Russia invades Ukraine

[burn_this_city]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1516505940996108301

[Tiger]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Leaked preparations for the Victory Day Parade.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1515804103129063429

does that flag not look suspect? "If we erase half the symbol it doesn't look nazi at all!"

[CaptainCrunch]

I don't know if its a Nazi flag, but it could be one of hundreds of old Russian or Soviet era military flags. When I did a google image search it came up with nothing

[CaptainCrunch]

By the way, it looks like there's a whole bunch of photoshopping on that video. Take a look at .03 seconds, where they're carring a TV and the Putin stuff looks faked as hell. I've seen other video pictures of the rehersal and that flag isn't there, though when I did a second search I found a similar flag under neo nazi symbolism.


I wouldn't take that video too seriously.

[FlamesAddiction]

It's obviously a parody, although I can see some people thinking the flag was real.

[CaptainCrunch]

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by FlamesAddiction

It's obviously a parody, although I can see some people thinking the flag was real.

I'll admit to me it was more, I'm curious what that flag means then anything else. I'm a bit ocd.

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by FlameOn

Trudeau says Canada sending artillery to Ukraine in NB press conference, details on type and how many will be released in the coming days. Maybe some of our M777s heading their way since Americans provided them with some M114 155mm howitzers already?

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/can...ters-1.6423273

The sad/funny thing is that the Ukranian's will get Canadian bought military hardware, faster then our own military can get pistols or boots or proper sleeping bags.



Our Forces are literally like the kid outside of the Candy store window staring in as everyone else gets their stuff.

[Byrns]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

The sad/funny thing is that the Ukranian's will get Canadian bought military hardware, faster then our own military can get pistols or boots or proper sleeping bags.



Our Forces are literally like the kid outside of the Candy store window staring in as everyone else gets their stuff.

Its going to take the government 20+ years to replace that arty.

[Itse]

Originally Posted by blankall

I know it's a big piece of Russian propaganda that the Ukrainians are Nazis, and although generally compete BS, in the East its actually true. The Ukrainian government was full on supporting the Azov Battalion, who have been looting Eastern Ukraine for the last decade.

Prior to the latest war, the general population of Donetsk and Luhansk already supported the breakaway Russian puppet states.

Did they? For example in Luhansk, the openly pro-Russian protests I've read about typically only had some thousands of participants, 10k max, which isn't that much in an area with a population of 1.5M and hardly the kind of numbers that are typically associated with popular independence movements. It's also worth noting that for example in Kharkiv during the same time there were ANTI-Russian protests of similar size.

Government buildings were seized with about 2000-3000 people, which is not a lot. There's also plenty of reports that many of those "activists" and "local militia" had arrived from Russia, and while this is a common accusation in situations like this, in this case it's very likely at least partially true. (This was in fact a relatively common tactic for Putin during that period.)

No outside observers were allowed to follow the independence referendum, so there's literally no one other than the LPR leadership to tell us how that vote actually went, and their claim that only 3.8% of the voters voted against independence seems rather fantastic, especially considering that the vote had happened in an area that covered only about half of Luhansk Oblats, while outside of the LPR-controlled area there weren't even significant protests or signs of people wanting to join LPR. (That I've read of, admittedly since I don't read Russia there's a lot I necessarily missed.)

A main reason why I don't believe they were legitimate uprisings is the behavior of the local governments.

A government that rises to power through a popular uprisings enjoys extremely popularity for a while and typically shows a very friendly face to it's people. New populist laws are passed with much fanfare, events like declaring the results of the independence referendum are treated as national celebrations etc. The Luhansk and Donetsk governments on the other hand have behaved like occupying forces from day 1. Instead of welcoming foreign media to demonstrate the popularity of the government as would be expected and, all foreign media was treated with open hostility and even violence. The question of popular support has at no point looked like something either goverenment worries about, which is especially suspicious and completely the opposite of what would be expected if the situation was as Russia and LPR and DPR leaderships claim.

