Russia invades Ukraine

[undercoverbrother]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

They have warehouses full of tanks and artillery.

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Rumors that their storage is in pretty rough shape and probably picked clean by corruption.

T-34 come on down!!!!!

[JohnnyB]

A big deal is made of the threat of WW3, but it's also that 3/5 permanent members of the Security Council have their own interests best served by not advocating for more direct international military engagement in Ukraine. US strategic interests are very well served by the current situation and they have little benefit in getting involved more than they currently are. China likely sees substantial strategic benefit to peace in Ukraine, but they're stuck in a hard place between conflicting strategic interests and would have no real benefit getting involved militarily either way while having lots to lose from anything more than diplomatic engagement. Russia obviously doesn't want the UN Security Council involved, and with that you've got 3/5 permanent members with no interest in direct military engagement.

Zelensky is right to call them out and to do his part to advocate for the interests of Ukraine, but without big powers having strategic interests aligned with the support he wants, it's not going to come easily. Still, it's probably better that the world's diplomats have a place to get together and maintain relations with each other even if it doesn't often lead to actions transcending national strategic interests.

[Sidney Crosby's Hat]

Originally Posted by Hemi-Cuda

So realistically how much longer can Russia keep this up? Their casualties are in the 10's of thousands and their equipment losses must be in the hundreds of millions, are they in danger of running out of equipment or soldiers with actual training anytime soon?

You wonder about some other factors like their airlines can't fly to any countries that have imposed sanctions because otherwise their planes will be seized. Plus, they can't get replacement air parts so eventually they'll have no functioning airlines within their country.

Then there's the Moscow Stock Exchange which probably can't fully reopen until the war is over. Plus the borrowing power of Russia going into the toilet.

Those are just a handful of examples that show this can't go on for years.

[PeteMoss]

Originally Posted by JohnnyB

A big deal is made of the threat of WW3, but it's also that 3/5 permanent members of the Security Council have their own interests best served by not advocating for more direct international military engagement in Ukraine. US strategic interests are very well served by the current situation and they have little benefit in getting involved more than they currently are. China likely sees substantial strategic benefit to peace in Ukraine, but they're stuck in a hard place between conflicting strategic interests and would have no real benefit getting involved militarily either way while having lots to lose from anything more than diplomatic engagement. Russia obviously doesn't want the UN Security Council involved, and with that you've got 3/5 permanent members with no interest in direct military engagement.

Zelensky is right to call them out and to do his part to advocate for the interests of Ukraine, but without big powers having strategic interests aligned with the support he wants, it's not going to come easily. Still, it's probably better that the world's diplomats have a place to get together and maintain relations with each other even if it doesn't often lead to actions transcending national strategic interests.

The way it's set-up now - it essentially useless for anything involving the 5 veto countries. I guess its a question of if that is effective or not.

[CroFlames]

Funny how things work, aren't they? I think most people would trade Russia and China for Germany and Japan to be on the SC permanently in a heartbeat.



But they ####ed around and found out last century and now here we are.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by PeteMoss

The way it's set-up now - it essentially useless for anything involving the 5 veto countries. I guess its a question of if that is effective or not.

It is pretty much useless as far as forming resolutions that are going to contravene their interests. Not sure it's useless in at least facilitating diplomatic dialogue between a broad range of nations though. That may be an all talk, no action situation, but that's probably still better than no talk, no action situation.

[JohnnyB]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Funny how things work, aren't they? I think most people would trade Russia and China for Germany and Japan to be on the SC permanently in a heartbeat.



But they ####ed around and found out last century and now here we are.

In the West that might make people happy, but that's hardly most people and hardly represents the world. If anything, a situation in which every permanent member was home to at least one US military base would probably delegitimize the body even further in most of the world's eyes. Having something like the US, China, India, Brazil, Nigeria, and Germany would be much more representative of global/regional big players' interests.

[FlameOn]

New York Times publishes satellite photos it obtained of the civilian bodies Russian troops killed remaining there until Ukrainians showed up directly contradicting Russian claims that this was "staged".

Of course Putin/Lavrov/brainwashed Russians will continue to deny the Russian military's war crimes without evidence as always.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/04/w...ne-bodies.html

[Hemi-Cuda]

Appears that a Russian KA-52 pilot may have defected to Ukraine

https://twitter.com/MrKovalenko/stat...59412971216902

[FlameOn]

Yea Russians using more conscripts is gonna cost them in equipment. Conscripts only pay $300/mo, and Ukraine offering $100K for a Tank, $500K for choppers, $1M for a fighter now. I'm sure there will be more bites soon.

[calculoso]

Originally Posted by CroFlames

Funny how things work, aren't they? I think most people would trade Russia and China for Germany and Japan to be on the SC permanently in a heartbeat.

There should be a rule where if you’re directly involved, you’re forced to abstain from every decision. Doesn’t matter if it is USA in Iraq or Russia in Ukraine or China in Hong Kong /Taiwan. You lose your vote if you do something that causes the UN to act

[CaptainCrunch]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Rumors that their storage is in pretty rough shape and probably picked clean by corruption.

Could be.



There are vast warehouses all over Russia, that are stocked with everything, including stuff like WW1 artillary pieces. WW2 tanks, everything.


I mean we talk about the losses to the Russians which are horrendous. But the Ukrainian Army is in a precarious spot two as they're not being re-enforced, and while small arms and things like man portable tank and anti-aircraft missiles are coming in, Their heavy equipment stocks have to be low, and their troop numbers have to be dwindling as well.

[Firebot]

Ukraine has captured more heavy equipment intact from Russia then they have lost

In fact, they are even using TOS-1A thermobaric systems against Russian positions. They are very rare, only around 50 in the world, and Ukraine is using them because several fell in their hands. And they even have tons of missiles for it courtesy of Putin.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1511337378035679244

Obviously Ukraine needs a lot more heavy equipment especially if it intends to go on a Donbas offensive, but Russia is losing insane amounts of equipment, many of which cannot be replaced. The level of aircraft attrition rate can only last another month or two at best.

[burn_this_city]

Crazy twitter thread of the wreckage at Antonov/Hostomel Airport.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1511420317893373961

Hellscape of destroyed Russian vehicles.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1511434992601206786

[peter12]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

T-34 come on down!!!!!

Have we seen any T-55s deployed yet?

[CaptainCrunch]

Did see a video a couple of weeks back of T-55's on rail cars

[Locke]

Originally Posted by undercoverbrother

T-34 come on down!!!!!

As I recall that worked out pretty well last time.

[peter12]

Originally Posted by CaptainCrunch

Did see a video a couple of weeks back of T-55's on rail cars

That would be pretty incredible.

[Pizza]

another "haw HAW" moment

Russian bombers bombed the Russian 36th separate Motorized rifle brigade by accident, leading to significant losses to the unit (in Ukrainian)

https://www.dialog.ua/war/249349_1649152568

[Hack&Lube]

Originally Posted by burn_this_city

Crazy twitter thread of the wreckage at Antonov/Hostomel Airport.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1511420317893373961

Hellscape of destroyed Russian vehicles.

https://twitter.com/user/status/1511434992601206786

I think metal scrap dealer is going to be a very lucrative profession in future years.