Playoff expectations

[Rutuu]

This is our second best statistical regular season. There is a lot of uncertainty after the final whistle blows. Our greatest asset wears a suit and walks the bench. As a franchise, we are underdogs.

In Sutter We Trust.

We win the whole darn thing.

[rohara66]

Anything short of the cup will be disappointing. Unfinished business.

[DoubleK]

They have to make it to the 3rd round.

Anything less will be a gross underachievement.

[ComixZone]

Expectations are the death of fun.

Just battle. Anything can happen in the playoffs and a tight series can come down to lucky bounces.

So no expectations on results, but as a team just battle to the end whenever that may come.

[Macho0978]

Win at least 1 round and if we lose a series it a close series. Can’t have any series loss where we were completely outmatched even if it is against a team like Colorado

[Cowboy89]

Originally Posted by Rutuu

This is our second best statistical regular season. There is a lot of uncertainty after the final whistle blows. Our greatest asset wears a suit and walks the bench. As a franchise, we are underdogs.

In Sutter We Trust.

We win the whole darn thing.

I would argue that this might be our third best statistical season. In 1987-1988 they won the presidents trophy with 105 points in 80 games with 9 ties. If that team played 82 games and had 3 on 3 OT and shootouts to decide those tie games they probably finish with more than this year's tally of 111 points. Incidentally that season was a bust because despite winning the first round against the Kings they got swept by the Oilers in the second round .

Given they won the division this year in the regular season, it makes sense that the expectation line is that they do the same in the playoffs and make the 3rd round.

[Rutuu]

Originally Posted by Cowboy89

I would argue that this might be our third best statistical season. In 1987-1988 they won the presidents trophy with 105 points in 80 games with 9 ties. If that team played 82 games and had 3 on 3 OT and shootouts to decide those tie games they probably finish with more than this year's tally of 111 points. Incidentally that season was a bust because despite winning the first round against the Kings they got swept by the Oilers in the second round .

Given they won the division this year in the regular season, it makes sense that the expectation line is that they do the same in the playoffs and make the 3rd round.

Yes. I agree with you in regards to the 1988 team being great...Grant Fuhr out dueled Vernon, and a 26yr old Gretzky that missed 16 games in the regular season, was back for the playoffs and put the dagger in us. The historic similarities are there, but it feels more like the 2018-19 team's fate.

Still as a franchise, like Sutter said, we are an underdog until we are not.

[DiracSpike]

Realistically, competitive 3rd round loss minimum or it's failure. 100%. Failure in the sense that we should all be disappointed, ownership should be upset with lack of fair value playoff revenue, and a large scale re-tool like letting Johnny walk and planning on being bad for a few years would be the best course of action. IMO of course. This is absolutely the last kick at the can for a lot of players in the org, we're going to get a last chance look at what the playoff ceiling is for this iteration.

Im 30 years old, the Flames have been out of the first round twice in my entire life. 18 years since the last time they had a competitive second round series. That ridiculous implosion against the Avalanche 3 years ago looms large, yeah they were a lot better than anyone gave them credit for at the time but still, the Flames were the top seed in the conference and they got the wheels smashed off. I'm skeptical this team can do it, because I've rarely seen it and my sky-high hopes in 2019 got thrown off a bridge, but absolutely this is third round or bust for this group. I hope they're feeling a little bit of pressure and embarrassment for past playoffs that they're keen to make up for this year.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by DiracSpike

Realistically, competitive 3rd round loss MINIMUM or it's failure. 100%. Failure in the sense that we should all be disappointed, ownership should be upset with lack of fair value playoff revenue, and a large scale re-tool like letting Johnny walk and planning on being bad for a few years would be the best course of action.

Yup, absolutely. If the best Flames team in decades does not win at least two 7-game crapshoots, the only rational thing to do is to make the team as bad as you possibly can. Blow everything up! Burn down the Saddledome! Sow the earth with salt!

Just ask Lightning fans. They unanimously support the owners' decision to fire everyone, trade off all the good players, and tank for a decade after losing the first round in 2019. It's what all good teams do.

