[Signing] Flames sign Jacob Markstrom. (6 yrs, $6mil AAV)

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Even in round 2 Markstrom has been a part of the problem...but he isn't the only problem.

Well exactly. The high danger chances against has been a big problem. But the other big problem is the offense completely drying up since being up 3-1 in game 2. In almost 8 periods, the Flames have scored just 3 goals (not counting the Mike Smith freebie from 1000 feet away). One of the Flames' big strengths this year has been timely scoring... they aren't getting it this series.

[Hot_Flatus]

Originally Posted by Inferno

Both him and Oettinger were good in round 1. He won one more game which is what mattered. Oettinger was just busier so he looked more impressive.

Expecting more from him this series is one thing. Trying to lump in the last series where he averaged what? a goal and a half? is another.

Yes, such is the life of the typical angry Flames fans out there. When in doubt pin it all on the goalie.

Let's remember this guy is a Vezina finalist who isn't getting any quality support from the team in front of him this series. He's made a few gaffes but the skaters have been far worse leading to many breakdowns that are unacceptable of a division winning team.

[BoLevi]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Yeah based on the goaltending that Dallas was getting in the first round you would expect they would win that series in 5 or 6 games.

Markstrom (and the team around him) were good enough to overcome what was a legendary performance from Oettinger.

Even in round 2 Markstrom has been a part of the problem...but he isn't the only problem.

The .850 save percentage, and -8.3 GSAA are bad from Markstrom, but the Flames are also giving up way too much quality.

Flames are allowing 9.5 High Danger Shots against per 60 (2nd worst in the 2nd round behind only Florida) and Markstrom has a .710 high danger save percentage.

It's the combination of those two things killing the Flames. That has resulted in 11 High Danger Goals against in round two, The next closest team Florida have given up 7.

Flames are giving up too much high danger, Markstrom isn't making enough of the high danger saves, and that's the difference in the series right now.

Flames lead Low Danger Goals 2-1
Flames lead Medium Danger Goals 8-7
Flames are getting pummeled in High Danger Goals 11-5

33 High Danger Shots For, 5 High Danger Goals For, Oilers have a .849 High Danger Save Percentage. (Smith has an .841 the last two regular seasons...so this tracks)

38 High Danger Shots Against, 11 High Danger Goals Against, Flames have a .711 High Danger Save Percentage. (Markstrom has a .829 the last two regular seasons, so below average for him).

That's the difference. It's been a pretty even series overall, and really it should be 2-2. Flames deserved Game 1, Oiler deserved Game 3, probably should have split 2 and 4. Instead Oilers have won both of the toss ups because they've gotten more big saves when it's mattered.

Over the last two regular seasons as a Flame Markstrom has a .829 save percentage on high danger chances and we need him at that level. If he was saving high Danger chances at that same clip it would have meant 4 fewer Goals against in the series (7 instead of 11). And it would be 15-15 in overall goals for / against in the series (excluding empty net). It's the difference so far.

Great post. Another way to say it: every once in a while you need your goalie to steal one.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by BoLevi

someone pointed out in another thread that the only way to actually win a cup is to get a Top3 pick. There's been once exception in the last 13 years, and that team had a Top4 pick.

So it depends on what you want as a team.

Isn’t there a stat that the top 3 since 2011 have 0 combined cups too?

[BoLevi]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Isn’t there a stat that the top 3 since 2011 have 0 combined cups too?

What do you mean?

[habernac]

Exhausting Markstrom from playing him too much down the stretch is hardly Markstrom's fault.

[SuperMatt18]

Originally Posted by BoLevi

What do you mean?

2010: Hall, Seguin, Gudbranson
2011: RNH, Landeskog, Huberdeau
2012: Yakupov, Murray, Galchenyuk
2013: Mackinnon, Barkov, Drouin
2014: Ekblad, Reinhart, Draisaitl
2015: McDavid, Eichel, Strome
2016: Matthews, Laine, Dubois
2017: Hischier, Patrick, Heiskanen
2018: Dahlin, Svechnikov, Kotkaniemi
2019: Hughes, Kaako, Dach
2020: Lafrenier, Byfield, Stutzle

A single cup from that group so far. Seguin won it as a rookie, only played half the playoff games.

