Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Mr.Coffee

If I’m Gaudreau not a chance I’m taking 9.5 over 8. More like 10-10.25 over 8 for around $80-84MM and now we are talking. But, this is the Flames starting position so let’s see.

I'm curious why Calgary is just now starting the bidding, when a number of posters have indicated it was largely a done deal already agreed upon?

I have a hard time imagining that that's the most money Johnny will be offered.

Of course, we really have no idea if that was Calgary's offer, or if they actually have made one.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I'm curious why Calgary is just now starting the bidding, when a number of posters have indicated it was largely a done deal already agreed upon?

I have a hard time imagining that that's the most money Johnny will be offered.

Of course, we really have no idea if that was Calgary's offer, or if they actually have made one.

Clearly it was never a done deal. By all indications it just started so if by late next week no deal has been struck it's probably a bad sign. Going down to the wire doesn't mean he won't return to the Flames but the closer he gets to free agency the better the chance he decides to take a look at other offers.

[taxbuster]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I'm curious why Calgary is just now starting the bidding, when a number of posters have indicated it was largely a done deal already agreed upon?

I have a hard time imagining that that's the most money Johnny will be offered.

Of course, we really have no idea if that was Calgary's offer, or if they actually have made one.

The only supposedly "knowledgeable" person (AFAIK) that said it's a done deal was Craig Conroy. No?

[the_only_turek_fan]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

The tax issue is pretty moot unless one of the teams that would sign JG is in Fla, AZ or TX. The Fla teams are full, AZ is a shambles (and on a budget) and TX has cap issues of its own thanks to old guys with big contracts and a couple star players coming up.

Washington State and Tennessee also have no state income tax.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by taxbuster

The only supposedly "knowledgeable" person (AFAIK) that said it's a done deal was Craig Conroy. No?

I don't recall that, I just remember a number of posters saying not to worry, it was basically a done deal.

[Bingo]

I think whatever work was done before the season would have to be scrapped given the changing market, and his value bump from a career season.

I don't have any inside information good or bad.

But they could have been close to start the season but have to essentially start over now because of the value change.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by midniteowl

Exactly, even now if Tre trade Johnny's right for DeBrusk is crazy talk.

Do you not get the premise?

The Leafs had no chance of paying Hyman what he was going to get from Edmonton. In order to get the cap hit down the Oilers tried to make a deal with the leafs for them to do an 8 year deal with the promise he is immediately flipped to Edmonton. The Oilers wanted to send a 5th rounder the Leafs wanted a 2nd. The deal didn’t get done so Hyman signs for 7 years at a higher number.

In this scenario the Flames are told Johnny wants to go back east and some teams are lined up to get him. Debrusk has an active trade request in Boston and the Bruins do not have $10M to throw at Johnny. Johnny’s team could say they would entertain going to Boston or they take the Devils huge offer. The Flames can now lose Johnny for nothing or take back Debrusk by signing Johnny to the 8 year deal with the agreement they send him to the Bruins immediately.

This is very common in the NBA where their salary cap is far more complicated and cap space, salary matching and other variables come into play that are not as cut and dry as the NHL

Example: the Golden State Warriors turned a UFA to be Kevin Durant into a double sign and trade with Brooklyn for DeAngelo Russell, who they later flipped to Minnesota for Andrew Wiggins and a lightly protected 1st that turned into the 7th overall pick. Literally turned a departing UFA into an all-star and lotto pick. It won’t happen in hockey like that but I could see teams paying up to enter the UFA mix and get someone on an 8 year deal while the other team recoups some value

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by the_only_turek_fan

Washington State and Tennessee also have no state income tax.

I plumb forgot Nashville. They have capacity though they don’t strike me as a bidder just the way their team is built.

Had no idea WA had no tax. But I doubt the Kraken are in the market.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

I plumb forgot Nashville. They have capacity though they don’t strike me as a bidder just the way their team is built.

Had no idea WA had no tax. But I doubt the Kraken are in the market.

Lebrun just tweeted the Kraken may have interest

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

Lebrun just tweeted the Kraken may have interest

Tire kicking. They’d have to overpay by a lot.

[FlamesAddiction]

It's not exactly news. If Gaudreau hits the market, every team with cap space will have interest, and also a handful that don't. Getting cap space after the fact is easy. You just trade dead weight to the Coyotes and throw in a draft pick or prospect.

[GS Skier]

Originally Posted by taxbuster

The only supposedly "knowledgeable" person (AFAIK) that said it's a done deal was Craig Conroy. No?

Don't forget when Gaudreau was in the NCAA and so many hockey genius' said he wouldn't sign and would go free agent. Funny but Conroy was his day to day contact back then and it worked out alright. Conroy may indeed know Gaudreaus thinking better than any other team admin guy.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

So, you think if Johnny and the Bruins come to Treliving and say they've negotiated a sign and trade, and the Flames will get Debrusk as payment for the brokering of that deal, that Treliving should screw Johnny/Bruins by simply keeping him?

