[PGT] Flames beat Vancouver, 6-3!

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Zevo

I think people are confusing best 2 way forward with the best defensive forward.

Look at Guy Carbonneau, Pavel Datsyuk, and Anze Kopitars numbers. I picked them because they are all multiple Selke winners from different eras and were considered the gold standard for defensive forwards.

In 87/88 Carbonneau didn't crack the top 50 in scoring(he was 135th) and was 35th in +/-.

Interestingly in Datsyuks case he was near the top in both categories in his first two wins but his third straight win he was 26th in scoring and 21st in +/-.

Kopitar meanwhile was 17th in scoring and 2nd in +/- in his first win and 7th in scoring and 15th in +/- on his second win.

I think it has changed abit over the years where they now need show some offense compared to a few decades ago when it was all about defense but +/- doesn't seem to be the definitive stat here.

Lindholm is 24th in scoring and 2nd in +/-

[GioforPM]

I just think it’s hard to be both a top shutdown guy and tops in +/- since a shutdown guy gets the best offensive players on the other team.

Who does Sutter play against the top players when he gets the last change? I think he plays Backlund, unless he thinks he can win a head to head power versus power battle.

[Zevo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

Lindholm is 24th in scoring and 2nd in +/-

Right and should be in the running for the Selke but not because he is 2nd in +/-. He will win it if they think he is the best defensive forward in limiting chances against.

[looooob]

Originally Posted by Zevo

I think people are confusing best 2 way forward with the best defensive forward.

Look at Guy Carbonneau, Pavel Datsyuk, and Anze Kopitars numbers. I picked them because they are all multiple Selke winners from different eras and were considered the gold standard for defensive forwards.

In 87/88 Carbonneau didn't crack the top 50 in scoring(he was 135th) and was 35th in +/-.

Interestingly in Datsyuks case he was near the top in both categories in his first two wins but his third straight win he was 26th in scoring and 21st in +/-.

Kopitar meanwhile was 17th in scoring and 2nd in +/- in his first win and 7th in scoring and 15th in +/- on his second win.

I think it has changed abit over the years where they now need show some offense compared to a few decades ago when it was all about defense but +/- doesn't seem to be the definitive stat here.

I don't have strong feelings here - Bergeron is a worthy winner, Lindholm (as the center and therefore in many ways the defensive engine of the league's best two way line- this season) also merits attention


I will say the award sort of pivoted around 1993


prior to that the award went to guys that were mostly prototypic 'defensive' forwards, at a time where frankly we had no metrics to really go on- so mostly reputation- meaning Bob Gainey if he was around, or Bob Gainey ex-linemates or clones (Jarvis , Ramsay), or someone who happened to shutdown Gretzky one time (Kasper) , guys like that


around 93 (with Gilmours monster offensive year with Toronto- although really Gilmour with the 89 flames was the kind of guy we think of now in the Bergeron/Lindholm mold) it started going mostly to centers who were really good (two way guys) who weren't good enough to be in the Ross or Hart conversations (there was a bit of a transitional phase here where conventional 'defensive forwards' like Peca or Madden or Lehtinen won the award- but guys like that don't win much anymore). when guys like Kesler, Toews, O'Reilly win it its for years when they are at or around PPG

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

And I would counter that with the following...

On ice even strength goals for and against:

Lindholm: 104 - 47, differential +57
Bergeron.: 50 - 33, differential +17

The reason we use chances instead of actual goals is sample size - chances should eliminate luck. But over the course of an entire season, the sample size for actual production is large enough, and chances are essentially irrelevant. What matters is outscoring the opposition.

Over the course of the season, the Flames outscored the opposition 104 - 47 with Lindholm on the ice. That's a historical season, and a total mic drop.

And Bergeron is so far behind that I don't care what any defensive analytics say.

Anyone can choose to make anything they wish out of them.

I don't see it that way but that's fine.

I think the Flames top line has been a little fortunate to have such a bloated goal differential. Good players have good numbers, but they're not the only talent trio in hockey. Things have gone well.

Whether it's elevated shooting percentages or elevated save percentages the expected numbers, to me, speak more to how a team is playing.

Those numbers say Lindholm is likely a far superior offensive player, but not as good a defensive player.

[Enoch Root]

'Fortunate', after 79 games, is a bit of a hot take.

Especially when they have been doing it consistently throughout the season (not from a hot streak)

[Textcritic]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

'Fortunate', after 79 games, is a bit of a hot take.

Especially when they have been doing it consistently throughout the season (not from a hot streak)

I wouldn't call it a "hot streak," but I think it is definitely fair to say it looks like it could be a bit of an outlier. And I don't mean this in the sense that this is a product of ridiculously good fortune or an unsustainable run of good luck in the mould of the Edmonton Oilers. What I mean is that things for the line have gone about as well as one could imagine, and this is definitely not something that is likely to repeat itself at this level. I, for one, am not convinced that we should expect a run of +100-point seasons for each of Gaudreau and Tkachuk for the next several years.

