Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

It would be negligent of Treliving to not try and get the best deal possible, in a cap world. He could get JG in a day by agreeing to 11M. But he may well lose Mangiapane or Tkachuk and have no way to replace them.

$9.5 versus $10.5 is indeed $8M. But a rival team would have to give Gaudreau 10.9 over 7 years just to beat their 9.5. If they offer him 10, a rival team has to pay 11.4 to match the contract.

It’s not “strong arm” to make an opening offer of the third biggest winger contract in NHL history. Of the two higher, one is Panarin’s and the other is Kane’s, and we can see how Kane’s (and Toew’s) contract affected the Hawks.

I expect they will end up somewhere between 10 and 10.5 and it will be very very lucrative for JG and very tough on the Flames’ cap.

I understand all that and agree. It is strong arm if he doesn’t move off that number- and quick.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

I understand all that and agree. It is strong arm if he doesn’t move off that number- and quick.

Why assume that negotiating parties won’t negotiate?

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

It would be negligent of Treliving to not try and get the best deal possible, in a cap world. He could get JG in a day by agreeing to 11M. But he may well lose Mangiapane or Tkachuk and have no way to replace them.

$9.5 versus $10.5 is indeed $8M. But a rival team would have to give Gaudreau 10.9 over 7 years just to beat their 9.5. If they offer him 10, a rival team has to pay 11.4 to match the contract.

It’s not “strong arm” to make an opening offer of the third biggest winger contract in NHL history. Of the two higher, one is Panarin’s and the other is Kane’s, and we can see how Kane’s (and Toew’s) contract affected the Hawks.

I expect they will end up somewhere between 10 and 10.5 and it will be very very lucrative for JG and very tough on the Flames’ cap.

I don’t think this will ever come down to and extra million or so given to Johnny each year.

It will come down to whether Johnny truly wants to play in Calgary or back east at the end of the day.

I expect he’s torn on that decision, as he’s basically a loyal guy and feels that Calgary has treated him well and he has enjoyed his time here.

But I expect he does have a calling to play back closer to home, otherwise he would have already signed an extension.

I expect Johnny is juggling these conflicting feelings now as he makes a decision.

Sure he hasn’t any offers from other teams yet, but he knows, more or less, that when (and if) that time comes, those offers will be there.

If Johnny signs before the UFA period begins, it’s because he has decided he wants to stay, and he knows that any offer that he might receive that is actually more lucrative won’t sway him.

[tkflames]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I’m not sure anyone ever has “ a good chance at a cup”.

32 teams, odds are always long.

And it’s not like Calgary has some sort of legacy of playoff success.

Ask Selanne and Kariya signing with the Avs in 03/04. Hockey is a weak link game (unlike basketball) with a salary cap. The only chance you have is grabbing enough top end players, taking low contracts on an existing high depth team (and even that didn't work for Selanne and Kariya). If you want to get paid, you (Gaudreau/Tkachuk) have to be the reason the team wins the cup and leave enough room (cap wise) to have the depth to take multiple runs.

It's why all those hockey cliches are relevant: "Your best players have to be your best players", "You need 10 defenders in the playoffs", "you need to be able to beat a fast team, a skilled team and a big team, followed by an all around team" etc.

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I don’t think this will ever come down to and extra million or so given to Johnny each year.

Oh I don’t know about that. $8mm is a lot of money to anyone. Besides, if you don’t offer it to him you will never know.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by AC

That official courting period is gone now.

From the NHLPA Memorandum of Understanding:
"UFA Interview Period The UFA Interview Period (CBA Exhibit 15) shall be eliminated".

If you actually believe that, I don't know what to tell you. If there were no period of negotiation prior to free agency opening, then contracts would not be registered with the league office and players signed minutes after the start of the free agent period. Contracts are long and complex. They require time to review and clear up language. The more teams bidding for a player, the longer the process will take. Because the number of immediate signings after free agency starts it is obvious the negotiation window still exists and is heavily used to get deals done.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

If you actually believe that, I don't know what to tell you. If there were no period of negotiation prior to free agency opening, then contracts would not be registered with the league office and players signed minutes after the start of the free agent period. Contracts are long and complex. They require time to review and clear up language. The more teams bidding for a player, the longer the process will take. Because the number of immediate signings after free agency starts it is obvious the negotiation window still exists and is heavily used to get deals done.

Those contracts typically are where players have been freed to talk to other teams. They don’t always announce that either, but we all know who’s actually going to UFA with only a few exceptions every year. Those players have already been cut loose.

[Lanny_McDonald]

^^^ So every UFA.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

^^^ So every UFA.

No. Most big pending UFAs re-sign, in fact.

[PepsiFree]

Contracts in the NHL are also pretty standardised, I imagine. There’s not going to be a lot of surprises, and if there are, they would stand out like a sore thumb.

It’s probably also why things are announced so quickly. A player basically just has to agree to terms to announce they’ve signed with whatever team, the legal details and paperwork can get sorted as it goes.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

No. Most big pending UFAs re-sign, in fact.

So you're going to suggest that Landeskog, as an example here, did not know exactly what other teams were willing to offer before re-upping with the Avs? Come on, you're smarter than that. Landeskog and his team of handlers let that play out the longest they could to see if they could get a ridiculous offer out of someone and top the offer/conditions the Avs were giving him. Players may not be able to speak to other teams, but their representatives are always talking with other teams to know what kind of interest and possible deals could be made for their client. If you want to play dumb, go right ahead, but as an attorney you know how much review goes into contracts, especially complex multi-million dollar contracts with all sorts of clauses and conditions. These things take time, especially when comparing competing contracts. There is a reason why Gaudreau is slow playing this. He wants to know exactly what money and conditions are on the table from other teams before he decides if the Flames are the fit for him. Just like Landeskog. Hopefully the Flames get a similar outcome as the Lansekog process.

