[PGT] Flames lose in OT: Season Over

[Vinny01]

I think the fact the Oilers tied game 1 6-6 was very concerning. When they let game 2 slip away it really started to seem like things could take a turn for the worse and it was confirmed in game 3. When they tied it in game 4 there was a strong feeling they were taking it back but couldn’t close.

Up 2-0 last night it felt good and even 4-3 it was solid but once that Coleman goal was overturned it really felt like it was over. Not that different from the Colorado series where the Flames could have won 2 of the games they lost (in this series it could have been 3 of the games they lost).

Like 2019 this team appeared to be on the verge of contention but crashed back down to earth with 2 bubble years 1 where they made it and 1 where they missed before getting back to being a top team.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Infinit47

They literally try to quantify all of that in determining high danger, medium danger and low danger scoring chances. They apply the same expected save results and compare against the actual outcome.

If you look at goalies who've played 8 games or more Markstrom had the lowest save percentage in both low and high danger scoring chances compared to expected. Over 5 games Markstrom was objectively worse than Mike Smith unless you are of the opinion that those models are completely made up.

Markstrom had an .852 save percentage for God's sake. He was downright terrible. Not saying other people weren't terrible too, but that doesn't mean Markstrom wasn't putrid.

The goalie apologizing in Calgary is next level. I guess that's what happens when you haven't had a good goalie in like 15 years.

My understanding is that high medium and low danger chances all are based on where the shot comes from, and not factors like deflections, crazy bounces to an open man, 2 on 1s, breakaways, etc. and that all bears on save % as well, of course. I stand to be corrected on how they calculate but I don't think I'm wrong there.

Over 5 games Markstrom made more tough saves than Smith IMO. He had some bad ones, mostly game 1 and a major league puckhandling gaffe in game 4 (the exact same as Smith's except Coleman was at a worse angle than RNH).

[dino7c]

Flames would have won the series with .900 goaltending

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by dino7c

Flames would have won the series with .900 goaltending

Flames would also have won with a higher shooting percentage. Or power play percentage. Or PK percentage. Or a couple fewer PKs or more power plays.

[Infinit47]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

Markstrom wasn't good enough in the series. Period.
But that doesn't mean he didn't have a great season and isn't a good #1 going forward.

As much as you want to yell at people for goalie apologizing, you have had a weird thing against Markstrom all season. I get you are feeling that the playoff performance validates that. But i don't see it that way.

He's a good #1 goalie. I rank him in the 5-10 range in the league.

I fully acknowledged in this thread, and as the season went on that Markstrom has a great season and great round 1.

But he has also had a bad season and terrible series for the Flames. He has shown up for half his time in Calgary.

He was terrible in this series and anyone saying we wouldn't still be playing with better goaltending is kidding themselves. People deflect by pointing to his Vezina nomination, and bad Mike Smith goals. But at the end of the day I don't believe he gave the Flames a chance in this series.

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

Flames would also have won with a higher shooting percentage. Or power play percentage. Or PK percentage. Or a couple fewer PKs or more power plays.

Maybe but .900 goaltending isn't asking much.

Bad Mike Smith goals were expected, every team would pick Markstrom before...in fact the Oilers did

[Infinit47]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

My understanding is that high medium and low danger chances all are based on where the shot comes from, and not factors like deflections, crazy bounces to an open man, 2 on 1s, breakaways, etc. and that all bears on save % as well, of course. I stand to be corrected on how they calculate but I don't think I'm wrong there.

Over 5 games Markstrom made more tough saves than Smith IMO. He had some bad ones, mostly game 1 and a major league puckhandling gaffe in game 4 (the exact same as Smith's except Coleman was at a worse angle than RNH).

Expected goals for and expected save percentage are way more complex than that. Here is what money puck considers:

Shot Distance From Net
Time Since Last Game Event
Shot Type (Slap, Wrist, Backhand, etc)
Speed From Previous Event
Shot Angle
East-West Location on Ice of Last Event Before the Shot
If Rebound, difference in shot angle divided by time since last shot
Last Event That Happened Before the Shot (Faceoff, Hit, etc)
Other team’s # of skaters on ice
East-West Location on Ice of Shot
Man Advantage Situation
Time since current Powerplay started
Distance From Previous Event
North-South Location on Ice of Shot
Shooting on Empty Net

Markstrom was bad, and significantly worse than Smith.

[dino7c]

Coleman found out about league bias the hard way this season....2 game suspension for a charge with no strides and this goal. Tampa comes out on the right side of both IMO

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Infinit47

Expected goals for and expected save percentage are way more complex than that. Here is what money puck considers:

Shot Distance From Net
Time Since Last Game Event
Shot Type (Slap, Wrist, Backhand, etc)
Speed From Previous Event
Shot Angle
East-West Location on Ice of Last Event Before the Shot
If Rebound, difference in shot angle divided by time since last shot
Last Event That Happened Before the Shot (Faceoff, Hit, etc)
Other team’s # of skaters on ice
East-West Location on Ice of Shot
Man Advantage Situation
Time since current Powerplay started
Distance From Previous Event
North-South Location on Ice of Shot
Shooting on Empty Net

Markstrom was bad, and significantly worse than Smith.

And how do those translate into numbers? Pretty difficult over 5 games IMO.

[Infinit47]

Originally Posted by GioforPM

And how do those translate into numbers? Pretty difficult over 5 games IMO.

