Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

There’s zero evidence Landeskog was tampered with. He just waited until the Avs were desperate. I don’t think tampering is needed. GMs and agents are well aware of the marketplace ranges.

I don't think tampering happens either, but players talk. Agents talk. Team officials talk. It seems obvious to me that in the time leading up to free agency Gaudreau will have a clear idea about what sort of offers are coming, and from whom.

I just don't think there is any rush from either side to get a deal signed until after the SCF. I very much doubt that the Flames are panicking at this point.

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[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Gaudreau certainly had the ability to sign a long term contract before the season if that was important to him.

And the Flames certainly had the ability to extend a long term offer before the season. But there is still uncertainty that this ever actually happened. I have no doubt that numbers and terms have been discussed at length, but I suspect nothing ever so far as to table a firm offer from either side.

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[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Gaudreau certainly had the ability to sign a long term contract before the season if that was important to him.

It depends on where they were in the negotiating process.

[taxbuster]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

The Flames are about 3 weeks away from losing their best player and receiving no value for it him.

FYP. He's a person, not a thing.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I think his agent will want the 8 year sure thing for selfish reasons. He could easily be fired or retire before JG has another contract (as well as all the other risks).

Perhaps, but if Johnny is smart he'll listen to lots of perspectives. A smart agent isn't going to persuade his client down a path that runs counter to the client's heart...that's how you end up getting fired.

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Yes I understand your point but I think it's highly unlikely he's holding out on year 8 hoping he can secure a future $2MM (or whatever) in difference. It's most likely he will be advised to take the most money he can right now and "who knows what happens in the future" and I would agree with that advice.

Of course not. This is just one of dozens (if not hundreds) of factors to consider.

His gut, head, and heart are each thinking slightly different things right now. He's probably leaning slightly one way or the other, but with these kinds of decisions it can be hard to even know what you think you want. He's probably running various scenarios of pros/cons through his head all the time right now, and this is just one of the variables that has weights on each side of the scales.

Another would be time value of money. A higher AAV 7 year deal gives him more money to invest sooner. That could easily work out to $500k-1M over 7 years. Just another consideration that might mitigate any delta between 7 and 8 years.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Perhaps, but if Johnny is smart he'll listen to lots of perspectives. A smart agent isn't going to persuade his client down a path that runs counter to the client's heart...that's how you end up getting fired.




Of course not. This is just one of dozens (if not hundreds) of factors to consider.

His gut, head, and heart are each thinking slightly different things right now. He's probably leaning slightly one way or the other, but with these kinds of decisions it can be hard to even know what you think you want. He's probably running various scenarios of pros/cons through his head all the time right now, and this is just one of the variables that has weights on each side of the scales.

Another would be time value of money. A higher AAV 7 year deal gives him more money to invest sooner. That could easily work out to $500k-1M over 7 years. Just another consideration that might mitigate any delta between 7 and 8 years.

I don’t think the time value of money would play a huge part in it as more than likely both contracts would be front loaded with bonuses as much as possible

If player didn’t value year 8 because they might get a contract in 7 years worth $5 mil then you would see more players sign shorter term at Johnnys age. Especially with very high escrow and a flat cap. Why wouldn’t Johnny sign 2 years for $20 to $24 mil with high bonuses and when the Covid revenue is paid back and the cap increases to $88 to $90 mil in a few years at age 31 he probably getting 7 years $10 mil from any teams and his earnings would be much higher especially dodging escrow payments those first 2 years

I’m thinking the risk is not worth it so 8 years imo makes a difference at his age

[FlamesAddiction]

One thing about JG is that he bets on himself. I don't think he is sweating an 8th year of guaranteed premium salary because in his mind, he will probably still be able to make a case for it after 7 years.

It's not without risk because injuries happen and players decline, but he doesn't seem like the kind of guy that worries about "what ifs". He could have signed an extension sooner, but he bet on himself and now stands to make tens of millions more because of it. It makes rolling the dice in 7 years a lot more palatable when you have already won the bet once.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

I don’t think the time value of money would play a huge part in it as more than likely both contracts would be front loaded with bonuses as much as possible

If player didn’t value year 8 because they might get a contract in 7 years worth $5 mil then you would see more players sign shorter term at Johnnys age. Especially with very high escrow and a flat cap. Why wouldn’t Johnny sign 2 years for $20 to $24 mil with high bonuses and when the Covid revenue is paid back and the cap increases to $88 to $90 mil in a few years at age 31 he probably getting 7 years $10 mil from any teams and his earnings would be much higher especially dodging escrow payments those first 2 years

I’m thinking the risk is not worth it so 8 years imo makes a difference at his age

A 2 year deal would create insane risk. 7 vs 8 yrs and we're talking about a few % either way - which typically means a few million dollars, but there are lots of ways to rationalize that.

