Real estate in Calgary - another bubble?

[Slava]

Originally Posted by Yoho

I think the price is catching the eye of this market analyst who traditionally sees Calgary real estate market as a foot mat to Vancouver and Toronto.

“Market analyst” is a bit of a misnomer though. He is indeed a CFA charter holder, but not specifically real estate. Irrespective, a 2000 square foot bungalow that almost surely has a finished basement being over $1m doesn’t seem that mispriced depending on the location?

[accord1999]

I've been logging real estate listing prices for a few years and I don't think there's been much of a boom in actual transactions for the $1+M market. For example, 151 Hampstead Way Northwest was listed at $1.285M in May 2021 and eventually went down to $1.175M with no buyers. Relisted in February at $1.285M again but still no buyers and already down to $1.178M.

[Yoho]

Originally Posted by Slava

“Market analyst” is a bit of a misnomer though. He is indeed a CFA charter holder, but not specifically real estate. Irrespective, a 2000 square foot bungalow that almost surely has a finished basement being over $1m doesn’t seem that mispriced depending on the location?

I think he’s surprised by the prices, doesn’t mean you as someone who lives here is. And I agree call him whatever you would like, he often comments on Vancouver and Toronto housing.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Slava

What’s happening? I might be slow, but is the comment that those houses are older so they can’t be worth that much?

It's not too difficult to find the listing on realtor.ca by filtering by price. The top left one is a large home in the nicer area of Lake Bonivista:

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/2...lake-bonavista

The one on the right is located on a quarter acre lot in Varsity Estates and is totally renovated, including with higher end appliances and heated floors:

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/2...algary-varsity

The prices of those homes have probably risen, but nothing crazy.

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by blankall

It's not too difficult to find the listing on realtor.ca by filtering by price. The top left one is a large home in the nicer area of Lake Bonivista:

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/2...lake-bonavista

The one on the right is located on a quarter acre lot in Varsity Estates and is totally renovated, including with higher end appliances and heated floors:

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/2...algary-varsity

The prices of those homes have probably risen, but nothing crazy.

Didn’t know this was a thing.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Weitz

Didn’t know this was a thing.

Really? Even in the 90s there were areas that were quite expensive with relatively large lots and homes. A lot large executive style homes here, and you could build much bigger than places like Elbow Park.

The house in the listing is one block off the lake. It's a very affluent area. As you go east Bonavista turns into Queensland pretty quickly, which isn't as nice.

Edit: I get jokes.

[jayswin]

Of course Lake Boanvista has nice areas and homes. You'd have to have almost never set foot in the community to not know that.

[topfiverecords]

The closer you get to Sliver’s the higher the price.

[Dion]

Originally Posted by _Q_

Maybe, what we should be doing, is creating opportunities for new immigrants to move to smaller cities rather than Toronto and Vancouver.

Why not try to get people to live in Halifax, Lethbridge, Moncton, etc. As it stands, it seems like all economic activity is centered around BC and the GTA.

High River has a large immigrant population already. Many work for Cargill or in our fast food resturants and small businesses.

[boogerz]

Originally Posted by blankall

It's not too difficult to find the listing on realtor.ca by filtering by price. The top left one is a large home in the nicer area of Lake Bonivista:

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/2...lake-bonavista

The one on the right is located on a quarter acre lot in Varsity Estates and is totally renovated, including with higher end appliances and heated floors:

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/2...algary-varsity

The prices of those homes have probably risen, but nothing crazy.

Yea, it was already $1M+ to get into a nice and fully renovated home in Varsity Estates before the pandemic.

Even the Bridgeland tear-down at $1.05M isn't too overpriced. Good view, deep lot, inner-city, and located an already gentrified/trendy community. If you tear it down and spend another $800k putting up a detached executive home with an attached garage, the total cost wouldn't be too far off what that kind of house usually costs in the inner-city.

The only real crack price in the four houses from that Twitter post is the Scarboro house, which the market agrees with given the 121 DoM.

These out of province "analysts" and investors trying to pump our housing market is already getting really tiresome

[Weitz]

Originally Posted by blankall

Really? Even in the 90s there were areas that were quite expensive with relatively large lots and homes. A lot large executive style homes here, and you could build much bigger than places like Elbow Park.

The house in the listing is one block off the lake. It's a very affluent area. As you go east Bonavista turns into Queensland pretty quickly, which isn't as nice.

It was more of a play on the Silver thing. Must have been poor.

I’ve never been to that community though.

[calgarygeologist]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

The closer you get to Sliver’s the higher the price.

I thought it was the opposite effect.

[Sliver]

Originally Posted by topfiverecords

The closer you get to Sliver’s the higher the price.

Nah, I'm a man of the people. I'm allowed to visit the estate area, but that's as close as I get.

