Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[8sPOT]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

I really wonder how much not having a new arena to look forward to is going to factor into Johnny and Matty's decisions.

I can't help but think this plays some part as well. Especially when they travel around to every other building throughout the season.

It's certainly a con on their pros and cons list at the very least.

[activeStick]

Originally Posted by Vinny01

I think the free agent status is the reason Gaudreau is the more critical piece to retain long term. If Chucky decides he doesn’t want to stay or the Flames can’t afford him he becomes a great trade chip for the team where they can likely get good picks, prospects or players in return. With Johnny if he leaves the team is left with nothing (maybe a late pick for his negotiating rights).

Both are such key pieces but what kind of sucks just like the Iginla era we are building a team where wingers are the top end of the franchise and not centers or Dmen

This is the key IMO

[OptimalTates]

I think the Flames need to come to terms that this year was their shot and they missed it. It's the cap era, to win you need to get more value out of your players than they are "worth."

Monahan injury, Markstrom ####ting the bed, just not being a top tier contender built around generational talents, lots of reason to blame why it wasn't their year, but what gave them a chance this year was Gaudreau and Tkachuk making less than 14M while being 20M+ players while Mangiapane and Kylington emerged on baby contracts. They exceeded the cost "penalties" of Lucic and Monahan.

All of the remaining teams you can see where they are paying players much less than they are "worth."

MacKinnon and Kadri made less than 11M combined, they were on pace pro-rated for for 111 and 100 points respectively, easily 10M in "savings" from them alone. Avalanche still have MacKinnon making peanuts and Byram on ELC so they have at least another year.

New York's third line is filled with players on ELC or baby contracts. But Zibanejad and Fox have a combined cap hit of 6M, next year they jump up to 18M combined (and that's including some RFA years for Fox).

Oilers had Kane, Yammato, Nurse, Bouchard, and Puljujärvi making peanuts compared to what they are "worth" and will be making next year (except Bouchard will still be on ELC for one year). Then they still have Draisaitl making 8.5M when he's worth so much more, and I would even argue McDavid is worth more than the 12.5M.

Tampa gets the low-tax, competitive team, nice place to live bonus so even their UFA contracts are below fair-market-value like Kucherov's but in particular Point was making 3M less than his contract that kicks in next season, Hedman and Stamkos nearing the end of their contracts are also making much less than their worth, same with Sergachev.

You can get these cap-savings on players who are on ELCs, breakout after their contracts are signed (and/or have bridge deals with RFA years lowering AAV) or have had long enough contracts that the inflation has lowered them below the players "worth".

But pretty much every Stanley Cup team you can see some pretty obvious savings with most recently being the Kucherov LTIR play. The Capitals were paying Backstrom, Carlson and Wilson 12.5M, they are now making 22.4M. Penguins had Guentzel and Murray making nothing but also Crosby and Malkin were below fair value price. Kane and Toews last win was the last year of the 6M contracts before jumping to 10M, and their first was last year on the ELC contracts. Kings had Kopitar, Doughty and Brown (17M when they won, 27M today) but also Gaborik on a 50% retained transaction. Quick making nothing on their first win.

So where do the Flames get these "savings" from in the next couple years should Tkachuk and Gaudreau sign at reasonable contracts? It's pretty much Lindholm for current contracts. For ELC's the most likely one to exceed his cap-hit by a significant value (but not likely to actually do it) is Wolf but unlike pulling a Binnington where the Blues had an obvious weakness in goal, the Flames have Markstrom who is making 6M and Vezina candidate, so Wolf would have to overshoot that 6M while Markstrom is on the team anyways.

The bargain bin UFA players like Zadorov and Gudbrunson are great when they succeed but you can't rely on making much savings on those type of players.

I fear giving Gaudreau and Tkachuk the contracts they deserve will put the Flames squarely into the Blackhawks territory (post 10M contracts for Toews and Kane). Since then they haven't won a playoff series, and if not for the shutdown they would have missed the playoffs 5 years in a row despite the emergence of Debrincat and the free signing of Panarin.

[Burning Beard]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

Oilers had Kane, Yammato, Nurse, Bouchard, and Puljujärvi making peanuts compared to what they are "worth" and will be making next year (except Bouchard will still be on ELC for one year). Then they still have Draisaitl making 8.5M when he's worth so much more, and I would even argue McDavid is worth more than the 12.5M..

