Russia invades Ukraine

[burn_this_city]

All the Kamil Galeev twitter threads are fantastic. The one on Lukashenko from the other day is quite interesting as well.

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...967406593.html

[Itse]

The war in Ukraine has caused the largest refugee crisis since WW2, and a spike in global prices of wheat, gas, oil and fertilizers.

It's legitimately a huge event that touches the lives of essentially everyone on the planet

[TherapyforGlencross]

For those who follow Russian politics and behaviour more than I do:

How much of this is a bluff and how much is it of Russia reaching its breaking point of NATO supplying arms to Ukraine?

Sorry, I know it’s Yahoo News.. but I’m curious.

The Kremlin has threatened to strike British military targets in retaliation for the UK's support of Ukraine, as Vladimir Putin's invasion stretches into its 63rd day.

Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova suggested that Moscow could target territory of Nato countries which have been supplying arms to Kyiv, to defend itself from Vladimir Putin's forces.

Zakharova said: "Do we understand correctly that for the sake of disrupting the logistics of military supplies, Russia can strike military targets on the territory of those Nato countries that supply arms to the Kyiv regime?

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/ukraine-wa...G_AbVIWxbpkgnA

[PeteMoss]

Obvious bluff unless they want to start a war with NATO while their military is being destroyed by Ukraine.

[AltaGuy]

I think the concern/attention on the Ukraine conflict is because of Russia, not because of Ukraine. Europeans have been scared of Russia since at least the 18th century: such a massive country, both European and not in character.

It's almost like that fear/revulsion people have of robots: the more almost-human they are, the more people have a natural fear of them. Likewise, Russia has always been the "other", but in a familiar, off-putting way (to Europeans) - unlike China or India who are clearly just vastly different without a long shared-history.

And of course there's the Cold War.

The Ukrainians garner sympathy/empathy because we are scared of Russia in the West: particularly and uniquely frightened. Have been for a long, long time. I've even found it somewhat enlightening - if amusing - that so many Americans seem to be contemplating/worrying about a Russian invasion of the US, a la Red Dawn or something.

Even a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, with its vastly more dire consequences for world peace, wouldn't garner the same basic reaction I would argue. Russia just scares us in a unique, historical way.

[CroFlames]

The leaders of NATO countries aren't desperate like Putin is. Maybe Putin indeed plans to strike a NATO facility, forcing them to strike back, thereby giving him an excuse to escalate even further (i.e.: ICBMs).

[Leondros]

Originally Posted by opendoor

I think you're overstating the stability of non-NATO Europe. There had been a Russian-backed civil war in Ukraine for 8 years prior to this war and they've had 2 revolutions in the last 20 years. And of course there were the Yugoslav wars in Europe in the 90s and revolutions in several Warsaw Pact states in the '80s and '90s.

Obviously war between nation states is a bit different, but this isn't like France attacking Germany or something. There's a reason that Ukraine has spent the last 8 years preparing for this and the West was pouring arms into the country and training troops even under Harper and Obama.

And I think you are understating the severity of a nuclear super power invading its neighbor. This is no longer a proxy war. This is Russian boots on foreign soil who is a neighbor to NATO nations. Its a pretty big deal.

This is actually more similar to France invading Germany given its a nuclear power attacking a non-nuclear power than civil wars in the Middle East or Africa. Add that on to the GDP significance, food, and energy secuity impact and this the defacto largest conflict to impact the Western world since WWII. This conflict will have repercussions to climate goals, economies and European security for generations to come.

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

The leaders of NATO countries aren't desperate like Putin is. Maybe Putin indeed plans to strike a NATO facility, forcing them to strike back, thereby giving him an excuse to escalate even further (i.e.: ICBMs).

I don't think Putin wants to go Nuclear, certainly not ICBM nuclear. If there is no world there is no potential to rebuild the USSR.

I don't see him using tactical nukes either, that is a tuff genie to put back in the bottle

[Itse]

Originally Posted by TherapyforGlencross

For those who follow Russian politics and behaviour more than I do:

How much of this is a bluff and how much is it of Russia reaching its breaking point of NATO supplying arms to Ukraine?

Sorry, I know it’s Yahoo News.. but I’m curious.

https://uk.news.yahoo.com/ukraine-wa...G_AbVIWxbpkgnA

It's not new at all, they've been at least very strongly implying this stuff since the beginning of the war. They even implied they might nuke Finland if we joined NATO. People here in Finland have been tuning it out since about week 2.

