretty sure its well known that the Leafs leaked the Kadri/Brodie deal. Other teams may be the ones leaking other deals also, like Zucker, etc.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by NOISIA

Pretty sure its well known that the Leafs leaked the Kadri/Brodie deal. Other teams may be the ones leaking other deals also, like Zucker, etc.

Is it always the other team? Remember that BT was so hot over the Zucker deal? That's coming from the Flames. The Stone package too. Lots of examples IMO and little evidence that the Flames are a vault of secrecy.

[VilleN]

Originally Posted by Fischy13

One thing I haven't seen much of in the the guesstimating of JG thoughts is rounding out the team around him. It was alluded to in a rumor about wanting the 1st line intact. If he breaks the bank, he can't have his line mates or his buddy SM. The stat that no team has won the cup with a player over 10M exists, you can't acquire the depth needed to build a winner. So any player that actually wants to win a cup IMO, needs to take a little less to get more help surrounding your top players.

TBH - if they don't take a little less for that reason, I'd say they aren't looking to win a SC as a priority. Personally, I think Johnny is someone who values winning, he has that drive and past achievements as evident in this College years. But at the end, if he wants the money, here or elsewhere, I'd move on and find someone who prioritizes a cup instead of $$. Family is a good reason and all to choose NJ or Philly, but they are a ways from cup contender status, so winning for him isn't priority if he goes to them. If that's his mentality, do we want the Flames to ice a team like that or find players that want to win and be here? Forsberg or Kadri (a center) might be very decent replacements if JG money is free'd up. Might have a little extra even for MT or rounding out the D.

The 10M stat is meaningless. It should be percent of the cap - that's what actually matters. For example, in 2016 when the Pens won the cup the cap was 73M, Crosby cap hit was 8.7M or 11.9% of the cap, Malkin cap hit was 9.5M or 13%. 10M of the current 82.5M cap is 12%. So the number is irrelevant.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Is it always the other team? Remember that BT was so hot over the Zucker deal? That's coming from the Flames. The Stone package too. Lots of examples IMO and little evidence that the Flames are a vault of secrecy.

My general belief is that most leaks come from player agents.

[Major Major]

Originally Posted by VilleN

The 10M stat is meaningless. It should be percent of the cap - that's what actually matters. For example, in 2016 when the Pens won the cup the cap was 73M, Crosby cap hit was 8.7M or 11.9% of the cap, Malkin cap hit was 9.5M or 13%. 10M of the current 82.5M cap is 12%. So the number is irrelevant.

To add onto this, all signs point to a steep cap increase in the next 3-4 years. I would not be shocked to see players of Johnny's calibre making 15 + before the contract is half over. The agent probably wants that baked into the deal. It's why I wouldn't be crushed to go above 11. Imagine neon Leon being the league's first 15 million dollar player followed closely by Connor being the league's first 20 million dollar player. All while Johnny makes close to 10.

[Strange Brew]

Most organizations have leaks not just sports teams. You want a tightly sealed organization with no leaks, look at Lou Lamoriello.

I personally doubt that agents are leaking that Treliving was "hot" over the failed Zucker trade or that KK couldn't be reached to approve a deal.

[kipperiggy]

Who's the jerk that started circulating the old contract announcement from 2016 on FB?

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by Fischy13

The stat that no team has won the cup with a player over 10M exists, you can't acquire the depth needed to build a winner.

Up until 2016 no team with a player making over 9M had won the Cup either. Then Malkin's Penguins won it twice followed by Ovechkin.

Now this season in this Conference Finals alone you had McDavid (12.5), Panarin (11.6), Kucherov (9.5), Vasilevskiy (9.5), Rantanen (9.25), and Makar (9.0) making 9M or more along with Point (9.5) and Fox (9.5) with extensions for next season.

When Ovechkin signed his first 9.5M contract, which he won his only Cup under, it was 19% of the cap at the time. Crosby's 8.7M was 17%, Lidstrom's 7.6M was 17%, Chara's 7.5M was 17%, Neidermayer's 6.75M was 17%. This is ignoring a long list of players who didn't win, like Iginla and his 18% of cap first 7M contract.

Chicago (2010, 2013, 2015), LA (2012, 2014) and Blues are the teams that I believe that didn't have a player who signed a 17% of cap or more contract when they won their Cups. Ironically, those teams would result in the first three 10M+* cap hit players in Kane, Toews and Kopitar and when they won in 2015, Kane and Toews had their extensions in place. Chicago also had retirement contracts of Hoss and Keith which greatly artificially lowered their cap hits that wouldn't fly today.

Ignoring that the cap might explode after the COVID recovery, a 17% contract with a 82.5M salary cap is....over 14M.

*(Ignoring the Jeremy Welshs)

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by 1qqaaz

I don't think Treliving should or shouldn't be fired based off of whether or not Gaudreau/Tkachuk re-signs. It depends on too many factors, many of which we will never have any real knowledge.