[DiracSpike]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Yup, absolutely. If the best Flames team in decades does not win at least two 7-game crapshoots, the only rational thing to do is to make the team as bad as you possibly can. Blow everything up! Burn down the Saddledome! Sow the earth with salt!

Just ask Lightning fans. They unanimously support the owners' decision to fire everyone, trade off all the good players, and tank for a decade after losing the first round in 2019. It's what all good teams do.

Have you been in a coma for the past 7 years?

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Yup, absolutely. If the best Flames team in decades does not win at least two 7-game crapshoots, the only rational thing to do is to make the team as bad as you possibly can. Blow everything up! Burn down the Saddledome! Sow the earth with salt!

Just ask Lightning fans. They unanimously support the owners' decision to fire everyone, trade off all the good players, and tank for a decade after losing the first round in 2019. It's what all good teams do.

I’m not endorsing blowing anything up but comparing the two teams isn’t reflecting reality either. Is there an NHL team facing a bigger off-season than the Flames?

And look, this is definitely a good team. Best team in decades? I say let that be decided on the ice.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I’m not endorsing blowing anything up but comparing the two teams isn’t reflecting reality either. Is there an NHL team facing a bigger off-season than the Flames?

Is there a meaningful way of even quantifying the bigness of off-seasons? I say there is no answer to an empty question.

And look, this is definitely a good team. Best team in decades? I say let that be decided on the ice.

Best regular-season performance in decades. The playoffs are a crapshoot. Montreal was not the second-best team in the NHL last year, and Tampa Bay was not the 16th-best team in 2019. In fact, that year, all four division winners were bounced in the first round, a fact conveniently forgotten by the people who want to blame the Flames and only the Flames for ‘choking’.

Anyone who thinks the best team always wins in a 7-game playoff series is simply not using their head. It's fundamentally irrational to throw out 82 games of evidence and base your evaluation entirely on 7. But that is what a lot of hockey fans, I am afraid, routinely do.

[dammage79]

For the team themselves, probably Conference finals.

For me. A round. I've purposely carried low expectations all year. And in doing so have reaped the benefits of being happy while I watch games. So for the Flames to have a successful season this year for me, win 1 playoff round. Everything else is gravy.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by DiracSpike

Have you been in a coma for the past 7 years?

Nice insult. As Jason Statham said in Snatch, ‘I'll have to remember that one next time I'm climbing off yer mum.’

What have the last seven years got to do with anything? People like you keep banging on about how ‘this core’ has never got it done in the postseason. Well, here is the entire list of players on the active roster today who have been on the roster for the last seven years:

Johnny Gaudreau
Mikael Backlund

That's it. No wonder the team never wins, if it only has two core players!

This isn't the same team that was in the playoffs of 2015, 2017, 2019, or 2020. At the moment, the Flames' roster page at nhl.com lists 26 players. Only 12 of those were on the team in 2020, and one of those 12 is Sean Monahan, who won't be playing. The persistence of some fans in talking as if this were the same team as ever is incomprehensible to me.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Is there a meaningful way of even quantifying the bigness of off-seasons? I say there is no answer to an empty question.



Best regular-season performance in decades. The playoffs are a crapshoot. Montreal was not the second-best team in the NHL last year, and Tampa Bay was not the 16th-best team in 2019. In fact, that year, all four division winners were bounced in the first round, a fact conveniently forgotten by the people who want to blame the Flames and only the Flames for ‘choking’.

Anyone who thinks the best team always wins in a 7-game playoff series is simply not using their head. It's fundamentally irrational to throw out 82 games of evidence and base your evaluation entirely on 7. But that is what a lot of hockey fans, I am afraid, routinely do.

I think you're being obtuse, the contract situation of key players is rather obvious, there is little comparison to that Lightning team at all.

Best regular season in decades? It was an excellent regular season no doubt. Better than 2006 and 2019? Probably not.

There is a chasm of difference between "crapshoot' and "best team always wins a seven game series".