Now that could very well change this year if Colorado, Edmonton, Carolina, or New York wins.

But really it's more about drafting well over a long period of time, no matter where you draft.

Early picks help with that, but teams like Chicago, LA, Pittsburgh, Tampa had success because of their strong early picks, but really it was finding late round gems to add to the core that won them the cups.

[Erick Estrada]

Originally Posted by Hot_Flatus

Yes, such is the life of the typical angry Flames fans out there. When in doubt pin it all on the goalie.

Let's remember this guy is a Vezina finalist who isn't getting any quality support from the team in front of him this series. He's made a few gaffes but the skaters have been far worse leading to many breakdowns that are unacceptable of a division winning team.

If you watched this series from afar you would probably be critical of Markstrom in this series. He's not been that good and the statistics back that up. In an important game three in this series the Flames were down 0-3 on only 9 shots and that's a sign that goaltending isn't up to snuff. I mean Smith was laughed out of the dome in game one for letting in 3 goals on 10 shots so let's not get too hypocritical here. I don't think Markstrom has anywhere to hide in this series as he's not been good enough. He's not the only player that's not been good enough but he plays the one position that when you are not good it hurts the team more than any other.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

2010: Hall, Seguin, Gudbranson
2011: RNH, Landeskog, Huberdeau
2012: Yakupov, Murray, Galchenyuk
2013: Mackinnon, Barkov, Drouin
2014: Ekblad, Reinhart, Draisaitl
2015: McDavid, Eichel, Strome
2016: Matthews, Laine, Dubois
2017: Hischier, Patrick, Heiskanen
2018: Dahlin, Svechnikov, Kotkaniemi
2019: Hughes, Kaako, Dach
2020: Lafrenier, Byfield, Stutzle

A single cup from that group so far. Seguin won it as a rookie, only played half the playoff games.

Now that could very well change this year if Colorado or Edmonton wins.

But really it's more about drafting well over a long period of time, no matter where you draft.

Early picks help with that, but teams like Chicago, LA, Pittsburgh had success because of their strong early picks, as well as finding late round gems.

Tanking is not the solution. And really it only worked for Chicago and Pittsburgh.

It’s only a good option if presented to you. Like Gaudreau walks via UFA sure let’s do it. He resigns it won’t happen

But this stat shows the rebuild get first overall and have a dynasty model is more a 2005 to 2011 thing. 2nd lockout made it more difficult to accomplish

Tampa wins the cup again and and your looking a 19 year old seguin who was a healthy scratch/4th liner in that playoffs as the only top 3 pick since 2010 to win a cup

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

2010: Hall, Seguin, Gudbranson
2011: RNH, Landeskog, Huberdeau
2012: Yakupov, Murray, Galchenyuk
2013: Mackinnon, Barkov, Drouin
2014: Ekblad, Reinhart, Draisaitl
2015: McDavid, Eichel, Strome
2016: Matthews, Laine, Dubois
2017: Hischier, Patrick, Heiskanen
2018: Dahlin, Svechnikov, Kotkaniemi
2019: Hughes, Kaako, Dach
2020: Lafrenier, Byfield, Stutzle

A single cup from that group so far. Seguin won it as a rookie, only played half the playoff games.

Now that could very well change this year if Colorado, Edmonton, or New York wins.

But really it's more about drafting well over a long period of time, no matter where you draft.

Early picks help with that, but teams like Chicago, LA, Pittsburgh had success because of their strong early picks, as well as finding late round gems.

Tanking is not the solution. And really it only worked for Chicago and Pittsburgh.

I'd argue more that it's about drafting at the top of the draft, and then drafting very well throughout the drafts, doing well in free agency, and doing excellent work in the trade market.

You need all four to win.

