Flames take underdog approach - let the mind games begin

[dino7c]

Originally Posted by transplant99

2 pts more with 2 more ot/so losses. They were 1, 2, in the whole league from Feb. 10 the day of their coaching change.

Other than that though, its a virtual dead heat...i was surprised when i noticed this a few days ago.

https://www.nhl.com/stats/teams?repo...=0&pageSize=50

Flames also had nothing to play for for a month realistically and the Oilers had a ton of 3 on 3 and SO wins
Flames had 4 more regulation wins (8 more points) that would be like 16+ points over an entire season

In fact the Flames have the most regulation wins in the NHL from that date on

If we are talking playoffs 3 on 3 and SO are totally irrelevant

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by dino7c

If we are talking playoffs 3 on 3 and SO are totally irrelevant

Quite true. As I understand it, every playoff game with the Oilers in it will be played as a 4-on-3 OT power play. This is the league's way of humbly apologizing for not calling enough penalties against their opponents in the regular season, and also, of course, for cruelly and maliciously making them play 5-on-5 during regulation time.

Just in case of mishap, the Oilers have already had their names engraved on the Stanley Cup, and any game results to the contrary will be thrown out.

[Itse]

Underdogs is a stretch, but Dallas is proven playoff performer and Calgary is extremely unproven.

Not many would be shocked if Calgary fails in the first round again, much like no one will be surprised when Toronto chokes again.

[Huntingwhale]

The Flames have sputtered, choked and pretty much have had everything go terribly wrong in round 1 for most of the past 33 years. Damn straight Sutter should have them going in with the underdog mentality. Whatever other kind of group think they had previously clearly doesn't work, especially with some of this core.

IMO as good as the Flames were this season, they simply don't get the benefit of a doubt that they are a clear favorite UNTIL they get over that round 1 hump. It's been the franchises biggest obstacle since pretty much I started following the Flames as a child. Not going to get fooled again until I see it play out in real life.

Also not going to argue with a coach who has 2 rings, another finals appearance and 2 conference finals, using his underdog method.

[transplant99]

The moneypuck model has the Flames with the easiest path to the cup even though they have them ranked 5th overall.

Darryl won't like this.



https://twitter.com/MoneyPuckdotcom/...97782552621056

[DazzlinDino]

Originally Posted by Itse

Underdogs is a stretch, but Dallas is proven playoff performer and Calgary is extremely unproven.

Not many would be shocked if Calgary fails in the first round again, much like no one will be surprised when Toronto chokes again.

Underdog is no stretch it is a state of mind. There is only one goal each game and only one winner. Flames will come into each game with the mindset they have accomplished nothing.

[djsFlames]

Flames beat the s### out of the Oilers in the last two meetings during this stretch of "best" hockey. The end.

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by transplant99

The moneypuck model has the Flames with the easiest path to the cup even though they have them ranked 5th overall.

Darryl won't like this.



https://twitter.com/MoneyPuckdotcom/...97782552621056

I can't take this chart seriously when it gives Toronto better odds over Tampa.

[codynw]

Until this group shows it is capable of showing up in the playoffs they are the underdogs, I don't care what the regular season standings say. This year does feel different with Sutter in charge, but they're underdogs until they show they aren't.

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Huntingwhale

...Also not going to argue with a coach who has 2 rings, another finals appearance and 2 conference finals, using his underdog method.

Sutter has coached in four Stanley Cup Finals.


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[Enoch Root]

On that chart, Avs vs MIN...

Better chance of 2nd round, Avs
Better chance of 3rd round, Avs (i.e. against each other)
Better chance of 4th round, Avs
Better chance of winning cup, Wild

How can that possibly be, statistically?

[Party Elephant]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

Sutter has coached in four Stanley Cup Finals.


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2004, 2012, 2014 and...?

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

2004, 2012, 2014 and...?

1992.

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[Itse]

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

2004, 2012, 2014 and...?

1992, associate coach for Chicago under Mike Keenan. Penguins swept the series.

[PugnaciousIntern]

Originally Posted by Party Elephant

2004, 2012, 2014 and...?

Early 90’s with Chicago as an assistant

[Wastedyouth]

The mindset is right. But by almost every possession metric Calgary is better or the best in most statistically tracked categories, league wide.

Hopefully they can play to their regular season level, which was dominant in every facet of the game.

They are better than every team in the league. There is a reason they have the best cup odds in the league by most of the predictors.

The team is underestimated by it's own fan base. Probably PTSD causing it.

They have two of the top 3 xGF% lines in the whole league and one of the best goalies.

Anything less than Western Conference final is a massive massive disappointment in my opinion.

This is special season, I hope it keeps being special.

[looooob]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

On that chart, Avs vs MIN...

Better chance of 2nd round, Avs
Better chance of 3rd round, Avs (i.e. against each other)
Better chance of 4th round, Avs
Better chance of winning cup, Wild

How can that possibly be, statistically?

not going to defend (or slam) their model but I think its a combination of
1. ? a typo/data error- on their site in the main table they have Aves 13.7 and Minny 13.3 for the cup (reversed in this chart)
2. their models seem to like Minnesota better as a team, but they like the Aves path better (which must be based on a late adjustment on Nashville because their ranking of STL is quite low I think)- so I do think if either team was in the finals this model would spit out Minnesota as slightly better odds

[Vinny01]

Question:

If the Flames play the Wild in the conference finals who gets home ice? The team with more points or the division winner? If it is the Wild I am not sure why the flames wouldn’t have pushed harder to win one of those 2 final games.

On the underdog mentality. You look at Sutter’s teams that went on long runs. In 2004 the Flames faced 4 division winners and were the underdog in each series and it proved to help fuel the team (the autograph story against the Wings has been told a few times recently). In 2012 they were the 8 seed and even though the way they steamrolled teams made them the favorite by the later rounds they never abandoned the mentality they were underdogs. In 2014 they were down 3-0 and certainly were the underdogs going long in each series until the cup final.

I think because the Flames recently played and lost to Dallas who was a cup finalist 2 years ago helps make this narrative a little more believable despite the fact that outside almost everyone is calling for a Flames win in likely a short series.

[timbit]

Originally Posted by Itse

Underdogs is a stretch, but Dallas is proven playoff performer and Calgary is extremely unproven.

Not many would be shocked if Calgary fails in the first round again, much like no one will be surprised when Toronto chokes again.

Add up the Stanley Cups on each roster.

Not even close....

[1qqaaz]

Yes it's quite interesting how the Flames take the underdog angle, whereas the Oilers take the overdog angle.