Matthew Tkachuk & Johnny Gaudreau Signing Watch Thread

[blankall]

Originally Posted by jg13

As much as it hurts I would move Mangiapane as the return will be extremely nice and pencil Pelletier into that spot for next season.

Also a good chance that Mangiapane just demands too much money. He's having a great season, but he's the kind of player, that if we paid him $7million/year and he started showing any kind of regression he'd quickly become the whipping boy.

I love Mangiapane, but don't think he's worth top dollar. A trade and overpay/sign has Montreal written all over it.

Obviously, if the Flames can work some cap magic and get Mangiapane signed at a reasonable contract, that's preferable, but I'm not sure it can happen.

[Dude Where's Makar?]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I expect it will be Magiapane. He will be a difficult signing, after some prior tough negotiations. I think Taffoli was brought in to replace him. Plus, he value is very high, and they can recoup some draft picks.

Yes, for all those points mentioned above. If negotiations are getting crazy, you could probably get a 1st + 2nd or 1st + good prospect.

It also helps that we potentially have an internal replacement in Pelletier who would make make next to league minimum for a while.

Hopefully we can just make everyone fit and magically only lose Monahan and Lucic.

[sa226]

Yeah Mangiapane is a tough one. You can't deny hes a very good player and you can't hold your nose at 30 goals.

When I watch him, I'm not sure that I see the level of player that may command a kings ransom. This is not a criticism of the player, its more of a reaction to what his agent said a couple of months ago about getting the most amount of money he can now, on a shorter term contract.

Whats he going to be looking for? Backlund money? Toffoli money? I would say thats fair. If the demands start to touch the mid to upper 6mil, into 7 mil I think you have to say "Thanks but no thanks."

Love the player and he's a great story but if the Flames want to contend again next year and a Mangiapane contract gets in the way of a Tkachuk and Gaudreau contract, you pretty much have to say buh bye.

Silver lining is that if Pelletier can slot in, and/or Dube continues to develop their roles can be expanded, and the assets returned in a Mangiapane trade would be pretty decent.

[FanIn80]

I think "Toffoli money" would be fair for Mangiapane.

[Funkhouser]

Originally Posted by FanIn80

I think "Toffoli money" would be fair for Mangiapane.

That would be a steal for Mangiapane. Toffoli is signed to what many consider as a bargain, and signed during the unknowns of the COVID cap while he was older than Mangiapane. As far as I am concerned, Toffoli's contract is an outlier, not the standard.

If I were Mangiapane, I would be looking for between 5.75-6.75M

[Harry Lime]

If you end up selling Mangiapane, then Tkachuk and Gaudreau are getting serious term and money.

It's definitely going to be interesting. If you end up selling Tkachuk, there is a domino effect that potentially happens. My personal interest would be in St. Louis, who would pay a premium. Tarasenko (retained), Perunovich and picks would keep Calgary's window open, as healthy Tarasenko is a monster. A Perunovich/Mackie tandem on the bottom pairing LD (with a re-signed Gudbranson) makes for a very interesting conversation the following year as to who stays, and also makes Valimaki available in a corresponding trade this offseason.

Even if you manage to move Lucic and Monahan, to keep all of the four big RFAs/UFAs, they will all have to buy into a home town discount. Tre's going to earn his money this offseason, one way or the other.

[prizefighterinferno]

Originally Posted by Harry Lime

If you end up selling Mangiapane, then Tkachuk and Gaudreau are getting serious term and money.

It's definitely going to be interesting. If you end up selling Tkachuk, there is a domino effect that potentially happens. My personal interest would be in St. Louis, who would pay a premium. Tarasenko (retained), Perunovich and picks would keep Calgary's window open, as healthy Tarasenko is a monster. A Perunovich/Mackie tandem on the bottom pairing LD (with a re-signed Gudbranson) makes for a very interesting conversation the following year as to who stays, and also makes Valimaki available in a corresponding trade this offseason.

Even if you manage to move Lucic and Monahan, to keep all of the four big RFAs/UFAs, they will all have to buy into a home town discount. Tre's going to earn his money this offseason, one way or the other.

Actually think you might be able to pry Kyrou out. Defensive game is not where team wants it to be and doesn’t typically get a ton of ice time for a guy with his boxcars. Still young and cheap for one more season though (both reasons why you’d hesitate if you’re the Blues of course) but don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility of giving up a piece like Tkachuk.

Hoping for twin 8x10ish deals for the boys but every game seems to make the number creep up right now. Not the worst problem to have!

[Classic_Sniper]

I think a lot of posts here are nuts. I’m absolutely re-signing Mangiapane even if it costs up to $7M. I would hate to do it all things considered, but he’s the driver of the secondary scoring for this team. We’re talking about a 30+ goal scorer who doesn’t even see PP1 time or any minutes on the top line.