- Flames have done a good job of drafting outside of the first round.
- Flames have done a good job in the trade market
- Flames have done an average job in free agency. For our successes in Markstrom and Tanev, we still have north of $6M sunk into Lucic (thanks to Neal) and Brouwer's payout.
- Flames have not drafted in the top 3 (and more importantly, have no drafted in the top 3 in the right year)

This is not a formula that has proven itself as something that comes together to build a championship quality team (or even a consistent playoff team)

The reality is the elite few have won the majority of all Stanley Cups in the modern NHL. Not having at least one of those truly elite players (Hedman, Crosby, Toews, Kane, Ovechkin, Doughty) puts you at an incredible disadvantage and more or less means - with a good deal of certainty, that you aren't going to win a Stanley Cup.

It just is what it is.

Originally Posted by Macho0978

It’s only a good option if presented to you. Like Gaudreau walks via UFA sure let’s do it. He resigns it won’t happen

But this stat shows the rebuild get first overall and have a dynasty model is more a 2005 to 2011 thing. 2nd lockout made it more difficult to accomplish

Tampa wins the cup again and and your looking a 19 year old seguin who was a healthy scratch/4th liner in that playoffs as the only top 3 pick since 2010 to win a cup

I don't think it shows that at all. Look at the Championship teams, just because the most recent top 3 draft pickers haven't won yet, doesn't take away from the fact that other top-3 picks are the backbones of the Championship teams we see every season. I think what it shows is that you need the top-3 elite level talent to act as the foundation of your team, and then your GM has to do an elite job of building ontop of that foundation - and it's not always fast, but it's still the only way to win a Cup.

Elite GMs also put this into their plan. Look at what Yzerman is doing in Detroit. He's been steadily selling, and hoping to bottom out every year. You build your foundation through the top of the draft, and then accumulate as many depth picks as you can while you go along.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Erick Estrada

If you watched this series from afar you would probably be critical of Markstrom in this series. He's not been that good and the statistics back that up. In an important game three in this series the Flames were down 0-3 on only 9 shots and that's a sign that goaltending isn't up to snuff. I mean Smith was laughed out of the dome in game one for letting in 3 goals on 10 shots so let's not get too hypocritical here. I don't think Markstrom has anywhere to hide in this series as he's not been good enough. He's not the only player that's not been good enough but he plays the one position that when you are not good it hurts the team more than any other.

This is true but as someone who hates the penguins and watches all their playoff series M A Fleury is a prime example of how from year to year things can change

Back to back finals vs Detroit elite playoff goalie

2011 to 2015 couldn’t stop a beach ball

Back to back cups and with Vegas elite playoff goalie

I don’t think we should run Markstrom out of town for 1 bad series either. Especially when our d is running around coughing pucks up and our forwards can’t get pucks over the blue line.

If we were dominating and losing because of markstrom fine but the team had been very sloppy too

Look at Fleury vs the flyers a few years before their cups. Might have been the worst goaltending I’ve ever seen

[yourbestfriend]

Originally Posted by habernac

Exhausting Markstrom from playing him too much down the stretch is hardly Markstrom's fault.

His last games in the regular season were on these dates:

April 21
April 28 - Last regular season game
May 03 - First playoff game

In those thirteen days, he played a grand total of 3 games. That is more than enough time to recover. He also basically had a week off between his last 2 games of the regular season. If I recall, there was concern at the time that he wasn't going to get enough playing time before the playoffs began.

Also, if you will just go back a few pages, you'll see how everyone in this thread is basically calling him the MVP of the previous series and how we wouldn't be here if it weren't for him.
So no, it has nothing to do with Markstrom being exhausted. Call it how it is, Markstrom has not played well, simple as that. Don't need to qualify the argument or make up excuses. It sucks, but it happens, just hope he's better next game.

[Shazam]

Dude sees the white and blue and freaks out.

[BoLevi]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

2010: Hall, Seguin, Gudbranson
2011: RNH, Landeskog, Huberdeau
2012: Yakupov, Murray, Galchenyuk
2013: Mackinnon, Barkov, Drouin
2014: Ekblad, Reinhart, Draisaitl
2015: McDavid, Eichel, Strome
2016: Matthews, Laine, Dubois
2017: Hischier, Patrick, Heiskanen
2018: Dahlin, Svechnikov, Kotkaniemi
2019: Hughes, Kaako, Dach
2020: Lafrenier, Byfield, Stutzle

A single cup from that group so far. Seguin won it as a rookie, only played half the playoff games.

