Thanks for the update HW. That story of the text messages spammed out is utterly disgusting and shows how despicable the Russian tactics are. Good wishes to you and yours, and here's hoping that everyone gets through this untouched.
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If Russians want to continue this war they will need more manpower because right now they are actually outnumbered in Ukraine. Russians sent in roughly 200K troops for this offensive but have lost 40K-50K at this point in casualties by most estimates. The Ukrainians have around 200K in regular forces, 100K in paramilitary forces, and 800-900K reservists in various states of readiness have only taken roughly 5K-7K losses. Combine this with their inability to gain air superiority, effectively use their armor, or supply their troops, and the Russians don't have the forces to guarantee a defense of the regions they've taken let alone go back on the offensive from a manpower standpoint.
I can't see a draft going well for Putin, a longer unpopular war will just further weaken his position. Especially with more conscripts "Putin won't use in Ukraine"
Last edited by FlameOn; 04-01-2022 at 07:06 AM.
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In 2015, speaking to the UN, Putin said “in a world view peace is an unstable situation “. He is more comfortable with war and will not stop until he has all Russian speaking people under his rule.
I've always really liked Sakhalin. It's a decently sized island north of Japan, and has been pretty much ignored by Russia for it's entire existence. Once Russia is bankrupt, I'd be all over Canada throwing some Rubles to Russia, and make it our fourth territory.
Sakhalin has giant offshore oil and gas producing fields though. The Russians wouldn't sell it, it's too lucrative.
We already have plenty of northern islands we ignore of our own anyway.
Pretty sure Russians never expected an attack in their borders so never set up AA/MANPADs. Good this will tie up more resources within Russia they can't use in Ukraine.
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If Russians want to continue this war they will need more manpower because right now they are actually outnumbered in Ukraine. Russians sent in roughly 200K troops for this offensive but have lost 40K-50K at this point in casualties by most estimates. The Ukrainians have around 200K in regular forces, 100K in paramilitary forces, and 800-900K reservists in various states of readiness have only taken roughly 5K-7K losses. Combine this with their inability to gain air superiority, effectively use their armor, or supply their troops, and the Russians don't have the forces to guarantee a defense of the regions they've taken let alone go back on the offensive from a manpower standpoint.
I can't see a draft going well for Putin, a longer unpopular war will just further weaken his position. Especially with more conscripts "Putin won't use in Ukraine"
The Russian conscription semi annual cycle is April 1st. So at that time a ton of conscripts who were reaching the end of their 1 year of service are usually allowed to leave. I would expect that the Russian military will put a hold on that because I think annual 100,000 or more conscripts reach the end of their cycle. But in a time of war Russia has the option to extend their period.
As well, they are usually bringing in the new conscripts on April 1st and the first 6 months is their basic training. It would be interesting to know how many draftees simply failed to show up, or had a "note from their doctor, priest etc". Also it would be interesting to note how many of the I think October inductees had their basic training cut short so they could be sent to the meat grinder.
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So a foreign military just successfully attacked Russia on their own soil, is that the first time since WWII? From a moral and propaganda standpoint that is huge for Ukraine
I love the double speak. Some are using this to say that Ukraine is denying responsibility and that it's a false flag but that's not what he's saying at all.
It's putting the ball in Putin's court for him and his cronies to explain why their oil depot is suddenly on fire in Russian territory. I love it (make sure to watch till the last second)
Last edited by Firebot; 04-01-2022 at 09:17 AM.
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Thank you HW for the update. Just crazy, crazy stuff. Glad to hear the in-laws are still okay for now. Hope your MIL and the whole family can tough it out, I pray none of us ever have an ordeal like that in our lives. Unimaginable.
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No large exhaust trail from the missile or visible explosion from prior to hit, high chance that's Starstreak.
Compare video above with traditional non-Starstreak type MANPADs like Stingers, Iglas, or Piorans Ukrainians have a lot of
These things scare the Russians as there are no countermeasures to these from the Russian air force. Can't fool them since they are laser based so chaff and flares don't work, neither do radar jammers. Can't outrun them since they fly at mach 4, faster than any of Russian fixed wing or choppers or Stingers. Laser dazzlers and active protection systems that might work are too heavy to mount on aircraft.
Real shame the Russians used up all their guided munitions in Syria and the first month of the Ukrainian war so they gotta fly real low now to attack, right into range of infantry hiding in the woods waiting with their Starstreaks.
Last edited by FlameOn; 04-01-2022 at 10:52 PM.
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The Russian conscription semi annual cycle is April 1st. So at that time a ton of conscripts who were reaching the end of their 1 year of service are usually allowed to leave. I would expect that the Russian military will put a hold on that because I think annual 100,000 or more conscripts reach the end of their cycle. But in a time of war Russia has the option to extend their period.
As well, they are usually bringing in the new conscripts on April 1st and the first 6 months is their basic training. It would be interesting to know how many draftees simply failed to show up, or had a "note from their doctor, priest etc". Also it would be interesting to note how many of the I think October inductees had their basic training cut short so they could be sent to the meat grinder.
So this new Putin draft is just part of the normal annual cycle and CNN is just reporting nothing? Or is this on top of the regular cycle?
Was it a smart idea to attack Russian soil? I mean, I get it, but given the propaganda their country faces and the psychotic dick measuring of Putin, you’d think it would just provoke a response that seems more justified to the Russian people.
Was it a smart idea to attack Russian soil? I mean, I get it, but given the propaganda their country faces and the psychotic dick measuring of Putin, you’d think it would just provoke a response that seems more justified to the Russian people.
I think it's brilliant. Give the Russian people something that contradicts the propaganda and amplify the re-supply problems their forces are already having.