I think it’s fair to assume that he’d easily hit 40 this season if he had a chance on PP1 and I suspect at some point in his career, he will get a chance there as he has all the tools. If it was me, I’m pretty much trading what’s necessary to keep the core intact and Mangiapane is part of my core. If Kylington needs to be squeezed for one season to create space, then so be it.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

It’s the going rate these days.

If the Flames cannot win with two players making that much, there will be many teams who will shortly be in similar straights.

No team has signed a contract with an AAV over $10 million since the start of COVID. The last of those contracts were signed in the summer of 2019.

GMs are willing to throw around that kind of money when they expect the cap to continue rising. When everyone knows the cap is going to be approximately flat for years to come, the calculations change.

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Classic_Sniper

I think a lot of posts here are nuts. I’m absolutely re-signing Mangiapane even if it costs up to $7M. I would hate to do it all things considered, but he’s the driver of the secondary scoring for this team. We’re talking about a 30+ goal scorer who doesn’t even see PP1 time or any minutes on the top line.

I think it’s fair to assume that he’d easily hit 40 this season if he had a chance on PP1 and I suspect at some point in his career, he will get a chance there as he has all the tools. If it was me, I’m pretty much trading what’s necessary to keep the core intact and Mangiapane is part of my core. If Kylington needs to be squeezed for one season to create space, then so be it.

Magiapane is the not the driver of the offence, he is the finisher.

No one dislikes him, but many feel that this may well be his career year, and don't want to pay in the future for that.

A core piece likely has to go. Who do you think it should be, if not Mangiapane?

[The Cobra]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

No team has signed a contract with an AAV over $10 million since the start of COVID. The last of those contracts were signed in the summer of 2019.

GMs are willing to throw around that kind of money when they expect the cap to continue rising. When everyone knows the cap is going to be approximately flat for years to come, the calculations change.

I'm not sure the cap is going to be flat "for years to come".

So, what do you do if Johnny says he needs "$11M per season to stay". Do you let him walk?

[ComixZone]

Originally Posted by Jay Random

No team has signed a contract with an AAV over $10 million since the start of COVID. The last of those contracts were signed in the summer of 2019.

GMs are willing to throw around that kind of money when they expect the cap to continue rising. When everyone knows the cap is going to be approximately flat for years to come, the calculations change.

That's just because no one has been worth that sort of money.

Look at free agents in 2020 - Alex Pietrangelo was the best free agent, $8.8MAAV ($61.6M total).

Look at free agents in 2021 - Dougie Hamilton was the best free agent, $9M AAV ($63M total).

Look at free agents in 2019 - Artemi Panarin was the best free agent, $11.64M.

Johnny (and Tkachuk) are in the Panarin range - they're a tier above Pietrangelo/Hamilton.

The big deal with Panarin though was his age - he was under 28 when he hit free agency. That will have an impact on Johnny's number - he likely won't hit Panarin's rate, however - the cap has also gone up a smidge - so that may negate the age difference.

The point about pre/post-COVID doesn't track for me. It hasn't been what has shaped the market in my eyes - the talent available has done that.

Gaudreau is the best player since Panarin and before that Tavares to hit free agency. Those are your comparable contracts for Johnny. Tavares got $77M over 7 years, Panarin got $81.5M over 7 years. Johnny will get $80M easily in free agency (over 7 years), and our advantage comes in with that 8th year - perhaps lower the cap hit on an AAV basis but still deliver the $80M+ required to sign him.

8 years, with somewhere between $80M and $85M being the total value of the contract is how I see this coming together for Johnny. It also wouldn't surprise me to see Matthew Tkachuk sign a deal with a similar/identical AAV for a shorter period of time so that he gets back to free agency for 28 years old.

[Snuffleupagus]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

So, what do you do if Johnny says he needs "$11M per season to stay". Do you let him walk?

If you let him walk Chucky likely walks next year as well, $11M is not totally
unreasonable, If it's 8 years the last couple might not be great but by then hopefully the cap is well north of $100m.

[Jay Random]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I'm not sure the cap is going to be flat "for years to come".

The cap isn't rising appreciably until the players pay back that $1 billion in escrow that they owe the owners.

[Lanny_McDonald]

My strategy for these team going forward, with the expected cap to be $82.5M.