Most 8 year deals are inked a full season ahead, so a competing 7 year deal simply isn't in the picture. The player is usually* conceding a bit of potential upside to secure generational wealth before he has to play another competitive game. The risk vs. reward equation is very, very different that Johnny's situation.


It is rare for this kind of player to leave as a UFA because it is rare that they make it past their final TDL without a deal:


Stayed
Landeskog
Stamkos (had benefit of courting period AND 8 year option)
Mark Stone (signed shortly after TDL)
...
TJ Oshie - signed 8x5.75M on June 23; not sure if he had the courting period?
Anders Lee
Duchene - both he and Lee got to July 1 and signed 7 year deals...who knows if 8 years was ever on the table?


Moved (7 year deals only)
Tavares
Panarin
Bobrovsky
Pietrangelo
Hamilton (maybe a tier below, but you might say the same about Landeskog...)
...
Krug
Hyman
Okposo
Lucic
Ladd
Niskanen

Hayes and Yandle had UFA rights traded to sign before UFA period...

Suter/Parise takes us back to 2012 before the 8 year limit came into effect


I might be missing a few here, but it seems like we have 7 examples of elite players getting to this stage of negotiations, and more often than not they've given up the 8th year and moved elsewhere. CAR held firm on a lower number with Hamilton, and STL bungled the AP deal (though they did want to keep him), but CBJ and NYI tried hard to keep the other three guys...

[Vinny01]

Duchene should be moved down to the moved list he went to Nashville on July 1.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

It depends on where they were in the negotiating process.

I’m confused as to what your point is or if you are just being argumentative.

My point is that there is some evidence that Gaudreau is willing to take financial risk over long term stability and that fans should be careful not to overvalue the 8th year.

I can’t imagine a scenario where Gaudreau expresses interest in signing a long term deal last summer and Flames don’t want to discuss it. Could you explain how that would have worked?

Of course they might not have agreed on a number but Gaudreau would clearly have known what was on the table that he was risking.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I don't think tampering happens either, but players talk. Agents talk. Team officials talk. It seems obvious to me that in the time leading up to free agency Gaudreau will have a clear idea about what sort of offers are coming, and from whom.

I just don't think there is any rush from either side to get a deal signed until after the SCF. I very much doubt that the Flames are panicking at this point.

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Agreed. I think they just didn't get far enough during the previous off-season and Gaudreau maybe rightly wanted to improve his numbers (which doesn't mean just for other teams). They went dark in the season and assuming he went for a decompress for a week or so after the second round exit, they've probably only just restarted talking.

This process is a lot more formulaic and businesslike than a lot of people assume, if the soap opera stuff some people describe here is any indication. Treliving especially seems to approach negotiations from a pretty standardized method.

[Vinny01]

Johnny has all the leverage and if I was him I would be holding onto these things to see if the Flames blink. This is assuming 8 years is mutually agreed upon which it obviously would be.

1- Full NMC. No variation like many of these deals where they turn into a limited no trade like Lucic. Full NMC where Johnny would have control
2- heavy in bonuses that make it tough to buyout and I believe are also exempt from escrow? Whatever the maximum in the CBA is for upfront money and bonuses should be in the deal
3- Letter option. May or may not be important to Johnny but if it is he should leverage the C or an A in the deal

I would also be asking for a detailed plan on how this team will remain competitive for the next 8 years and try and understand what the organization is planning. Typically something that many franchise players are gifted with. Concessions to any of the above can be made but at this point there is no rush until the days and hours leading up to free agency. The team squeezed Johnny in 2016 so now he has the option to do the same

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Johnny has all the leverage and if I was him I would be holding onto these things to see if the Flames blink. This is assuming 8 years is mutually agreed upon which it obviously would be.