Suggesting that these playoffs aren't going to be very telling for this club is kind of sticking your head in the sand IMO. Should someone base their entire analysis of this team on a 7 game series? Of course not. This team didn't just come into existence this year.

[Dion]

Sutter has this team prepaired in all aspects of the game. It won't be from a lack of effort should the Flames go out in the first round. However far they go I will be proud of this team and what they have done this season.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

I think you're being obtuse,

Thanks for the insult. Statham, quote, mum, repeat.

the contract situation of key players is rather obvious,

The poster to whom I was initially replying said the Flames should let Gaudreau walk for nothing if they don't win at least two playoff rounds. That's far from obvious.

there is little comparison to that Lightning team at all.

I'm not comparing the teams. I'm criticizing the thought process that says losing in the first round is grounds for blowing up a team – any team – and doing a full rebuild. In fact, I'm saying it isn't a thought process at all; more of an emotional tantrum with no thinking involved.

Best regular season in decades? It was an excellent regular season no doubt. Better than 2006 and 2019? Probably not.

Numbers say it was better than 2006 or 2019.

There is a chasm of difference between "crapshoot' and "best team always wins a seven game series".

There are no bad teams in the playoffs anymore. This isn't the 80s, when 16 of 21 made the postseason. The difference between the best playoff team and the worst playoff team is smaller than it has ever been, and so-called upsets happen every single year. It's a lot closer to a crapshoot than most fans are willing to admit.

Suggesting that these playoffs aren't going to be very telling for this club is kind of sticking your head in the sand IMO. Should someone base their entire analysis of this team on a 7 game series? Of course not. This team didn't just come into existence this year.

Actually, this team – this roster, with this particular group of core players and this particular coaching staff – did in fact just come into existence this year. Last year, Giordano and Monahan were core players. Two years ago – the last time the Flames produced any playoff data at all – none of Markstrom, Tanev, Coleman, or Toffoli were on the roster; Kylington was a bit player who was still trying to figure out the NHL game; and Geoff Ward was the coach. I think it's a pretty damn big stretch to assume that anything about that year's performance has predictive value for this year.

[Strange Brew]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Thanks for the insult. Statham, quote, mum, repeat.



The poster to whom I was initially replying said the Flames should let Gaudreau walk for nothing if they don't win at least two playoff rounds. That's far from obvious.



I'm not comparing the teams. I'm criticizing the thought process that says losing in the first round is grounds for blowing up a team – any team – and doing a full rebuild. In fact, I'm saying it isn't a thought process at all; more of an emotional tantrum with no thinking involved.



Numbers say it was better than 2006 or 2019.



There are no bad teams in the playoffs anymore. This isn't the 80s, when 16 of 21 made the postseason. The difference between the best playoff team and the worst playoff team is smaller than it has ever been, and so-called upsets happen every single year. It's a lot closer to a crapshoot than most fans are willing to admit.



Actually, this team – this roster, with this particular group of core players and this particular coaching staff – did in fact just come into existence this year. Last year, Giordano and Monahan were core players. Two years ago – the last time the Flames produced any playoff data at all – none of Markstrom, Tanev, Coleman, and Toffoli were on the roster; Kylington was a bit player who was still trying to figure out the NHL game; and Geoff Ward was the coach. I think it's a pretty damn big stretch to assume that anything about that year's performance has predictive value for this year.

It wasn't meant to be an insult, I thought it was intentional on your part. I apologize.

At no point did I sate the team should be "blown up" regardless of playoff outcome. I just very specifically disagree with certain things you are stating.

Playoffs are not a total crapshoot. 4 multiple Cup winners in last 10 years.

You mention some key players that are different for the Flames, while specifically forgetting about the biggest players on the team. Of course this team is different than prior versions. Let's see how they play.

[DiracSpike]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

Nice insult. As Jason Statham said in Snatch, ‘I'll have to remember that one next time I'm climbing off yer mum.’

