…and it’s only a bit of NATO lady. Imagine if they really tried. Best you learn your lesson and not do something to really piss off “the one true power”.
Finland has indeed all but decided they would like to join NATO, at least as far as public opinion goes.
However, that would require the approval of every current NATO country, which includes Hungary.
Hungary of course is currently ruled by Viktor Orbán, coming off a fresh election victory. Orbán is an ultra-conservative authoritarian who has been very friendly with Putin, and who was already throwing wrenches in Ukraine's plans to create ties to the EU and NATO, very likely for Putin's benefit.
There have been signs that Orbán might consider abandoning Putin as a weakening ally, but the problem for him is that his relationships with much of EU is already extremely bad due to the corruption and ultra-conservative politics of Hungary under his leadership. So there might not be much for him to gain in trying to appease west, and allowing Finland to join NATO could very well ruin his relationship with his former strongest ally.
I'm sure there's a ton of backroom diplomacy and armwrestling going on that's not public knowledge over this topic.
There's speculation that if Hungary declares (unofficially) that it won't let new countries join NATO, Finland and Sweden will hold back their applications so the infighting in NATO doesn't become public, as now is not a good time for that.
It's also worth noting that the current Finnish coalition government includes pretty much all the most NATO-sceptical parties, while the most pro-NATO major parties are in the opposition. The tradition of Finnish politics suggests that in a massive longterm decision like this, a lot of effort is put into trying to find a large consensus that surpasses current government-opposition lines though, and in general I think the public atmosphere is such that refusing to send in a NATO application might be political suicide.
(But there's also some big domestic issues that the government is occupied with.)
I think Orban would cave to pressure from the rest of NATO.
Side question though, but would there be anything stopping Sweden and Finland from allying with NATO directly, while not actually being members... like a parallel agreement that offers virtually the same protection as Article 5?
Another thing to consider is that Sweden has considered producing their own nuclear deterrents in the past. It was 1972 that they shut down the program, but many people believe that they have kept the door open enough that they could produce nuclear weapons within 1 year if they ever changed their minds. If they can't can't rely on NATO's nuclear umbrella, they may just decide that the non-proliferation treaty isn't worth the paper it's written on.
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"A pessimist thinks things can't get any worse. An optimist knows they can."
…and it’s only a bit of NATO lady. Imagine if they really tried. Best you learn your lesson and not do something to really piss off “the one true power”.
They've essentially lost to NATO's bits of extra stuff that they left in mom's basement and decided to drop off at Ukraine's backyard.
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Side question though, but would there be anything stopping Sweden and Finland from allying with NATO directly, while not actually being members... like a parallel agreement that offers virtually the same protection as Article 5?
I'm no expert on that, but I can't imagine there being anything stopping that. Countries can write up any contracts they want, and yeah other military alliances are being thrown around as an option.
Something that affects these discussion is that we're living in a post-Trump era, where US is now one election away from doing a full 180 on their foreign policy. Hell, pre-Ukraine they were seen by many as being close to a new civil war. Basically, US is not seen as a terribly reliable ally, and there's two reactions to that.
Some think it's exactly why we need to specifically get into NATO. Article 5 is seen as one of the strongest promises of protection there is. (I'm not sure that's true, but that's another matter). Some on the other hand sees that as a reason to not bother with NATO. After all, an ally that betrays your trust at a moment of need can be worse than not having an ally.
Plus of course Finland has a very long tradition of neutrality, and a lot of people are reluctant to give that up. There's questions whether or not we'd be dragged into being part of the next stupid war US gets itself into, like Afghanistan or Iraq.
However, I would say this whole thing is more about symbolism right now, and that's why I think there's a pretty good chance Finland ends up in NATO one way or the other. Finland (and Sweden) joining NATO in this situation would just be so powerful symbolically. Internationally others want it to happen because it would be such on obvious loss for Putin, and one that he can't hide from his own people.
Here in Finland, it's a lot about not bowing down to bullies. Every threat Russia makes is converting more people to a pro-NATO position, and Russia has made some threat on this topic probably every week.