I am without speech. Treliving and the Flames would lose all credibility.

In fact, its likely that Treliving could not legally do such a thing, as it would go against the parameters of the agreed deal.

And the payment of Debrusk for doing this deal is so much more than what the Flames should reasonably expect. Because the alternative is zero.

It doesn't matter because sign and trades do not happen in the NHL. It doesn't matter if it brings an asset in or not, good luck selling that to the general public. Tre's head would roll. Why would Boston even give up an asset like DeBrusk for one extra year? They wouldn't. Not one part of the idea is realistic.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

It doesn't matter because sign and trades do not happen in the NHL. It doesn't matter if it brings an asset in or not, good luck selling that to the general public. Tre's head would roll. Why would Boston even give up an asset like DeBrusk for one extra year? They wouldn't. Not one part of the idea is realistic.

The only really unrealistic part of this whole sub thread was your statement that Treliving should orchestrate a sign and trade but reneg on the trade part to trick Johnny.

It was a hypothetical situation. If Johnny wasn’t going to sign with Calgary, Treliving’s head would not roll if he managed to get an asset like DeBrusk for him, contrary to what you said.

You should quit while you are behind, instead of doubling down.

[GioforPM]

For another team to get the 8 does it have t be a sign and trade or can they just trade for signing rights (like when Calgary traded for Jaybo’s and then signed him the next day).

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

So, again ignoring Calgary's 8 year signing ability, I would say "most" comparable but not entirely "fair". As good as Panarin was, he wasn't coming off a year Gaudreau had. Did everyone offering Panarin that 12.5M contract assume on a good team he would be a 110 point player like he almost instantly become? He was crushing it on a team without much firepower but he was still only 18th in scoring the off-season he signed (87 points in 79 games) I think he, somewhat and somehow, exceeded expectations immediately. Gaudreau on the other hand is a 110 point player already finishing tied for second.

But if there were four teams at least offering the 18th leading scorer winger Panarin 11.5M+ when the cap was 81.5M, why would there be no team offering Gaudreau, the second leading scorer, 11.5M+ when the cap is higher? Much like Panarin, I don't expect Gaudreau to sign with the team that simply offers him the highest AAV, but if he did, I would expect that to be at least 12M.

Panarin's previous 2 and previous 3 years were better than Johnny's, as well as his career playoff numbers.

Johnny turns 29 in August. Panarain [allegedly] turned 28 in the October he signed his deal.

And then there is the UFA market context. Panarin's competition was:

Pavelski
Duchene*
Anders Lee*
Zuccarello

Bobrovsky
Tyler Myers

*Both Duchene and Lee signed 7 year deals on July 1 with their existing teams. Curious how those played out - was 8 yrs was ever on the table? Interesting that it's both old schools GMs (Poile and Lou) - did they give the players a few hours to explore UFA before their best deal came off the table?

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

For another team to get the 8 does it have t be a sign and trade or can they just trade for signing rights (like when Calgary traded for Jaybo’s and then signed him the next day).

The player has to be with the team by the trade deadline to sign 8 years is my understanding.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

That is false. The player has to be with the team by the trade deadline to sign 8 years is my understanding.

Not sure what’s false. I just asked the question, which you kindly answered.

[dissentowner]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

The only really unrealistic part of this whole sub thread was your statement that Treliving should orchestrate a sign and trade but reneg on the trade part to trick Johnny.

It was a hypothetical situation. If Johnny wasn’t going to sign with Calgary, Treliving’s head would not roll if he managed to get an asset like DeBrusk for him, contrary to what you said.

You should quit while you are behind, instead of doubling down.

Yes, him trading the biggest star in Calgary would go over so well. Continue with your out to lunch theories though. When have you seen an actual sign and trade in the NHL, let alone a star player? Sit down and shut up.

[Vinny01]

Originally Posted by dissentowner

It doesn't matter because sign and trades do not happen in the NHL. It doesn't matter if it brings an asset in or not, good luck selling that to the general public. Tre's head would roll. Why would Boston even give up an asset like DeBrusk for one extra year? They wouldn't. Not one part of the idea is realistic.

It is a creative way for a team with limited cap flexibility add a star free agent at a reduced cap number for the max term and for the team losing him for nothing to get something back. In this scenario Johnny is happy he gets to go to the Eastern team of his choice, Boston adds a new superstar to their team they would have a tough time signing otherwise, and Calgary salvaged something for a player that is prepared to walk for nothing.

No chance Treliving’s head rolls if this went down. It is more realistic than you are willing to admit.