To my eyes it's quite obvious that LPR and DPR governments are little more than armed thugs doing Putins bidding while fighting little turf wars among each other. I don't believe that they are genuine separatist areas, but rather just areas occupied by Russia-backed militias that act like they have relatively little local support. They also act in a way which suggests that they don't much care about the issue of popular support.

Russian support in these two states is likely very strong. It's more than just Russian speakers, they are significant amounts of ethnic Russians in both states.

The idea that ethnic Russians are somehow pro-Russian-nation is largely propaganda.

Heck, there's almost as many ethnic Russians as there are Ukrainians in Mariupol.

[Bring_Back_Shantz]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

I'll admit to me it was more, I'm curious what that flag means then anything else. I'm a bit ocd.

I don't think there is much to it other than subtly calling Putin et al a bunch of Nazis.
That flag is a Nazi flag that has had half of the Swastika removed so that it looks like a Z.

[burn_this_city]

Originally Posted by Itse

Did they? For example in Luhansk, the openly pro-Russian protests I've read about typically only had some thousands of participants, 10k max, which isn't that much in an area with a population of 1.5M and hardly the kind of numbers that are typically associated with popular independence movements. It's also worth noting that for example in Kharkiv during the same time there were ANTI-Russian protests of similar size.

Government buildings were seized with about 2000-3000 people, which is not a lot. There's also plenty of reports that many of those "activists" and "local militia" had arrived from Russia, and while this is a common accusation in situations like this, in this case it's very likely at least partially true. (This was in fact a relatively common tactic for Putin during that period.)

No outside observers were allowed to follow the independence referendum, so there's literally no one other than the LPR leadership to tell us how that vote actually went, and their claim that only 3.8% of the voters voted against independence seems rather fantastic, especially considering that the vote had happened in an area that covered only about half of Luhansk Oblats, while outside of the LPR-controlled area there weren't even significant protests or signs of people wanting to join LPR. (That I've read of, admittedly since I don't read Russia there's a lot I necessarily missed.)

A main reason why I don't believe they were legitimate uprisings is the behavior of the local governments.

A government that rises to power through a popular uprisings enjoys extremely popularity for a while and typically shows a very friendly face to it's people. New populist laws are passed with much fanfare, events like declaring the results of the independence referendum are treated as national celebrations etc. The Luhansk and Donetsk governments on the other hand have behaved like occupying forces from day 1. Instead of welcoming foreign media to demonstrate the popularity of the government as would be expected and, all foreign media was treated with open hostility and even violence. The question of popular support has at no point looked like something either goverenment worries about, which is especially suspicious and completely the opposite of what would be expected if the situation was as Russia and LPR and DPR leaderships claim.

To my eyes it's quite obvious that LPR and DPR governments are little more than armed thugs doing Putins bidding while fighting little turf wars among each other. I don't believe that they are genuine separatist areas, but rather just areas occupied by Russia-backed militias that act like they have relatively little local support. They also act in a way which suggests that they don't much care about the issue of popular support.



The idea that ethnic Russians are somehow pro-Russian-nation is largely propaganda.

Heck, there's almost as many ethnic Russians as there are Ukrainians in Mariupol.

Further to your point, Strelkov has pretty much admitted Moscow stole Crimea and the Donbas by faking support for the so called uprisings. He's a FSB war criminal with a long checkered past of murdering dissidents to further Russia's imperial ambitions. He was there day one of the little green men take over of Crimea and the astroturfed uprisings in DNR and LNR.

These people's republics were strictly intended to undermine Ukraine's central government after the Maidan Revolution, I believe any narrative to the contrary is simply Russian disinformation.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Igor_Girkin

[FlameOn]

Situation from MOD and map updates for the day. Russia's eastern offensive attacks starting yesterday towards Kramatorsk from Kremmina, Popasana, Severodonetsk, do not appear to have made made any significant gains though there are conflicting reports of the capture of Kremmina.