[Jay's Beagle]

Originally Posted by Fuzz

I'm not sure if this is the best way, but you can look up land titles here:
https://alta.registries.gov.ab.ca/spinii/logon.aspx


They are almost a month behind processing. Login as guest, then click search on the top. Then "search by street address" works the quickest. This gets you close, then use the i icon in a circle with the arrow on the bottom toolbar to get the pop up, then click the tiny icon in the view column to see the land title. Super easy!

I thought to bring this post by fuzz back up again as it was super interesting and helpful.

[Yoho]

https://twitter.com/user/status/1510175818533769217

[Enoch Root]

Originally Posted by Slava

What’s happening? I might be slow, but is the comment that those houses are older so they can’t be worth that much?

The house on the top right is listed for $667/sqft, which is ridiculous

But the one on the bottom right - a 50 year old home that is being reno'ed is listed at $910/sqft

That isn't ridiculous, that is beyond even being a joke. Half that would be ridiculous.

My home in Signal Hill (which is WAY nicer than any of these things, like not even in the same universe - city view, fully reno'ed, 10 minutes from downtown, etc) would probably go for $400-450/sqft right now. Maybe someone desperate pays $500. Those homes in that tweet are insane.

[Harry Lime]

The issue isn't so much looking at fair value for homes respective to other jurisdictions, or even recent historical sales, it's that the availability of homes at under $350K is almost non-existent. The only opportunities to get into the market at this price point are apartment style condos, or properties with extenuating circumstances. Working class Canadians are being turned into a sub-class. This changes the basic structure of a kids upbringing significantly from what 'we' were used to growing up. There seems to be a level of segregation that we are building into our communities that wasn't there 20 years ago.

You can't even move out of the city to upgrade your home. Commuter towns outside of Calgary and Edmonton are pretty much priced the same way now. Smaller cities in BC are priced at Calgary prices, so Kamloops and Vernon are priced out for most people wanting a detached home with a backyard for the kids.

It feels as if a way of life is being exterminated.

[Mazrim]

Today marks month number 9 for my house search. The positive right now is after a period of pretty intense inflation and everything going way over asking, the price range I'm in (which I'll admit has climbed an uncomfortable amount since the start of the search) is sort of stabilizing for the moment. Houses are still going quickly, but there's less going with no conditions and a lot more going right around asking price. Maybe that's more about the quality of these places then the market, but I'll mark it a positive for now.

The negative is that I'm getting the impression that investors are making this way harder than it has to be for everyone in Calgary. Great news for people looking to get some more value on their properties, but good luck finding a house after selling. My wife and I have been pretty patient so far but the grind is starting to wear us down. The search area we had set has slowly grown every month, and we're giving up on more and more things we wanted in the hopes of getting some hits.

[blankall]

Originally Posted by Enoch Root

The house on the top right is listed for $667/sqft, which is ridiculous

But the one on the bottom right - a 50 year old home that is being reno'ed is listed at $910/sqft

That isn't ridiculous, that is beyond even being a joke. Half that would be ridiculous.

My home in Signal Hill (which is WAY nicer than any of these things, like not even in the same universe - city view, fully reno'ed, 10 minutes from downtown, etc) would probably go for $400-450/sqft right now. Maybe someone desperate pays $500. Those homes in that tweet are insane.

As far as bottom right goes, the properties with clear views of downtown have always sold for large amounts.

https://www.realtor.ca/real-estate/2...algary-renfrew

It's 2-3 kms from Downtown. Clear views of the core. Even during the dips these places were going for north of $800k.

I see what the realtor is trying to do, but he's picked really bad examples. All of which have a major selling point, which is going to move them out of the regular low value category.

IMO the much more alarming trend is the $400-500k houses shooting up in value by $2-300k. These are what formerly were entry level houses for middle class people. Not so much anymore.

[topfiverecords]

Originally Posted by Mazrim

Today marks month number 9 for my house search. The positive right now is after a period of pretty intense inflation and everything going way over asking, the price range I'm in (which I'll admit has climbed an uncomfortable amount since the start of the search) is sort of stabilizing for the moment. Houses are still going quickly, but there's less going with no conditions and a lot more going right around asking price. Maybe that's more about the quality of these places then the market, but I'll mark it a positive for now.

The negative is that I'm getting the impression that investors are making this way harder than it has to be for everyone in Calgary. Great news for people looking to get some more value on their properties, but good luck finding a house after selling. My wife and I have been pretty patient so far but the grind is starting to wear us down. The search area we had set has slowly grown every month, and we're giving up on more and more things we wanted in the hopes of getting some hits.

Only 9 months? We’re on year 4. I keep joking to our agent that pretty soon we’re going to start asking to see assisted living places instead.