Tidbits from THN's Future Watch

[GioforPM]

Originally Posted by Strange Brew

Thanks. This list seems a little more current than others than I had seen which still had a guy like Pettersen in top 10.

Mackey at 9 is interesting. The guy does look like an NHLer and he probably still has room to grow. He maybe deserves a little better even if you believe his ceiling is limited.

That's always the debate - ceiling versus chances of playing a fairly regular role. If you aks me who will play more NHL games - Walker Duehr or Matthew Philips, I'd probably lean Duehr.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Also of note Emil Heineman was listed as #7 on the Habs list, which is generally a weak prospect pool overall, with only 2 (Guhle #16, and Primeau #95) in the top 100.
Their 3rd ranked prospect is Logan Mailloux who should not have been drafted at all.

[Jiri Hrdina]

Originally Posted by Sandman

Beat me to the punch, Jiri! As a guy who been a subscriber to THN since the mid-90's, I can honestly say that they've really gone downhill in recent years. The Future Watch and Draft Preview issues are always something I look forward to, but I keep finding more and more that they're out to lunch. Just my opinion.

I really can't see a Flames top-10 without Kerins, Phillips, and in my opinion-one of Beck or Francis. I also firmly believe that we are higher than 20th in the league. For everyone who doubts Stromgren, just remember-he's not yet even 19 years old. He was 31st in league scoring for players 18-and-under, and he's currently tied for Rogle's lead in playoff scoring, with 4 pts in 6 games. He has size, speed, and skill, and it's way too early to give up on him.

There's no question that THN has gone downhill. They simply don't have the same depth of coverage. And you see that in issues such as this, where the lists seem to rank a lot based on elements such as draft pedigree, and less on recent performance. So I suspect every team has prospects like Kerins who have popped since they were drafted, and don't show up on these lists.

It is hard to find strong prospect coverage. So given the lack of a single strong source of information, I try to read what I can across THN, Hockey Writers, Dobber, Athletic, etc. And I enjoy reading different perspectives.

For me the Flames have a very clear top 4. And then they have a very long list of about 10-12 more guys, that you can really debate the order of.

[looooob]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Yeah it's never a straight line.

Just picked our 2015 Prospect Poll summary as an example ...

8.5 NHL players on the list, but 5 of them coming after the 9th prospect.

yeah. my guess is that 2 of the top 3 names (the former first rounders) will hit, as well as one or two of the ones that are in the top 10 or 12 discussion


but somewhere below the surface is a Ferland, Kulak, Lomberg, Hathaway, Brossoit, (heck maybe even Mangiapane qualifies here). if I recall at some point these guys were all so far off the radar they were being ranked by whomever was still awake- I guess your mileage may vary as to whether all of these guys have had careers that matter- but most have even if they aren't impact players (beyond Mangiapane I just can't remember how low he started)

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by looooob

yeah. my guess is that 2 of the top 3 names (the former first rounders) will hit, as well as one or two of the ones that are in the top 10 or 12 discussion


but somewhere below the surface is a Ferland, Kulak, Lomberg, Hathaway, Brossoit, (heck maybe even Mangiapane qualifies here). if I recall at some point these guys were all so far off the radar they were being ranked by whomever was still awake- I guess your mileage may vary as to whether all of these guys have had careers that matter- but most have even if they aren't impact players (beyond Mangiapane I just can't remember how low he started)

Mangiapane was 21st in 2015

Kylington 10th
Andersson 13th

All their first years in the rankings.

[TheScorpion]

If Phillips doesn't make the Flames out of camp next year, he'll be waived and claimed and given a shot by a team with far less depth.

Duehr likely doesn't play another game. He just isn't impactful enough in the A by any measure and he's older than Phillips.

[Lanny_McDonald]

You are making an assumption that the Flames resign Phillips this summer. Unless Sutter retires this summer, or the Flames lose a number of players in the top six, would the Flames resign a player that doesn't seem to be in their plans? Pelletier is likely to make the jump next season, so adding another tiny player to a roster Sutter and Treliving retooled to add beef seems unlikely. That is one reason why Duehr still has a shot. He's a big body and skates well, so can fill that need the Flames are obviously more invested in. Size has become more important for this team.

[TheScorpion]

Lol, if the Flames willingly decide against re-signing the only U25 player in the AHL's top 10 in scoring then I wouldn't really know what to say. Would be pretty confusing asset management!

They're signing Phillips. Tre likes him. Mitch Love likes him. Not doing so would be an act of sabotage against the Heat, at the very least.

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Lol, if the Flames willingly decide against re-signing the only U25 player in the AHL's top 10 in scoring then I wouldn't really know what to say. Would be pretty confusing asset management!

They're signing Phillips. Tre likes him. Mitch Love likes him. Not doing so would be an act of sabotage against the Heat, at the very least.

Yeah short of Phillips demanding a one way deal he's coming back.

[Two Fivenagame]

Originally Posted by Bingo

Yeah short of Phillips demanding a one way deal he's coming back.

...I see what you did there

[Flamesfan74]

Read the title too fast and thought it said Timbits.

[Sandman]

Originally Posted by Jiri Hrdina

There's no question that THN has gone downhill. They simply don't have the same depth of coverage. And you see that in issues such as this, where the lists seem to rank a lot based on elements such as draft pedigree, and less on recent performance. So I suspect every team has prospects like Kerins who have popped since they were drafted, and don't show up on these lists.