1) Trade Monahan and Valimaki to Ottawa for Connor Brown. $3.6M cap hit, $4.325M cap savings.
2) Trade Backlund to whoever for futures and draft picks. $5.35M cap savings.
3) Trade Lucic to Seattle for future considerations after his signing bonus is paid. $5.25M cap savings.
4) Sign Gaudreau to an 8 year $72M extension ($12M, $12M, $11M, $10M, $8M, $7M, $6M, $6M). $9M cap hit.
5) Sign Mangiapane to a 6 year $36M extension. $6M cap hit.
6) Sign Kylington to a 4 year, $14M extension. $3.5M cap hit.
7) Sign Jarnkrok to a 4 year $11M extension. $2.75M cap hit.
8) Sign Gudbranson to a 3 year, $8.25M extension. $2.75M cap hit.
9) Trade Tkachuk at the draft, to St. Louis for 2022 1st, Robert Thomas, and Scott Perunovich.
10) Dip into the UFA pool and sign Filip Forsberg to a 7 year $52.5M deal. $7.5M cap hit.
11) Sign Ruzicka ($1M, one-way) and Perunovich ($1.5M one year, then work on long-term deal).

Gaudreau ($9M)-Lindholm ($4.85M)-Forsberg ($7.5M)
Mangiapane ($6M)-Thomas ($2.8M)-Coleman ($4.9M)
Jarnkrok($2.75M)-Ruzicka ($1M)-Toffoli ($4.25M)
Pelletier ($.863M)-Dube ($2.3M)-Brown ($3.6M)
Duehr ($.828M)

Hanifin ($4.95M)-Anderson ($4.55M)
Kylington ($4M)-Tanev ($4.5M)
Perunovich ($1.5M)-Gudbranson ($2.75M)
Mackey ($.913M)

Markstrom ($6M)-Vlader ($.75M)

$80.554M cap hit. Still some room for the RFAs to get their longer term deals the following summer.

[Goriders]

Brouwer is off the books after this season as well.

The big question in my mind is what are they doing with Monahan.

Other potential is that guys would be willing to take less money to stay on a team that has a shot at a cup for the next few years.

[transplant99]

Originally Posted by The Cobra

I'm not sure the cap is going to be flat "for years to come".

So, what do you do if Johnny says he needs "$11M per season to stay". Do you let him walk?

No idea how its going to rise very much anytime soon....the players owe the owners somewhere in the neighborhood of a billion dollars right now.

They can keep trying to kick the can down the road but at some point they are going to pay the piper and that will entirely see flat caps and possibly even minimum decreases to get it done.

[FanIn80]

Originally Posted by Lanny_McDonald

My strategy for these team going forward, with the expected cap to be $82.5M.

1) Trade Monahan and Valimaki to Ottawa for Connor Brown. $3.6M cap hit, $4.325M cap savings.
2) Trade Backlund to whoever for futures and draft picks. $5.35M cap savings.
3) Trade Lucic to Seattle for future considerations after his signing bonus is paid. $5.25M cap savings.
4) Sign Gaudreau to an 8 year $72M extension ($12M, $12M, $11M, $10M, $8M, $7M, $6M, $6M). $9M cap hit.
5) Sign Mangiapane to a 6 year $36M extension. $6M cap hit.
6) Sign Kylington to a 4 year, $14M extension. $3.5M cap hit.
7) Sign Jarnkrok to a 4 year $11M extension. $2.75M cap hit.
8) Sign Gudbranson to a 3 year, $8.25M extension. $2.75M cap hit.
9) Trade Tkachuk at the draft, to St. Louis for 2022 1st, Robert Thomas, and Scott Perunovich.
10) Dip into the UFA pool and sign Filip Forsberg to a 7 year $52.5M deal. $7.5M cap hit.
11) Sign Ruzicka ($1M, one-way) and Perunovich ($1.5M one year, then work on long-term deal).

Gaudreau ($9M)-Lindholm ($4.85M)-Forsberg ($7.5M)
Mangiapane ($6M)-Thomas ($2.8M)-Coleman ($4.9M)
Jarnkrok($2.75M)-Ruzicka ($1M)-Toffoli ($4.25M)
Pelletier ($.863M)-Dube ($2.3M)-Brown ($3.6M)
Duehr ($.828M)

Hanifin ($4.95M)-Anderson ($4.55M)
Kylington ($4M)-Tanev ($4.5M)
Perunovich ($1.5M)-Gudbranson ($2.75M)
Mackey ($.913M)

Markstrom ($6M)-Vlader ($.75M)

$80.554M cap hit. Still some room for the RFAs to get their longer term deals the following summer.

Not trying to start anything, I'm just not convinced this team is anywhere near as good without Tkachuk. I know there's a cap, and $$$ have to come from somewhere - I just think we need to sign both Johnny and Tkachuk and then figure the rest out (as impossible at that seems to be).

[Kipper_3434]

Gotta think the 8 year 84m contract would be a pretty tempting offer for Gaudreau. 10.5 AAV could be workable

[FanIn80]

For whatever it's worth, I see Johnny being closer to Crosby's "pay me less and spend the rest on an overall better roster" than McDavid's "pay me what I'm worth, I don't care if we can't afford anyone else."