Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

He’d need a 7m contract in the year after an 11x7 just to match a 10.5x8. You listed a few guys who signed $5Mplus contacts at that age. I could list a lot more very good players who didn’t. Perry signed for less, so did Carter, Getzlaf, Stastny etc. Plus, he can do the same after a guaranteed 8 years, if he wants.

I really don't see most players who are in the 7/8 year contract conversation being overly worried about their next potential twilight years contract. Johnny would be 36 at this point and has already taken a deal that has set him up for life, and is about to take another one that will set his family up for life this time around.

If he's signing in Calgary for 8 years, its because he want's to raise a family here, believes this group can have success and feels he's being fairly compensated. I can't see any scenario where he's hedging bets on a 7 year deal and giving up on another year of guaranteed money so that he can maybe sign a 5/6/7 AAV deal to retire on somewhere else unless he simply wants out of here.

At that point, if he's still playing at a high level and wants to keep it going, it would be simply because he's chasing a cup and isn't at all concerned about his AAV.

[PuckSlap]

I’m super exited to sign these guys.. cause we’ve been so successful in the playoffs.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by PuckSlap

I’m super exited to sign these guys.. cause we’ve been so successful in the playoffs.

That's what Capitals fans said about AO and Backstrom and Blues fans with Tarasenko, Pietrangelo, etc. When you have a good team you just have to keep chipping away and hope that one year is the year you get the bounces in the playoffs as being good in the regular season guarantees nothing or the Panthers would be in the finals. The Panthers could still win a cup but it could take a few more years of playoff failure. I don't think this organization wants to rebuild so I would rather they keep what they have and be a playoff team over being a perennial 7-10 team in the division.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Hang on, this is where I get caught up. Again, why would he just walk away or “give up” on $3-5MM?

Would you? I don’t care how rich you are, people don’t just look the other way from that amount of money.

Murray Edwards requires his approval over an extremely low expense threshold at his company, as an example. Would Murray just go “meh” over $3-5MM? And if so, why doesn’t he just offer it to Gaudreau then and settle it?

Simple example:

8x10M = 80M
7x11M = 77M --> $3M less.

But if he signs for 1x$5M in 2029 then he'd get to 82M over 8 years. Obviously there is a wide range of possible deals in 2029, including $0.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by activeStick

An extra year at +10M is not something any player sees as nothing lol.

It’s not nothing obviously. But Gaudreau already bet on himself this year playing without a long term deal. The salary cap could double in 7 years and he may not value the 8th year as much as some might think.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

It’s not nothing obviously. But Gaudreau already bet on himself this year playing without a long term deal. The salary cap could double in 7 years and he may not value the 8th year as much as some might think.

You thought he should hold out? Or did you think there was a deal he rejected?

[ComixZone]

27 days, 13 hours, 33 minutes, 30 seconds until Johnny hits free agency...

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

You thought he should hold out? Or did you think there was a deal he rejected?

You're suggesting the flames had no interest in signing him before the season? What?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

You're suggesting the flames had no interest in signing him before the season? What?

I'm suggesting they didn't arrive at a deal and paused the discussions. Contract negotiations take time. Just because they didn't sign a deal doesn't mean they made a final offer and Johnny rejected it to "bet on himself". And as for that, this last year may have bumped him up somewhat, but probably not that significantly. Treliving and the other GMs don't work that way.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

He’d need a 7m contract in the year after an 11x7 just to match a 10.5x8. You listed a few guys who signed $5Mplus contacts at that age. I could list a lot more very good players who didn’t. Perry signed for less, so did Carter, Getzlaf, Stastny etc. Plus, he can do the same after a guaranteed 8 years, if he wants.

For sure, it's a risk v. reward thing. Ultimately it's just one of several ways to rationalize leaving however much money on the table for a shorter deal. There are a ton of variables that can influence the final few % when comparing different deals. You obviously want to make the best deal you can, but at the end of the day you only need to justify it to yourself.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

For sure, it's a risk v. reward thing. Ultimately it's just one of several ways to rationalize leaving however much money on the table for a shorter deal. There are a ton of variables that can influence the final few % when comparing different deals. You obviously want to make the best deal you can, but at the end of the day you only need to justify it to yourself.

I think his agent will want the 8 year sure thing for selfish reasons. He could easily be fired or retire before JG has another contract (as well as all the other risks).

[Buff]

Originally Posted by Jordan!

He’s not signing I’m Calgary..

[OptimalTates]

More out of curiosity but looking at some players who signed past 35+ in the last decade or so:

Whitney signed a 35+ contract for 130% of his highest cap prior (which in turn was a 35+ contract)
Williams signed a 35+ contract for 120% of his highest cap prior
Thornton signed a 35+ contract for 115% of his highest cap prior
Datsyuk signed a 35+ contract for 110% of his highest cap prior
Gonchar signed a 35+ contract for 110% of his highest cap prior
St. Louis signed a 35+ contract for 105% of his highest cap prior
Markov signed a 35+ contract for 100% of his highest cap prior
Ovechkin signed a 35+ contract for 100% of his highest cap prior
Alfredsson signed a 35+ contract for 100% of his highest cap prior
Kovalchuk signed a 35+ contract for 95% of his highest cap prior
Timonen signed a 35+ contract for 95% of his highest cap prior
Doan signed a 35+ contract for 90% of his highest cap prior
Elias signed a 35+ contract for 90% of his highest cap prior
Chara signed a 35+ contract for 90% of his highest cap prior
Pavelski signed a 35+ contract for 85% of his highest cap prior
Visnovsky signed a 35+ contract for 85% of his highest cap prior
Koivu signed a 35+ contract for 80% of his highest cap prior
Bieksa signed a 35+ contract for 85% of his highest cap prior
Iginla signed a 35+ contract for 85% of his highest cap prior
Pronger signed a 35+ contract for 80% of his highest cap prior (and with bonus years...)