It is hard to find strong prospect coverage. So given the lack of a single strong source of information, I try to read what I can across THN, Hockey Writers, Dobber, Athletic, etc. And I enjoy reading different perspectives.

For me the Flames have a very clear top 4. And then they have a very long list of about 10-12 more guys, that you can really debate the order of.

Totally agree. No two lists are likely to be the same, we all have different opinions on each player, just like every pundit has a different perspective. Like you, I just digest everything I see and read-and I really look for anything I can find.

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Lol, if the Flames willingly decide against re-signing the only U25 player in the AHL's top 10 in scoring then I wouldn't really know what to say. Would be pretty confusing asset management!

They're signing Phillips. Tre likes him. Mitch Love likes him. Not doing so would be an act of sabotage against the Heat, at the very least.

How does not signing a player with no NHL future sabotage the team? The goal for the Heat is to develop future NHL players, not keep career AHLers content and employed. Your fandom for Matthew Phillips is getting in the way here. If the Flames are not willing to use a callup on him when he is "crushing the AHL" what exactly do you think the future is for him? The Flames team got bigger and tougher to play against, to great success. Phillips is a step towards the things Sutter wanted changed. Unless Sutter retires and Johnny Gaudreau signs elsewhere, there just isn't room on the roster for another tiny player.

Originally Posted by Bingo

Yeah short of Phillips demanding a one way deal he's coming back.

What are the odds of the player not demanding a one-way contract? If you were Phillips would you take a two-way deal? That would all but guarantee he is a career AHLer, unable to force his way onto the roster by contract status. That's why I question whether the Flames sign him again. I don't see him as anything but a minor leaguer, so the Flames have a choice to make about spending an one-way contract on a player with no NHL future with the team. I would think Treliving is a guy that can look down the road and see where his prospects are headed and not waste a contract if he doesn't have to.

[Cali Panthers Fan]

If I may sum up Lanny's argument...ahem:

Phillips=Small
Small=BAD!

[TheScorpion]

Imagine wasting a contract on a player who had 28 goals and 62 points in 57 AHL games in his age-23 season, I don't know if I'd even be able to sleep at night if I did that.

Also a one-way/two-way deal would have very little to do with Phillips' ability to force his way onto the roster. He'd have the same cap hit either way and one-way deals have nothing to do with waiver status.

[Reggie Dunlop]

Hoping to see a NCAA Free Agent signed given the draft pick sparsity

[Lanny_McDonald]

Originally Posted by TheScorpion

Imagine wasting a contract on a player who had 28 goals and 62 points in 57 AHL games in his age-23 season, I don't know if I'd even be able to sleep at night if I did that.

Wouldn't be the first time it happened. Toronto let Jeremy Bracco walk away when his deal expired and didn't want to extend him. When you see a dead end for a player you sometimes make the pragmatic choice and cut him loose.

Also a one-way/two-way deal would have very little to do with Phillips' ability to force his way onto the roster. He'd have the same cap hit either way and one-way deals have nothing to do with waiver status.

Who gives a #### about waiver status? Waiver status is irrelevant. The one-way deal is a move to force the team to give the player a shot, because who wants to pay an AHL player $750K+ for playing in the AHL? If Phillips demands a one-way deal, it's a powerplay to try and force the hand of the team, because the Flames are not a team that routinely pays minor league players NHL salaries.

[TheScorpion]

Jeremy Bracco had four goals in 44 games in his last AHL season.

Phillips is one of the best finishers in the A and plays with significantly more grit than Bracco, who was a pure finesse perimeter player.

I'm sorry, Lanny, but you constantly accuse me of being biased in favour of this player when the only number that doesn't go in his favour is his height, which is the one you constantly glom onto. I am also not the one who makes definitive proclamations about him, as you do ("he is NOT an NHL player"). I only say he should get a shot, and if it doesn't work out, you move on. Tre said basically exactly that on the radio last month.

If anyone is biased about this player, it's you. I have stayed pretty measured about him. I am not penciling him in as a top line guy in the NHL. I say there's a chance he could help out a team's third line. I also recognize there's a chance he tops out in the AHL. You completely eviscerate him every chance you get, with his size the only weapon you have at your disposal. Who is using more nuance?

[Lanny_McDonald]

Who do the Flames bump to make room for Phillips? What's his path to the NHL look like? Unless Gaudreau or Mangiapane disappears from the lineup, who gets bumped for what would be the smallest player in the NHL? Pelletier has a much better chance of making the jump next year. How does Phillips make it to the show with the Flames? He's run out of runway.

[TheScorpion]

I completely agree that he's not making it with the Flames, although I completely disagree with your mindset that there's only room for him if Gaudreau leaves.

I think his path to the NHL is not making the Flames next year, being waived, and getting claimed. Which, given his production, he probably would.

I just find it laughable to dismiss a 5'8" guy who's arguably the most productive AHL prospect there is when a 5'4" guy with similar AHL numbers carved out a legit career. I do not know how many times I have to repeat this: you cannot say he's not an NHL player until he gets a chance. And he hasn't gotten that chance.

(I don't need to hear the reply about how Phillips is 165 pounds and very few guys that weight make it, you've already posted it three times before and my response still hasn't changed. Give him a chance to prove he's too small and too light instead of just assuming it based on your own biases and conjecture. Peace out.)