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Old 03-29-2022, 10:08 AM   #521
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Faceoffs are an odd hole in Backlund's game. Most defensive minded centres are good at them.
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Old 03-29-2022, 10:14 AM   #522
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Since arriving in CGY:

CF%: 58.6
SF%: 57.35
GF%: 60
xGF%: 57.78
SCF%: 55.22
HDCF%: 53.57

The numbers certainly echo Bingo’s post. Jarnkrok has stabilized the top-9.

If Monahan can come back into the line-up and help form a 4th line that can keep its head above water at even strength, it’s going to be very very difficult for teams to exploit any of our lines during the playoffs. Key is going to be to give Monahan wingers that can do that. Hopefully Looch gets some rest down the stretch and then can dial it back up to his early-season performance.
Yeah a team like the Oilers were interesting to watch.

They'd like to get McDavid or Draisaitl out against the Flames fourth line, but they instead chose to play the fourth lines head to head for the most part (or accepted that with Calgary with the last change).

Almost seemed like the Oilers didn't trust their depth enough to have their fourth line out against any one else which played into Sutter getting overlap against the two Oiler centers.

Kassian was 33% CF% and 30% xGF% that night.

Meanwhile the fourth line held their own.
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Old 03-29-2022, 10:23 AM   #523
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Wouldn’t mind seeing Jarnkrok on the wing for a game or 2 before the season is over just to know what we have in him. Think he played mostly at wing in Seattle and had a lot of offensive success. Who knows, maybe his game translates even better at that position; certainly worth a shot.
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Old 03-29-2022, 10:26 AM   #524
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Wouldn’t mind seeing Jarnkrok on the wing for a game or 2 before the season is over just to know what we have in him. Think he played mostly at wing in Seattle and had a lot of offensive success. Who knows, maybe his game translates even better at that position; certainly worth a shot.
Played with Gourde. Legit Q: who is most like Gourde here? Backlund?

ETA: That might help the faceoff stats on the shutdown line if Jarnkrok takes RHS draws.
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Old 03-29-2022, 10:28 AM   #525
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He's been good and has had a few good scoring chances. Really no complaints from me. He is due for a goal and while he isn't an every day scorer, he tends to come through in the clutch.
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Old 03-29-2022, 10:29 AM   #526
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If Nurse doesn't kick the rebound from Tanev's shot into his own net on Saturday, the puck would have landed on Jarnkrok's stick for a likely easy tap-in.
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Old 03-29-2022, 10:32 AM   #527
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I'd leave him at center ... it's too important to what Sutter is trying to accomplish. The offence will come.

He seems to have had some bad luck, numbers support that as he's the 4th highest iGx60 on the team (individual expected goals per 60 minutes of ice time).

Tkachuk 1.11
Coleman 1.05
Mangiapane 0.97
Jarnkrok 0.96
Lindholm 0.91
Gaudreau 0.86
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Old 03-29-2022, 10:35 AM   #528
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If Nurse doesn't kick the rebound from Tanev's shot into his own net on Saturday, the puck would have landed on Jarnkrok's stick for a likely easy tap-in.
I think you are on to something. Nurse prevented a huge scoring chance by doing that. 3-D chess in action!
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Old 03-29-2022, 10:37 AM   #529
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Jarnkrok has been awesome.

Also SUPER unlucky around the net.
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Old 03-29-2022, 10:44 AM   #530
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I get a chuckle out of say McDavid getting hemmed in and it's constantly an intense Swedish guy that's pissing him off.

Must get frustrating.
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Old 03-29-2022, 10:53 AM   #531
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Yeah a team like the Oilers were interesting to watch.

They'd like to get McDavid or Draisaitl out against the Flames fourth line, but they instead chose to play the fourth lines head to head for the most part (or accepted that with Calgary with the last change).

Almost seemed like the Oilers didn't trust their depth enough to have their fourth line out against any one else which played into Sutter getting overlap against the two Oiler centers.