Ukrainian forces have managed to recapture Mar'inka, a small town in West Donetsk, and have repulsed a Russian attack from Kherson near Oleksandrivka. Mariupol defenders hold out for another day.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1516488853187710984

Map from Wikipedia/Ukraine War Mapper

Spoiler!

https://twitter.com/user/status/1516570251680432131

https://twitter.com/user/status/1516570259418976260

https://twitter.com/user/status/1516570268440969224

[FlameOn]

Dutch sending TBD number of YPR-765 AIFVs (based on the M113) to Ukraine, throws shade at Olaf Scholz in their announcement.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1516421996015403018

[Yoho]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1516699030566457344

[CroFlames]

Originally Posted by Yoho

https://twitter.com/user/status/1516699030566457344

Yikes, this puts it into perspective:

Ukraine is set to convene with its closest allies to discuss future security guarantees ...But Canada will not be at the table

Kolga pointed out that Estonia, which has a population the same size as Calgary, has supplied $250 million in weapons, compared to Canada’s $40-50 million. “The $500 million (in military aid) in the budget is very good but the question is where is it going to go and more importantly, when?”

[burn_this_city]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1516521193808875527

[GhostCookie]

Originally Posted by Itse

Did they? For example in Luhansk, the openly pro-Russian protests I've read about typically only had some thousands of participants, 10k max, which isn't that much in an area with a population of 1.5M and hardly the kind of numbers that are typically associated with popular independence movements. It's also worth noting that for example in Kharkiv during the same time there were ANTI-Russian protests of similar size.

Government buildings were seized with about 2000-3000 people, which is not a lot. There's also plenty of reports that many of those "activists" and "local militia" had arrived from Russia, and while this is a common accusation in situations like this, in this case it's very likely at least partially true. (This was in fact a relatively common tactic for Putin during that period.)

No outside observers were allowed to follow the independence referendum, so there's literally no one other than the LPR leadership to tell us how that vote actually went, and their claim that only 3.8% of the voters voted against independence seems rather fantastic, especially considering that the vote had happened in an area that covered only about half of Luhansk Oblats, while outside of the LPR-controlled area there weren't even significant protests or signs of people wanting to join LPR. (That I've read of, admittedly since I don't read Russia there's a lot I necessarily missed.)

A main reason why I don't believe they were legitimate uprisings is the behavior of the local governments.

A government that rises to power through a popular uprisings enjoys extremely popularity for a while and typically shows a very friendly face to it's people. New populist laws are passed with much fanfare, events like declaring the results of the independence referendum are treated as national celebrations etc. The Luhansk and Donetsk governments on the other hand have behaved like occupying forces from day 1. Instead of welcoming foreign media to demonstrate the popularity of the government as would be expected and, all foreign media was treated with open hostility and even violence. The question of popular support has at no point looked like something either goverenment worries about, which is especially suspicious and completely the opposite of what would be expected if the situation was as Russia and LPR and DPR leaderships claim.

To my eyes it's quite obvious that LPR and DPR governments are little more than armed thugs doing Putins bidding while fighting little turf wars among each other. I don't believe that they are genuine separatist areas, but rather just areas occupied by Russia-backed militias that act like they have relatively little local support. They also act in a way which suggests that they don't much care about the issue of popular support.



The idea that ethnic Russians are somehow pro-Russian-nation is largely propaganda.

Heck, there's almost as many ethnic Russians as there are Ukrainians in Mariupol.

It seems to me that the whole plan for the invasion was a blitzkrieg into Ukraine, seize the cities, install puppet leaders who all "vote" to become Russian, and then Russia demands the world accept the new governments as legitimate and fight to have sanctions reduced/removed. That's why pootin thought he could weather the sanctions, because he thought this would all be tied up in a neat bow by now.

And if I recall, the forces in crimea were pretty much all Russian regulars with markings covered, so yeah, i would take any claim from Ruzzia about an areas assertions of independence (or really any claim at all) with boulder size grains of salt.

[FlameOn]

There's also all the displaced Ukrainians either fleeing from the war + forcefully relocated to Siberia and other places before these "votes" of independence took place. Its all a sham land grab to sell "legitimacy" for their actions domestically. Anyone else not drinking the Kremlin Kool-aid can see Russia's actions for what it really is.

[FlameOn]

Russia's now lost more than 3000 vehicles and 521 tanks of an estimated 4000 usable tank force.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1516745893151711233