Now that could very well change this year if Colorado, Edmonton, Carolina, or New York wins.

But really it's more about drafting well over a long period of time, no matter where you draft.

Early picks help with that, but teams like Chicago, LA, Pittsburgh, Tampa had success because of their strong early picks, but really it was finding late round gems to add to the core that won them the cups.

ah, i see what you mean.

I think it is fair to say that a Top3 type talent is necessary, but not sufficient.

You must have one, but you must also have other things. Or that the Top3 talents still need time to season in the NHL.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

I'd argue more that it's about drafting at the top of the draft, and then drafting very well throughout the drafts, doing well in free agency, and doing excellent work in the trade market.

You need all four to win.

- Flames have done a good job of drafting outside of the first round.
- Flames have done a good job in the trade market
- Flames have done an average job in free agency. For our successes in Markstrom and Tanev, we still have north of $6M sunk into Lucic (thanks to Neal) and Brouwer's payout.
- Flames have not drafted in the top 3 (and more importantly, have no drafted in the top 3 in the right year)

This is not a formula that has proven itself as something that comes together to build a championship quality team (or even a consistent playoff team)

The reality is the elite few have won the majority of all Stanley Cups in the modern NHL. Not having at least one of those truly elite players (Hedman, Crosby, Toews, Kane, Ovechkin, Doughty) puts you at an incredible disadvantage and more or less means - with a good deal of certainty, that you aren't going to win a Stanley Cup.

It just is what it is.



I don't think it shows that at all. Look at the Championship teams, just because the most recent top 3 draft pickers haven't won yet, doesn't take away from the fact that other top-3 picks are the backbones of the Championship teams we see every season. I think what it shows is that you need the top-3 elite level talent to act as the foundation of your team, and then your GM has to do an elite job of building ontop of that foundation - and it's not always fast, but it's still the only way to win a Cup.

Elite GMs also put this into their plan. Look at what Yzerman is doing in Detroit. He's been steadily selling, and hoping to bottom out every year. You build your foundation through the top of the draft, and then accumulate as many depth picks as you can while you go along.

Almost all the recent championship teams also had front loaded long term contracts on their team. This strategy is no longer an option. Pittsburgh and Washington recent cups had Crosby, AO and Backstrom on what would now be illegal contracts.

I don't completely disagree with you that going for a top 3 pick is a good option, I just think only if the situation presents itself. Gaudreau walks and I'm all for ripping it apart.

If not, if he resigns a long term extension I do believe that you can win by doing the other 3 thing you said is required to win well. I think if he have Johnny and Tkachuk signed long term this summer that if Treliving drafts well (the last few draft and move forward), makes good trades, and makes good UFA signings that this team could be very good very soon

What Gaudreau and Tkachuk get and what we do with the dead weight contracts will be key.

It doesn't hurt that Stockton might win the Calder cup lead by some very young promising players. This is part of drafting well and I feel we have drafted well in the last few draft and hopefully it continues

UFA - been the biggest concern to this point and more than likely won'tbe something we can look at this summer. But Monahan and Lucic are off the following so maybe that's our year?

I also think resigning your own players is key too. This might be Trelivings strength. It's a big part of why Tampa is so good. Hedman at $7.8 mil is an absolute steal. No state tax helps though.

We can all specualte what Johnny, Tkachuk, Mangiapane, Kylington's next deal are but until we see exactly what they are it's hard to say we should 100% rebuild. What if Treliving does well in this area?

[Cali Panthers Fan]

Originally Posted by Pointman

If we assume average length of a top 3 pick career is 15 seasons, there are 45 top 3 picks in the league. Even if we assume length of 10 years, there are still as many top 3 picks, as there are teams. On any given season there are only 3-5 teams in the whole league that do NOT have a player picked on top 3.