Kassian was 33% CF% and 30% xGF% that night.

Meanwhile the fourth line held their own.
I wasn't as confident in the 4th line last game. Lucic - Carpenter - Lewis had an xGoals % of 17.2% against Edmonton. Granted, it's more of a factor of them not generating any offense, and the Draisaitl goal against on the misplay by Zadorov.
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Old 03-29-2022, 10:54 AM   #532
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I'm definitely happy so far. He was brought in to be a .5ppg energy guy in the bottom six. So far he's been pretty unlucky, which is the only reason he only has 1 point in 5 games. Once probability evens out over more games, he'll have .5 ppg.
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Old 03-29-2022, 11:03 AM   #533
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I wasn't as confident in the 4th line last game. Lucic - Carpenter - Lewis had an xGoals % of 17.2% against Edmonton. Granted, it's more of a factor of them not generating any offense, and the Draisaitl goal against on the misplay by Zadorov.
Yeah their expected goals against was decent ... that is if you think a line that doesn't generate anything offensively gets a "win" for not being too bad in their own zone.

But my point was about how Edmonton didn't like their own fourth line enough to attack Calgary's fourth line, not that Calgary's fourth line was solid.
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Old 03-29-2022, 11:03 AM   #534
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Faceoffs are an odd hole in Backlund's game. Most defensive minded centres are good at them.
A hole? How so?

Whats wrong with Backlunds faceoffs?
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Old 03-29-2022, 11:10 AM   #535
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A hole? How so?

Whats wrong with Backlunds faceoffs?
He's a long tenured center that has a career FO% of below 50%. He's been 50% this season but ideally your shutdown center is better than average on faceoffs as possession is key when you are trying to shut down a scoring line.
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Old 03-29-2022, 11:15 AM   #536
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A hole? How so?

Whats wrong with Backlunds faceoffs?
Just that it's a strength for most elite shutdown centres I can think of historically, and Backlund historically is below 50% and usually at least third among regular centres on the team. Typically Lindholm and Monahan have been higher.
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Old 03-29-2022, 11:26 AM   #537
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He's a long tenured center that has a career FO% of below 50%. He's been 50% this season but ideally your shutdown center is better than average on faceoffs as possession is key when you are trying to shut down a scoring line.
I just did a quick look. 50.7% win rate.

Among NHL forwards with 600+ draws (Backlund has taken 975), that ranks him 47th best in the league this season.

If that is considered a "hole in his game" I don't know what to tell you about the rest of the centers in the league.
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Old 03-29-2022, 11:36 AM   #538
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I just did a quick look. 50.7% win rate.

Among NHL forwards with 600+ draws (Backlund has taken 975), that ranks him 47th best in the league this season.

If that is considered a "hole in his game" I don't know what to tell you about the rest of the centers in the league.
This season. Now do career. And look at who is above him this year as far as "defensive centres". Bergeron is 62.7%. Horvat 56.7. Kopitar 57.3. ROR 55.5. Danault 53.8. etc.

Last year was actually a banner year for him at 52%. He's dropped off.
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Old 03-29-2022, 11:43 AM   #539
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I like Backlund in his role, but faceoffs are certainly not a strength. Additionally he gets thrown out more than most (my view) and that would put a weaker guy in the draw in his place which isn't good either.

Then there's the argument about how important face offs are.

Bottom line his xGF% splits catch all of this. If he was getting worked because of losing draws his numbers would reflect that.
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Old 03-29-2022, 11:57 AM   #540
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I like Backlund in his role, but faceoffs are certainly not a strength. Additionally he gets thrown out more than most (my view) and that would put a weaker guy in the draw in his place which isn't good either.

Then there's the argument about how important face offs are.

Bottom line his xGF% splits catch all of this. If he was getting worked because of losing draws his numbers would reflect that.
He obviously isn't getting worked. But Sutter is a guy who loves him some faceoff wins.
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