It translates into Markstrom giving up like 7 goals more than he should have vs Smith giving up like an additional 2.

5 goal swing in a 5 game series.

If Markstrom matches Smith we are still playing.

Although Smith had a goal called back that should clearly have counted, so there is that.

[Flames0910]

Everyone looking to blame the D but IDK... yes they got outplayed but look at what they had to face. Sometimes you gotta give credit to the other team, even when it's the Oilers. McDavid elevated his game to the point where the entire team had to be aware of him at all times (course he also had some help from the stripes). And when the Flames did manage to neutralize his scoring opportunities it created room for the other schmucks on his line.

Tanev returned too late but was a warrior.
Kylington was playing his first playoffs without his season-long partner.
Hanifin and Anderson did OK in their own end but got too aggressive on the attack.
Zadorov and Gudbranson were scared to hit because of all the penalties.

Plus they were all on edge because if you even looked at an Oilers player the wrong way this year the refs were sending players to the box.

Losing 4-1 stinks but they were close games tied in the third period. We'd probably be going back to Edmonton tomorrow if it weren't for Toronto stepping in to steal the win.

[Kovaz]

Originally Posted by Infinit47

It translates into Markstrom giving up like 7 goals more than he should have vs Smith giving up like an additional 2.

5 goal swing in a 5 game series.

If Markstrom matches Smith we are still playing.

Although Smith had a goal called back that should clearly have counted, so there is that.

There's no such thing as a perfectly accurate model. They're based on long-term averages and there's a lot of noise within each bucket. Over a long enough sample, you expect it to average out, but in short samples it's very easy to have more dangerous-than-average chances within each bucket.



McDavid's OT goal was only worth 0.03 expected goals, according to Moneypuck. So based on that, we could give up this shot 30 times and only expect 1 goal against.


I don't know about you, but if I had to be money on that I'd expect a lot more than 1 goal even if we had Dominik Hasek in net.

[Burning Beard]

Zadorov had 3 broken ribs and was still playing. This team was tough.

[Rising_Oil_Prices]

I know what it’s like to lose, and as an oilers fan, so I feel your guys disappointment. You played a hard series and didn’t get many breaks, the oilers had many breaks, including that disallowed goal. Like Sutter said, be proud of your team, they had a great regular season and finally won a playoff series. This wasn’t supposed to be their year, so those are the things I would rest on about this season.

I have reserved high hopes for the oilers, we’ll see how they play vs the avs or blues. I make no predictions on that series but I am excited to see it get going.

[Northendzone]

Originally Posted by Young Guns

I think it was Gaudreau. The puck was 2' away from him and instead of grabbing the puck and risking a little body contact he turns the other way to cover the guy on the blueline. Leaving the dirty work for someone else. If Johnny took 2 strides toward the puck instead of backing away from a charging Draisaitl the goal never happens. Simply not willing to sacrifice his body to win a game.

He is great in the regular season and not sure where the Flames would be without him. But you can not win in the playoffs when your best player is not willing to lay it all on the line.

yikes, i watched the replay again and you are right. i think johnny should ahve went right at drai, or at least stayed between the puck and the net, instead his opted to go over top of drai trying to pick a pass to the d.......

oh well, this play was simply one of many defensive gaffs the flames made in this series.

[Roof-Daddy]

The Flames would have won if....

They should paint that on the roof of the Saddledome.

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Infinit47

It translates into Markstrom giving up like 7 goals more than he should have vs Smith giving up like an additional 2.

5 goal swing in a 5 game series.

If Markstrom matches Smith we are still playing.

Although Smith had a goal called back that should clearly have counted, so there is that.

Thanks for the glib non-answer.

[Roof-Daddy]

This was a really good hockey team, and they had a really good season.

But damn them for getting outplayed/outcoached/outgoaltended or whatever you want to blame it on, by our biggest rivals on the biggest stage.

Feels like the worst possible way to end it. Just gross.

We make fun of that organization non-stop (and for good reason) and they absolutely steam rolled the Flames.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Roof-Daddy

This was a really good hockey team, and they had a really good season.

But damn them for getting outplayed/outcoached/outgoaltended or whatever you want to blame it on, by our biggest rivals on the biggest stage.

Feels like the worst possible way to end it. Just gross.

We make fun of that organization non-stop (and for good reason) and they absolutely steam rolled the Flames.

This is all that matters in the end.

The prideful organization/fans that mocked the Oilers for rebuilding through the top of the draft just got smoked by the Oilers because they built through the top of the draft. I remember how smug Feaster/Burke/Treliving were during STH sessions about how Edmonton was building their team...well, here we are.

Pride comes before the fall, and this organization has fallen and it has proven it is not championship quality.

[GioforPM]

It's very odd. All year long the Flames were resilient, and good at holding leads. All year long the key to the Oilers was to get up on them and they'd chase the game. Calgary was too stubborn or too dumb to play conservatively when up by 2 goals. Or even 3. I mean, who keeps on giving up odd man rushes when defending a lead against a team that loves transition rush attacks. Why all the pucks turned over up high? I don't believe for a second that's Sutter's game plan. It's a bunch of players, both forwards and D, making bad bad decisions all over the ice. Bad pinches, bad pass decisions, and poor urgency when the puck was up for grabs. Hat tip to the sucky Oilers for finding a gear in their game I guess.

Go Avs Go.