[AustinL_NHL]

The one thing I'll take out of this is at least we have some fans who are so passionate and loving of the incredible season we've had that they're willing to say whatever it takes to make Lindholm look like the rightful Selke winner, even if it means changing the criteria.

If Lindholm is a finalist, I consider that a massive win.

If Lindholm wins, INCREDIBLE!

There's just some of us who buy into Bergeron's godly defensive numbers more than Lindholm's overall numbers, and that's fine. No shame in losing to one of the best defensive players of all time

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I wouldn't call it a "hot streak," but I think it is definitely fair to say it looks like it could be a bit of an outlier. And I don't mean this in the sense that this is a product of ridiculously good fortune or an unsustainable run of good like in the mould of the Edmonton Oilers. What I mean is that things for the line have gone about as well as one could imagine, and this is definitely not something that is likely to repeat itself at this level. I, for one, am not convinced that we should expect a run of +100-point seasons for each of Gaudreau and Tkachuk for the next several years.

Of course not.

But there is a difference between good fortune and a good season. At some point you have to give them credit for a good season, or else what's the point?

[Itse]

Originally Posted by cannon7

It is easier to keep the puck out of your own net when you get 12% more offensive starts than the other guy. That's how many more Bergeron got relative to Lindholm.

If anything, Bergeron's stats are a bit padded because Cassidy needed his line to be a offensive producer (which it didn't even come close to the Lindholm line) and as such Bergeron saw considerably less time in his own zone. That's not taking anything away from Bergeron defensively. It's just that Sutter used the Lindholm line in all situations and they dominated in all situations. Whereas Bergeron's line was used as an offensive line even strength.

While true, and Lindholm also plays about a minute more EV per game, Lindholm has allowed about 30% more goals against.

That's a huge gap.

[Mathgod]

I think there's only one award that Lindy truly cares about winning, it starts with an S but it's not the Selke...

[Cecil Terwilliger]

Sexiest Man Alive?

[heep223]

Originally Posted by Duffalufagus

In Vegas. Had a 5 way parlay going and thought I’d take the stupid Nucks as a hedge. Went 4/5 and lost $1000 because this team doesn’t #### around.

Serves you right

[AC]

Canadian tuxedos to celebrate Toffoli's 30th birthday.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

'Fortunate', after 79 games, is a bit of a hot take.

Especially when they have been doing it consistently throughout the season (not from a hot streak)

So you think that a line that has produced so much of a positive balance that they're breaking modern +/- records aren't fortunate?

Of course they are.

They're a great line, any one can see that, but when you have a huge boost to actual goal splits over expected goal splits and more even strength points than anyone since Gretzky you'd have your share of bounces for sure.

[bdubbs]

Originally Posted by Textcritic

I wouldn't call it a "hot streak," but I think it is definitely fair to say it looks like it could be a bit of an outlier. And I don't mean this in the sense that this is a product of ridiculously good fortune or an unsustainable run of good like in the mould of the Edmonton Oilers. What I mean is that things for the line have gone about as well as one could imagine, and this is definitely not something that is likely to repeat itself at this level. I, for one, am not convinced that we should expect a run of +100-point seasons for each of Gaudreau and Tkachuk for the next several years.

This is a logical, even-keeled take, but I'm a fan and damn it if I won't hope for another season of the same!

[djsFlames]

Originally Posted by Cecil Terwilliger

Sexiest Man Alive?

What does that trophy look like

[CsInMyBlood]

Originally Posted by djsFlames

What does that trophy look like

Chris Tanev.

[Mathgod]

Originally Posted by Duffalufagus

In Vegas. Had a 5 way parlay going and thought I’d take the stupid Nucks as a hedge. Went 4/5 and lost $1000 because this team doesn’t #### around.

Hah. Reminds me of when I put money on the Dolts in 2019 vs the Jackets. Lesson learned, never bet money on teams that are no good.

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Bingo

So you think that a line that has produced so much of a positive balance that they're breaking modern +/- records aren't fortunate?

Of course they are.

They're a great line, any one can see that, but when you have a huge boost to actual goal splits over expected goal splits and more even strength points than anyone since Gretzky you'd have your share of bounces for sure.

When you're above expected splits for 20 games or so, you're fortunate.

When you run above expected splits - consistently - for 80 games, you had a great year.

Can you have a great year without being fortunate? No, you need things to go your way.

But you can't dismiss all deviations from expected as 'fortunate'. Sometimes it's because you kicked ass. And the top line, this year, kicked ass. Saying they were fortunate, and produced above expected, is just not giving them the credit they deserve.

Can they do that again next year? Unlikely. But that doesn't mean they aren't full marks for this year. They have been, hands down, and all season long, the best line in the game. Consistently. Saying they have been fortunate because they have produced above expected, is missing the forest for the trees.