Some teams have lots of them:

Florida Panthers

1st overall: Aaron Ekblad, Joe Thornton
2nd: Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart
3rd: Jonathan Huberdeau
4th: Sam Bennett

Didn't do much for them this year though. It's a red herring argument.

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Macho0978

Almost all the recent championship teams also had front loaded long term contracts on their team. This strategy is no longer an option. Pittsburgh and Washington recent cups had Crosby, AO and Backstrom on what would now be illegal contracts.

I don't completely disagree with you that going for a top 3 pick is a good option, I just think only if the situation presents itself. Gaudreau walks and I'm all for ripping it apart.

If not, if he resigns a long term extension I do believe that you can win by doing the other 3 thing you said is required to win well. I think if he have Johnny and Tkachuk signed long term this summer that if Treliving drafts well (the last few draft and move forward), makes good trades, and makes good UFA signings that this team could be very good very soon

What Gaudreau and Tkachuk get and what we do with the dead weight contracts will be key.

It doesn't hurt that Stockton might win the Calder cup lead by some very young promising players. This is part of drafting well and I feel we have drafted well in the last few draft and hopefully it continues

UFA - been the biggest concern to this point and more than likely won'tbe something we can look at this summer. But Monahan and Lucic are off the following so maybe that's our year?

I also think resigning your own players is key too. This might be Trelivings strength. It's a big part of why Tampa is so good. Hedman at $7.8 mil is an absolute steal. No state tax helps though.

We can all specualte what Johnny, Tkachuk, Mangiapane, Kylington's next deal are but until we see exactly what they are it's hard to say we should 100% rebuild. What if Treliving does well in this area?

Oh yeah - I’m not screaming to rip it down if the Flames can retain Tkachuk and Gaudreau. Clearly the team has taken a step this year.

In my eyes the team does have a very real problem - how do you contend with McDavid and Mackinnon?

Not to jump to the off-season, as I think that Markstrom is going to come through and the story will change to “how did the Oilers blow a 3-1 lead”, but I do look at Kadri in free agency and it’s damn intriguing.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Some teams have lots of them:

Florida Panthers

1st overall: Aaron Ekblad, Joe Thornton
2nd: Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart
3rd: Jonathan Huberdeau
4th: Sam Bennett

Didn't do much for them this year though. It's a red herring argument.

The Flames have Gubrannson. I assume the theory is you need to draft and develop these players as your backbone.

If Vegas wins the cup, they have Eichel. IMO that isn't a true rebuild drafting a top 3 player or 2 and winning the cup.

[Buff]

Originally Posted by Cali Panthers Fan

Some teams have lots of them:

Florida Panthers

1st overall: Aaron Ekblad, Joe Thornton
2nd: Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart
3rd: Jonathan Huberdeau
4th: Sam Bennett

Didn't do much for them this year though. It's a red herring argument.

I feel that you need to draft and develop the players in order to have them count as a top 3 draft for you. Thornton and the two Sam's are acquired through trade.

[Macho0978]

Originally Posted by ComixZone

Oh yeah - I’m not screaming to rip it down if the Flames can retain Tkachuk and Gaudreau. Clearly the team has taken a step this year.

In my eyes the team does have a very real problem - how do you contend with McDavid and Mackinnon?

Not to jump to the off-season, as I think that Markstrom is going to come through and the story will change to “how did the Oilers blow a 3-1 lead”, but I do look at Kadri in free agency and it’s damn intriguing.

Mackinnon will be tough as Colorado has lots still developing. But they also have his deal up in a year and Kadri isn't signing for $4 mil and very likely won't be in Colorado

Edmonton has some developing but they also have Kane who I bet (see what I did there) they will want to keep. The playoffs he is having good luck getting him cheap. If they don't win it all I still see them as at their peak for the next year or 2. Unless Holland makes some good moves and get rid of the right players and resigns the right players.

Puljujarvi
Yamamoto
Kane

Combined make $4 mil or so. They will get $10+ next year

Mcleod played well enough for a raise.

We have our issues too but once again if Treliving makes good decisions I still believe we could be set up very well for a few more years