Recent Depth Scoring

[Bingo]

Didn't want to bury this in a pre game topic

Lots of discussion on depth scoring of late, and Enoch's comment about of course the second and third line is streaky if they weren't they'd be top lines, which I think was spot on.

But to add some numbers to it I thought I'd look at individual expected goals vs actual goals for the big four depth scorers by month this season vs the last 4 games.

Numbers five on five.

Backlund

Should have scored 11.6 goals to date and has 10.0.
March he should have had 2.1 and had 4.0
Last 4 games should have 0.5, has zero
Yearly average xG/Game 0.17, last 4 games 0.12

Things rolling on pretty consistently. Chance rates slightly off.

Coleman

Should have scored 15.3 goals to date and has 12.0.
March he should have had 2.3 and had 2.0
Last 4 games should have 0.7, has zero
Yearly average xG/Game 0.22, last 4 games 0.18

Things rolling on pretty consistently. Chance rates slightly off.

Mangiapane

Should have scored 13.9 goals to date and has 20
March he should have had 2.0 and had 2.0
Last 4 games should have 1.1, has zero
Yearly average xG/Game 0.20, last 4 games 0.26

Has always scored above his chance rate, has been a bit unlucky in the last four.

Toffoli

Should have scored 8.7 goals to date and has 5.0.
March he should have had 2.2 and had 1.0
Last 4 games should have 0.8, has zero
Yearly average xG/Game 0.14, last 4 games 0.20

Getting chances at a greater rate than he has. Hasn't scored of late.

Bottom line there really isn't much of a sag overall for chance generation. Backlund and Coleman are generating a bit less (not alarming), Mangiapane and Toffoli have actually had an uptick in the last four games but aren't getting rewarded.

Certainly suggests they are due, and it's not something to worry about beyond if you were worried before the last four games about depth scoring anyway.

[Erick Estrada]

It's better for them to be in a down cycle now than the beginning of the playoffs. These four forwards will be key to advancing deep into the playoffs as depth is key.

[Bingo]

And luckily there is another wave too ... greater uncertainty, but Jarnkrok and Dube are next up as guys that could contribute. Ruzicka wave four.

[SuperMatt18]

I still think the middle 6 is missing a puck distributor, and I think it's why we are seeing some streakiness from our finishers.

Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk are great, and you have two guys that distribute the puck really well in 13 and 19. But by putting those two on the same line that means the middle six is lacking, and I'm not sure we have a middle 6 forward that I'd classify as a "Playmaker"

Backlund
Coleman
Mangiapane
Toffoli
Jarnkrok
Dube

Backlund is the only one of that group that's ever had more than 30 assists in a season, and even then I don't consider him a great playmaker.

We have a lot of puck hounds in the middle 6, and lots of guys that are good 200 ft forwards, but no real playmakers IMO.

[dino7c]

They are all due

[Bingo]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I still think the middle 6 is missing a puck distributor, and I think it's why we are seeing some streakiness from our finishers.

Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk are great, and you have two guys that distribute the puck really well in 13 and 19. But by putting those two on the same line that means the middle six is lacking, and I'm not sure we have a middle 6 forward that I'd classify as a "Playmaker"

Backlund
Coleman
Mangiapane
Toffoli
Jarnkrok
Dube

Backlund is the only one of that group that's ever had more than 30 assists in a season, and even then I don't consider him a great playmaker.

We have a lot of puck hounds in the middle 6, and lots of guys that are good 200 ft forwards, but no real playmakers IMO.

Absolutely ...

And I'd argue they should swap Coleman and Toffoli again since the current construct isn't working.

I was just trying to assess if the depth guys were slumping in chances or in finish.

If it's the former they're not playing well. If it's the latter they're due.

[Stanley]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

I still think the middle 6 is missing a puck distributor, and I think it's why we are seeing some streakiness from our finishers.

Gaudreau-Lindholm-Tkachuk are great, and you have two guys that distribute the puck really well in 13 and 19. But by putting those two on the same line that means the middle six is lacking, and I'm not sure we have a middle 6 forward that I'd classify as a "Playmaker"

Backlund
Coleman
Mangiapane
Toffoli
Jarnkrok
Dube

Backlund is the only one of that group that's ever had more than 30 assists in a season, and even then I don't consider him a great playmaker.

We have a lot of puck hounds in the middle 6, and lots of guys that are good 200 ft forwards, but no real playmakers IMO.

Agreed. Chucky and Backs have always played well together, I wouldn't necessarily change up the top line since they're on a roll but would sometimes like to see shifts where Chuck heads out with Backs' line and dishes pucks to them...

Also think Toff and Coleman should swap. I liked the look of Dube/Ruzi/Toff despite small sample size

[Stanley]

Toffoli seems to have regressed a bit imo. He certainly seemed to look faster when he was a Hab...or his snipes just masked his slow skating. He's at least been getting some looks...

[SuperMatt18]

Toffoli was playing with Suzuki in Montreal who is pretty quick himself, and is also a great distributor of the puck.

If you aren't the most fleet of foot then having a good playmaker can really be key, because quick passing can overcome the lack of foot speed.

Problem with our middle six right now is that a lot of it is either trying to carry the puck yourself into the zone, or dumping it in and trying to grind it out to create a chance.

Not a lot of quick passing to open up space in transition and find room for the finisher to finish.

[Stanley]

Originally Posted by SuperMatt18

Toffoli was playing with Suzuki in Montreal who is pretty quick himself, and is also a great distributor of the puck.

If you aren't the most fleet of foot then having a good playmaker can really be key, because quick passing can overcome the lack of foot speed.

Problem with our middle six right now is that a lot of it is either trying to carry the puck yourself into the zone, or dumping it in and trying to grind it out to create a chance.

Not a lot of quick passing to open up space in transition and find room for the finisher to finish.

Yea true.
I wish Mange was a better distributor but that's not his game at all...

[camm13]

Mang is a pretty good passer... it's just that he spent the majority of the season with backs and coleman, two guys who aren't good at finishing..