Honestly what is Nurse worth? Watching him last night I'd say he isn't even worth what he is getting now before his ridiculous raise.

[BlindMilwaukee]

That's a good point Burning Beard, if Nurse was paid what any of our top 6 Dmen are currently paid I honestly don't think I'd take Nurse over any of them.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by Burning Beard

Honestly what is Nurse worth? Watching him last night I'd say he isn't even worth what he is getting now before his ridiculous raise.

Sure, but they are certainly better off paying him 5.6M than 9.2M next year. And if their number one defenseman isn't even worth 5.6M but they made the top four playing him 22 minute a night, then Draisaitl and McDavid are worth that much more.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

I fear giving Gaudreau and Tkachuk the contracts they deserve will put the Flames squarely into the Blackhawks territory (post 10M contracts for Toews and Kane). Since then they haven't won a playoff series, and if not for the shutdown they would have missed the playoffs 5 years in a row despite the emergence of Debrincat and the free signing of Panarin.

TBF, the cap is $11M higher than when the Hawks made those signings. It's more a question cap% on contracts.

[Scroopy Noopers]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

Sure, but they are certainly better off paying him 5.6M than 9.2M next year. And if their number one defenseman isn't even worth 5.6M but they made the top four playing him 22 minute a night, then Draisaitl and McDavid are worth that much more.

Yes, everyone knows it’s on the backs of those two.

[OptimalTates]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

TBF, the cap is $11M higher than when the Hawks made those signings. It's more a question cap% on contracts.

Yes, and even with the cap raising the Hawks couldn't (so far) put together a competitive team with Toews and Kane making "fair value".

The Hawks first (recent) cup win was nearing on unfair. It's not a huge surprise they swept the western conference champs in retrospect. Kane and Toews on ELC, Hossa on a cap circumvention contract, Keith making 1.5M.

Outside of having to sign most of their core to much higher contracts, there was the qualifying offer debacle, so a lot of changes, role players making too much due to the Cup win, it took a bit to find their footing and they weren't getting that bang for their buck nearly as much.

But by the time they won their next Cup, Toews and Kane were still "undervalued" due to their contracts being RFA years (much like Gaudreau and Tkachuk's this year) as was Seabrook. But they also had Crawford and Brickell making league minimum, Hossa and Keith on cap circumvention contracts, there was a lot of very clear value to be seen.

By the third Cup, because of the cap increase, because of rules changing circumvention rules, Toews, Kane and Keith were 10M+ players each with a cap hit of 18M combined, an easy 10M in "savings". Hossa continued to circumvent the cap while Saad was on an ELC, Richards was on a one-year show me contract. There was huge savings there which allowed them to fill out the team with more than just tweeners.

Once Toews and Kane made 10M being 10M players, Keith declined, Hossa aged, there was no longer extra value there and they become decidedly mediocre.

If Gaudreau signs at 'fair value' we shouldn't expect the Flames to ever get any extra value out of the contract, and likely less and less as he ages. Tkachuk's 'fair value' contract would also not have much extra value. One RFA year (that's already going to be like 9M) isn't going to get the cap much lower than what he's worth, but you may see some value at the end of the contract if Tkachuk doesn't regress and the cap does go up. It's just also in having them, you hurt yourself from getting extra value from ELC players as the liklihood of getting a player on an ELC who drastically outperforms his cap hit is lower and lower as you move down the draft.

[GioforPM]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1532783281699098624

[Ashasx]

Originally Posted by OptimalTates

Yes, and even with the cap raising the Hawks couldn't (so far) put together a competitive team with Toews and Kane making "fair value".

The Hawks first (recent) cup win was nearing on unfair. It's not a huge surprise they swept the western conference champs in retrospect. Kane and Toews on ELC, Hossa on a cap circumvention contract, Keith making 1.5M.

Outside of having to sign most of their core to much higher contracts, there was the qualifying offer debacle, so a lot of changes, role players making too much due to the Cup win, it took a bit to find their footing and they weren't getting that bang for their buck nearly as much.

But by the time they won their next Cup, Toews and Kane were still "undervalued" due to their contracts being RFA years (much like Gaudreau and Tkachuk's this year) as was Seabrook. But they also had Crawford and Brickell making league minimum, Hossa and Keith on cap circumvention contracts, there was a lot of very clear value to be seen.