Doesn't mean that they're not close to a breaking point or they wouldn't do it, but them making these threats really doesn't mean anything one way or the other.

If we're assuming Russia is behaving rationally to any extent, then obviously they won't do it. They don't have the muscle to do the kind of damage that would really make a difference, all it would do is make their own situation even worse. Currently friendly countries with a sense of self-preservation would likely quickly join in the sanctions, and it would mostly just galvanize resistance towards Russia.

Of course Russia might not behave rationally, they've done plenty to make their situation worse already.

However, if there's one thing Russia has been fairly consistent about, it's that they've been doing the opposite of what they've said.

If they actually were planning to attack NATO like that, it's more likely they wouldn't be talking about it.

EDIT: Currently Russia is working hard to create infighting in the opposing countries, with little success. These types of threats are much more likely meant to provide ammo for the Russia-supported voices within NATO-countries that are saying "oh we shouldn't be this involved".

So if I was a betting man I'd say it's essentially just bluffing.

After all, the best and likely only real way Putin can get a win here is if the west loses its will to support Ukraine. Bombing more countries would go against that goal.

[Huntingwhale]

Originally Posted by TherapyforGlencross

For those who follow Russian politics and behaviour more than I do:

How much of this is a bluff and how much is it of Russia reaching its breaking point of NATO supplying arms to Ukraine?

Sorry, I know it’s Yahoo News.. but I’m curious.






https://uk.news.yahoo.com/ukraine-wa...G_AbVIWxbpkgnA

Every time a Russian politician moves their lips, verbal diarrhea spews out. I got a hearty chuckle when I read this one.

Can't wait to see what nonsense threat is spewed forth tomorrow.

[FlamesAddiction]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

Presumably you don’t follow events in Africa.

It’s understandable that most North Americans feel more outrage at slaughters inflicted on people who look like them captured on social media than the slaughters of Africans who have minimal presence on TikTok. But it’s remarkable how much more.

Tens of thousands of civilians have been slaughtered every year of our lives. Mass rapes by rampaging armies have been carried out every year of our lives. Horrors carried out in war zones with impunity every year of our lives. But years on end have gone by without any of these atrocities showing as much as a blip on the collective consciousness of Canadians.

In the last 10 years alone:

Yemeni Crisis

377,000 dead and counting

Public outrage in Canada 1/10

Tigray War

300,000 - 500,000 dead and counting

Public outrage in Canada 0/10

Ethnic cleansing in South Sudan

386,000 - 400,000 dead and counting

Public outrage in Canada 1/10 (mostly religious groups)

Syrian Civil War

500,000 to 600,000 dead and counting

Public outrage in Canada 2/10

Boko Haram insurgency

358,000 dead and counting

Public outrage in Canada 1/10


Ukraine War

20,000 - 30,000 dead and counting

Public outrage in Canada 10/10


Pointing out this disparity doesn’t mean excusing what’s happening in Ukraine. But it does raise troubling questions about how selective our attention is and what sorts of victims elicit our compassion and outrage which we more or less ignore.

It shouldn't be a surprise that Canada, a country in NATO, has a lot more outrage about an invasion on an independent country on NATO's border by an enemy that has threatened nuclear war. I am sure countries in the African Union are a lot more concerned with the Tigray and Boko Haram than they are with Ukraine. People tend to pay more attention to conflicts that affect them more directly or that have larger regional or global implications. I also think you are under estimating how much outrage there was in Canada during the peak of the Syrian war. It dominated the news cycle for a while. For 8 years, there was a civil war going on in Ukraine and it was hardly on the news, yet during some of that time the Syrian conflict was all dominating the news and people were outraged.

There is also the fact that Canada has about 1.4 million people that identify as having Ukrainian heritage, which isn't an insignificant number and has some political weight. It's not that different than how when something happens in places like Lebanon or Haiti, the Canadian government pays a little more attention than they do in places like Yemen or Sudan. Those groups have some pull in Canada, despite those conflicts being relatively insignificant on a global scale.

[Bagor]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Neutral Switzerland has held up German arms deliveries to Ukraine by blocking the re-export of Swiss-made ammunition used in Marder infantry fighting vehicles that Kyiv would like to get, Swiss paper SonntagsZeitung reported.