[GGG]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

If you actually believe that, I don't know what to tell you. If there were no period of negotiation prior to free agency opening, then contracts would not be registered with the league office and players signed minutes after the start of the free agent period. Contracts are long and complex. They require time to review and clear up language. The more teams bidding for a player, the longer the process will take. Because the number of immediate signings after free agency starts it is obvious the negotiation window still exists and is heavily used to get deals done.

An NHL player contract is not complex anymore. For the vast majorities of players there are only 5 variables everything else is predetermined.

Salary, Term, NT/NM, signing bonus vs Salary, Front Loading.

The Language of the contracts is already defined by the CBA.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

So you're going to suggest that Landeskog, as an example here, did not know exactly what other teams were willing to offer before re-upping with the Avs? Come on, you're smarter than that. Landeskog and his team of handlers let that play out the longest they could to see if they could get a ridiculous offer out of someone and top the offer/conditions the Avs were giving him. Players may not be able to speak to other teams, but their representatives are always talking with other teams to know what kind of interest and possible deals could be made for their client. If you want to play dumb, go right ahead, but as an attorney you know how much review goes into contracts, especially complex multi-million dollar contracts with all sorts of clauses and conditions. These things take time, especially when comparing competing contracts. There is a reason why Gaudreau is slow playing this. He wants to know exactly what money and conditions are on the table from other teams before he decides if the Flames are the fit for him. Just like Landeskog. Hopefully the Flames get a similar outcome as the Lansekog process.

https://coloradohockeynow.com/2021/0...ith-avalanche/

As was said above, you don’t have to actually go and talk to other teams to know the marketplace. There was never any sign Landeskog talked to other teams.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

So you're going to suggest that Landeskog, as an example here, did not know exactly what other teams were willing to offer before re-upping with the Avs? Come on, you're smarter than that. Landeskog and his team of handlers let that play out the longest they could to see if they could get a ridiculous offer out of someone and top the offer/conditions the Avs were giving him. Players may not be able to speak to other teams, but their representatives are always talking with other teams to know what kind of interest and possible deals could be made for their client. If you want to play dumb, go right ahead, but as an attorney you know how much review goes into contracts, especially complex multi-million dollar contracts with all sorts of clauses and conditions. These things take time, especially when comparing competing contracts. There is a reason why Gaudreau is slow playing this. He wants to know exactly what money and conditions are on the table from other teams before he decides if the Flames are the fit for him. Just like Landeskog. Hopefully the Flames get a similar outcome as the Lansekog process.

Landeskog desperately wanted to stay with Colorado, but he also wanted to get paid.

Their offer was for AAV of $6M until the last moment.

He knew (or highly suspected) he could get a lot more in UFA, so when Colorado offered $7M, he grabbed it.

I suspect he would have been prepared to test the market at $6M, as it was so low.

Johnny is in a different situation, as they have (supposedly) offered 8 years at $9.5M, and most of us have little doubt they will go to at least $10M (and likley more?), so it's not like they are outside of the ballpark.

I believe if Johnny leaves it will not be over money, it will be because he's made the difficult decision to move back est to the US. I think that's what is going through his mind right now.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

https://coloradohockeynow.com/2021/0...ith-avalanche/

As was said above, you don’t have to actually go and talk to other teams to know the marketplace. There was never any sign Landeskog talked to other teams.

That is bang on. Landeskog knew he could get more money than he signed for. There would have been multiple bidders for him.

This is not like Zadorov, who would be much harder to predict. Who really knows what types of offers he might get?

[Mr.Coffee]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

Landeskog desperately wanted to stay with Colorado, but he also wanted to get paid.

Their offer was for AAV of $6M until the last moment.

He knew (or highly suspected) he could get a lot more in UFA, so when Colorado offered $7M, he grabbed it.

I suspect he would have been prepared to test the market at $6M, as it was so low.

Johnny is in a different situation, as they have (supposedly) offered 8 years at $9.5M, and most of us have little doubt they will go to at least $10M (and likley more?), so it's not like they are outside of the ballpark.

I believe if Johnny leaves it will not be over money, it will be because he's made the difficult decision to move back est to the US. I think that's what is going through his mind right now.

I’m not sure why you keep insinuating that this wouldn’t be over money. $8mm is a lot of money to anybody. Murray Edwards would leave over $8mm, you can bet your ass on that. $8mm isn’t just some amount to flippantly disregard in the decision making process and I’d bet you it’s probably pretty high on the priority list, actually.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

I’m not sure why you keep insinuating that this wouldn’t be over money. $8mm is a lot of money to anybody. Murray Edwards would leave over $8mm, you can bet your ass on that. $8mm isn’t just some amount to flippantly disregard in the decision making process and I’d bet you it’s probably pretty high on the priority list, actually.

He will be extremely hard pressed to make up the hypothetical $8M difference with another team, as I showed above.

[Mr.Coffee]

Not if the Flames don’t move off their 9.5 per he won’t.

And besides, what is enough to be “flippant” about? $3mm? $2mm?

Like, these are large numbers even for players making big money.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

Not if the Flames don’t move off their 9.5 per he won’t.

The Flames offered $9.5 million AAV over 8 years?

Is this substantiated?

[Mr.Coffee]

No, it is rumoured. But we are all just kind of shooting the #### with this discussion I thought.