Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I don't think everyone would agree with that.

And before this year, I doubt anyone would agree with it.

Now, I'm not so sure, Johnny was spectacular this year.

Pretty tough to argue against Panarin's 2020 season at least until this season. Hart nomination, Lindsay nomination, third in scoring, second in the league in +/-. Probably just slightly edges out Gaudreau's year (2nd in scoring, leading +/-, but no Hart or Lindsay nomination).

But that was after he signed.

In the four years leading up to the contract he had 320 points in 322 games, good for 8th in that time frame (Gaudreau happened to be 7th in that timeframe with 322 points).

Gaudreau's last four seasons have him with 321 points in 290 games, good for 10th in that timeframe. Panarin was more consistent in his scoring, roughly a year younger when signing but Gaudreau is coming off a career year and has been the clear cut best player on his line since his sophomore season, Panarin played second-fiddle to Kane in Chicago. Both are scoring wingers, not going to be confused with Selke nominees.

I'd say you'd be hard pressed to find players much closer in value between Gaudreau entering free agency in 2022 and Panarin entering free agency in 2019. Maybe the Sedins.

[Erick Estrada]

Dom Luszczyszyn from the Athletic lists him as the only franchise player available in free agency and his model predicts he will be able to live up to an $11 million deal as it projects him to be worth 2.9 wins a season in 2028. Clearly this is all predictive but it's not like the models are inflating expectations as for example he thinks Kadris fair value is only $6.5 million a season and I wouldn't be surprised if he gets more than that.

[Ryan Coke]

Originally Posted by powderjunkie

If the Flames base decisions based on what us neckbeards think then the franchise is doomed anyways

I’m sure the team doesn’t, but the fact his agent felt it was worth doing says something.

Maybe In a way how the Oilers like to leak things to soften up the fan base for larger contracts, trades, etc.

Public opinion does play a role, and Gaudreau’s agent was trying to manipulate the collective “us”.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Based on what?

Based on his age, position and lack of cap inflation for next 2 or 3 years.

No Covid lost revenue sure he gets $11

What team is better than the Flames and can offer $11 mil and not have to dump good players just to sign Johnny? Also not run into cap problems within a year with existing star players?

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Ryan Coke

I remember Lewis Gross hiring someone to try to boost Gaudreau’s value on here last time (which I found spectacularly distasteful). Makes me wonder if he would do the same this time, or maybe try to get an existing poster to fill the same role.

Gaudreauvertime? Was paid? I thought that poster was just pumping tires for free.

If they want to pay someone, I'm happy to take their money.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Bonded

Well he is definitely getting at least 10 unless he signs at a discount

Flames supposedly started 9.5. I'm gonna assume Gaudreau asks for 11. So 10.3 is just above the middle. That's $82.4M over 8 years. Other teams have to offer 11.77 over 7 to match that total.

[Roof-Daddy]

If the Flames sign Gaudreau I will be happy (obviously).

If it's for under $11 million AAV I will be ecstatic.

I was thinking it'll be $90 million total / 8 years

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Bonded

I'd take Kucherov any day over Gaudreau and probably Stone

Kucherov probably. Ovechkin still scores 50. Not sure how Marner's stats measure up all in. His counting stats are pretty comparable outside of this year.

[1qqaaz]

Originally Posted by Bonded

I'd take Kucherov any day over Gaudreau and probably Stone

Gaudreau is a lot more durable than Kucherov. They're the same age.
As they get older, injuries might become more of an issue.

[CF84]

I would be ecstatic with $9.5 x 8, happy with $10 x 8, and would stomach $10.5 x 8...$11 x 8 would really disappoint me, but I'd still be glad he chose to remain a Flame.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Flames supposedly started 9.5. I'm gonna assume Gaudreau asks for 11. So 10.3 is just above the middle. That's $82.4M over 8 years. Other teams have to offer 11.77 over 7 to match that total.

I'd expect Johnny to ask for $12.5. It no more ridiculous than the Flames offering $9.5M.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by CF84

I would be ecstatic with $9.5 x 8, happy with $10 x 8, and would stomach $10.5 x 8...$11 x 8 would really disappoint me, but I'd still be glad he chose to remain a Flame.

This for me all depends on how long the Covid repayment takes. If things get back to normal and that big cap increase due to tv revenues comes sooner than 3 years I can live with up to $10.5. But if it takes 3 years I just don’t see Lindholm and Tkachuk taking too much less. We can win with these guys at $17 combined. Double that and this team is in trouble

[Steve Macfarlane]

I'm not expecting any deal to be signed and delivered until Gaudreau's agent is able to talk to other teams without tampering coming into play.

Wrote about it here.

https://calgaryhockeynow.com/calgary...hnny-gaudreau/

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Steve Macfarlane

I'm not expecting any deal to be signed and delivered until Gaudreau's agent is able to talk to other teams without tampering coming into play.

Wrote about it here.

https://calgaryhockeynow.com/calgary...hnny-gaudreau/

The only way to do that is to wait until free agency opens and then they lose the possibility of an 8th year.

If he waits until then, IMO he has a destination (or more) in mind and is just hoping they offer comparable money so he can split.

If it was mainly about money he'd take the Flames offer, unless they are low balling him.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I'd expect Johnny to ask for $12.5. It no more ridiculous than the Flames offering $9.5M.

Not sure how the 3rd biggest contract for a winger in NHL history is ridiculous as an opener but OK.

[flambers]

Sure hope not, that type of contact if it were close to 12.5m should be a none starter. Flames would have lots of problems managing their cap.

He is 28, turning 29 in August. 8 years is risky for the Flames

First ~5 years would be fine, last 3 could be an issue.

I understand the players want long term etc.

[CF84]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I'd expect Johnny to ask for $12.5. It no more ridiculous than the Flames offering $9.5M.

McJohnny

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by flambers

Sure hope not, that type of contact if it were close to 12.5m should be a none starter. Flames would have lots of problems managing their cap.

He is 28, turning 29 in August. 8 years is risky for the Flames

First ~5 years would be fine, last 3 could be an issue.

I understand the players want long term etc.

First 4 years Johnny would be at the same cap hit as McDavid. No way we would compete with the Oilers move forward. Tkachuk would instantly ask for close to the same.

[1_Flames_Fan]

My thinking is if Johnny's camp comes back with a reasonable counter if there is indeed an offer on the table then he truly wants to sign with the Flames and the numbers can be worked out. If his team doesn't counter the offer, or just says we are going to wait and go UFA and see what's out there I'd say his chance of re-signing is very low and the team should move forward with other priorities, Chucky, Mang, Shilly, etc.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Not sure how the 3rd biggest contract for a winger in NHL history is ridiculous as an opener but OK.

So, he'll jump all over it?

Every year contracts get bigger and bigger.

He's the premium UFA available this year, and it's not really close.

He can ask for whatever he wants.

Calgary is highly motivated to keep him, they have publicly said so.

Comparables can largely be thrown out the window if Johnny wants to play hardball. Which is not certain of course.