Those threats are basically why I've (very reluctantly) started to be pro-NATO myself. Putin is just not leaving us with other options.
...which is just another reason that makes me extremely worried about the future. Putin and his regime are acting completely insane in so many fronts, and doing so many stupid, counter-productive things.
It would make absolutely no sense for Putin to attack yet another country or use nuclear weapons, but so much of what he's been doing doesn't make sense that who knows what's going to happen :/
Last edited by Itse; 04-16-2022 at 03:40 PM.
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I have read a lot about Russia's demographic problems and this video summarizes a lot of that information:
There is obviously a lot of information that you have to take at face value to accept the premise... I don't think many people here have the time or resources to fact check it all. I suspect the facts are correct, but I guess you could argue the conclusions.
Anyway, it does explain the question of why Russia is making this move now. The person making the video said that this war will be the last major conventional war Russia can wage unless they somehow fix their demographic problems, which likely won't be for a few generations. Keep in mind this was posted during the military build up and not after the war began.
Edit: After re-watching, the later part of the video was from before the invasion, but the first part was obviously after.
I was interested and watched several others of his lectures as well as reading comments and his background sources and I'm not convinced. I think he's got some good points and starting data but he has a penchant for hyperbole and dramatic prognostication.
In his other lecture, he's also saying that China is "done" and will be "horrific" by 2030 because of a demographic collapse from one-child policies.
Russia and China will both have demographic pressures but nothing to the extent that this guy is predicting. His underlying information is also super flawed, he makes easily disprovable claims such as Gorbachov being from the KGB and extrapolates that Russia is only ruled and can only be ruled by a pool of 150 people from the KGB and are doomed as a nation because of that.
It's an attractive message if you are hoping for Ukrainian success but take it with a grain of salt. Both the Russian and Chinese nations will be here as influential powers for decades to come.
Last edited by Hack&Lube; 04-17-2022 at 02:15 AM.
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I was interested and watched several others of his lectures as well as reading comments and his background sources and I'm not convinced. I think he's got some good points and starting data but he has a penchant for hyperbole and dramatic prognostication.
In his other lecture, he's also saying that China is "done" and will be "horrific" by 2030 because of a demographic collapse from one-child policies.
Russia and China will both have demographic pressures but nothing to the extent that this guy is predicting. His underlying information is also super flawed, he makes easily disprovable claims such as Gorchov being from the KGB and extrapolates that Russia is only ruled and can only be ruled by a pool of 150 people from the KGB and are doomed as a nation because of that.
It's an attractive message if you are hoping for Ukrainian success but take it with a grain of salt. Both the Russian and Chinese nations will be here as influential powers for decades to come.
The prognostication is a little dramatic, especially when it comes to China. Not enough people, or people of draftable age, isn't a problem for them especially if they stay out of conflicts. I can see his predictions about Russia being more accurate though, especially when you factor in emigration and relatively low rates of immigration.
He did however say in 2014 that if Russia couldn't successfully bring Ukraine under their sphere of control, that they would have to conquer them in 8 years. That prognostication was pretty spot on.
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"A pessimist thinks things can't get any worse. An optimist knows they can."
The video from a week or so ago showing the Ukrainian workshop fixing and repairing captured gear was shelled yesterday or today. Seems evident that the video allowed Russia to geolocate the facility and got a bunch of people killed. Graphic photos so proceed with caution.
Russians issued a deadline for Mariupol defenders to the remaining pocket of Ukrainians at Azovstal steelworks plant or face annihilation. Ukrainian said no. Mariupol is expected to fall "soon" if Ukrainians can't shift to offensive operations fast enough due to lack of heavy weapons which are likely still weeks out from deployment.
Apparently the Ukrainians are staging a counter attack from Kharkiv to threaten Russian supply lines. Mariupul as much as it is a symbol is fairly meaningless. The troops it freed up would mostly be worn out already and need time to regroup and refresh.
