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05-09-2022, 10:32 AM
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#62
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Franchise Player
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Is it going to trigger the usual whiners about negativism if it is stated this is a must win game? Time to step up and make a statement about wanting this series more than the rope-a-dope (emphasis on dope) Stars.
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05-09-2022, 10:32 AM
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#63
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: Paradise
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Moneyhands23
Definitely not drinking while watching tonight. Don't want to end up in the CP line for the suicide booth tonight lol.
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Quitter
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05-09-2022, 10:33 AM
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#64
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First Line Centre
Join Date: Oct 2002
Location: Turner Valley
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Win tonight and I like our chances. I feel much more calm and collected about this team doing such than I have with past teams. Flames in 6.
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05-09-2022, 10:33 AM
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#65
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
All season the Flames have been clockwork ...
Get on a 1.2 (mild heater) PDO run and win 9 of 11 games etc.
Get on a stretch where it's 0.9 range and they lose three of four, but get some OT points.
To start the playoffs ... PDO all situations
1. Edmonton 1.054
2. Dallas 1.053
3. Colorado 1.042
4. Washington 1.033
5. Carolina 1.033
16. LA 0.946
15. Calgary 0.947
The Flames are shooting 3.13% in all situations, the average playoff team is 9.25%. Calgary has had 96 shots which is the difference of 9 goals vs the 3 they've scored.
In the regular season the Flames shot 10.0%, and the average NHL team was 9.56%.
Seems to me the Flames are very due for a correction .. the issue? Time. In the regular season you know it's going to come around, in the playoffs it better come around quickly.
High danger chance generation:
Regular season the Flames were 11th at 12.31/game all situation. They gave up 9.75/game all situations, good for 2nd.
Regular season league average 11.56/game
Playoffs they are generating 13.0 per game, good for 6th, and giving up 10.3/game, good for 3rd ... once again all situations.
Playoff average is 12.0.
If you drill deeper they're not as good five on five, but have had a much more potent powerplay without the results.
Honestly ... pretty much everything points to the dam breaking.
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First of all, I agree with all this.
However, I think that if we leave it here, we're missing a very important part of the conversation. In this case, I think there is a reason that they are getting PDO'd. They are playing differently.
In the regular season, they tried to pass it into the net. Now they are shooting from everywhere. It isn't their game, and it isn't a surprise that they are struggling with it.
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05-09-2022, 10:40 AM
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#66
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First Line Centre
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald
Is it going to trigger the usual whiners about negativism if it is stated this is a must win game? Time to step up and make a statement about wanting this series more than the rope-a-dope (emphasis on dope) Stars.
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No, this is must win for sure. If you go down 3-1 and need to win three straight it would be hard to imagine that the Stars don't grind one out, hang around and find a way to win one more. Must win.
__________________
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05-09-2022, 10:43 AM
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#67
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
First of all, I agree with all this.
However, I think that if we leave it here, we're missing a very important part of the conversation. In this case, I think there is a reason that they are getting PDO'd. They are playing differently.
In the regular season, they tried to pass it into the net. Now they are shooting from everywhere. It isn't their game, and it isn't a surprise that they are struggling with it.
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That was my thought heading into it ....
But overall they're generating MORE chances of the high danger brand, not less.
But looking at 5 on 5 alone ...
Calgary and Dallas both generating 11.9 HD chances/60. They are right on the playoff average for the 16 teams.
Regular season the Flames generated 11.8 HD chances/60 but only gave up 9.6.
Really it's more of a leak defensively in terms of generation.
(Huge caveat that these numbers are what they are, certainly an indication of play driving but with a three game sample size it could skew)
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05-09-2022, 10:44 AM
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#68
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald
Is it going to trigger the usual whiners about negativism if it is stated this is a must win game? Time to step up and make a statement about wanting this series more than the rope-a-dope (emphasis on dope) Stars.
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It's a must win if you want a statistically probable chance of advancing to the next round for sure.
Lose it and you ignore all that and try and win game 5.
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05-09-2022, 10:44 AM
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#69
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Springbank
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I've always viewed game 4 as the most important in any series no matter how the series stands. 3-0 and obviously must win to stay alive (or on the other side, to win). 2-1 and it's either a 3-1 stranglehold (and we've all seen those odds) or tied and back to home ice advantage.
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05-09-2022, 10:45 AM
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#70
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jan 2018
Location: Alberta
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald
Is it going to trigger the usual whiners about negativism if it is stated this is a must win game? Time to step up and make a statement about wanting this series more than the rope-a-dope (emphasis on dope) Stars.
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No one should be offended. It is of course a must win game.