And I think we should keep in mind that having Johnny walk as a UFA is not necessarily the worst possible outcome. Rather, the worst possible outcome would be if he got a 8 year contract at $16.3 million per year. Is this ridiculous? Yes. But it's worse than having Johnny walk as a UFA. My point is, a contract isn't necessarily better than having Gaudreau walk as a UFA. Treliving just needs to make sure that he gets the best possible outcome based on the surrounding circumstances.

100% agree. I personally want Johnny back but there is a limit where if he signs if the contract is too much I prefer him to walk. $16.3 is the worst possible outcome but $12 mil or more and I just can’t see this team winning even if the cap gets a huge bump in 3 years

I personally would be skeptical they can win any time during his deal at $11 mil per year

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Fischy13

One thing I haven't seen much of in the the guesstimating of JG thoughts is rounding out the team around him. It was alluded to in a rumor about wanting the 1st line intact. If he breaks the bank, he can't have his line mates or his buddy SM. The stat that no team has won the cup with a player over 10M exists, you can't acquire the depth needed to build a winner. So any player that actually wants to win a cup IMO, needs to take a little less to get more help surrounding your top players.

TBH - if they don't take a little less for that reason, I'd say they aren't looking to win a SC as a priority. Personally, I think Johnny is someone who values winning, he has that drive and past achievements as evident in this College years. But at the end, if he wants the money, here or elsewhere, I'd move on and find someone who prioritizes a cup instead of $$. Family is a good reason and all to choose NJ or Philly, but they are a ways from cup contender status, so winning for him isn't priority if he goes to them. If that's his mentality, do we want the Flames to ice a team like that or find players that want to win and be here? Forsberg or Kadri (a center) might be very decent replacements if JG money is free'd up. Might have a little extra even for MT or rounding out the D.

There are 13 players on different 9 teams making $10M (+Barkov when his deal kicks in).

CHI 7 seasons with a 10M player
LAK 5
TOR 4
MTL 4
EDM 4
SJ 3
NYR 3
FLA 3
Eichel 4

So 37 teams' seasons out of 216 total team seasons in that span. 17%.

But really it's been only the last 3-4 years where about a quarter of the teams have had a 10M player.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by VilleN

The 10M stat is meaningless. It should be percent of the cap - that's what actually matters. For example, in 2016 when the Pens won the cup the cap was 73M, Crosby cap hit was 8.7M or 11.9% of the cap, Malkin cap hit was 9.5M or 13%. 10M of the current 82.5M cap is 12%. So the number is irrelevant.

There was a story on the Athletic a few weeks ago that goes over how unlucky Canadian teams have been over the decades in regards to winning a cup.

https://theathletic.com/3353799/2022...y-cup-drought/

But still … 28 seasons? Somebody can’t step up and win one championship in all that time, if only so we don’t have to hear about it anymore?

On the surface, the odds are hard to fathom. There are seven Canadian franchises, nearly a full quarter of the NHL’s 32 teams. Those numbers have changed over the years, but the ratio has been roughly consistent, meaning you’d expect a Canadian team to win a Cup every four or five years. Instead, nothing.

Various attempts have been made over the years to calculate just how unlikely all this would be. We asked our own Dom Luszczyszyn to crunch the numbers, factoring in the quality of each season’s Canadian entries. Here’s what he came up with, using odds data from SportsOddsHistory.com:

You’re reading that correctly. Since 1993, the numbers tell us that it would have been more likely for Canada to win 10 or more Stanley Cups than to win zero. And yet, here we are.

There's a lot of parity in the league so the 10 million theory is likely nothing more than chance as I don't think salary structure has much of a bearing and it's more about bounces and luck which simply haven't gone the way of Canadian teams for some reason.

[dustygoon]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

If BT let's his star player go to UFA and sign elsewhere he absolutely 100% should be fired.

It’s tough to say right? I think it depends on how he handled last summer. If Tre was too cheap and didn’t predict at least some rebound in JG’s play, he could be on the hot seat for mishandling. But if he worked to sign him last summer but was rebuffed then tough to blame Treliving.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by dustygoon

It’s tough to say right? I think it depends on how he handled last summer. If Tre was too cheap and didn’t predict at least some rebound in JG’s play, he could be on the hot seat for mishandling. But if he worked to sign him last summer but was rebuffed then tough to blame Treliving.

Fun to speculate in the summer, I get that.

But we don't know anything.

Treliving could have stubbornly refused to go beyond a number that he now has to blow past to get it done.

Treliving could have taken what he thought was the Gaudreau camp's final and best number to ownership and was shot down.

The whole thing may have fallen apart and he looked to trade him.

He may have been told he couldn't trade him.

Doubt we ever know.

But there was likely more in play than Gaudreau saying I need $8.5M and Treliving alone deciding he wouldn't be worth that.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Fun to speculate in the summer, I get that.

But we don't know anything.

Treliving could have stubbornly refused to go beyond a number that he know has to blow past to get it done.

Treliving could have taken what he thought was the Gaudreau camp's final and best number to ownership and was shot down.

The whole thing may have fallen apart and he looked to trade him.

He may have been told he couldn't trade him.

Doubt we ever know.

But there was likely more in play than Gaudreau saying I need $8.5M and Treliving alone deciding he wouldn't be worth that.

Bang on. We don't know and likely never will know what happened then and now.

.