By the third Cup, because of the cap increase, because of rules changing circumvention rules, Toews, Kane and Keith were 10M+ players each with a cap hit of 18M combined, an easy 10M in "savings". Hossa continued to circumvent the cap while Saad was on an ELC, Richards was on a one-year show me contract. There was huge savings there which allowed them to fill out the team with more than just tweeners.

Once Toews and Kane made 10M being 10M players, Keith declined, Hossa aged, there was no longer extra value there and they become decidedly mediocre.

If Gaudreau signs at 'fair value' we shouldn't expect the Flames to ever get any extra value out of the contract, and likely less and less as he ages. Tkachuk's 'fair value' contract would also not have much extra value. One RFA year (that's already going to be like 9M) isn't going to get the cap much lower than what he's worth, but you may see some value at the end of the contract if Tkachuk doesn't regress and the cap does go up. It's just also in having them, you hurt yourself from getting extra value from ELC players as the liklihood of getting a player on an ELC who drastically outperforms his cap hit is lower and lower as you move down the draft.

Ultimately this situation is why I would have preferred the Flames go max year on Tkachuk and Gaudreau's second contracts.

Pay players in their prime years. Don't get stuck with a retirement contract.

Of course, it takes two parties to sign a contract. Still, my preference is to pay for prime years and maximize the term.

[powderjunkie]

Originally Posted by Ashasx

Ultimately this situation is why I would have preferred the Flames go max year on Tkachuk and Gaudreau's second contracts.

Pay players in their prime years. Don't get stuck with a retirement contract.

Of course, it takes two parties to sign a contract. Still, my preference is to pay for prime years and maximize the term.

Easy to say that now, but look how much we've struggled to compete with them under FMV.

You'd also need a crystal ball to not have gone 8 years with Monahan.

On the other hand, a tighter cap situation might have precluded things like the Neal signing...but they'd probably preclude Tanev/Markstrom/etc, too.

[wired]

Originally Posted by BlindMilwaukee

That's a good point Burning Beard, if Nurse was paid what any of our top 6 Dmen are currently paid I honestly don't think I'd take Nurse over any of them.

Nurse would not even crack the Flames roster. He is an average d man at best. Oilers had to overpay to get a player to stay.

[Hackey]

If the Flames are able to re-sign Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Mangiapane, I see cap issues trying to fill out the rest of the roster. Hanifin and Lindholm are gonna need more money soon as well. Just doesn't seem like an elite core to sink a huge percentage of the cap into. They will really need to rely on prospects meeting/exceeding expectation and hope they are able to compete with the elite teams with really strong depth and team play.

[Roof-Daddy]

Originally Posted by Hackey

If the Flames are able to re-sign Gaudreau, Tkachuk, Mangiapane, I see cap issues trying to fill out the rest of the roster. Hanifin and Lindholm are gonna need more money soon as well. Just doesn't seem like an elite core to sink a huge percentage of the cap into. They will really need to rely on prospects meeting/exceeding expectation and hope they are able to compete with the elite teams with really strong depth and team play.

Yeah it's a tough deal, and not to mention, IMO their center depth still isn't high end enough to be truly elite.

Lindholm is a star but Monahan will never be the same and Backlund isn't getting any younger.

Even with a perfect off season, Sutter will have to continue to squeeze every last drop of blood out of that stone IMO

[kevman]

Am I the only one that thought the forum being down was caused by a Gaudreau or Tkachuk signing?

[home_sweet_dome]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

Yeah it's a tough deal, and not to mention, IMO their center depth still isn't high end enough to be truly elite.

Lindholm is a star but Monahan will never be the same and Backlund isn't getting any younger.

Even with a perfect off season, Sutter will have to continue to squeeze every last drop of blood out of that stone IMO

Which is why it makes so much more sense to try to sign Johnny and trade Tkachuk, preferably for a younger cost controlled C or D.

[Hockey_Ninja]

Originally Posted by kevman

Am I the only one that thought the forum being down was caused by a Gaudreau or Tkachuk signing?

Lol nah. I noticed a delay whenever I would post something. I think it had to do with that

[Flamesfan05]

Originally Posted by BlindMilwaukee

That's a good point Burning Beard, if Nurse was paid what any of our top 6 Dmen are currently paid I honestly don't think I'd take Nurse over any of them.

I would take him for the 750K over Kylington, 2M over Gud and 3.75 over zadorov

The guy sucks right now but he is an NHL dman. He is just overpaid

[Moneyhands23]

I think if Johnny isn't signed next week then we are not going to be haply Flames fans.