It's the people saying that we shouldn't re sign Johnny or Tkachuk because of their playoffs so far that need their noggins knocked.
Support our team while they're still playing. Personally attacking player performances mid playoff series just makes you look like a joke. Open up the corpse when it's dead, pulling an autopsy while they're still alive will only help kill confidence.
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05-09-2022, 10:47 AM
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#71
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Franchise Player
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Pavelski's goals in this series have been off deflections and rebounds.
Hope our forwards take a page out of his book today... drive more to the net. Like LA did last night.
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05-09-2022, 10:51 AM
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#72
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Lifetime Suspension
Join Date: Jan 2014
Location: victoria
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Samonadreau
Quitter
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I had some horrible drunk posts after last game
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05-09-2022, 10:53 AM
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#73
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: Red Deer
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__________________
"It's a great day for hockey."
-'Badger' Bob Johnson (1931-1991)
"I see as much misery out of them moving to justify theirselves as them that set out to do harm."
-Dr. Amos "Doc" Cochran
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05-09-2022, 10:53 AM
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#74
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
That was my thought heading into it ....
But overall they're generating MORE chances of the high danger brand, not less.
But looking at 5 on 5 alone ...
Calgary and Dallas both generating 11.9 HD chances/60. They are right on the playoff average for the 16 teams.
Regular season the Flames generated 11.8 HD chances/60 but only gave up 9.6.
Really it's more of a leak defensively in terms of generation.
(Huge caveat that these numbers are what they are, certainly an indication of play driving but with a three game sample size it could skew)
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More high danger chances, because they are shooting more.
But they aren't better high danger chances. That's why their success rate is down. Some luck, some lack of creativity.
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05-09-2022, 10:54 AM
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#75
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2003
Location: North Vancouver
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Win tonight and I think the Flames will re-gain their confidence and end up winning the series. Lose, and that's probably all she wrote. If they go down 3-1, I just can't see them winning 3 in a row against Pavelski and Oettinger.
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05-09-2022, 10:55 AM
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#76
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First Line Centre
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I noticed frustration between our D and forwards, which I wouldn't be overly concerned about as they are just competitive guys, but hopefully it doesn't lead to a disconnect. You had Johnny and Toff both visibly pissed at Kylington for his low percentage shots, last game I noticed Hanifin throwing up his arms when Johnny shot instead of passed on the 2-1 (I think it was Hanifin, he was wide open for a tap-in), then later in the game Johnny is visibly pissed at Hanifin for his weak attempts and not getting it down low for the cycle...They're just not all gelling right now and that does appear a little concerning but hopefully they get it together here starting tonight.
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05-09-2022, 10:55 AM
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#77
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Enoch Root
More high danger chances, because they are shooting more.
But they aren't better high danger chances. That's why their success rate is down. Some luck, some lack of creativity.
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Don't think so.
Counts/60 are out right not percentages. They're literally getting more high danger chances in 60 minutes of hockey than they did in the regular season.
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05-09-2022, 10:56 AM
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#78
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Franchise Player
Join Date: Oct 2014
Location: Springbank
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Yamer
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Without hearing the context it's hard to know what he's intending to say. Either a "he knows I'd beat his ass" or "he is too smart to take himself out of a close game because I goaded him".
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05-09-2022, 10:59 AM
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#79
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Franchise Player
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Bingo
Don't think so.
Counts/60 are out right not percentages. They're literally getting more high danger chances in 60 minutes of hockey than they did in the regular season.
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Yes, I understand that.
But the reason is because they are shooting from everywhere. In the regular season, they would be more inclined to make another pass. And with the extra pass, you either get a BETTER scoring chance, or you don't get a chance at all.
If you always make the extra pass, you get fewer chances, but will score at a higher rate.
If you shoot from everywhere, you will get more chances - including more high danger chances - but you will have a lower success rate.
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05-09-2022, 10:59 AM
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#80
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Owner
Join Date: Dec 2001
Location: Calgary
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Forwards ...
Looking at the differential of xGF% in the playoffs vs xGF% in the regular season.
Rock Stars:
Lewis +16.5%
Lucic +15.4%
Toffoli +8.5%
Jarnkrok +4.5%
Similar:
Backlund +0.6%
Coleman -1.2%
Mangiapane -1.3%
Hurting:
Dube -17.2%
Lindholm -14.6%
Tkachuk -12.6%
Gaudreau -9.7%
Keep in mind the Flames top line was off the charts in the regular season, and that would be difficult to maintain in the playoffs.
Looking at Toronto ...
Bunting -22.9%
Marner -16.2%
Matthew -12.6%
Draisaitl is -10.9%
McDavid +12.4%
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