1- Full NMC. No variation like many of these deals where they turn into a limited no trade like Lucic. Full NMC where Johnny would have control
2- heavy in bonuses that make it tough to buyout and I believe are also exempt from escrow? Whatever the maximum in the CBA is for upfront money and bonuses should be in the deal
3- Letter option. May or may not be important to Johnny but if it is he should leverage the C or an A in the deal

I would also be asking for a detailed plan on how this team will remain competitive for the next 8 years and try and understand what the organization is planning. Typically something that many franchise players are gifted with. Concessions to any of the above can be made but at this point there is no rush until the days and hours leading up to free agency. The team squeezed Johnny in 2016 so now he has the option to do the same

I think it would rather naïve for him to assume that any future plans they were to make him privy to are worth anything at all. As we all know, a team and its fortunes can change on a dime.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

I think it would rather naïve for him to assume that any future plans they were to make him privy to are worth anything at all. As we all know, a team and its fortunes can change on a dime.

Ya that is fair especially anything beyond the upcoming year.

I guess he could ask for assurances that Chucky is signed this summer and that they plan to ensure Lindy is locked up before he can be a free agent.

Sounds like from the leaked offer the team (if you trust a random CP poster) gave Johnny that assurance was made regarding the top line as well as the letter.

At this point unless the team is giving everything he wants there isn’t a rush to sign. Johnny is plan A until the 8 year option goes away because at that point why would he stay here leaving $10M+ on the table

[MrMike]

Does the 8 year option ever run out? Is the UFA date the minute he can no longer sign an 8 year or can it always be an 8 year with us?

[442scotty]

Not getting my hopes up. Just wish it was over one way or another

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

If you were him, what would you do?

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Yes I understand your point but I think it's highly unlikely he's holding out on year 8 hoping he can secure a future $2MM (or whatever) in difference. It's most likely he will be advised to take the most money he can right now and "who knows what happens in the future" and I would agree with that advice.

If $2 million in future money matters little to him then the advantage of Flames being able to offer an 8 year deal isn’t worth much.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by MrMike

Does the 8 year option ever run out? Is the UFA date the minute he can no longer sign an 8 year or can it always be an 8 year with us?

My understanding is that the minute he becomes an unrestricted free agent, the 8th year is no longer an option. It's supposed to be an incentive for teams and players to sign a deal before reaching that point.

[Macho0978]

[QUOTE=powderjunkie;8335731]A 2 year deal would create insane risk. 7 vs 8 yrs and we're talking about a few % either way - which typically means a few million dollars, but there are lots of ways to rationalize that.

Most 8 year deals are inked a full season ahead, so a competing 7 year deal simply isn't in the picture. The player is usually* conceding a bit of potential upside to secure generational wealth before he has to play another competitive game. The risk vs. reward equation is very, very different that Johnny's situation.


It is rare for this kind of player to leave as a UFA because it is rare that they make it past their final TDL without a deal:


Stayed
Landeskog
Stamkos (had benefit of courting period AND 8 year option)
Mark Stone (signed shortly after TDL)
...
TJ Oshie - signed 8x5.75M on June 23; not sure if he had the courting period?
Anders Lee
Duchene - both he and Lee got to July 1 and signed 7 year deals...who knows if 8 years was ever on the table?


Moved (7 year deals only)
Tavares


I don’t think Johnny will even consider a 2 year deal I was just suggesting that because some are suggesting that Johnny won’t look at the total value of a 8 year deal over a 7 year deal because he might get a $5 mil deal when he’s 36. I doubt that will even be a consideration.

7 years at $11 mil is $77 mil
8 years at $10 mil is $80 mil

Money alone I doubt johnny will consider what he could get in 7 years as added value to the 7 year deal

As for the list of guys who signed 7 year deal almost all signed with new teams and I’m thinking in most cases money wasn’t why they left. Especially with panarin Bobrovsky Tavares. Cap space probably played a part in why Krug and Hyman moved on. Hamilton probably had to do with Carolina being cheap or location as well

Players like johnny being in this situation though seems like at this point he’s more likely to leave otherwise he would be signed by now but his up and down play combined with Treliving just doesn’t seem to care about risk of waiting til this point could contribute to why we are at this point.

I’d love to know what Treliving actually offered last summer

[Icon]

I just want some actual news from either player or the team, one way or the other.