Some of them multiple years, some of them bonus laden. Malkin will be added to the list shortly.

Inversely Spezza and Parise signed 35+ contracts for 10% of their highest cap, and many many many more players never play past 35.

Gaudreau is an elite player without injury history and elite players tend to be able to perform at high levels for longer. However, he isn't known for being a fitness freak like many of those players listed who still remain big and strong when they age, but Kane is about to be 34 and still performing at elite levels. Of course he loses guaranteed income with signing a smaller total value 7 year contract than an 8, but I highly doubt his agent is telling him that he should be assuming that 8 year is worth $0 if he signs a 7 year contract (and if it is, that's not good for a team signing him to 8 years lol).

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I'm suggesting they didn't arrive at a deal and paused the discussions. Contract negotiations take time. Just because they didn't sign a deal doesn't mean they made a final offer and Johnny rejected it to "bet on himself". And as for that, this last year may have bumped him up somewhat, but probably not that significantly. Treliving and the other GMs don't work that way.

Gaudreau certainly had the ability to sign a long term contract before the season if that was important to him.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

For sure, it's a risk v. reward thing. Ultimately it's just one of several ways to rationalize leaving however much money on the table for a shorter deal. There are a ton of variables that can influence the final few % when comparing different deals. You obviously want to make the best deal you can, but at the end of the day you only need to justify it to yourself.

I agree and it's not just the singular value of the 8th year. It may be considerably easier for Gaudreau to sign say a 3 year deal when 35 vs 36. There are lots of variables.

The idea that $80 million over 8 years is better than anything less over a shorter term is just flawed IMO.

A lot of this debate might be missing the central point which has been part of the rumored pitch from the Flames. Does Gaudreau value the stability and honor that would come from being associated with one team for the majority of his career?

I'm sure he likes the city just fine to the extent he is in Calgary. And the money will work out no matter what. But how much does he value the Flames organization? Five coaches thus far over his career and his current coach has one more year left. fairly limited playoff success. It strikes me that he could be very well be open to listening to some pitches.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by VilleN

Lol thanks Nostradamus... Also, when it comes to watching sports, if you find yourself in a panic over something you may want to re-assess your priorities.

I am confident you understand the nuance of some internet person saying to "panic" with respect to following some hockey team as a fan. If you honestly think my heart rate is up I don't know what to tell you.

The Flames should absolutely be beginning to panic and quite frankly that word has a variety of meanings and interpretations but I still think is adequate for what I am trying to convey. 3 weeks may seem like a lot, but in high stakes contract negotiations where it's possible there are a variety of negotiating levers to work out, might not be that much time. Also keep in mind people generally speaking are busy and only work when they can work and have other clients / competing priorities / etc. 3 weeks in a contract like this can get burnt real ####ing fast, actually.

This deal should have been locked down last summer but I am willing to bet the Flames were getting a bit cute with it. That's pure speculation obviously but just reading between the lines on how they have operated with these types of deals before. We shall see but definitely the "no worries lots of time" crowd are not quite right here.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

Simple example:

8x10M = 80M
7x11M = 77M --> $3M less.

But if he signs for 1x$5M in 2029 then he'd get to 82M over 8 years. Obviously there is a wide range of possible deals in 2029, including $0.

Yes I understand your point but I think it's highly unlikely he's holding out on year 8 hoping he can secure a future $2MM (or whatever) in difference. It's most likely he will be advised to take the most money he can right now and "who knows what happens in the future" and I would agree with that advice.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I agree and it's not just the singular value of the 8th year. It may be considerably easier for Gaudreau to sign say a 3 year deal when 35 vs 36. There are lots of variables.

The idea that $80 million over 8 years is better than anything less over a shorter term is just flawed IMO.

A lot of this debate might be missing the central point which has been part of the rumored pitch from the Flames. Does Gaudreau value the stability and honor that would come from being associated with one team for the majority of his career?

I'm sure he likes the city just fine to the extent he is in Calgary. And the money will work out no matter what. But how much does he value the Flames organization? Five coaches thus far over his career and his current coach has one more year left. fairly limited playoff success. It strikes me that he could be very well be open to listening to some pitches.

If you were him, what would you do?

[Johnny Makarov]

Originally Posted by Moneyhands23

8x13 is nutters in my opinion

It is but my handle isn't Matthew Makarov or Sergei Giordano for a reason.

Make it happen!!! and Forever a Flame Makarov!!

[Moneyhands23]

Originally Posted by Johnny Makarov

It is but my handle isn't Matthew Makarov or Sergei Giordano for a reason.

Make it happen!!! and Forever a Flame Makarov!!

Oh I See now! Will let's just both hope he signs and it's a better deal