What have the last seven years got to do with anything? People like you keep banging on about how ‘this core’ has never got it done in the postseason. Well, here is the entire list of players on the active roster today who have been on the roster for the last seven years:

Johnny Gaudreau
Mikael Backlund

That's it. No wonder the team never wins, if it only has two core players!

This isn't the same team that was in the playoffs of 2015, 2017, 2019, or 2020. At the moment, the Flames' roster page at nhl.com lists 26 players. Only 12 of those were on the team in 2020, and one of those 12 is Sean Monahan, who won't be playing. The persistence of some fans in talking as if this were the same team as ever is incomprehensible to me.

thanks for providing the citation for your mom chirp lol

Anyways yeah, your Tampa comp is terrible. That was an elite team that had proved it could hack it in the playoffs (ie win a freaking series) up til that point. There was clearly something there. They also didn't have their number one player about to enter free agency. Also they're the strongest NHL dynasty in decades so talk about cherry picking your choice. It's just an all around awful comparison point that doesnt apply to the Flames this year at all.

The "crapshoot 7 game series" canard also doesn't hold for the flames this year. They've made the playoffs 5 times, they've had plenty of looks. Most of their series losses weren't particularly close, the ducks twice and the avalanche were robust ass kickings. Considering all that plus the quality of opponent the Flames are facing now and would expect to be facing in the second round these have to be wins. We need to have some self-esteem as a fan base, I know we're accustomed to mediocrity from this team but that doesn't mean we have chalk up what would be a huge and justified disappointment to bad bounces or bad luck, good hockey teams like we supposedly have are expected to beat lower teams in series.

And yeah, we've had some guys move around and the roster has turned over a lot since 2015 but most of our top players have been here for multiple playoff letdowns. Multiple. But deeper than that, this year really is a referendum on Gaudreau so it's fitting that he's been around for all of it. We're about to get yet another data point on what happens when Gaudreau is your best player. The returns so far are not great. *IF* it happens again, then pretty clearly what you get with johnny as your best player is a team that has bursts, either misses the playoffs or finishes fairly high, but always loses. It's pretty clear from that point, and especially prescient with him about to become a UFA that the Flames would have to contribute even more of their already stretched cap to, that if your goal is to actually win a championship it's not in the cards.

Also I never said blow it up, I said re-tool.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

It wasn't meant to be an insult, I thought it was intentional on your part. I apologize.

I apologize for overreacting.

At no point did I sate the team should be "blown up" regardless of playoff outcome. I just very specifically disagree with certain things you are stating.

That's fair. I was responding to a poster who very specifically did say the team should be blown up if they don't go deep in this year's playoffs. I do understand that is not your view.

Playoffs are not a total crapshoot. 4 multiple Cup winners in last 10 years.

Let's take a look at those four teams:

Chicago won three championships from 2010 to 2015, but hasn't won a single playoff round since.

Los Angeles won their first Cup as a #8 seed, winning in an upset against every single team they played. The second time, they were down 3-0 in the first round before rallying – and the year after that, they missed the playoffs.

Tampa Bay won the Cup a year after being swept in the first round.

Pittsburgh went from winning back-to-back Cups in 2016 and 2017 to losing the play-in round (to a 12th seed!) in 2020. They have been consistently a pretty good regular-season team for most of the time Crosby has played there, but playoff success has been sporadic. They've had luck more often than most teams, but not even #87 can win 16 playoff games if the luck goes the other way.

The only predictable thing about the Stanley Cup playoffs is their unpredictability.

You mention some key players that are different for the Flames, while specifically forgetting about the biggest players on the team.

I'm not ‘specifically forgetting’ about anything. Does a team have to turn over every single player on the roster in order to be different from the previous year?

Of course this team is different than prior versions.

Ah; question answered, I see.

The question is whether it's different enough to produce different results. Regular season says yes, emphatically. This year's Flames don't play like the Flames of recent years, and it seems logical to suppose that they will win or lose for different reasons than those other teams.

Let's see how they play.

That's all I'm asking for. But some people's minds are already made up, it seems, even before the first puck is dropped.