The news comes as German Chancellor Olaf Scholz faces growing criticism for his government's failure to deliver heavy weapons to Ukraine to help it fend off Russian attacks, even as other Western allies step up shipments. read more

The Marder, made by German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall (RHMG.DE), uses ammunition manufactured in Switzerland, the paper said. Switzerland restricts the re-export of such war materiel to conflict zones.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...er-2022-04-24/

I don't get this?
How can a so called neutral country be in the arms manufacturing business?
And then decide that country x can have their munition for use but country y can't?
What's neutral about that?

So what if Germany gets in another war? They stop supplying it?

[CliffFletcher]

Originally Posted by Itse

The war in Ukraine has caused the largest refugee crisis since WW2, and a spike in global prices of wheat, gas, oil and fertilizers.

It's legitimately a huge event that touches the lives of essentially everyone on the planet

It’s more importantly geopolitically, yes. But that doesn’t explain the dramatically different emotional reactions to seeing some dead civilians (this must end NOW!) vs other dead civilians (…).

[curves2000]

Originally Posted by Bagor

I don't get this?
How can a so called neutral country be in the arms manufacturing business?
And then decide that country x can have their munition for use but country y can't?
What's neutral about that?

So what if Germany gets in another war? They stop supplying it?

Something tells me that some back channel chatter might have happened to stop the flow of weapons from Germany. Germany looks like they did something that the top cats didn't want to do and than all of a sudden their hands are tied by someone else.

Smells funny if you ask me.

[Icantwhisper]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

It’s more importantly geopolitically, yes. But that doesn’t explain the dramatically different emotional reactions to seeing some dead civilians (this must end NOW!) vs other dead civilians (…).

Really?? It couldn't be more black and white.

[Bagor]

Originally Posted by curves2000

Something tells me that some back channel chatter might have happened to stop the flow of weapons from Germany. Germany looks like they did something that the top cats didn't want to do and than all of a sudden their hands are tied by someone else.

Smells funny if you ask me.

Or Germany wants to, under pressure, give the impression that it actually wants to help knowing full well the munitions would be blocked.
Well......we tried?

[chubeyr1]

Originally Posted by GordonBlue

someone a couple of posts up mentioned potential Ukraine use of cluster bombs and noted it hasn't been talked about it here.

I'm of the opinion that it's ok. If Ukraine is using them, it's to defeat an attacking army, and it's not even close to being the same as the Russian use of them.

The use of cluster bombs was brought up at the UN. They wanted to ban them.

According to google ever country agreed except USA and Russia.

Just an fyi about cluster bombs. A horrific weapon.

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by CliffFletcher

It’s more importantly geopolitically, yes. But that doesn’t explain the dramatically different emotional reactions to seeing some dead civilians (this must end NOW!) vs other dead civilians (…).

Huntingwhale's ####ing WIFE was in the midst of the invasion and gave us blow by blow updates from the battlefield.

Of course we (CP community) were emotionally involved. Christ.

[FlameOn]

MOD and map updates for the day. Russia has made several minor advances in the Donetsk front capturing a number of small towns near Severodonetsk and Slovyansk on the way to Kramatorsk from the east and north respectively, forcing Ukrainian defenders to retreat and blow a bridge in the area to cut off Russian advance.

Kherson, and Mariupol remain static for the day.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1519177727038967808

https://twitter.com/user/status/1519467610760531974

https://twitter.com/user/status/1519467599133822976


Larger detailed map from Wikipedia

Spoiler!

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_R...ion_of_Ukraine

Russia appears to be preparing for sham "referendums" for the annexation of Donetsk and Luhansk into Russia proper which is a line Ukraine has said will result in the immediate cessation of all peace talks. Not that Russia's word has been worth anything in the talks up to this point from either their administration itself, or their armed forces.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1519446478393126930

[81MC]

Originally Posted by Icantwhisper

Really?? It couldn't be more black and white.

Heh.

I won’t dig it up, but there is studies and evidence that explain the phenomenon. Physiologically our brains react differently with ‘others’, it just so happens that skin tone is such a primal, ‘no other information needed’ cue to our brain that someone is the other.

It’s not really an indictment on anyone to say we ‘care’ less about African suffering than white Europeans. All you can really hope for is that people are aware of other crisis and don’t expect government to put all their eggs in one proverbial basket.

Canadian outrage has less to do with geopolitical importance and more to do with physiology.

Also, it’s why Twitter and short form news is not idea for complex human issues, like Boko Horam or Syrians burying their children.